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No doubt manipulation.. but the only reason it occurs is because the market buy/sell demand *permits* it to occur. Simply a wretched opportunistic endeavor that is done because it *can* be done in these instances.
An MM/algo manipulative endeavor couldn't take down GOOGL for 40% because there's always ample liquidity that the manipulators do not control and there's always eventual buying pressure to counter the effort. No so here.. it's happening because there are no buyers to counter, and will continue to occur until we hit zero or someone steps in to buy.
It's a wonder why early stage companies, let alone bio, in their right mind would ever willingly choose to go public.
Frustrated, but holding my ground.
While this rule would make it difficult for a retail short to deal with, it is completely irrelevant and inconsequential to any algo that has been programmed to work around it. All this rule does is force trading to algos on SSR days. Opposite effect than intended it sounds.
I do suspect that we'll see another large holder sold-out at next report (like we saw from Broadfin last qtr). We're in the last few weeks of FY17 and one tute or another might have decided to do some window dressing and chose ADXS to prune, given likely lack of critical milestones for this/next qtr.
IMO only.. best to you!
Thanks Reilly, and HER2?
Would like to understand the opinion of others that it is not for sale. Repeating my thoughts from previous post:
I also suspected from the PR that HER2 is on the block for sale or license (hand-off to MRK or AZN to move present efforts forward?). However, mpreorder's response to this idea was that ADXS dropped these due to poor data that I must have missed. To me, HER2 seems the best dressed and most separable franchise to sell off at this time. Proving out in canine via PETX (soon I hope), already had planned PhaseII with Childrens Oncology Group (candidate for IST), and MRK already with a site-agnostic HER2- approval.
Hi Reilly, I really cannot fathom any reason for a tute to outright short against their own long shares. Loan em all out and collect interest, yes, but shorting? What's the point? Something to do with shaking warrants loose?
On another topic, I also suspected from the PR that HER2 is on the block for sale or license (hand-off to MRK or AZN to move present efforts forward?). However, mpreorder's response to this idea was that ADXS dropped these due to poor data that I must have missed. To me, HER2 seems the best dressed and most separable franchise to sell off at this time. Proving out in canine via PETX (soon I hope), already had planned PhaseII with Childrens Oncology Group (candidate for IST), and MRK already with a site-agnostic HER2- approval.
Best to you!
Agreed on all points, Khaled.
As for HER2, I don't believe they dropped it because data were not good. I wonder if ADXS considered HER2 to be the best-dressed for near term licensing/sale? If considerable weight is placed on the canine-to-pediatric analogy (PETX) and given recent drug approval strategy that is patient genetic based (MRK) as opposed to cancer type based, then this makes HER2 look attractive, no?
Best to you!
Hi CAT,
Yeah, I had a very small position in CALA, sold out with a respectable % profit and was watching through their prolonged downturn trying to figure out when to get back in for the long haul.. but I didn't get back in because it just looked so awful there. Analyst targets at $1, funding required, no significant partners at the time and some talk that their drugs/mechanisms were bunk.
So.. I missed the big run-up in CALA because of negativity from all angles just prior.
Here in ADXS, I'm still barely green having averaged up over time, but I don't expect to stay green. I expect a similar atmosphere of complete woe, despair, and agony to settle in... just prior to the run-up, just like CALA and many others before it.
BTW, one common denominator between ADXS and CALA is.. you guessed it: Adage capital partners.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
FBG, I'm not saying DOC didn't egregiously share grab, I'm not saying he was ethical, I'm not saying he was science-savy, and I'm not saying he was correct to hold out everything for the home run shot, particularly in the face of bio/I-O headwinds over the last 1-2 years.
I *am* saying that DOC is quite possibly the reason your investment didn't go to zero years ago. MC was $60M when I invested about 1 year into his tenure... MC even in its currently depressed state is 4x that. SP has risen > 2x over this time.
But in the end, I want what you want. I want ADXS and their products to succeed, and I want patients to have a longer life because of that success.
Best to you FBG!
Hogwash.. 600M-900M is less than the total potential of their future milestone payments, let alone the real possibility of being in the EU market some time before those payments are realized. I will be *extremely* disappointed if the whole company goes for that amount.
If DoC was blocking anything, he was probably against selling off IP too early (as some folks think occurred with ADRO). But I agree that given potential headwinds in market, sector, or ADXS science progress.. we could all use some ROI and financial strength. If DOC was let go for standing in the way of something, I would wager that it was something along the lines of not selling out DUAL rights to BMY for big money and instead wound up with the no money deal (not counting free Opdivo).
