Long on AVXL since 2011. Loaded up on AVXL in early spring 2015.
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TGD = The Good Doctor, aka Dr. Missling.
On Dec. 7th, MayoMobile will release his information from CTAD to the public, including here. Until then, it's only available to those of us who sponsored his trip. For his Facebook friends in general, he has posted some photos of the trip and a few high-level comments, which I will summarize as, he's very happy.
Oops. Sorry boi568, I didn't notice you'd already replied until after I posted this. I'm within the edit window, but I don't see a way to delete this comment.
After that 15 minutes, a lot of BP executives, middle managers, and researchers are all trying to figure out how to deflect blame and salvage their reputations.
OTC Scenario
$5.00 net per month per person * 100M people = $6B/year
Valuation at 20 times earnings = $120B
If it goes OTC for Alzheimer's, it's available to anyone with any condition or to avoid any condition.
Sounds like a good deal all around.
How to contact the FDA: https://www.fda.gov/about-fda/contact-fda
In an ideal world, pressure from the population at large would not influence FDA decisions or timing, but of course, the world isn't ideal, and pressure has influenced the FDA in the past. The drug is safe, and the need is dire. They should break a timing record in approving this, and add a phase 4 trial if they want data collection to continue.
No "Short & Distort" attack is underway, as should be obvious from the stock price being way down instead of way up prior to tomorrow's news, and confirmed by the SLB rate remaining low and flat. It doesn't mean there won't be negative articles by the usual people regardless of how positive the news is, but it does mean any negative articles won't be immediately followed by an all-out orchestrated attack on the price by big companies.
Dr. Missling's family includes members who have suffered and died from neurodegenerative diseases, and he has spoken about how deeply that has affected him. He had impressive industry credentials prior to coming to Anavex, which is why the Chairman and original investor, Tom Skarpelos, recruited Dr. Missling to bring Anavex back from the threshold of bankruptcy. There is no rational reason the board would replace him when he is successfully driving the company toward eventual approval and marketing.
Sure, poonch1ne, the only source I'm aware of is Interactive Brokers, where there are several ways to view it. I modified the Portfolio screen to show the current SLB rate, and a chart window to show a chart of the rate.
Today's price & volume isn't coming from shorts, because the Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate is not rising. SLB is the interest rate on borrowed shares sold by shorts, and It's still below 1%.
On the Job Opportunities page, click the Submit Resume button, then scroll down and click the drop-down for "Position Applying For."
These sales positions are not listed on the Job Opportunities page, but that could just mean that applying for the sales jobs is by invitation only. Someone invited will be given a link directly to the resume submission page, and other sales people aren't likely to go past the Job Opportunities page since no sales jobs are listed there.
He might push a hit piece because he's emotionally invested in hating Anavex, but I doubt there will be another criminal Short & Distort attack due to:
1. 32.8% of AVXL is now owned by institutions, including several of the largest.
2. I doubt the major professional shorts have fully recovered financially or psychologically from the GameStop shorting-apocalypse.
3. The SLB rate (interest rate on borrowing stocks to sell short) for AVXL has been extremely low and flat (i.e., below 1%) ever since GameStop. However, I will continue to watch this metric, and make a post here if it goes up dramatically.
The SLB was a key indicator of the Short & Distort attack, spiking to over 150% right before the attack.
AVXL became my best-ever investment a long time ago, but I won't start spending the bounty until well after our first FDA approval. What I have in mind will require a very high share price.
The Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate is < 1% interest, indicating shorting is insufficient to drive up the interest rates on borrowing AVXL shares.
1 vs many
One institution can buy $600K worth of stock from 1,000 sellers averaging 600 shares each. Thus, "No one [singular] or no institution [singular] sold about $600,000 worth of AVXL TODAY!!!" is not only plausible, it is extremely likely there were multiple sellers.
FDA fast tracks Alz vaccine..."...a massive disaster"
Source: https://www.theepochtimes.com/fda-just-fast-tracked-a-vaccine-for-alzheimers_4736960.html
Excerpt:
A vaccine that targets amyloid beta in the brain to treat Alzheimer’s disease has been granted fast-track designation by the FDA.
