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Are you sure it's not the planet formerly known as Pluto? Now we wait:)
Well said highwayman. Great pictorial for those who are having trouble creating logical arguments lately.
Great information abeta, as always. Very much appreciated.
I never said there wouldn't be interim readout of data. Check the PRs. Data is being analyzed concurrently. If a surrogate endpoint were to be designated or drop dead date for efficacy, the data would be locked before trial completion and sent to a third party for analysis.
Maybe you guys should reread what can constitute a surrogate endpoint and a marker for accelerated approval. The primary endpoint is not the one and only point in a trial where accelerated approval or other fast track methods of approval can be used to expedite the vaccine to the patient.
https://www.fda.gov/ForPatients/Approvals/Fast/ucm405447.htm
Hahahaha. Ill tell you what. If you think I have no idea about the trial, statistical significance, etc. I'm no going to waste my breath on showing you why I'm right. Just know AA isn't just tied to a specific endpoint. It also applies to the secondary as well. Especially when data is continuously collected and analyzed. NWBO CanT unblinking the trial and why would they want to and compromise the results? I'll tell you what, I'll bet you top line data is released before Sep 1. That's a very conservative estimation in my opinion. If I'm wrong, I will write you the most beautiful apology letter the world has seen. And if I'm right, I'll expect the same. There are only a handful of folks on this board who has researched the minutiae more than me, so I feel confident. Deal?
Top line data can be released if trial is stopped for efficacy and AA. That means that it will occur in 2017 as we are already past PFS and statistical significance will be reached by a June. That still fulfills the wording in the PR.
Thanks TC. That is my position as well. IMO it's going to take a combination of a very unambiguously positive PR (or successively compounding news releases) and a fruitful conclusion to the internal/ external investigations in order to escape the grasp of years of illegal shorting and reach our realized potential. My hope is that news is just around the corner and we will start to see the tides shift in our favor in the next weeks to come. Thanks for the reply and GL to you and yours.
Senti/TC,
I posted the other evening inquiring about the rumored number of naked shorts that seems to be the general consensus these days. With the information regarding our recent funding, it seems that we will continue to tread water while the shorts keep pumping more into the pool. In your opinion, is there any foreseeable way of breaking free? Or will they keep us from our potential despite positive news? While this stock is obviously high risk, I wonder if there is a high reward left in sight. The shorts are the one variable that we have a tough time accounting for. It is particularly even more difficult to plan for what doesn't exist. It wont change my opinion or outlook, as I knew this a long time ago when getting in, just curious for a fresh take outside of my usual circle. Yours and TC's opinions are ones I value in this matter.
Best-
Coco
First of all, thanks to beartrap, abeta, senti, RK, Know Fear, and all the other folks who've worked together to provide data regarding the trial, estimated revenue, etc. I hope to have something to share with the group soon, but the elephant in the room for calculating purposes is the amount of rumored naked shorts out there.
After talking with various fellow investors and folks who know way more about the subject than I, I have gotten estimates from 60-150M naked shorts. So, as we know they have still been shorting in recent weeks, while I'm sure that others are fluidly covering. Problem is that unless you're in the business of tallying NWBO shorts, it's tough to estimate how many could be out there.
So for those of you that believe that there are quite a number out there, have you heard any estimates in the last few weeks? The last number I was given was 147M, but that was approximately 4 months ago. Yes, almost the same number of actual shares that were available around the same time. Any of you folks have number you've heard recently? Just a caveat, I know that they're estimates, but I'd like to use a reliably conservative number for the purposes of my calculations involving the "short squeeze of the century." Haha. GLTA and thanks in advance!
Agreed. Things are shaping up nicely to align with abeta's June estimated timeline.
