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I posted a couple weeks ago that with possibly only one or two events left when the IDMC met, they would or should have ended for futility if neither of the best and worst case scenarios could still meet the criteria for success. They didn't. Good to see an analysis along those lines from someone so knowledgeable!
Haven't seen any of your input on the CVM thread for some time now, they were consistently accurate.
Well, I managed to get the warrants mixed up, I thought the 16.75 ones expired this month. Just as well I read often and post rarely, lol. Here's to another pins and needles week under our belts.
Thanks -
I don't know what the exact requirement is so just wondering if that was a possible play or not. Makes sense there are some rules about it of course, and good point about cash received vs dilution.
If there's no legal obligation to release the data as soon as you are notified of the outcome, and the outcome is positive, wouldn't you wait until after May 28 when those 800,000 + warrants expire? I would.
Also the milestone payments from Chiesi, unless you considered that part of the royalty stream.
I'll stand pat re: my post # 31176 this morning - if the IDMC didn't declare futility with only one or two events to go out of 298, it's extremely unlikely those two events would sink the ship - this is a good bet.
The IDMC meets and sees the unblinded data, and ends trials for futility if the target results cannot be achieved. Given the short time between the last meeting and the news that the last event had finally occurred, we surely must have been down to waiting for one or two events. If those events were to occur in the SOC cadre but not result in the MK + SOC cadre having the at least the 10% better survival, continuing the trial would be futile. That's one or two events out of 298. I'm no statistician, but what's the likelihood that the final event or two occurring in the MK + SOC cadre instead, would then result in what would have been a 10% or greater survival for the MK group over SOC coming in at what, 9 + % ?
I'm guessing it was that prospectus, which I read but is probably above my pay grade. I read it as just setting up any institutional investors to market shares in an offering at a negotiated price instead of just selling shares on the open market - but you won't hurt my feelings if you point out I don't know what I'm talking about, lol. Happy to hear a better take. Felt pretty good after yesterdays action, expected that trend to continue.
(1) The Awarded Shares (or a portion of the shares) will only be earned based upon the achievement of certain significant milestones leading to the
commercialization of CEL-SCI’s Multikine technology or significant increases in the market price of CEL-SCI’s common shares.
Upon the achievement of the following performance goals, a percentage of the Awarded Shares will be earned by the Grantees and will no longer be
subject to being forfeited to CEL-SCI.
i. Upon either (a) the enrollment of 350 patients in the Phase 3 head and neck cancer study or (b) the closing price of a share of CEL-SCI’s common
stock on the primary exchange on which such common stock is then traded exceeds $87.50 for ten consecutive trading days, each Grantee shall
earn 25% of the Awarded Shares.
ii. Upon either (a) the full enrollment of patients in the Phase 3 head and neck cancer study or (b) the start of a pivotal clinical trial for Multikine (the
"Proprietary Technology") in a disease indication other than head and neck cancer or (c) the closing price of a share of CEL-SCI’s common stock
on the primary exchange on which the common stock is then traded exceeds $150.00 for ten consecutive trading days, each Grantee will earn
50% of the Awarded Shares, less any of the Awarded Shares previously earned.
iii. Upon either (a) the end of the Phase 3 head and neck cancer study or any other pivotal study involving CEL-SCI’s proprietary technology, or (b)
the closing price of a share of CEL-SCI’s common stock on the primary exchange on which the common stock is then traded exceeds $225.00 for
ten consecutive trading days, each Grantee will earn 75% of the Awarded Shares, less any of the Awarded Shares previously earned.
12
EDGAR Stream is a copyright of Issuer Direct Corporation, all rights reserved.
iv. Upon either (a) the filing of the first marketing application for any pharmaceutical based upon CEL-SCI’s proprietary technology in the USA,
Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, or Australia, or (b) the closing price of a share of CEL-SCI’s common stock on the primary
exchange on which the common stock is then traded exceeds $300.00 for ten consecutive trading days, each Grantee will earn 100% of the
Awarded Shares, less any of the Awarded Shares previously earned.
Seems like it says further down they would need to file a prospectus to sell their shares?
My gut sense of the May 15 date was the likelihood that it was about the release of the data and not a guess of when 298 was going to have occurred. I was very heartened to see the IDMC report, wasn't sure that would even happen. Fingers crossed and incense burning! All my black cats are hiding out from me, lol.
Yes, he did. It's a close race to the bottom of the barrel, and sadly they are not the only horses in the race. There are good governors of either stripe, thankfully, doing their best for their citizens despite resistance from above and below.
I live in the same Florida county that "IT" maintains a residence in, and we have virtually no testing here. People are pretty good about following the rules, and we hunkered down a long time ago. Know of only 1 fatality so far and a couple known infections. I can't wait to visit my friends in North Georgia and get my nails done, a new tattoo, a massage, and go bowling. At least FLA doesn't have as clueless a Governor as they do. Not quite. Great news on CVM!
