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Perhaps a reverse merger scenario similar to TPIV->MRKR would work out.. TPIV was also a strained, slow moving company with ageing tech and toxic financing. The MC of the combined company at this point is well over $300M
Would be an interesting (fitting?) end to ADXS as an entity since ADXS came to be a public company via reverse merger itself (ADXS merged with company called Great Expectations - also ironic)
Anyone here invested in TPIV while it went through that transition willing to share how it turned out from an investment perspective?
Best to you all,
bomba_travel
They certainly appear to be orchestrating an illiquid squeeze if good news soon re: data or FDA feedback.
However, the 75M post-split shares available to issue will loom large over anyone looking to enter. The co will be able to reduce the entire current capital structure to roughly 6% of the "new" company should all those shares be issued. No-debt companies financing in this way might as well be a BK to long term holders.
FWIW, still holding underwater. It's a setback but not a catastrophe if my investment continues its apparent path to $0.
Best to you
$3k is the *net* loss allowed in a single tax year (not considering capital loss carryovers to future tax years). If you were handed $20K gains from mutual funds or other investment gains, then you could realize ADXS losses of $23k.
Of course if your only investment in the world was ADXS then yes, you could only write off $3k ADXS losses for this year and then have to keep track of the carryover in the future.
Hi Hov, I've had your point #3 in my mind for quite some time. I would conjecture that ADRO's highly-valued IPO at the end of the last Bio boom and their subsequent retreat from Listeria vector (with the corresponding trial whiffs and partnership fails) are the *most* significant driving forces behind ADXS' latest rise and fall. I believe the aggressive (now-seen-as reckless) spending path and product price profile ADXS took was presuming Bio boom type valuations and availability of capital infusions from markets and BP. The confluence of ADRO's crash, the receding Bio boom, and previous management's ready-cash presumptions left ADXS in its present state of extreme vulnerability.
Humble thoughts and opinions.
True, but in hindsight I find it interesting that in the CC describing AIM2CERV refocus rationale, there was an analyst to asked if AMGN was "happy" with the partnership so far. Ken's response was something like: We hope so, but AMGN would have to speak to that.
There is *always* reason to celebrate, my friend.
Well, I can't honestly say I would have done anything differently with this investment that I have held for 4.5 years. I didn't kick myself for holding through $30 and the subsequent drop because I know that if I had sold, I would have used the original basis and profits to buy back in at some point.. because I really did see a value proposition that simply did not materialize.
I do not blame management, I do not blame shorts cabals, MMs, social media posters, politics, or the Easter Bunny.
It just didn't work out this time.
I'll harvest tax losses to offset this year's gains and get a bigger refund than I was planning, which I will use to fund my Roth IRA for 2019. This will still leave me with a considerable position in ADXS that I will probably hold through the year.. and make another tax decision this time next year, assuming ADXS is still trade-able of course.
No anger, no regrets..
Merry Christmas to all!
Hi Reilly,
If you do not select "Specific Shares" then FIFO is default. If you explicitly opt with Fidelity to use LIFO or average method and do not select "Specific Shares" then LIFO or average would be assumed. However, this is the help line from Fidelity regarding specific share sales:
<begin Fidelity>
What is the advantage of selling shares using the specific shares cost basis method?
Because you can choose the tax lot(s) you are selling, selling specific shares gives you more control over the gain or loss realized by a sale. If you sell tax lots with higher cost, you may expect a lower realized capital gain. Conversely, if you sell tax lots with lower cost, you may expect a higher realized capital gain.
<end Fidelity>
Here is an excerpt from irs.gov (circa sept 2018) regarding basis:
<begin IRS>
Question
How do I figure the cost basis when the shares I'm selling were purchased at various times and at different prices?
Answer
The basis of stocks or bonds you own generally is the purchase price plus the costs of purchase, such as commissions and recording or transfer fees. When selling securities, you should be able to identify the specific shares you are selling.