Senti, thanks for laying it out beautifully as always. While I understand that there's some bitterness and resentment toward management about how things were handled in the past, I am having a hard time believing that many people on our board have done their DD. The numbers that you and abeta post are for the most conservative median OS based on the number of PFS events and last enrollees into the trial. Our median OS will be higher. That's a huge win and will be most likely a number greater than 30% that have exceeded 24 months OS. Secondly, for the savvy investors in the group, you should know dilution is a natural part of the game. My personal belief is that this will be used to ramp up manufacturing in preparation for FDA approval of DCVAX-L - at a minimum. They don't require that level of financing for regular operations. Dig into the reports. Secondly, the payment schedule further shows confidence in the company's ability to raise those funds in a short amount of time with large consequences for not doing so. I don't believe R/S is or ever will be in the picture from this point forward. Yes, I'm optimistic. But that only has come after spending my last years' worth of free time dedicated to the understanding of the science and financials, analyzing them, and grounding myself in factually based information. The end will justify the means and the end is near folks. GLTA
With the Yonemura case a topic of conversation recently, I thought I'd remind our friends here about the link between Yonemura and Deep Capture that Stillwell88 shared with us exactly a month ago. I believed it then, and I believe it now, that there is more to this case than initially meets the eye.
A few months ago I revisited the DeepCapture piece about Dendreon to find what the doctors mentioned in the piece were now doing and if any had possible links to NWBO. The only one I could find with any possible tie was Dr. Eric Small who works at UCSF:
"Dr. Eric J. Small is co-director of the Urologic Cancer Service and director of Urologic Oncology Research. His patient care and research focus is prostate cancer, immunotherapy and the mechanisms of resistance to standard therapies. He is a member of several professional medical societies including the American Society of Clinical Oncology and the American Urological Association. He is a member of the Therapy Consortium of The Prostate Cancer Foundation, the largest private source of prostate cancer research funding, and on the board of directors of the American Prostate Cancer Foundation."
https://urology.ucsf.edu/people/eric-small
I found this interesting as the leading plaintiff in Yonemura vs. NWBO is one Christine Yonemura who is a Ambulatory Care Clinical Kidney Transplant RN at UCSF Medical Center.
These are the mentions of Dr. Small in the DeepCapture piece:
"With the exception of big pharma, there are only a few biotech firms that have received significant publicity for developing treatments for prostate cancer. One of these companies, Cougar Biotechnology, was, until last month, controlled by this Lindsay Rosenwald, who aside from running D.H. Blair in cahoots with people tied to the Mafia and Milken’s former national sales managers, is also a close friend of Milken himself. While Rosenwald was in control, Cougar Biotechnology’s scientific advisory board included four individuals affiliated with Milken’s Prostate Cancer Foundation – Dr. Eric Small, Dr. Michael Carducci, Dr. Philip Kantoff, and Dr. Howard Scher."
"The Prostate Cancer Foundation continued: “The PCF first provided funding to Dr. Eric Small...to support clinical research around measuring immune responses in patients treated with Provenge...”
"As for Dr. Small, he too was on the advisory board of Cougar Biotechnology. The Prostate Cancer Foundation did indeed give him funding to measure immune responses in patients treated with Provenge, but it is not at all clear that Milken’s “philanthropic” outfit was keen to see Dr. Small’s study yield positive results. When the study did yield positive results, Dr. Scher, the chairman of the Prostate Cancer Foundation’s Therapeutic Consortium (referred to in the above press release as the “Clinical Therapy Consortium”), spun them as negative results."
It is also interesting that Michael Milken is one of the largest backers of Juno Therapeutics. One can draw their own conclusions about these links but they certainly strike me as odd.
Happy Librarian-
Let me see if I can break this down in a way that you will understand what you just tried to say....that may be a challenge in and of itself.
Your argument:
Premise: Big Pharm is unresponsive to Trump
Supporting Premise: They took down Trump's picture at one VA center
Premise: New approval process won't be implemented in time to save NWBO
Supporting premise: Trump did not mention NWBO in meeting with Big Pharm
Thesis: One VA clinic took down Trump's picture. That means federal healthcare doesn't respond to him, so the FDA will not implement new regulation in a timely fashion. Because of this, NWBO will go bankrupt.
Now it's your chore to find me the logical flow in the argument. I can't find it. Once you are able to do that, I will show you an argument to the contrary that obliterates it.
That's not a bad deal. If it goes 100+, I'll buy one too. Create our own club.
Good Luck as well. I'll be here as long as it takes. See you at the finish line.
I know ??, but this year is the one where we know we are close AND have reached PFS events and possibly OS by then. Stay positive, this is our year. GLTA.
