Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) Added to S&P/ASX 300
ASX Press Release
"The S&P/ASX Mid-Small index is composed of companies included in the S&P/ASX 300 that are not included in the S&P/ASX 50. The index represents a combination of the S&P/ASX MidCap 50 and the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, covering approximately 18% of Australian equity market capitalization."
From Standards and Poors
This should give Sundance more visibility and perhaps even greater volume as people try to mimic the index.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) Added to S&P/ASX 300
ASX Press Release
"The S&P/ASX Mid-Small index is composed of companies included in the S&P/ASX 300 that are not included in the S&P/ASX 50. The index represents a combination of the S&P/ASX MidCap 50 and the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries, covering approximately 18% of Australian equity market capitalization."
From Standards and Poors
This should give Sundance more visibility and perhaps even greater volume as people try to mimic the index.
Thoughts?
Jeff
South Antelope sale
Presentation on the South Antalope sale is posted here:
South Sale Presentation
I think in 2 years we are going to look back and see this at the key event that moved Sundance from a J/V partner to an operator.
I expect they'll speed up drilling as an operator to move towards their 5000 BOEpd goal and focus on purchasing more right in the Mississippian.
Stock is already up .34 cents this month.
July operations update is likely out this week as well, do good drilling results in their higher interest wells should push the stock up even more.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance Quarterly Conference call slides posted
What Bob said :) Bob thanks for bring this one to the board! Its taking some time but I think Sundace is finally making a move.
Quarterly Conference call
Sundance looks to be hitting on all cylinders! They are doing this year what we had hoped for last year!
Some highlights I read:
- Leon Pecha #1 Frac scheduled for this week - operator and 72.8% Net interest
- 2nd Mississipian well Leroy Unruh drilling started - operator and 66.7% NI
- More good news in June when the announce the second half High interest drilling program
- March production was 1500 boed!
- Solid plan to spend 88 Million in Capex, with no Dilution!!!!!
- Increased Mississippian position by 4,000 acres in March
Sundance is quickly transitioning from JV to Operator, this is a great time to buy more IMHO.
Thoughts,
Best Regards,
Jeff
Quarterly call Preso posted
Quarterly Conference call
Sundance looks to be hitting on all cylinders! They are doing this year what we had hoped for last year!
Some highlights I read:
- Leon Pecha #1 Frac scheduled for this week - operator and 72.8% Net interest
- 2nd Mississipian well Leroy Unruh drilling started - operator and 66.7% NI
- More good news in June when the announce the second half High interest drilling program
- March production was 1500 boed!
- Solid plan to spend 88 Million in Capex, with no Dilution!!!!!
- Increased Mississippian position by 4,000 acres in March
Sundance is quickly transitioning from JV to Operator, this is a great time to buy more IMHO.
Thoughts,
Best Regards,
Jeff
Sundance Conference call Thursday.
ASX Announcement
First time I can remember them doing this. I hope they are planning to have some good news/updates on the Mississippian wells.
FWIW,
Jeff
Q3 Cash flow and Activities report out today.
Sundance release their Q3 report today.
Activities and Cash Flow Reports for 31 March 2012 Quarter
Nothing really new but a few things jumped out at me:
- New format, more professional, tells more of a story than past reports
- They are getting more for the NGAS since it is liquid rich.
- Cash from oil and NGAS sales was 4.2 million in Q3. Nice acceleration, with the Williston Basin wells, this should only increase in Q4.
- Generating enough cash to pay for much of the new exploration
- Credit available if needed, meaning (hopefully) no shareholder dilution is likey in the near term (IE this year)
If they start getting oil/results from the Leon Pecha#1 well in the Mississipian, the growth could be even more dramatic since they own 70%+ of the well's revenue.
This continues to be an excellent year for Sundance!
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK) Q3 Cash flow and Activities report.
Sundance release their Q3 report today.
Activities and Cash Flow Reports for 31 March 2012 Quarter
Nothing really new but a few things jumped out at me:
- New format, more professional, tells more of a story than past reports
- They are getting more for the NGAS since it is liquid rich.
- Cash from oil and NGAS sales was 4.2 million in Q3. Nice acceleration, with the Williston Basin wells, this should only increase in Q4.