If you can identify which shares of stock you sold, your basis generally is:
What you paid for the shares sold plus any costs of purchase.
If you can't adequately identify the shares you sold and you bought the shares at various times for different prices, the basis of the stock sold is:
The basis of the shares you acquired first, then the basis of the stock later acquired, and so forth (first-in first-out). Except for certain mutual fund shares and certain dividend reinvestment plans, you can't use the average basis per share to figure gain or loss on the sale of stock.
<end IRS>
So, it appears there is no overall IRS requirement that you cannot sell specific shares and use the cost basis of those specific shares to calculate gain/loss, provided that Fidelity has kept track of each lot purchase date/basis.
Hope this helps!
Hi Reilly,
I'm with Fidelity (web-based basic, no active trader stuff), and I'm pretty sure you can trade specific shares of your individual stock holdings via the main trade dialog box under "Actions". If you select "Specific Shares", you will be taken to an additional dialog box before your order is submitted where you can select number of shares from specific lots.
Even with mutual funds, while the default is FIFO, I believe you can opt to change basis calculations to weighted average.
I've also heard, but cannot confirm.. that under-witholding penalties+interest are waived this year (even if you don't meet the safe harbour rules), due to the tax code changes. IRS at least seems to understand that all those tax changes make this year particularly difficult to plan for wrt taxes.
I myself was planning to trim out a few of my higher basis ADXS shares for tax loss harvesting, and to offset gains from other sources. Undecided, presently..
Best to you!
Curious what AMGN's angle is at this point? They are the only collaboration that seems to have legs and not using them to vanish into thin air. But.. if they do value the potential of the technology, as outlined in FBG's post, what would their strategy be now? They are paying for the clinical trials, and obligated to as much as $500M in milestones after proof-of-concept, but ADXS still owns the tech and is manufacturing the vaccine (a substantial, real-time process in the case of NEO) for AMGN, no?
Do they:
1. Wait for liquidation and try to pick it up at firesale?
2. Throw some support our way and negotiate accelerated milestones, or additional stake?
3. Buy us outright at some minor premium to current MC and save money relative to future milestones (assuming we would have gotten that far)?
4. Let whatever happens happen and move on if we go belly up?
Honest questions, as I've little experience with bio/pharma partnerships where the bio is in such dire straits. I've seen #2 happen in one instance (AGEN).
Thanks in advance for the discussion!
How? Here's a theory: While RSI is theoretically bounded by zero at the low end, ADXS' RSI was sitting at -1e-12 due to machine precision and was enough to entice an algo to buy?
Bad attempt at humor, I know.
Best!
Hi Bourbon,
Not that I've been right about much related to ADXS, but I will speculate that this won't be a "nothing to say" event. I for one, painfully, expect there to be a Friday Pre-Market PR disclosing the wind-down of AIM2CERV with associated layoffs, with the requisite comments that they will continue to seek partnerships/licensing for AXAL in the future.
Perhaps they will disclose selection of third HOT indication or maybe status of NEO trial recruitment, or some such.
All in all though, I tend to agree with others' sentiment that at least there will be some clarity.. even if ADXS is back at square 1.5, the forward plan will be known and perhaps that plan sufficient enough for someone in the market to buy into.
Best to you, ADXS and the investors!
CEO hired in at a very tough time for ADXS:
High burn rate, established by prior management in the waning months of a bio bubble, could not be sustained by (expected) spec SP valuations.
Slow/inadequate action by interim management, which was in place for several months, leaving a very short cash runway relative to the pipeline funding burden, and insufficient authorized shares to raise significant capital at more favorable valuations.
Meanwhile during those delays, all the while at high burn rate.. a clinical hold, partnerships silent/defecting (AZN), unclear future product development planning, and general sector headwinds led institutional investors to leave in droves, putting intense pressure on the SP.
Given this state of affairs, the only viable first action to right the ship would be to lower the burn and raise capital, no matter how painful, because the alternative is liquidation. If a favorable deal was available, they would have taken it.. but it wasn't available. This is crisis management.. what would any of us here have done differently?