Holding to the end, for better or worse.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Agreed.. I didn't mean to imply that investors day itself was the catalyst, but rather that investors day revelations/delivery were *perhaps* all symptoms of an increasing awareness in an AXAL shortcoming (leading to DUAL, and new collab path emphasizing DUAL in registrational P3). If there *were* such a shortcoming, then AIM2CERV becomes a critical timeline event that we need to get in front of.
If AIM2CERV were to disappoint, then we'd be in a very very much weaker position than ADRO was after their trial disappointment. They had tons of cash, tute holders from the IPO, and BP with skin in the game. If P3 trial disappointment happened to us without such financial strength, it would be devastating. This possibility would put the BoD and tutes at odds with DoC if he was still advocating "going alone".
As for Murphy, that CEO transition appeared to be slightly more well-thought-out and perhaps a bit more mutual. They also had a replacement CEO lined up, with transition period. That case feels to me to be more about needing a CEO who can execute now that they are in commercial phase. This one feels rushed, and "punitive".
Always great to converse with you, Reilly.. no arguments intended! I do hope you plan to remain for as long as it takes, as I plan to do.
Best to you!
Bomba
Hi Reilly!
Interesting times, yes? DOC's removal is clearly a referendum on the "go it alone" strategy, but I'm not sure he was let go because he was obstructing an imminent deal. To me, the catalyst for the shakeup is based in the revelations of ADXS-DUAL existence (based on "learnings" - which makes me nervous), forgoing continued partnership with AZN/AXAL in favor of BMY/DUAL, and the too-subtle manner in which these were revealed at investor day. It is too easy for investors/MMs/traders to construct a very negative narrative given the lack of a favorable narrative from the company.
Perhaps, ADXS board sees a need to monetize one or more constructs quickly (ala ADRO), as a hedge against the possibility of lackluster AIM2CERV results. This approach would be counter to "go it alone" and so DOC was removed... suggests that his cohorts with similar strategy might be in the crosshairs as well.
Humble rambling opinions from an eternal, but cautious, optimist.
Best to you Reilly, ADXS, and the investors!
I am not pleased.
Certainly the "share grabbing" will not stop, the RSU awards and option grants will not stop.. just substitute a new name and we'll be complaining about the same things.
I am not pleased because it is clear he was forced out: BoD prez saying "we wish him well in his future endeavors", is the tell. Since the BoD has no tute "activists" who may have applied pressure simply due to lagging SP/MC, then I can only presume he was forced out due a botched deal.. I fear we're far away from the EU market now.
Apologies for the venting, but I need some time to digest this.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Thanks, Iggy!
I'm certainly not intending to drum up more conspiracy theories :) But to be honest, I've never held a security that had separate publicly-traded warrants, and am therefore not familiar with how their existence could affect the common stock SP. Certainly we've all seen how large open interest in traditional options can influence SP on those pesky third-Fridays..
However, would you agree that, unlike common stock, the warrants carry the threat of being worthless should the SP be at or below $5 in Oct. 2018? That threat gets stronger as we approach expiry, no?
I'm therefore wondering if this move (and potentially future moves) is working another fear angle targeting warrant holders? Given the dramatic move, would warrant holders be more willing to trade out or exercise now or on the next run? Your observation of increased volume in warrants might suggest that this move has shaken some warrants loose.
By the way, as a Form-4 insider, would Adage be required to report ADXSW holdings, and if they did own warrants, would they count toward % ownership?
As always, thank you very much for the conversation my friend!
Correction to previous:
ADXS maintains nearly all of the approx. 3M outstanding warrants as "equity warrants". I had mistakenly said they are all "liability warrants".
Apologies!
Still wondering though how (if at all) warrant expiry is playing or will play into SP up/down pressure as we move through the next 1.5 years.
Best to you!
Question of curiosity here and a request for education:
We're a little less than 1.5 years from warrant expiration (Oct. 2018 with $5 strike). My understanding is that ADXS maintains outstanding warrants as a liability on the balance sheet, and includes outstanding warrants in the fully-diluted OS count. ADXS receives $5/warrant and issues shares as they are exercised.
How does the approaching warrant expiry factor into SP up/down pressure? Who stands the most to gain if the SP remains near or below the $5 warrant strike through Oct. 2018?
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Respectfully, I'm not yet with you on that.
DOC and team pulled ADXS back from certain death, IMHO. It's a long, long process to recover from the financial state and scientific development stagnation that ADXS was mired in.
