Happy Thanksgiving to all!

And in the spirit of the incessant and ongoing arguments that we see daily, here's a link to a Monty Python classic which pretty well summarizes about 80% of our daily discussions.
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Thanks for responses.
Funny thing, stepped away to grab a kolache and when I returned, the color problem is no longer present.
Subject lines now appear as they should.

Question for the Board
Since about mid-day yesterday, something has changed in my user experience.

Formerly, when I clicked on and read a message, the color changed on the subject line so I knew that I’d read the message. If I stepped away, I could come back and identify the next unread message and continue from there.

Now, there is no difference in how the subject appears and all appear to be unread.

This is occurring on both my IPhone and my desktop.

Is anyone else experiencing this problem?

I watch the last few minutes of trading action closely each day. At 15 minutes before the close, I was sure they'd close it at $10.99 just to show us that they could.
See this time and time again.

I still recall the case described below as a reason for concern over drug approvals/rejections.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-fda-chemist-sentenced-60-months-prison-insider-trading

Bill

McMagyar:

I hope I live long enough to see the day that Adam F. is reduced to writing reviews for vitamin supplements.

Bill

Sorry, I misspoke on the Annual Meeting.

I intended to refer to the earnings update set for February 9.

Looking at the company web site, can not find where they have scheduled the annual meeting as yet.

Bill

Shareholder Meeting Preparation

Not sure how much has been done in the past in preparing for the Shareholder Meeting but for this one it needs to be “all hands on deck”.

Dr. Missling and others should be prepared to answer some pointed, and perhaps “hostile”, questions during the Q&A session. The questions should be anticipated and responses vetted in advance to make sure they are adequately answered with no room left for “quibbling” by AF and others after the fact.

I’ll start with a couple:

“The recent PR of February 2 led to a lot of concern that had to be cleaned up later last week. What steps are being taken to make sure future announcements are reviewed and perfected before public release? Is there a need to engage more with our IR team and technical experts in preparing announcements?”

“Can you expand for the benefit of interested parties exactly what the sequence of events was in changing the endpoints which caused so much controversy? Were the changes suggested by non-domestic agencies and then run by the FDA? Exactly what part, if any, did the FDA play initially in making these changes?”

I’m sure there are others here who can suggest more and/or better than the two above. Hopefully, someone in IR is monitoring this board and can help the team prepare as completely as possible for the questions to come.

Bill

This mess shouldn’t have happened.

No, I’m not calling for Dr. Missling to be fired but the company needs to learn from this.

Missling has obviously been focused on the science which is his forte. The Board should have recognized this long before now and put in place a framework for managing communications while Missling pursues his primary duties.

In the future more focus on communications is mandatory. Realizing that we have few resources to devote to announcements is no excuse. You can go too far in the other direction and overdo the PR game as well. We don’t want a company that’s a “Louisiana leg hound”, constantly issuing almost daily newswires about near meaningless occurrences. As an investor, I’ve been burned more than once in the past by such overly-hyped companies.

What we do need is for the Board to designate someone to work closely with Investor Relations to identify significant events that will be of real interest to the investing public and institutions and make sure they are disclosed timely and accurately.

The Board owns this mess as much as Dr. Missling as they have allowed the organization to function as it has. This change can be done in a manner that will not antagonize Dr. Missling or make him feel his contribution is being minimized.

Surely, we have at least one director on the Board that has a background in business and can make helpful suggestions.

Bill

Better yet, invite AF to the next conference call when the next PR is released.

Promise him he can be first to ask questions.

See if he dares show his face. If he doesn't show, that will expose him for the fraud that he is.

Bill

I agree with you and Xena.

Based on your numbers of the frequency of broken bones in the general population, any such survey would be inconclusive.

It would be similar to the Monty Python theory that since wood floats and all witches float, all witches are made of wood.

Thank you for your response.

I'm not sold on the idea of broken bones leading to dementia, I'm just asking the question about a possible correlation.

In the examples I cited, all but one of the individuals were probably at least 40 years old at the time of their injuries. One was at least 60 to 65 years old.

However, the high school classmate who died at age 68 suffered several broken ribs and a ruptured spleen at age 18, shortly after we graduated from high school in the summer of 1963.

So, while I certainly agree with the idea that the elderly may suffer from a greater incidence of fractures due to weaker skeletal structure, that doesn't completely dispose of the question. As falconer said, the lack of vitamin D may lead to greater chance of broken bones. But once a break occurs, is there a greater chance of dementia among that population than among those who never suffered a fracture?

I still think it would be an easy question to pose to the test subjects and we could dispose of this matter if the results were not conclusive.

Falconer66a post on “Anavex as a New Aspirin”.

