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$AVXL is helped today by the broader indexes for a bullish sentiment. But I disagree that this is a "pivotal week" or the need for news or "answers". Why this week I your opinion?
I've noticed retails shareholders are getting quite anxious for AD news to drop. In addition to AD, I'm expecting some updates on PD trials to start in Australia. It might not move the market, but something I'm watching for.
Hold the line!
I've got covered calls expiring tomorrow. Looking for a market driven sign or signal on when and at what levels of time and strike to pull the trigger to bet on a positive reaction to peer reviewed paper publishing.
How's that for a run on sentence!
Maybe someday the rules of "should be updated" will be changed to required to be updated.
Unfortunately there are many under updated pages in that database. Not an excuse for Anavex, but they are simply doing as their non-government funded peers do.
Indeed the same biotech company where for the low, low price of $5.75 you too can get in on the ground floor of a company that some say has "an absolutely certain 85% chance of EMA approval for their drug in AD."
Who knows maybe it will be a $6 stock again too?
Also of note, $AVXL stabilized after volume event in resistance to broader market headwinds.
I would expect price support in this area and had $5.75 as a low to watch for holding.
Nice volatility or $6 remains the battleground. I had ~5.75 as an exhaustion point if tested and met, we'll see....
The trial was successful, "Missling also stressed this point in his JPM 2024 presentation" "
So sorry for being hasty and rude. I thought you were attacking by saying that there was an disposition, but upon further review I see exactly what you are saying. There was an "A" acquisition of stock options, yet in the quantity was put in the (D) column. ?!?
I'll let other's respond to your lack of knowledge and understanding of how to read a form 4.
The form 4 filed on 1/12/2024 was to report a tranche of stock options being priced to Dr. Missling (President and CEO) and Sandra Boenisch (PFO & Treasurer)
"1. On June 27, 2022, the reporting person was granted an option to purchase 500,000 shares of common stock. The option vests in four equal tranches based on four performance milestones, one of which included topline data readout of ANAVEX2-73-RS-003 EXCELLENCE clinical trial in Rett Syndrome. The performance criteria for this milestone was met, resulting in vesting of the option as to 125,000 shares."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314052/000173112224000070/xslF345X05/ownership.xml
For the record they were priced at $10.09
On a side note, "retail" needs to understand that in microcap equity the "insiders" are not operating the company for your benefit as much as they are operating it for themselves and the small group of people who created the public trading entity today known as Anavex. I like to joke the Greek Mafia is probably among the insiders put in motion the OTC reverse merger of the printing company shell to create the company we know today.
This plays well into the needs for precision medicine models and of course modifications to traditional regulatory pathways to allow for agreed upon subgroup analysis before the start of the trials.
I remember a time when there was a TOS that kept things on topic... those days are over it seems. But, personal attacks didn't get as out of hand as I had expected it to get.
Been on and off holiday last few weeks and OT posts do make for a tough catch-up, but some made me chuckle.
It just may be time for a whipsaw and fill the upside gap.
The weak hands have been weeded out.
Time to put on the rally hat today?
Re: AVXL, I woke up today with a feeling I was overreacting negatively yesterday. Basically regarding Rett results, I wanted and expected a new BMW, but instead I got a used Honda, so I got cranky.
So...for those playing along, I bought some calls ... LOL
So my picture is Long stock with low cost basis, short Jan 19 $11 calls, and long April 19 $7 calls for a legged in covered calendar spread.
LOL! yes indeed!
Story stocks are fun. Positive AD news could whipsaw it right back up.
Heretofore I have felt that without trial results $AVXL was trading sympathetically with the $XBI, now given this neutral readout event it appears to have been broken to the downside. Will a positive peer review for AD put the ticker back on track?
We shall see, as old timers know "only the shadow knows"... ;)
Truth be told I'm bummed, but remain hopeful positive news is on deck.
ooommph, not the de-risking Rett event we had hoped for, but that RSBQ improvements of the responders was much better than trofinetide.
I'm ready for a battle. Some juicy results should produce the volume to make any upside movements stick.
BTW, I was short $11 $AVXL calls going into the close of the last week of December 2023 because... well... I was goofing off betting the Missling was going to delay to 2024 and a trend better bets the trend will continue and the trend is Missling misses. LOL! But, more importantly, that takes off the "neutral" leg of the position, so I'm ready for a rally. I would love to see a beast mode volume day early in 2024.
Have a great holiday all.