- Generating enough cash to pay for much of the new exploration
- Credit available if needed, meaning (hopefully) no shareholder dilution is likey in the near term (IE this year)
If they start getting oil/results from the Leon Pecha#1 well in the Mississipian, the growth could be even more dramatic since they own 70%+ of the well's revenue.
This continues to be an excellent year for Sundance!
Thoughts?
Jeff
Re: Sundance Production increasing
Thanks Bob!
Another good operations update. The big report in May will be the frac results for the Mississippian well(Leon Pecha 1-11H). The company reported on 4/19 that the drilling was completed in this well which they are the operator of and have a 93% working interest in!
IF it shows any oil, Sundance should fly up over $1.00, I think.
Good news stream continues.
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
New 5% shareholder for Sundance (SEA.AX/SDCJF)
An Aussie fund Eley Griffths (About 1.2 Billion AUD under management) has bought over 13.7 million shares of stock, recently. The Form says it was all on 3/7 but not sure if that is correct, since the volume is 2-3 million per day.
http://www.eleygriffiths.com.au/
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120309/pdf/424xyzsvwfnlk1.pdf
News on several high interest wells that they are operating, Should come in the next few weeks.
Breeden 2-17H (33%) Fracing prep started. Fracing should start ~3/25ish?
Leon Pecha #1 (70% net interest) Drilling completed started on 2/24 Target reached ~3/20ish?
Daily 4-13-3 (27% net) Target depth reached 2/20 Fracing should start ~4/10ish?
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
New 5% shareholder for Sundance (SEA.AX/SDCJF)
An Aussie fund Eley Griffths (About 1.2 Billion AUD under management) has bought over 13.7 million shares of stock, recentnly. The Form says it was all on 3/7 but not sure if that is correct, since the volume is 2-3 million per day.
http://www.eleygriffiths.com.au/
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120309/pdf/424xyzsvwfnlk1.pdf
News on several high interest wells, some that they are operating, Should come in the next few weeks.
Breeden 2-17H (33%) Fracing prep started. Fracing should start ~3/25ish?
Leon Pecha #1 (70% net interest) Drilling completed started on 2/24 Target reached ~3/20ish?
Daily 4-13-3 (27% net) Target depth reached 2/20 Fracing should start ~4/10ish?
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
More Promising news out of the Mississippian area
Austex oil looking for more partners. Plus they seem to have a promising initial well.
http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/26039/austex-oil-looking-for-partners-in-the-mississippi-lime-poised-to-add-more-oil-output-26039.html
Southern Pacific Resource McKay SAGD nearing completion.
STP.v/STPJF (1.91 USD/CAD
Canadian JR Oil sands company I've held since March 2010. I think Bobwins brought it to the board. Thanks Bob!
Its up 50% over two years. This year is a critical year for them, as they be bring on line a 400 Million dollar 12,000 BBL/Day SAGD production facility in the second half of this year. If oil continues to stay high, and if they continue to execute, I expect this be a good stock to buy, even after the current run up to almost the 52 week high, before first steam in May.
Link to my Southern Pacific Resource DD below:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ie6o_-zm1oAFjVC80du6eguqGX5b7XTl4VZ-IMrC06Q/edit
Trying to decide if I should take profits and buy more Sundance or Red Fork :)
Anyone else follow the company or have thoughts?
Thanks,
Jeff
More good news from Sundance Productions up 8% in Jan
SEA.ax/SDCJF (.665 up 2+% in Australia this Monday Morning)
Jan Operations Update
- Production is up 8% from Dec
- 4 Sundance drilled wells had initial flow rates of 85 Boepd.
(50-100% interest in these wells)
It doesn't sound like a lot, but these are cheap wells to drill and operate (600K to drill)
Lots more news coming in the spring and Summer. They have several large interest wells drilled and awaiting Fracking.
Latest Corp Presentation
Company is moving from a JV partner, to an operator with larger working interests. If they can execute, this year should be a big year! <fingers crossed>
Best,
Jeff
Sundance's Production up 8% in Jan
SEA.ax/SDCJF (.665 up 2+% in Australia this Monday Morning)
Jan Operations Update
- Production is up 8% from Dec
- 4 Sundance drilled wells had initial flow rates of 85 Boepd.