That said, it is also very difficult to garner and maintain institutional interest for a company that was ever in such a state, and more-so for a company that was formed by reverse merger (Great Expectations). I do hope that those considerations are taken into account in future decisions.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Hi Iggy,
Certainly a plausible scenario. However, I feel like in the spectrum of plausible scenarios, it could also be a large entity(ies) retaliating against ADXS mgt for their historically large awards early this month, made possible by marginal proxy victory. I would not normally subscribe to such a theory, but you and I have seen retaliation occur (for different reasons) quite effectively in another security, no?
On the one hand, getting angry about management share grabs is pointless, because who cares how many shares they own if the final SP is $0? I see management greed for shares as a positive as long as I can accumulate along with them... which I have been doing.
On the other hand, if this is retaliation, then at some point this inflicted pain might alter management's strategy (don't want to upset your large investors, or turn off potential future large investors), or could result in one or more "activists" being voted onto the BOD.
Humble ramblings.. best to you Iggy!
There simply is not enough information/clarity to determine root cause for this downturn. Given our current state of knowledge (as non-insider retail investors), the range of plausible explanations span the spectrum from ruthless manipulative shakeout to some yet-undisclosed catastrophic failure. I have been averaging up into this downturn, just above water now, but will not be buying more until there is clarity.
That said, I am also not selling until such time that BO or BK appears inevitable.
Best to you all!
Thanks, Maple.. I stand corrected (as usual)!
Best to you!
The monthly buys are just a tad larger than usual.
Doesn't appear from the filings these are awards.. they seem to be voluntary purchases
As always, I'll defer to the board for corrections/clarifications.
Best to you!
$50M is just the ATM sales agreement with Cantor Fitz. $250M additional is referred to in the prospectus:
The registration statement contains:
? a base prospectus which covers the offering, issuance and sale by us of up to $250,000,000 in the aggregate of the securities identified above from time to time in one or more offerings; and
? a sales agreement prospectus covering the offering, issuance and sale by us of up to a maximum aggregate offering price of $50,000,000 of our common stock in an at-the-market offering that may be issued and sold under a sales agreement with Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
I can see no reason why ADXS needs $250M at this time, and I can certainly see no reason why they would issue $250M worth of shares at this price.
Best to you!
I must admit.. the AGEN trial failure has me disheartened. True they were going after notoriously-tough glioblastoma (brain cancer) indication, but still.. patient/tumor specific vaccine, appears to provide no additional benefit in combo trial.
Here's to ADXS starting a new trend of meaningful *successes* in clinical trials and improving patient outcomes.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Couple of immuno-oncology trial fails today:
ARGS and AGEN both had combo trials which were recommended for termination due to futility. Not showing statistically significant benefits vs. monotherapy.
Might see some sympathy moves in small cap IO companies. I guess if you're going to combo with an already efficacious drug, it's worth noting the risk that statistical significance is more difficult to achieve in these small sample phase I/II trails.
Best to ADXS and the shareholders!
I'm no expert, but it sounds like this is not a new offering, and does not represent any unexpected dilution. Rather the prospectus is:
1) a registration of existing shares for resale by certain stockholders (e.g., Dart)
2) a registration of shares that will be issued if currently outstanding warrants are exercised.
Remember the warrants have and always will represent a potential dilution. That's why warrants are included in shares outstanding statements. However, they only create dilution if/when they are exercised, and they will only be exercised if the SP is above the strike price. Some of those warrants have significantly higher strike prices than where we are now.
So institutional holders that received direct private placements and those that hold warrants are perhaps preparing for a sell-event should the SP rise.
My humble opinions.. all please feel free to correct/clarify.
Well said.. both of you!
Thank you kindly.. agreed!
ADXS lights up the target, checkpoint inhibitors take down tumor defenses, CAR-T sends in the killers.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Agreed, pitching!
AGEN has several checkpoint programs in Phase 1, a Prophage (-NEOish) GMB brain cancer vaccine in Phase 2, and infectious programs for shingles and malaria that are near market.
IMDZ has two cancer antigen-targeting in phase 2, one phase 1 and one pre-clinical. Also has a phase 2 infectious disease (RSV) candidate.
GNCA has no phase 3 assets and is still pre-clinical with personalized immuno-oncology product.
Above is sourced from the co's respective websites. I have no insight into these other vectors, efficacy/safety data, or the overall viability of any product relative to ADXS'. So while there are some personalized vaccine programs just a bit ahead of us, I am very much comfortable with where we stand relative to these examples, and am expecting great things from our HPV, PSA, Her2 franchises and am excited for the longer term future ADXS has laid out for -NEO and -HOT (as is AMGN, it appears!).