Falconer’s post calls to mind a question I raised on this board several months ago. I’d like to re-state my observations and question now.

Over many years, I have known several individuals who passed away with Alzheimer’s. I don’t know for sure that Alzheimer’s was the cause of death in each case but they were in fact diagnosed with the disease. What I find curious is that each of them (including a high school classmate, my paternal grandmother, the wife of a close friend and my wife’s maternal grandmother) all suffered a broken bone at some point in their life. My wife’s mother who is still alive has been diagnosed with mild Alzheimer’s and she suffered a broken wrist in the past as well.

This leads to my question. While all of these cases of Alzheimer’s and broken bones may be coincidental, I wonder if any study has ever been conducted to determine if there is a correlation between broken bones or other injuries and the incidence of Alzheimer’s. My thought is that since the body is supposed to be a “closed system”, perhaps the introduction of marrow or another substance into the blood stream may be a factor in upsetting the natural balance in the body.

If they have not already done so, it should be a fairly easy task for the physicians leading the trials for Anavex to study the medical histories of the trial participants to see if there is a noticeable incidence of broken bones in their backgrounds.

This leads back into falconer’s point. If doctors were able to discover such a correlation between fractures and Alzheimer’s, and once Anavex is proved to be an effective treatment for the disease, would it not make sense that physicians begin prescribing a formulation of Anavex to patients with fractures as a prophylaxis against Alzheimer’s in the future? Yet another possible revenue stream for our therapy.

Call went about as I expected except, as noted by many, there was no mention of the source of the mysterious $8 million.

Lots of ideas thrown out earlier about the money (dilution, Australian government, MJFF, etc.). The fact that it is being treated so mysteriously brings to mind one other possibility. Could be a private individual made a large contribution based on their understanding of the science and prospects for success. Very wealthy people have lost loved ones or have a loved one suffering from ALZ as well as everyday people. It could be that someone or a private foundation made a grant on the proviso that the source be kept confidential. Missling is certainly smart enough to run the traps among wealthy individuals who donate to worthwhile causes/companies. He may have caught the attention of a generous party at one of the many conferences he’s attended.

Just my two cents, adjusted for inflation.

Bill

Here is the IBD link. Sorry I'm not well versed as yet on how to navigate this message posting arrangement.

http://www.investors.com/news/technology/newbie-anavex-rockets-on-testing-deal-with-ibd-50-stock-biogen/

Anavex article in today's Investors Business Daily.

Sorry if posted earlier.
insert-text-here

What's next??

Maybe Anavex announces Phase 1 trials for a new therapy to help individuals who are "stuck on stupid".

That would really send the shorts scrambling.

Bill

With regard to “Fails to Deliver”.

In a prior life, I managed all securities clearance and safekeeping activities for a large bank. In that capacity, I dealt with the securities clearance departments of the large New York banks, one of which eventually bought out my own organization. During that time, I received a pretty good education on securities trades and settlements.

It is true that when securities are held in physical rather than book entry form, delays beyond the control of the settling banks or brokers may cause a fail to deliver, as outlined by pcguy.

As years have passed and people have gained more confidence in the Depository Trust Company and its affiliates, fewer securities are held in physical form. It still happens, however. Some people still subscribe to the adage, “If you don’t hold it and can’t touch it, you don’t own it”. However, these individuals tend to be more “buy and hold” owners and not prone to trading or flipping.

Since AVXL is a relatively new company and is subject to significant trading volume at times, I would doubt that there are many shares held in physical form. The only way to know for sure would be to have someone like Johnny Be Good who has contacts with the transfer agent to inquire about the number of shares and percentage of shares held in physical form. Only in that way could we even begin to have an idea of how many fails to deliver were due delays in handling physical certificates.

My own guess, and it’s only a guess, would be that most fails to deliver for AVXL stock are due to shorting, especially during periods of high activity. There may still be some certificate-related delays but probably not many.

Thank you, Ziggy.

Found the conference and below is the link to the program.

http://www.wpc2016.org/?page=2016Program&hhSearchTerms=%22cenci%22

Appears that Dr. Cenci who is leading our trial has a presentation in the Friday, September 23.
session:

1:30 - 3:00 PM

Parallel Session: Mechanisms of dyskinesia: New insights from animal models

Level of talk: Highly technical

Co-Chair: Celeste Napier (USA)
Co-Chair: Erwan Bézard (USA)
Lecture #1: Serotonergic mechanisms of dyskinesia
Speaker: Manolo Carta (Italy)
Lecture #2: Synaptic and signaling dysfunction leading to f LID
Speaker: Jim Surmeier (USA)
Lecture #3: Glutamatergic pathways as a target for the treatment of dyskinesias in Parkinson's disease
Speaker: M. Angela Cenci (Sweden)

Waiting for Update on Parkinson's Disease trials.

