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Our OS from yesterday's presentation, rounded up, is 100M. $500M in revenue equates to $5/share. At yesterday's close the S&P 500 Price/Sales Ratio average was 2.38. 2.38 x $5 = $11.90 PPS. Oh yeah, I can wait!
One of the many points he made in the presentation this morning that really caught my attention was his stated desire to go the NYSE route rather than with NASDAQ. Among other things, to get on the NYSE requires a stock to be trading at $4 per share. Whereas NASDAQ is $3 per share. These guys are serious and they are going to make this happen. What will your stash be worth when we’re at $4 per share? I can wait.
Anybody bailing this morning is obviously not listening to this presentation. This is going to be a monster. And if you’re selling right now you’ll look back on this as being the biggest mistake in your investing life.
We're building a juggernaut here. $3 is the gateway to NASDAQ. I think that's the target they all have their eyes on.
I'll see your $1, and raise it to $3 in a year from now!
Gapping!!
Waiting to see if INTL gets back on the bid this morning, and if they do, where they put it.
Just to play around with the numbers a little bit more. If you add in that stated revenue estimate from the PPE division of $480K/quarter, $1.9M/year, just that with the $5M from Utility Management Corp would bring revenue up to $6.9M. If instead of 84.4M shares you use 75M and instead os=f a 2.24 PSR you use a PSR=3, then PPS should be around: $6.9M / 75M shares = .092 revenue/share x 3 = .276 PPS.
So maybe a quarter right now as we sit here today. And we're not even taking into account here the future revenues from all the other divisions!
Not sure what the OS will end up reducing to, but for now, using today's total of 84.4M shares the $5M in revenue from Utility Management Corp. alone represents a PPS of around .13, using this morning's latest S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio of 2.24. ($5M / 84.4M shares = .059 revenue/share x 2.24 = .13 PPS)
If you use a lower OS number, and a slightly higher Price to Sales ratio, the PPS gets even better!
As far as the "comprehensive update" goes, this is all I care about:
Yeah, what gets frustrating is at this point we can all see what it would take to get there, and it's not that unreasonable. We have 4 cafes, soon to be 5, and a sixth on the horizon in Charlotte. Distribution is waking up, and who knows about GRO3, but that could be a sleeper. We've got all the makings of $50M+ , actually I think it's going to take closer to $75M before we see a $1 PPS, but I won't quibble. We need those financials, lose the STOP sign, and get uplisted to QB/QX. That's the biggest drag on us right now.
September 28 is the due date. Late filing with an extension is October 13.
September 28th
You could be right. Let's just say for the sake of argument the revenue for FYE 2018 turns out to be around $15M. That's roughly .03 per share (rounding off the OS @ 500M shares) As of today, the S&P 500 average PSR - price to sales (revenue) ratio - is 2.2. .03 * 2.2 = .066. Pretty close to what our PPS is right now.
On the other hand, what are the 1Q/2Q/3Q and here in a week the FYE 2019 numbers going to show? Who knows, but maybe $20M-$25M? Also 2.2 is the average PSR, but for a growth stage company with good revenue prospects in the pipeline, the PSR might be closer to 6 or 7 in the near term. That said, the numbers could easily justify a PPS of something closer to .25-.30 with some good 2019 numbers. We'll see, but I'm more a glass half full sort of person and am still optimistic we see .30 by 9/30 and .50 by 12/31.
That Haier Group license agreement is huge. Potential revenue could be $73M annually, just from that alone. Exciting times definitely on the horizon.
Excellent! Picked me up enough shares this morning to make it worth my while when it happens.
What are the chances that $.075 52-week high gets retested sometime before the end of the year?
I've always thought through this whole process that it's too bad that OTC Markets doesn't have a status category to indicate that a company is undergoing an audit process and that's the reason for the delay in reporting financials. It would have to be verified that the company is in an audit process so companies couldn't take advantage of it. But instead of that message we see "Warning! This company may not be making material information publicly available", we could instead see something indicating it's currently in the process of an audit. And instead of getting a STOP sign let companies in this category keep their current information status. I think Roger at least tried working with them when he put out that Disclosure Statement back on 10/21/2018, but to no avail. Wonder if there's a way to broach the subject with OTC Markets to see if that's something they may want to think about for the future?