Exactly. I like it all senti. This is gearing up to be a promising year.
Haha. Exactly! Boom, NWBO! Lol
They also have booth 10161
That's the late breaking deadline BTW
March 16th is the submission deadline
You're right, but in the interest of scientific presentations and conferences there is additional latitude given on the OTC. I'll find the rule and post it when I can.
If I remember correctly, the advantage of the OTC is that positive news can be held from public if presented at a scientific conference or similar gathering. Negative results and news must be PR'd within 3 business days. I'm going to go with positive news, but what, would be speculating.
Senti's post reminded me that there's about a two week gap between payment and the meetings. Isn't there also a mid-May meeting that we are looking to? Can anyone refresh this old brain of mine?
Great post Chow. I can't predict the future either, but we've been dead on the last few PRs. Let's hope our luck continues. See you in the buy column this week.
Mr Chow. How many days in your estimation? I'm guessing we have around 80.
Are you saying that a six figure investment in NWBO, representing 100% of your portfolio is bad? Oh no.....I wish someone would've told me that years ago. Too late now I guess. I'll just ride it out till June when they go BK I guess.
Pip, I think that most people that were invested in other companies outside of biotech would agree with you. However, if you look at the Post article that I posted a few nights ago (I promise that there are a plethora more on the subject), NWBO faces very little gains - in fact, many times losses - on the release of what should be positive news. Many would argue that short-term financing to cover real debt could be considered faith in the company, the product, and good news. However, here we are at .35. Not that I am complaining, it makes it cheaper for when I buy more this week. This company and this sector are so heavily manipulated, in many cases illegally, that it is difficult to get ahead...much less stay ahead. Let's cross our fingers that the good news forthcoming is enough to put that idea in the rear view permanently.
Thanks Tasadana. I have sent a message, and will be awaiting reply. I'll let you know what I make out. GLTA, and the near future bodes well for the NWBO longs.
I would like to formally submit my application for a moderator for the NWBO board. Can anyone guide me through the process?
My pleasure hope4patients. I need the reminder too occasionally. Especially this close to the finish line.
Dan, I can't argue with you - you're right. But in the absence of those likely scenarios that would communicate her and the company's absolute resolve in the results, I choose to take an alternative view. Experiences while watching the manipulation of other biotechs - most notably JUNO and the like - she has opted for silence until everything is finalized. I believe in an effort to reduce AF hitpieces and naked/legal shorting prior to the good news, she has opted to PR only facts regarding the Ph 3. I would assume her hope is that regular legal investments will trump the other methods that big pharm and subsequent hedge funding use to drive the sentiment lower. It's just my theory, but it's one I believe in. Patience is key for us investors who understand and believe in the science and efficacy. Let's hope our queen is well protected by her knights. Best wishes and looking forward to the near future.
I enjoy your posts abeta. And I, like you, know those numbers are conservative. Thanks and keep it up.
I just want to post this 2014 Post article as a reminder to our fellow investors who may be new to NWBO or the sector. This article shows what we've been battling and will continue to battle in the weeks to come - after great news is released. We have a plan, and we will beat them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/northwest-biotherapeutics-stock-woes-highlight-the-harm-of-short-sales/2014/09/26/78b99b0a-4507-11e4-b47c-f5889e061e5f_story.html?utm_term=.e86127cd22a1
Welcome phantom...also a friend of Mr Chow's. Sorry to hear of your losses. I've lost two grandparents and my mother to it as well, and agree wholeheartedly. We are all in this together and are very optimistic about the near future!
My thoughts are with you and yours. My mother and maternal grandparents suffered the exact same fate. I truly understand your pain and wish you only comfort in the times ahead.
Brilliant post, iwasadiver. Needed to be said and few could have said it better. Well done.
Well said Barunuuk. I believe you are right and Ph 3 news soon is going to be the only thing that makes a dramatic change is PPS.
Excellent Observation Mr. Chow! I believe that it was stopped at the Ph3 line, and the partnership for Prostate wasn't annotated the same way. I notice the website has recently underwent some housekeeping changes as well.
I sure hope that this means what I think that it does. I'll do my DD and keep you posted.