It's been a little over one year since AVXL was awarded a $500K grant by the Michael J. Fox Foundation to pursue preliminary trials of Anavex 2.73 as a possible therapy for Parkinson's. The initial trial was to be performed on animals and is being led by Dr. Angela Cenci-Nilsson of Lund University in Sweden.

“The development of disease-modifying therapies for Parkinson’s disease is the top priority of The Michael J. Fox Foundation and ANAVEX 2-73 presents a promising approach,” said Marco Baptista, PhD, Senior Associate Director of MJFF Research Programs. “Companies that receive funding from MJFF have scientifically compelling plans that hold obvious potential to impact our understanding of Parkinson’s and ultimately the development of improved treatments for people with the disease. To that end, we look forward to the results of the ANAVEX 2-73 study.”

“If successful, this study will accelerate the translation of preclinical findings into the very first clinical trial of ANAVEX 2-73 as a potential disease-modifying therapy for Parkinson’s disease,” said Angela Cenci, MD, PhD, and Professor at Lund University, where the study will be conducted. “We are in the fortunate position that ANAVEX 2-73 has already been tested for safety and tolerability in humans, and was found to be a good clinical drug candidate.”

Not being familiar with how long animal trials might take, does anyone have any idea when we might get an update on the progress to date? The grant was announced last August 10. Since the lab facilities would already exist at Lund U., would think they have something to show for their efforts by now. Depending upon progress, we might have another grant forthcoming to fund future trials.

Closing SEC Investigation Might Free Up Grant Money.

The closure of the SEC investigation might help free up grant money that could have been held up pending the outcome of the investigation.

Someone mentioned possible grant money from the Rett Syndrome organization. We already knew of the grant from the MJF Foundation. Depending upon progress to date with MJFF there might be more funding in the wings.

But, it's doubtful that any organization would have been willing to part with half a million or a million if there was a possibility those funds would be seized as part of an SEC enforcement penalty.

With the SEC cloud removed, we may hopefully see one or more groups now willing to part with some funds to help with later stage trials.

All JMHO.

Thanks for the update basparks79.

This is exactly how the company should be handling this as per my post earlier this week.

They can accomplish a lot working with their existing SEC contacts and don't need to call attention to themselves with public posturing. That would only give AF and his cohorts something else to rip at the company for.

Hoping there will be consequences for the actions of some over the past week.

Rocalinda:

Many thanks! Great update and summary.

With regard to SEC Involvement.

I think it’s fine if someone wants to file a complaint to SEC using the link that was provided. But, bear in mind, those go a “mailbox” along with hundreds of complaints each day from others who have lost money on a 100 share trade, didn’t get the $20. dividend they thought they were entitled to or did not get a timely response to a letter they sent to a company on their share registration.

Since we know that the SEC has been directly involved with AVXL management due to the subpoena announced earlier, it is safe to assume that there are AVXL managers and attorneys who have developed a rapport with one or more SEC examiners. Assuming the SEC has found no wrongdoing by AVXL in their review, our managers should have a high degree of credibility with their SEC contacts should they direct a concern to the SEC over how the stock has been traded in recent days.

I suggest that someone who has a contact with IR or the company’s attorneys get in touch with them and ask that they review the trading over the past few days. The SEC has forensic software and experts who can perform a review and come to some valid conclusions - either unethical acts by some, or, just the market working as it should.

It may be unreasonable or unseemly for Missling to come out publicly and condemn what we consider short and distort activities. Others who have done this in the past have gained some unwarranted notoriety.

It is not unreasonable for Missling or one of his designees to defend the company and its shareholders in private with the regulators. He owes that to his own staff and to his investors.

I make the above comments based on my own experience over 30 years ago in dealing with the SEC and the OCC after inappropriate suggestions were made regarding a bank with which I served as a senior officer. They found no wrongdoing and I developed a strong and friendly relationship with some individuals who thought they had been sent in to bury my employer.

Thanks for reading.

We can complain all we want.

I doubt we'd get any further with an SEC investigation than gold and sliver investors usually get when they complain over price fixing.

Those who invest in precious metals are already aware of the shady dealings in those markets. Whenever one or the other metals starts to rise beyond a certain cap limit, you will see thousands, and even tens of thousands, of trades dumped on the market in just a few minutes to drive the price down.