STORY AT-A-GLANCE
* The U.S. Food and Drug Administration granted fast-track designation to UB-311, a vaccine for Alzheimer’s disease made by biotechnology company Vaxxinity
* Aside from the potential problems that can arise when a vaccine is rushed to market, the vaccine may be problematic from the get-go because amyloid beta may be a symptom of Alzheimer’s, not the cause
* Researchers have even suggested that amyloid beta is a response to neuronal stress, one that functions as a protective adaptation to the disease
* Fast-tracking a vaccine that’s targeting an isolated element of Alzheimer’s disease that is not the underlying cause is destined to be a massive disaster
* Overall, nourishing your brain health is best done with a comprehensively healthy lifestyle, including the use of exercise, ketogenic diet, time-restricted eating, optimized vitamin D and other hormones, increased sleep, meditation, detoxification and elimination of gluten and processed food
I've been all in on AVXL for years, after shifting from hope to confidence. I'm more confident than ever, although I recently invested a small amount of newly available investment funds into LPP Fusion, another very long term investment, so I guess now I'm 99.999% in on Anavex. I expect A273 to help me live long enough to see LPP's work reach the marketplace, maybe in a decade or so.
A critical benefit to multinational trials:
"Intra-Cellular Therapies was on the verge of a major development for the treatment of bipolar depression; it had performed well in earlier trial phases, and the company's scientists were expecting success. Yet in the American arm of the trial, patients who received the drug and those who received the placebo both experienced significant improvement. When Intra-Cellular released its findings showing the drug had failed to consistently outperform a placebo in part of its trial, its stock dropped 22 percent--although the drug was later approved by the FDA due to success in other countries."
Source: Health article by Lia Grainger, Reader's Digest, September 2022
I don't mind waiting for financial rewards, I mind waiting because of the countless people suffering so much. Hang in there, Falconer.
AVXL short interest rate is low at 1.25%, as of 12:40 pm Friday 29Jul2022.
There may still be an attempt to commit a Short & Distort crime again, but if so, this low interest rate indicates it will not be at the same massive scale it was the first time, when the interest rate soared to over 150% prior to the actual good news being crushed by orchestrated fake news.
Perhaps the trial-completion PR that starts the clock is waiting on a less visible piece of the puzzle: Filling some key roles before the clock starts.
In my experience, it's often better to wait to hire someone who is excellent than to hire an average person promptly. It appears to me that Dr. Missling may think that way. I don't except he'd wait to issue a clock-starting PR until all these roles are filled, but it wouldn't surprise me if he'd wait until some of these are filled...
Director/Senior Director, Biometrics
Director/Senior Director, Biostatistics
Director/Senior Director/Executive Director, Clinical Development
Senior/Executive Director, Clinical Development and Medical Evidence
Director/Senior Director
Executive Director, Clinical Operations
Associate Director/Director/ Senior Director, Clinical Scientist
Vice President, Marketing
Senior Director, Medical Affairs
Director/Senior Director, Global Pharmacovigilance
Director, Pricing
Vice President, Quality Assurance
Director, Epidemiology, Real World Evidence
Director, Sales
Source: the drop-down list on Anavex's resume submission page: https://form.jotform.com/220467700042142
Low short fees, large increase in call options: The very low interest rates for selling AVXL short means there is not a huge demand to sell short. Open interest for call options on AVXL has risen sharply today, from about 33K to about 42K.
They're not just looking for a sales director, they're also looking for the following:
Director/Senior Director, Biometrics
Director/Senior Director, Biostatistics
Director/Senior Director/Executive Director, Clinical Development
Senior/Executive Director, Clinical Development and Medical Evidence
Director/Senior Director
Executive Director, Clinical Operations
Associate Director/Director/ Senior Director, Clinical Scientist
Vice President, Marketing
Senior Director, Medical Affairs
Director/Senior Director, Global Pharmacovigilance
Director, Pricing
Vice President, Quality Assurance
Director, Epidemiology, Real World Evidence
Director, Sales
Source: the drop-down list on Anavex's resume submission page: https://form.jotform.com/220467700042142
MayoMobile, I would not be surprised if your website (https://www.sotcanalytics.com/) spurred the idea for Anavex to make and release their recent summary video. You did a superlative job.