I still hold hope that an AXAL partnership/licensing/sale is in the works.. if not, then IMO it would have been shelved in that PR.
Apologies for the long post, but FYI, I'm still holding.. because.. why the hell not?
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Added @ $1.24
Bring it
I've also seen companies lower the strike price for particular warrant classes. However, in those cases (the few that I'm aware of) the warrants were not publicly traded.. the warrant agreements which had provisions for those sorts of adjustments. Not sure if ADXSW has similar provisions.
FYI, best!
Certainly provides evidence that ADXS-PSA+Keytruda works better than ADXS alone. Hovacre, do you know how the combo data compare to Keytruda alone? Is ADXS-PSA doing anything to help?
Thanks in advance for your thoughts, insight, and interpretation!
I expect and am prepared for dilutions prior to (if ever) this becomes a multi-billion dollar company. Such events are not necessarily deterministic to successful investment.
Best to you!
This is the defeatist viewpoint, under which no company that is presently struggling has the potential to recover and thrive in the future. A self-fulfilling prophecy where the past and present provides the only possible indication of the future.
Only in a predictable future is the defeatist viewpoint defensible.
It is true, however, that companies who are presently struggling do not look attractive.. be it CEO candidates, employees, institutional investors, retail investors, etc. This is the risk-averse human nature and completely understandable.
History is filled with great investments that looked like the worst investments at precisely the time when the investment should have been made. Hold long through the hard times and hold strong through the good times.. whether you choose to do this with an old money blue-chip or a startup that may wind up in oblivion is just a matter of risk management.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Good evening, Reilly.
Pardon the rudimentary question, but do you know what AMGN's filing requirements are for their stake in ADXS? I don't recall seeing Form 3 or 4, and AMGNs stake isnt showing up on Morningstar, NASDAQ, or other financial sites which list major holders.
Thanks, and best to you!
I strongly suspect blackout is related to the hold. Unlike the last hold, this one involves a combo. Seems reasonable to assume the agreement between ADXS and AZN involves quiet period protocols in the event of a hold. Remember last time, there was an almost immediate response from ADXS staff as to the reasons for the patient death (prosthesis). This time, not a word of speculation as to cause.. and that only makes sense in the collaborative environment.
None of this is to say there isn't good news coming, but I do not happen to believe the blackout is a "tell".
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Another clinical hold..
*sigh*
Wrong horse, I suppose.
Thank you for the replies! I agree with you, but am left again wondering why the surprise switch to, and now the surprise switch from, ADXS-DUAL as a potentially more efficacious approach (outside of neo-antigens)
I suppose they could be anticipating EU requiring more AXAL data prior to approval, so they swapped out DUAL with AXAL so they would already be on top of such a request?
not sure.. what am I to make of ADXS-DUAL suddenly appearing due to "learnings" from previous clinical data. Took me a while to get comfortable with that switch, and then now suddenly disappearing.
I fear manufacturing hiccups with DUAL/NEO/HOT ?
Thanks for your thoughts!
ADXS-DUAL sidelined, it seems based on PR note.
Thoughts?
Not sure I recall Fidelity being a Form 4 insider like Adage. If they were not Form 4, we wouldn't have seen the sell transactions within x days of occurring.
I believe that all the filing tells us is that Fidelity now owns only 600K shares or so, down from 4.2M.
Fidelity has clearly been a strong contributor to what I think has been real sell-side pressure. I'm not familiar enough about filing requirements to infer when the sells would have occurred, but I *think* the filing would include their holdings at the quarter ended Sept 30, 2017... so based on SP chat, my guess is that they began on or about Sept 8.
Man, Fidelity really hit us hard.. 3.5M shares or so sold?
I couldn't even guess, but
I thought it was interesting, considering that we're looking to apply in the EU ASAP.