(50-100% interest in these wells)
It doesn't sound like a lot, but these are cheap wells to drill and operate (600K to drill)
Lots more news coming in the spring and Summer. They have several large interest wells drilled and awaiting Fracking.
Latest Corp Presentation
Company is moving from a JV partner, to an operator with larger working interests. If they can execute, this year should be a big year! <fingers crossed>
Best,
Jeff
Sundance: (SEA.AX/SDCJF.PK Operations update
Acreage Acquisition and Monthly Operations Update
A rig arrived damaged at a Niobrara drill site but overall the news is good.
- 30K+ boe in Oct.
- 983 BOE per day average
- Purchased a 1000 more acres in the Mississippian
A profitable, with big day partners & contacts, cheaply priced, growing by the drill bit, with their own revs oil company and the stock keeps dropping!
What am I missing?
Best Regards,
Jeff
Sundance announces 3P reserves of $307 Million
Newly Updated 3P
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110923/pdf/4218hdgt7pft7g.pdf
Previously 3P in Aug 2010 Preso was 116M
http://www.slideshare.net/plsderrick/sundance-independent-reserve-report-by-netherland-sewell-shows-strong-reserve-growth
So 3P overall has tripled.
Proven Producing increased from .56 Million to 1.9 Million - Almost 4X increase.
I don't get the 15% sell off today?
Anyone see something I don't?
Jeff
SEA/SDCJF.pk 2 wells @ 100% hooked up and sales starting yesterday.
Quarterly development report posted.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110809/pdf/4208tk7ffmyn61.pdf
Everything seems to be chugging along on their drilling program, with some delays. I suspect the price of oil and the market panic is pushing this stock down to 60 cents, but I have to think the increase in cash flow, the drilling program and the hope of a NA listing is going to push this stock up long term.
Thoughts?
Jeff
2 wells @ 100% hooked up and sales starting yesterday.
Quarterly development report posted.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110809/pdf/4208tk7ffmyn61.pdf
Everything seems to be chugging along on their drilling program, with some delays. I suspect the price of oil and the market panic is pushing this stock down to 60 cents, but I have to think the increase in cash flow, the drilling program and the hope of a NA listing is going to push this stock up long term.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Re: Sundance Presentation
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110614/pdf/41z6kn60wkpnnt.pdf
I also think that management touting 100M credit line in the US is significant because:
- No dilution coming: between cash being generated and the credit line they should be able to fund all of the foreseeable growth with out dilution.
- North American exchange listing is still on target for this year.
With oil prices and the new wells as an operator, below a dollar is going to look cheap in 6 months, I believe.
I'd buy more but its my largest position by far :)
Thoughts?
Jeff
Re: Sundance climbing back up
Bobwins, I'm with you the acreage, drilling program and management should all mean good things for Sundance shareholders. Plus a North American listing in Q3 this year seems likely.
I wish I would have added more last week when it was in the .60's, but it already my largest holding :)
Is it possible the price went down due to the drilling delays problems they have this winter?
If I may ask are you still holding Sundance?
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
No news on Sundance...
The last ASX filing was the quarterly last week. No major issues with it that I saw.
Should have a development update out soon, as they seem to publish one about every 30 days, but with the bad weather it might not be great...
I'm still hopeful for a North American listing to push us back up...
FWIW,
Best Regards,
Jeff
New Quarterly financials just posted
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110429/pdf/41yc34vyj1ht2x.pdf
Makes me want to buy more :)
A few quick highlights:
- Net sales from O&G increased 210% YOY and 31% QOQ
- Operating income increased 508% YOY and 85% QOQ
- Production Expenses and Admin exp decreased 55% and 59% QOQ
- Capx increased 286% YOY and 53% QOQ
- Cash decrease by about 5M from 32M to 26M
- Slight missed in production 866 instead of 917 boepd. Company cited bad weather in the west.
- The company is pursing a North american stock exchange listing!
It looks to me like operating income is beginning to fund capx reducing the draw on cash, and/or allowing the company to spend more for drilling. Management is wisely hedging and locking in higher oil prices out into 2012.