Very reassuring, reasonable explanations. Thanks, vg_future.
There is no significant shorting recently or so far today. The Stock Loan Borrow (SLB) rate at Interactive Brokers has been flat and low (less than 1%) for a long time.
My guess as to why the price has dropped sharply on this morning's superlative news is that big firms are using high frequency trading to push prices down so they can gobble up the stop-loss orders which they can see and retail investors can't see (other than their own).
I haven't lost any value this morning, because I'm not selling.
It has been 3,912 days since my first purchase of AVXL, long before I was diagnosed with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Way back then, I projected the earliest possible FDA approval could come in 2021, with it being likely to come in 2023, and possible that it would take several years beyond that. This was my private analysis, which I think I did not share publicly until now.
My projection still seems reasonable to me, with the simple adjustment to 2022 for the earliest possible FDA approval, and keeping 2023 as the most likely year.
When a clinical stage biotech gets a strong indication or a confirmation from the FDA (or equal in another country or group of nations) that a drug candidate will be approved, how long is it between when that company receives the information and when that information becomes public?
What kinds of things might that biotech do during that period, if the company is led by a savvy, strategic-thinking CEO?
AVXL@NASDAQ Listing Change
(I received this from Interactive Brokers)
MESSAGE NOTIFICATION(S):
1 AVXL@NASDAQ Listing Change
AVXL@NASDAQ has announced a change in listing exchange. Effective Sep 27, 2021, the security will move from NASDAQ CM to NASDAQ GS.
(Here is info on CM vs GS, from https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/nasdaq-stock-market-tiers.)
NASDAQ's 3 Tiers:
The Nasdaq Capital Market (CM): Focused on its core purpose for those companies listed -- capital raising.
The Nasdaq Global Market (GM) lists companies with an overall global leadership and international reach with their products or services.
The Nasdaq Global Select Market (GS) has the highest initial listing standards of any exchange in the world. It is a mark of achievement and stature for qualified companies.
If you want to trade, trade. No one is stopping you.
I invested. How much or how sharply the share price or market cap fluctuates in the short term or intermediate term (or from 2011 when I bought my first shares) is irrelevant to me. I am happy to hold and keep holding and ignore the fluctuations while waiting for the first of many FDA approvals.
I didn't lose a penny today. I didn't sell.
That's amazing, Xena. Would you be willing and able to start a Wikipedia article on Anavex? There are more 3rd-party articles about the company than there used to be, which I think Wikipedia prefers.
Or can another poster from this board do it?
I would be willing to contribute finally, if that would not violate Wikipedia's terms of use.
I think I misunderstood, Bud. I thought you meant there was a wiki article about Anavex somewhere other than Wikipedia. The Wikipedia article on blarcamesine is rather poor in my assessment, and would take a better mind than what I have left to make significant improvements, I think.
Wow. Thank you Xena, and Steady_T. That's impressive work!
That's fine with me, Bud. If you post a link to the wiki, I'll see if I can add other history, with sources.
Also, check the references in this post by jbcan07: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=164685241
None of the other pharmaceuticals had Dr. Alexandre Vamvakides.
Sigma receptors were investigated in the 1960's for a particular medical issue (I've forgotten which one), and were determined to be unrelated to that issue. Further investigation into sigma receptors was abandoned.
Dr. Vamvakides, a relatively young researcher at the time, realized that the large number of sigma receptors throughout the human body(1) had to have some function(s), and he began working to discover what those functions might be.
Anavex began in 2004 with a portfolio of over 30 sigma-receptor compounds developed by Dr. Vamvakides, lead investor Athanasios (Tom) Skarpelos, and Harvey Lalach as President. Dr. Panos Kontzalis came on as the first CEO in Jan2007. At some point, Dr. Kontzalis resigned, and Dr. Hervé de Kergrohen became the CEO 16Jun2009. Together, they all got A2-73 through it's Phase 1 clinical trial for safety, but Kergrohen and Lalach failed to secure adequate funding to continue.