Best to you!
Agreed... I am not personally aware of personalized vaccines that are significantly beyond pre-clinical development. My point was that we should be grateful that ADXS management has been keeping their eye on the ball, recognizing the future direction of the dynamic space of personalized vaccines and developing new product candidates that represent state of the art.
As for those companies I mentioned in particular.. I wasn't at all pumping them and do not have detailed DD into their science (but I think AGEN is the farthest along of the three I mentioned). Welcome knowledgeable comments from those more scientifically oriented than I to elaborate :)
Best to you!
Hi Oakrock,
I've always been excited by personalized cancer vaccines and was very pleased when ADXS announced they would be pursuing such products in -NEO and -HOT. However, ADXS is not the only company pursuing personalized vaccines. There are several, but AGEN (Prophage like -NEO and AutoSynVax like -HOT), IMDZ(ZVex/GLAAS platform), GNCA (ATLAS platform) are three others that I'm aware of.
Remember, ADXS has been around for a long time, languishing under poor management (Moore era), poor capitalization, and some amount of doubt regarding the products safety/efficacy (cancer vaccines had long thought to be a lost cause, perhaps due to the one-size-fits-all approach that doesn't always translate from rats to humans). So in that context, ADXS-HPV, -PSA, -Her2 are essentially first-generation vaccines that are finally getting moved forward. They are worth moving forward of course and could bring tremendous value to ADXS, shareholders, and cancer patients.
But you can see that the speed of progress in pre-clinical scientific development dramatically outpaces the speed of progress in clinical trials. So as products are finally getting through multiple years of trials, there are already many potentially superior products in the pre-clinical pipeline. This puts companies like ADXS and tech acquisition companies like MRK, AZN, BMY, etc. in tough positions. Do we develop/buy older products that are already superseded by better ones in development?
IMO ADXS has done a great job playing catch-up since the Moore era. Now, ADXS has both aspects going for it: a first-gen phase3 asset that will stand alone commercially *and* second-gen in development that has already attracted a major collaborator. This is why I have a great deal more respect for the ADXS management team than some.
Sorry for the long, rambling post. Had to get some of that off my chest :) Best to you!
Normally, cancerous cells express non-self antigens that the immune system recognize as foreign, and therefore attacks and destroys. Cancer cells that turn deadly have "learned" to express mutated antigens, or neo-antigens, that the immune system recognizes as "mostly self" and therefore benign. This leaves the evading cancer cells to spread (metastasize) and eventually shut down organs causing death.
Vaccines like ADXS-HPV, for example, try to teach the immune system to attack cancer by presenting it with something it already knows how to destroy: listeria monocytogenes. However, ADXS' particular listeria has been weakened to be harmless, and has been engineered to express a largely generic form of the "self-like" antigen associated with HPV-related cancers, E7, I believe. The idea being that while attacking the known listeria invader (termed a vector), the immune system will also identify and remember to attack the self-like antigens from the listeria and seek out the cancer.
The problem with these vaccines is that "self-like" is as diverse as are genes from one person to the next. One size fits all, like ADXS-HPV -PSA, etc. are bound to be non-optimum in terms of efficacy because of the differences between the antigen in the vector and the particular antigens of the patient population (in a clinical trial for example). Here's where NEO and HOT come in, both of which involve packing the listeria vector with *multiple* self-like antigens:
-NEO is full-blown individualized in that a specific patient's tumor is biopsied, sequenced to identify the neo-antigens that particular cancer is presenting, and used to engineer a completely personalized listeria vector (ADXS-Obi10, for example).
-HOT is scaled back a bit in terms of personalization, in that there are a series of pre-engineered listeria vectors that present neo-antigens associated with person's more broad characterizations (phenotype).
Rambling but I hope it helps. Best to you!
Well, random decision by big fish plus the ensuing cascade of momentum flippers and a dash of worried shorts :)
Sure feels good to have a day like this now and then, though.
Guess we have to assume the latter (random decision by big fish) until we hear otherwise. Best to you!
Crcook, you have my best wishes for success in this investment and ADXS has my best wishes for success in their scientific achievements... which over time stand to create vast value measured not only in terms of wealth but in *human capital*. I'm a believer in immuno-oncology tech, particularly personalized and targeted therapies that ADXS is pursuing.
Fear of failure is not an excuse for failing to endeavor!