She's at UCSC perhaps? I'm from Santa Cruz and was invested back in the day when this went +$2.00. Got out and made a bundle but then all the negative bs started up and I kind of lost interest. Noticed today it's 11 cents, with a STOP sign no less. Back then it was still QB. A lots happened I guess. Would you buy at 11 cents?
C'mon Roger, 2018 audited financials tomorrow morning would be a nice way to kick off the Memorial Day weekend! I still say, though, that if we get the FYE 2018 audited financials and the 1Q/2Q/3Q 2019 quarterlies by mid-June, we'll be OK. FYE 2019 financials won't be due until September 28 and if we're all caught up by June 30, the stop sign will be long gone and we will have been uplisted to QB well beforehand. By the way, I sprung for 71K right at the close today. Not sure who bought the rest. But nice green close nonetheless.
Right. I should have probably replaced RBSM in my post with "(fill in the blank)". The only thing I would say about that, though, is we don't know the whole story. If it turns out the problem this whole time has been on our end and not with RBSM, then changing auditors without correcting our accounting issues won't make much of a difference next time around either.
So, here's my latest rationalization of where we're at. As long as the 2018 audited financials, the 1Q/2Q/3Q quarterlies for 2019, the removal of the stop sign, and the uplist to QB all happen by June 30 as far as I'm concerned we'd be all caught up and good to go. The 3 quarterlies, removal of the stop sign, and the uplist to QB should all happen pretty quick. So if the 2018 audited financials get released by early to mid-June I think we can make it. I'd prefer we give ourselves some leeway and get it all done by this time next month. But June 30 would be OK by me. Then it becomes an issue as to whether or not RBSM can get our 2019 year end done by September 28 (or October 13 with an extension).
Look at AMFE's company profile on OTC Markets. Under Service Providers. Don't take my word for it. Listed as being the Accounting/Auditing Firm - RBSM LLC.
I think you'd find, and somebody can correct me if I'm wrong here, and a lawyer after a review of the documents I think would tell you, that "the audit" that everyone refers to here that was contracted with RBSM to perform is actually done and has been filed back on 9/13/2018. The services they contracted to provide us, according to the audit engagement letter from 9/7/2017 were for audited financials for FYE 2016 & 2017, and to do a review of the unaudited 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q quarterlies for FY2018. They've done all that and IMO "the audit" is done.
RBSM is at this point in time our accounting/auditing service provider. They are responsible for our ongoing annual financial audits going forward. What's not done as we sit here today, and what's holding everything up at this point in getting rid of the stop sign and allowing us to uplist to the QB tier is the FY 2018 annual and the FY 2019 1Q and 2Q quarterlies. But those aren't part of "the audit". Those are RBSM's current ongoing responsibilities to us as part of being our financial accounting and auditing service provider. So, bottom line, doesn't make a whole lot of difference. Except that if you get a lawyer involved things will begin to get very technical about what was meant by "the audit" and what was actually contracted for and been provided.
OK, got it. Thanks. I'll resend a copy of my email to that address as well.
So, technically what I asked him to consider releasing were numbers for 1Q and 2Q 2019. Audited financials for 2019 are still a few months off and I figured if any corrections need to be made they still have time to do that. I acknowledged that any 4Q numbers for 2018, while RBSM is still doing the audit, could be problematic. But if there was any way of giving us some sort of 4Q numbers, that he consider that, too. But not expecting anything related to 2018 at this point until the audit is released.
I emailed him at: rmortimer@amfiltech.com
If that's not a good email for him, let me know.