At the bottom of the following article is an insightful list of Keytruda's indications and safety notes:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-provides-european-application-keytruda-201700265.html
Keytruda sure seems positioned to be one of those blockbuster miracles with all those indications, but it's amazing that drugs can get through trials while piling up this many possible adverse events, but I guess they do.
Best to you!
MRK pulls EU application
for Keytruda in combo with pemetrexed and carboplatin as a first-line treatment for metastatic nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).
Late Friday, Merck said that it had withdrawn its European application for Keytruda to treat metastatic nonsquamous non-small cell lung cancer, but did not list a specific reason for the withdrawal.
FYI
Adage selling..
They were pro-Dan, apparently.
At this time, they appear to still be in for 4.7M shares, unless I misread.
I do not agree that anyone *knows* AXAL is a dud.
However, should ADXS dilute at low SP between EU submission and expected EU decision, then we will know what ADXS thinks.
I do agree that this is real and not HFT, but only real in that it has become a downward momentum play/dogpile, justified by newly advertised timelines that expose gap in cash+milestones runway given burn rate and perceptions that ADXS feels they must course correct away from AXAL in lieu of DUAL and NEO/HOT. To this end, I envision significant trimming of institutional holdings, particularly in smaller holders (non-Adage/Fidelity), and an uptick in short interest. Hope I'm wrong, but we'll know soon as the reports come out.
ADXS does have present intrinsic value and future revenue potential that do not have anything to do with AXAL. Manufacturing facility, IP, and milestones from AMGN and Sellas worth nearly $1B.
All that said, I'm dribbling in small buys during this downturn.
Best to ADXS and the investors!
Wonder if it's related to FY-end window dressing.
I do think it's pretty clear that we'll see tute ownership reduction when calendar Q3 is reported out.
Ownership can turn on a dime however, and many don't seem to mind selling low and buying high for some reason.
Best to you!
Agreed, thanks!
Certainly any warrants that can be shaken loose by a common stock raid can only help the accumulators, if there in fact were such an effort underway, yes? Such efforts will only become more effective the closer we get to Oct, 2018.
3M shares via warrants is nothing to sneeze at :)
Thank you, Reilly. Understood on the differences, just presenting my pessimistic side :)
On the slightly more optimistic side, I had wondered if tutes/large holders were into warrants for leverage and using common stock price pressure to accumulate warrants (in addition to common)... only to support an 11-th hour let-up on common to "spring-load" the warrants.
Again, best wishes to you and the investors!
Truly wish you and the other warrant holders the best, Reilly.
But I must admit, for as long as I've been invested in ADXS, I've feared the warrants would act like a magnet to the powers that be, similar to traditional options.
Best to you!
Ugh.. apologies, FBG.
I missed the sarcasm at the end of your post :)
1 year left.
Warrant expiry is 5 years from now? I don't hold warrants but I thought the expiry was Oct. 2018.
Apologies to all for the un-educated question.
CALA wasn't very well followed at the time, so the investor community communication channels were far less "robust" than here, so I did not pick up on rumors of Adage shorting against the box.
Adage still holds ~10% stake, out of ~78% inst. holdings, but they are no longer the largest holder as of 6/30/2017 (ref: NASD). I'd have to dig back through 13F filings since the run-up to see if they trimmed out.
Sorry couldn't be more help!
Hi Reilly,
I followed CALA enough to know that prior to this last run up, *everything* looked bleak. They were trading at/below cash, tute ownership was waning, analysts targets dropped as low as $1/sh, co. silent, no partnerships/deals, and folks were considering the science and trial data to be lackluster.
It got very very bleak just before the run-up, but when it did turn it turned quickly.. and suddenly every one of those items I mentioned reversed. Don't know whether it will happen like that here, but parallels are indeed present. Another parallel is that Adage was their largest holder throughout..
Best to you, ADXS, and the investors!
If my quote is good, the warrants are down certainly, but aren't even at their 52wk low. Doesn't that seem odd?