I haven't seen confirmation this has gone much past preclinical to P1, but given the high possibility from RWE that blarcamesine does reduce seizures in Rett Syndrome, I'm sure that bodes well for other indications such as infantile spasms.
https://www.epilepsy.com/tools-resources/pipeline/anavex-2-73-blarcamesine
I wonder if Anavex speaks up the week of Jan 8th? It's time for the JP Morgan "dog and pony show" and eyes will be looking at the sector.
I strongly doubt the compensation package afforded to the CEO has much of any bearing on anything right now.
Missling's compensation package is quite generous and he does very much have control in many matters in his role as CEO. This is true. However to say "something does not smell right" just seems preposterous to me. You got brandy or rum in that nog? ;)
Peace to you my friend and happy new year.
I like your logic on the timeframes, but I'd also add that after the Karuna announcement yesterday, I'm putting full buyout back into my mix of possible outcomes.
And quite frankly, if that's what's needed to speed the process, I'm good. Microcap biotech can be frustratingly slow due to lack of resources.
No worries. Direction and potential magnitude are correct, just time was off.
I'm at position max so need to get crafty again with options. If some real news hits I hope to see some tighter spreads and volume again. Those were the good old days when $AVXL rallied along with the shiny object of the time AD stocks.
The drama and volatility we have seen!
I think Anavex will take a licensing approach to AD, PD/PDD and keep rare diseases in house. Same thoughts I had 8 years ago.
I sold some $11 calls for this week and some for Jan.
I love harvesting off time and volatility premium off of my low to zero basis shares. Keep my head in the game. ;)
I like to follow the trend, and the trend is Missling will not meet his timeline and new news on trials won't come until 2024.
Dittos, Schwab makes it super easy to build ladders. I do T-bills and notes in my taxable accts for state tax exemption and CD's in my IRA. It's also to placate the wife and the addition of the check box of "capital preservation".
We'll see if it was a mistake, but I haven't gone out past 2 - 3 year duration. I just don't like fixed income. I much more prefer dividends.
Speaking of settlement, I'm relatively new to trading bonds for my personal accounts, and as an equity trader had T+2 in my head. Well damn it, had to pay one day of margin interest for not lining up settlement of T+1 correctly. LOL!
Look at my profile and you'll see how much I HATE paying interest. LOL
We all know this "problem" is fixable with current technology.
We've seen settlement times go from T+5 to T+2 in equities over our tenure in the industry.
I expect more regulatory changes will come to level the playing field.
Stating that there needs to be more transparency and regulation for fair markets is NOT the same as accepting the cabal narrative.
Yep, Reg SHO is a joke and the industries bookkeeper the DTC has been complicit, if not actively corrupt, for decades now.
The Gamestop event opened my eyes to the fact what I thought was a small issue related to OTC level transactions had expanded to all equities.
Forcing some transparency regulations on the short side should be a start of the end of counterfeit stock and phantom books.
"“We have a lot of transparency in the long side, let’s add transparency to the short side that Congress mandated.”
That said $AVXL has a huge regular way outstanding short percentage, if there are firms "naked short"? May they be crushed when the accountants settle up the share balances.
A soft bash based on word play of "endpoint" as used in P3 trials, versus "outcome measures" used in P2 trials.
Anavex trials have met all outcome measures of their P2 trials and they are preparing a Top Line Readout of trial endpoints for the P3 Rett and full data plus OLE data from their P2b/3 AD trial.
Indeed, t/a combined with following the broader financial risk on/off story helped me nail that bottom.
Thanks for playing on team T/A LOL!
be well guys
The origin story revealed: Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (OTCBB: AVXL)
GENEVA, Switzerland – January 31, 2007Anavex Life Sciences Corp. Acquires a Portfolio of Patents and Appoints Dr. Alexandre Vamvakides as CSO and Director.
What's funny is OTCBB was categorically disallowed in almost 99% of the portfolios I built. Hence, why the uplist to NASDAQ was a big deal to some of out there bound by fiduciary guidelines and such.
Later I added the classification of foreign to $AVXL so I could add even more. The games we play. ;)
Interesting. Long timers remember the MS MTA xfer to $BIIB. I do wonder what became of it?
This publication may be of interest on this topic. Murine and preclinical data has been collected.
https://www.anavex.com/press-releases/anavex-life-sciences-announces-publication-of-foundational-data-for-anavex%C2%AE2-73-(blarcamesine)-in-multiple-sclerosis-(ms)
I should also note on the indication of MS, Biogen knows of the potential too. As there was a past material transfer agreement to investigate Blarcamesine with them.
Lots of opening upside gaps on the sectors I follow today.
Such is the art of the soft bash response to deviate into FUD narratives.
Some people just dwell in the negative, even when describing a positive. I have a hunch Rett will do much better than "scrape by".