Not sure why production cost are down, perhaps older wells? Bob?
Overall to me a good report and no surprises. Should have a production and development report out in a week or two with more new production.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance (SEA.ax/SDCJF.pk): New Quarterly financials just posted
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110429/pdf/41yc34vyj1ht2x.pdf
Makes me want to buy more :)
A few quick highlights:
- Net sales from O&G increased 210% YOY and 31% QOQ
- Operating income increased 508% YOY and 85% QOQ
- Production Expenses and Admin exp decreased 55% and 59% QOQ
- Capx increased 286% YOY and 53% QOQ
- Cash decrease by about 5M from 32M to 26M
- Slight missed in production 866 instead of 917 boepd. Company cited bad weather in the west.
- The company is pursing a North american stock exchange listing!
It looks to me like operating income is beginning to fund capx reducing the draw on cash, and/or allowing the company to spend more for drilling. Management is wisely hedging and locking in higher oil prices out into 2012.
Not sure why production cost are down, perhaps older wells? Bob?
Overall to me a good report and no surprises. Should have a production and development report out in a week or two with more new production.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Re: Sundance prices.
Good points. Sundance is already a huge position for me, trying to figure out at what point in this sell off I might buy more :)
Was the well tracking spreadsheet helpful?
goo.gl/EteIq
I'm planning on adding the production numbers and then trying to extrapolate their increase in production and the velocity of the increase. As well as simply following which wells should be reported on next.
Make sense? any other idea for the sheet?
TIA,
Jeff
Red Fork Energy Spuds well in the Mississippian formation
RFE.ax/RDFEF is up 13% in Australia tonight. This is the only news I can find, doesn't seem like huge news.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110412/pdf/41y00gw6dlds2r.pdf
I'm assuming "spud" here means basically starting the drilling.
Any estimates on how long it might take to get ~5900 and then review the results?
Jeff
Re: Sundance announcement and price movement
Bobwins - Thanks for posting... I don't see anything negative in the post, nor the development updates. We should have four or five wells post 1st 30 day production updates in the next development update by my calcs..
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AogpO7D1Xf9ydEUzd1dWUlR5blduWWg2cjRJYlJpaVE&hl=en
They have at least 5 rigs drilling more wells,and at least 8 more new wells which have been producing for most of the year. (these are not net wells but 2-12% for them)
So increasing production coming on line, with more growth via the drill bit, everything seems to be showing that they are going to meet the plan of doubling production this year.
I'm surprise the stock is down again. Any thoughts on why? What am I missing?
Thoughts?
Jeff
Bobwins Questions on Sundance development/production?
I'm going back through the development updates and trying to follow each well's development and flow rates. The company has been good about posting at least one every month but not the format is easily sortable or always easy to spot all the changes.
I'm doing it in Google docs, so I'll be happy to share to the board once its complete. But a few questions...
Is the IP, 7 day and 30 day, cumulative of what has flowed so far?
How would you estimate a daily rate after 30 days is reported?
Based on the interest % how could you estimate the production value going forward, or even net value for the life of the well?
Thanks,
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
Sundance's Latest Development update 4/8
ASX:SEA/PINK:SDCJF
Sundance posted a development update on Friday.
Helis O&G added a second rig on the South Antelope prospect (Bakken Formation) which is good news. They also continue to state that they are expecting to drill 115 gross wells this year.
Looks to me like Sundance is just chugging along, although the share price is a dropping a back little to .90 down under today :(
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110408/pdf/41xycyrj7g7q1q.pdf
Thoughts?
Jeff
Latest Development update 4/8
ASX:SEA/PINK:SDCJF
Sundance posted a development update on Friday.
Helis O&G added a second rig on the South Antelope prospect (Bakken Formation) which is good news. They also continue to state that they are expecting to drill 115 gross wells this year.
Looks to me like Sundance is just chugging along, although the share price is a dropping a back little to .90 down under today :(
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110408/pdf/41xycyrj7g7q1q.pdf
Thoughts?
Jeff
cartonet: is there a pink sheet equivalent to FED.v?