Hi FBG! Yes timing was good on this one, started at $2.50 (right after the summer 2014 dilution and RSU grab) and have averaged up on the subsequent pullbacks to present average of ~$5. However, the point is that I would/will be comfortable being down considerably, because I'm treating ADXS for what it is (and have allocated as such).. a very promising but highly speculative stock that I feel is better positioned than others in the space. Macro trends in biotech have been horrible for, what, a year and a half?.. that is a *long* time to spend watching an investment languish and it's very easy to attribute the pain to poor management in any particular company rather than overall sector pressure.
ADXS is now a revenue producing company by the way, with the AMGN deal and overtime could bring in nearly $500M over time. They are going for the long-ball, holding on to the IP for as long as possible.. not because it is easy, but because it will bring the highest market value in the long term (how long is the question/pain).
Best to you, FBG!
Thanks Reilly, good to see you too!
As you probably know about me by now, I'm cautious. I recognize that no matter how promising a company's future is, the present value of pre-revenue companies should only be assumed to be it's current liquidation value (which tends to drop over time during cash burn phase). This means no matter how low the SP goes, buyers are generally paying a premium.
That said, I do allocate some investment capital to speculative stocks. I track this allocation as ($spec *basis*)/($non-spec *present value*) <= 0.3. This lets me keep the winners and not chase losers and still maintain a good allocation
I'm in ADXS and adding as I can because I happen to believe that the potential is in fact enormous. Progress has been sound and steady, and unlike many others, feel that current management has been doing a good job keeping the cash balance up without un-reasonable dilution (I know I'm in the minority opinion here). MC has gone up from ~$60M to ~$300M or 400% while the SP has gone up ~$2.5 to ~$7 or almost 200% since my first investment over 2.5 years ago.
Too much info, I'm sure.. but it's good to talk with you again. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you!
Just bought a touch as a Christmas present to myself. My current overall allocations will allow me to buy little bits from time to time through the spring, unless the market tanks of course and then it's back to allocation maintenance :)
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Being a *cautious* optimist, I'm still left wondering if the dosing delay is related to safety/protocol wrangling.
However, like Iggy.. I feel there will be licencing deals coming for AXAL once it gets into PIII, paying partnership for -HOT, and paying partnership for infectious disease.
Feels like slow progress, I know.. we've been here what feels like a long time. But you'd have to agree that for a company that's decided to carry the ball as far as possible for handing off (selling out), things are steadily moving forward over the past 2 years. I'm content to hold.
Best to you!
Hi Phantom, my fairly uneducated opinion on what led to Silverman being on the board:
TPIV was trying to uplist to NASDAQ for quite some time, but in getting their finances in order, they realized they had to correct an accounting error (IMO) in that the warrants should have been classified as a liability rather than an asset, due to certain clauses in the warrant agreements (disclosed in an 8K 4/10/16). When classified as a liability, the warrants prevented TPIV from meeting NASQ listing requirements, resulting in significantly negative net shareholder equity.
So, they had to get all of the warrant holders to exercise and/or sign up to restructured warrant agreements such that the warrants could be classified as components of equity. They were able to accomplish this restructuring (8-K 8/11/2016 PIPE warrants), but it was clear that the warrant holders had some demands..
1) separate president and CEO positions, which they did in July by changing bylaws and appointing Bonfiglio (8-Ks on 7/15/2016 and 7/19/2016.
2) (IMO) Appoint a CFO, which they did in an 8-K on 8/25/2016 naming Loiacono
3) (IMO) Conditional acceptance of the amended warrant terms by Iroquois if they got a seat on the board: Silverman
All of these shenanigans set back the NASQ uplisting application by 6 months or so, but once these terms were agreed to and implemented, then TPIV began uplisting process: secondary offering, reverse split, uplist.
Corrections/clarifications welcome from all.. best to you!
I hear ya, shaker..
Best to you!
We uplisted to get the credibility and visibility that comes with being on the exchange (and most importantly off the pinks). However, with the good comes the bad.. visibility means opening up to a short-seller contingent that "religiously" shorts pre-revenue biotechs first and asks questions later. There are plenty of NASDAQ stocks that have low liquidity, low SP/market cap, are manipulated heavily, and many that ultimately founder. Being on the NASDAQ just increases the number of players willing take positions on both short and long sides.
So we have the listing, but now we need the event(s) that bring visibility.. good news on the science and collaborations/partnerships front.
Be ready if/when it happens, because shortly after the pop of tutes, pro and retail traders accumulating that the next round of financing will occur.. and it will be dilutive, unless someone brings some upfront cash partnership to the table. Depending on the circumstances leading up to the pop, I'll either sell.. or wait until after the next financing round and add.
Humble thoughts and opinions. Best to TPIV and the investors!