After a period of dormancy, Skarpeolos took over and secured $10M in funding from Lincoln Park Capital Fund, and just as important, he recruited Dr. Christoper U. Missling as the new CEO. Dr. Missling held an MBA in addition to his PhD, and had significant experience as a CFO at other pharmaceutical companies.
And soon, Anavex will have its first of many FDA approvals. It took a lot of people a lot of work and a lot of years to get us where we are today. And all we investors have to do is be patient.
(1): "Sigma receptors are unique drug-binding proteins, present in the central nervous system as well as in various peripheral tissues. Sigma receptors are found in endocrine, immune, and reproductive tissues and in high density in liver and kidney. Thus, it is likely that sigma receptors have important functions outside the nervous system and sub-serve a more general role than a neurotransmitter receptor" (WD Wayne, Pharmaceutica Acta Helvetiae 2000; 74, 211-218).
EOD: BIIB -6.79% SAVA -15.02% ANVS -12.4% AVXL -5.54%
That sentence starts with "For example..." and the sentence does not say that market makers may only short naked when there are no shares available.
Also, if you want me to believe that market makers never have difficulty obtaining shares, despite what the SEC states here in Regulation SHO, you'll have to give me more evidence than just your assertion.
What is the source of your claim that mm's may only short naked when there are no shares available? Here is a section of the SEC's Regulation SHO, and I don't see that here, nor am I aware of a law, regulation, or document that says only when no shares available.
In a “naked” short sale, the seller does not borrow or arrange to borrow the securities in time to make delivery to the buyer within the standard three-day settlement period.[3] As a result, the seller fails to deliver securities to the buyer when delivery is due (known as a “failure to deliver” or “fail”).
Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from “naked” short selling. For example, market makers who sell short thinly traded, illiquid stock in response to customer demand may encounter difficulty in obtaining securities when the time for delivery arrives.
“Naked” short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission’s rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, “naked” short selling contributes to market liquidity. For example, broker-dealers that make a market in a security[4] generally stand ready to buy and sell the security on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, even when there are no other buyers or sellers. Thus, market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market. This may occur, for example, if there is a sudden surge in buying interest in that security, or if few investors are selling the security at that time. Because it may take a market maker considerable time to purchase or arrange to borrow the security, a market maker engaged in bona fide market making, particularly in a fast-moving market, may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow shares. This is especially true for market makers in thinly traded, illiquid stocks as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a given time. https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
I think I agree and disagree. :) I suspect you are correct that "it is extremely rare for no shares to be available," but they don't just need shares available, they need profitable shares available, otherwise it seems like they'd go bankrupt in a hurry.
I don't know the SEC's definition of "bona fide" market making, but it would seem reasonable to me that rules would not require a market maker to act unprofitably.
They definitely trade for their own account, as that is the account they use to "make" a market by working the spread when asks and bids would otherwise not meet.
The #1 reason why AVXL is so volatile: Small Float
"A stock with a small float will generally be more volatile than a stock with a large float. This is because, with fewer shares available, it may be harder to find a buyer or seller. This results in larger spreads and often lower volume." https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/floating-stock.asp
And this effect is magnified when longs keep shares off the market for months or years at a time.
"Authorized" shares are the total number of shares the company may issue.
"Outstanding" shares are the shares already issued.
"Restricted" shares are issued shares that can't legally be traded for a while, typically held by company managers.
"Float" shares are calculated as Outstanding - Restricted shares. This is the float that is reported publicly.
However, there can be many other shares that are held off the market by long investors, and each share held by longs effectively reduces the true float below what can be calcualted from publicly available data.
I and others bought shares by the thousands and tens of thousands back in early 2015, when the PPS was at its lowest. Many others have bought and held significant numbers of shares since then. Based on private communications among many longs, the total number of shares we hold is in the millions, and a substantial percentage of the offical float. Many of us have no plans to sell them for a long, long time, and perhaps never, if Anavex begins paying dividends someday, as we expect.
So we longs directly contribute to volatility.
Have you noticed that AVXL has become even more volatile lately?