My backyard was 80 miles from Dorian, which sat there in the Bahamas for days with 200 MPH winds. When a hurricane might come our way I do all the prep well in advance, and nothing makes me happier than having done all that work for "nothing" when the storm gives us a pass. If we're lucky enough to get a best case scenario with this "storm" instead of a worst case, I'll be just as happy to have gone to ground and prepped early for "nothing." Stay safe everyone.
Green, I didn't panic and sell either, sold a few things and bought a few hundred shares, but I hope to God I never have that Sophie's Choice again. Holy Shit of a day for CVM longs.
I need to find a less stressful activity, like juggling live hand grenades with the pins out. whew.
It's been made very clear that when the requisite 298 events have occurred that it will take some time to carefully analyze and release the data, but any reason they couldn't announce "All 298 events have been reported and while the data must be processed and compiled, we can say that XXX events occurred in the control group and only XX events in the Multikine group. Have a nice day."
A very satisfying day for long term holders of CVM. It's a good feeling to be invested in a stock that not only could change the lives of it's investors, but more important, possibly change the lives of people suffering from this terrible disease. Here's to us all being on the side of the angels for once.
Sorry, Cel-Sci
I'm probably missing something, but wouldn't it make sense, as in dollars and cents, for them to just buy Protalix for a lot less than all those milestone payments and royalties? You were on the money about Cei-Sci needing a small capital raise, so I certainly give credence to your statement that Protalix will most likely need to do the same.
If taking a loss on a short position has the same tax benefits as taking a loss on a long position, I would think we'd see some of that action the rest of December and some upward price action due to that. That current high borrowing cost would also be a motivating factor.
I entered a 100 share market order at 15:59;48 that sold for $8.43 - must have blinked, never saw that transaction below 8!
I'm probably missing something, but if we now have 148 million share issued and 350 authorized, that's about 2.4 times the outstanding shares. R/S of 1/15, 9.8 million outstanding and 120 authorized, or over 12 times the number of outstanding shares that could be issued compared to the present situation. Isn't that a greater potential for dilution than at present?
It stands to reason if you exercised a $5 warrant you would sell and take your profit, otherwise why not just hold it. Would certainly put pressure on the pps.
One item I don't see AF style bloggers and shorts that post here address, is why an outfit running a "scam" for years would commit significant funds to setting up a production facility to produce a drug that was "bogus" and would never be produced. All that money could have been paid out in exorbitant salaries instead. Go CVM
I grew up in Boca - a light pink golf shirt and plaid pants.
Can't think of any reason other than intentionally driving the price down - a 40% drop when the company has money in the bank and FDA submission in the works? Who was buying that boatload of shares dirt cheap, apart from my several thousand? I made a few cents when it went from .70 to $1.40 a few years ago, went back in and been averaging down ever since.
yes, a hundred here and there.
Up to 3.37 due to picking up some shares in the 7's yesterday - offset by my .88 cent shares at least.
I agree it was a buying opportunity, added a few hundred as low as 7.03. It did briefly make a new high today before the shortfest. Guess I need to adjust my share count on the spreadsheet, lol
I made a few bucks buying at .70 and selling at 1.24 when it went to 1.40 a few years ago. Why this is still below a buck I have no clue.
I would like my buy at .288 to be the LOW - this avg. down business is getting just a little bit old, lol. Whatever the many negatives this thing has REVENUE unlike hundreds of stocks that probably never will and this share price does not in any way reflect that.
I feel your pain. I needed 28 post R/S which is why I bought all the way down to .99 to put me even if it gets to 8 and change. I did not feel very smart at .99 but at that point there wasn't much left to lose, lol. No predicting where this goes next, at least the damn revenue went up. If they mentioned the UK I missed that - wasn't there a hundred procedures done there?
I'd say at this point the R/S was already baked in the cake as far as share price.
The overwhelming sentiment that the R/S will be 1/350 and happen immediately and then the stock will tank is probably dead on, but given that most everyone who believes that has likely sold already, won't it be interesting if they don't R/S when expected, and or choose a different ratio? Or dump some positive news?
The first thing a BK court appointed receiver would see is modest revenue coming in and extravagant compensation to mgmt. going out, which he would end immediately. I would think the last thing the Simpson Gang desires.
Gee, just kick in .03 cents a share and send it to Delcath, and poof! No more debt!
If they released any good news, shareholders that have yet to vote would be more inclined to vote No. Bad news would have the opposite effect, and since they want the R/S so they can sell more stock and vote themselves raises, they must be out of bad news. If they had any, they'd be blasting it up and down the street. If the German press conference was negative, we'd know by now.
As I've stated before, Bayer is the one with a competing treatment that is having less than expected effectiveness
The PR lists two patients by name, obviously living to tell the tale - one would think they are patients that responded well to the treatment.