Thank,
Jeff
Dilution?
Bobwins -
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110307/pdf/41x8dkmq1mbwwm.pdf
Are you aware of this stockholder meeting notice? Is it already in the Outstanding Shares or additional dilution?
Thinking about adding more, but this is giving me pause...
Thanks,
Best Regards,
Jeff
SEA.AX/SDCJF Development update from last week:
Catching up from vacation :) This is not showing up on Google finance. Got this from the ASX site directly.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110211/pdf/41wqjd11gs88fw.pdf
I thought the four new wells was good news, but perhaps the weather delays is impacting shareholders who are getting impatient?
Bought more today, I don't see anything stopping them from doubling production this year.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Development update from last week: any thoughts?
Catching up from vacation :)
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110211/pdf/41wqjd11gs88fw.pdf
I thought four new wells was good news, but perhaps the weather delays is impacting shareholders who are getting impatient?
Bought more today, I don't see anything stopping them from doubling production this year.
Thoughts?
Jeff
Sundance releases Q4update/reports. Stock Up 10% in Australia Tuesday on 3.3 Million shares
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110131/pdf/41wglfz0zx9gt5.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110131/pdf/41wglpv47yczcg.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110131/pdf/41wglvftzhsn9d.pdf
Some Quick highlights that I see.
Revenue growth increased Q/Q 32%
Cash from Operations up sequentially from 3.1M in Q3 to 4.1M in Q4.
(revs should double by the end of the year if projections are met.)
The price they are getting for Oil is $73. and NG is over $8.00.
No need to raise more cash near term.
Currently 32 Million AUD in Cash. Projecting 7M in Q1 Capx for development out of cash on hand.
Looks like they can drill throughout 2011 without raising cash.
Other thoughts/Comments?
Jeff
Sundance also released Q4 reports. Stock Up 10% in Australia Tuesday on 3.3 Million shares
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110131/pdf/41wglpv47yczcg.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110131/pdf/41wglvftzhsn9d.pdf
Some Quick highlights that I see.
Revenue growth increased Q/Q 32%
Cash from Operations up sequentially from 3.1M in Q3 to 4.1M in Q4.
(revs should double by the end of the year if projections are met.)
The price they are getting for Oil is $73. and NG is over $8.00.
No need to raise more cash near term.
Currently 32 Million AUD in Cash. Projecting 7M in Q1 Capx for development out of cash on hand.
Looks like they can drill throughout 2011 without raising cash.
Other thoughts/Comments?
Uic_Jeff
If you had to pick Sundance or Samson?
Thanks Bobwins!
If you had to pick between the two which would you choose?
Thoughts?
Best Regards,
Jeff
Entek Energy Limited (ASX:ETE/PINK:ETKEF)
Does anyone follow and/or have an opinion on Entek?
Found them while looking for Lease holders in the Niorara area.
I calculated a "potential" value of the current reserves at $1.56 per share.
Rough calculations are in the spreadsheet below:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=tClyBIQfTZYarzSEvnYhRYQ&hl=en&authkey=CNyxgLgI#gid=0
My Initial Conclusions:
IF they can execute and produce and IF they do not have to raise more money through dilution. Then this could be a good investment. WAG of stock price in the next 3 years of around a $1.00? If they could get .08 cents a share profit at a 12 PE
(Is there a better way to value a j/v explorer?)
Full notes, links and rough DD are here.
https://docs0.google.com/document/d/18WfLL-asmdgaIobXs__vH9GM0YfBMjfR6dIELIUpE18/edit?hl=en&authkey=CJPB6NwP&pli=1#
I don't own any shares, yet.
Any feedback on the company, my approach and/or my rough calcs?
Thanks,
Jeff
Links on Sundance's (SEA.AX/SDCJF.pk) Production announcement Today.
Updated production information:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA
Scroll to new for todays PR or this link may work to get to it directly.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110117/pdf/41w6w3bmblsvyb.pdf
FWIW,
Jeff
Link on Sundance announcement.
Updated production information:
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=SEA
Scroll to new for todays PR or this link may work to get to it directly.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110117/pdf/41w6w3bmblsvyb.pdf
FWIW,
Jeff