Famously, our own CFTC concluded a multi-year investigation into silver market manipulation in 2013 and concluded there was insufficient evidence to recommend charges against anyone. This after substantial evidence was gift wrapped for the CFTC. Sound vaguely familiar? Below is the link:

[url]https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/cftc-announces-it-is-closing-its-silver-manipulation-investigation.html
[/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]

Then just recently, Deutschebank agreed to settle with the Justice Department for silver price manipulation. How could that be after CFTC found everything was running so smoothly? Link is below:
[url]
www.reuters.com/article/us-deutschebank-settlement-silver-idUSKCN0XA2RU[/url][tag]insert-text-here[/tag]

Thanks, Xena. Pretty much what I thought.

To paraphrase George Carlin, "It's a big club and we ain't in it".

Xena, to your point.

On the day of the release, I was prepared to buy more shares in the event of positive news. That was still my intent after originally scanning the PR.

When I saw the almost immediate downturn after the release, that cooled my plans for that day. I'm sure a lot of other retails backed away from buying more as well.

Still, SOMEONE bought all those millions of shares that day. Other than wash trades, which I suspect accounted for some of the volume, who were the buyers?

Things that make you go hmmmm.

I agree with B60611. I was at the AVXL site a little before 12:00 CDT when the announcement was due. Nothing showed at 12:00 noon. I refreshed continuously over the next minute or so. Did not capture the actual time the announcement appeared because I had no idea at the time that this would even be a concern. It was for sure at least one minute past the hour before I saw the announcement appear.

Went to my Fidelity screen after I scanned the article. Did not interpret what I saw in that quick review that caused concern. It seemed the stock was stable for a minute and next thing I saw it was halted.

I expected the stock was halted for news or due to upward price explosion. Was amazed when I saw when trading resumed and the price plummeted. Trading halted one more time and then continued on down. The price went into the dumpster in no time.

I've only ever seen this happen one other time in 20 years since I started actively trading. That was with a stock that was almost halved based on a false rumor. When that trading resumed, the price recovered. Wish we had been that lucky.

With regard to Dr. Macfarlane, I doubt he had any evil intent.

I had actually been looking forward to today ever since I learned of the presentation schedule.

Reminds me of a couple of weeks last autumn when I was looking forward to games my NFL team would be playing. They got beat down, very bigly, in both games.

But, guess what? Most loyal fans didn’t give up and the team recovered and went on to win their division.

We got beat down today and may see more decline tomorrow. I’m still behind the AVXL team and am not giving up. I believe the results were good, just not stellar. We have a long way to go with several indications in the mix.

Stock had been fairly stable in the $7.40's and stood at about $7.32 at 13:01:04 right after release of poster. Then began a steady walk-down, largely on 100 share trades.

Three seconds later at 13:01:07, price was down to $7.05. Most were 100 share trades but a couple of large ones (10,980).

Still, are we to believe there were dozens or more of retails reading and understanding the poster and pulling a sell trigger for small change?

Not in my opinion.

Pleased with the results thus far.

Not a doctor or scientist but am impressed by the comments of those who understand the science and testing protocols.

It may be too soon to say that our therapies are a “cure”. That may never be proven. Patients who benefit from our therapies are still subject to dying from other causes. We may instead find over time that AVXL’s approach helps put Alzheimer’s “into remission”. There are many who have suffered diseases such as leukemia whose treatment led to the disease going into remission. I suppose that means the disease is still present but poses no immediate threat to survival. But, as noted above, the patient is still subject to dying from diabetes, cancer or heart disease.

Having an Alzheimer’s patient continue for another five-ten years with a reasonably satisfactory quality of life is a big win for them and their family, in emotional and financial terms. We can’t prolong life indefinitely. But, we can certainly improve it for millions if AVXL offers what we think it does.

I’d be satisfied with that if we can’t have a cure.

Your question wasn't directed to me but Fidelity shows 1,025,135 (or 1.03 as you showed).

I suspected two hours or more earlier that they'd close it right at $7.00.

Why? To show us that they CAN.

Can't have us getting too confident ahead of the news.

My first post on AVXL message board.

Have been in AVXL since August 2015. Began with a small position and have continued to add until it is now my single biggest holding. Was under water for almost all of the past 11 months so have been pleased with the recent price increase that put me back in the green.

My reason for commenting here is to share something that struck me over the past few days after the announcement of Dr. Missling’s new compensation package.

Much was made over the SEC investigation by the shorts and attorneys. Almost seven months have now passed with no news regarding the investigation. In my opinion, with Anavex being such a small company, any wrongdoing by anyone associated with the company would by now have been exposed. The new compensation package further bolsters my opinion. Would a board of directors take such a step and provide such a vote of confidence in Dr. Missling if, after seven months of SEC involvement, there was any hint that he was either directly or indirectly involved in any questionable practices or manipulations regarding the stock price? I don’t believe that they would.

Follow the board here closely and appreciate the studied opinions and research shared by so many of you.