I emailed him before that last post, asking that at minimum he figure out a way he could release the backlogged quarterlies or some facsimile of what would be in the quarterlies even if it's technically "unofficial", if there's no 2018 audited financials from RBSM by Monday morning. I'm not necessarily expecting a reply, but we'll see. I would hope, even if he doesn't reply, that he at least consider it.
So, count me and my 1.2M+ shares in the camp where patience has finally run out. Sunday marks the end of the 2019 3Q. Monday, April 1, if we still have no 2018 10K I think a concerted effort needs to be lobbied to get at a minimum all the backlogged 10Qs released. Even if it means they have to be redone later when an audited 10K is done. Current shareholders (and potential shareholders) need some sort of updated information as to how this company is doing financially. Continuing to speculate about how we're doing is for the birds. I want to see some numbers even if they're "unofficial". If Roger still insists on not releasing the backlogged 10Qs, I think at that point, we need to seriously explore what steps can be taken to replace him. This sucks that it has come down to this, where we're all at each others throats. Something needs to happen pretty damn fast to restore shareholder confidence.
You're welcome. Just to follow up. I don't know if there's a way, maybe somebody else does, to find out how many individuals actually own stock in AMFE or any other company for that matter. I think that number on OTC Markets comes from the Transfer Agent and their records only reflect how many registered owners there are. Which would be all those that are registered in street name to all the individual brokers and the ones here and there that are registered directly to individuals that have requested their shares not be issued in street name.
The reason the number of shareholders appears so low is because most people's stock is held in their broker's account in "street name". In other words, everybody who owns AMFE stock with E*Trade is counted as 1 shareholder. Unless, you've requested that your shares be issued in your name and sent to you in the form of a stock certificate. Then your shares are in your name and not E*Trades's "street name". Unless your broker has an office nearby, though, holding your stock in certificate form can be a pain if you ever want to sell it in a hurry.
Right. Good point.
I looked up somewhere how it should be interpreted when someone uses the phrase “in the coming weeks’. There’s no hard and fast rule, but the general rule of thumb is to take it as meaning ‘in about 3 weeks”. So, just another reason why we should be real close. Tomorrow, by the way, also marks 6 months since the FY2016-2017 financials came out. Those 2 years took RBSM one year plus 6 days to complete (if you start counting from the auditor’s engagement letter) or an average of about 6 months per year being audited.
Have to amend my earlier post a little bit. The current street view is as of June 2018 and shows the location as being "Sol Art". If you navigate, though, closer and actually go inside, the view changes to what it looked like in May 2013 as "American Apparel".
You can navigate inside that clothing store that's there now and really picture what it might look like remodeled. From the outside it kinda fools you as to the size. But once you're inside it's really pretty good size. Maybe even a little bit bigger than Tempe?
A week from today marks 6 months that RBSM has been working on the 2018 audit (assuming they didn't start on it until the 2016/2017 audit was completed and filed). From the audit engagement letter (9/7/2017) until the 2016/2017 audit was filed (9/13/2018) it took them one year + 6 days. So, taking the average, 6 months per each year audited has always been a number that has stuck out in my mind. Add to that Roger's last tweets on 2/26 I have to believe we are really, really close.
Tomorrow or Tuesday. But 94% by March 31, 99% by April 15.
Kudos for that response. Glad I asked the question.
With the current OS of 495M, how much revenue is required to reasonably justify a share price of say, $1? Anybody have a calculation? And what will it take to get us to that level of revenue?
I have a very strong feeling we're within a week. Back on 1/25 I predicted we'd see the filing yesterday, based on applying some statistical analysis that centered around significance given to March 14, the 6 month date that RBSM will have been working on the FY2018 audit. Remember, from the date of the audit engagement letter 9/7/2017 until the filing of the FY 2016/2017 audits on 9/13/2018, it took them 1 year + 6 days to do 2 years worth of audits. So, the 6 month date for the FY2018 audit I figured could bear some extra weight. Anyway, keeping the significance of the March 14 date and assigning other probabilities to dates around it and factoring in today's tweets, I come up with the filing date now occurring sometime within the next 7 days. We'll see!