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YEP, thought about it. But want confirmation of how Arcam will be operated and traded and never buy unless 'im convinced I can get out and I can't nibble my way out if needed. But I have and am thinking about that option especially with some of my profit which can use as a dice throw. Heck, threw the dice with sigma and the cubes are still tuning, LOL
Interesting info. If the speech is to be believed, GE will operate the company as a profit center, enhancing sales of machines to competitors, specifically 10000 machines in 10 years. That is a good sign for the pps eventually. I also like GE's beginning focus on software as well. Now that it has the 3d machine would covered, both laser and ebm it can move into the software end. Hello MTLS and Sigma..?????? Now will the stock volume and pps appreciate. With this volume, I could not initiate a meaningful position if I wanted.
LOL, I like that deal. Can I join in as the way both papa and baby arcam traded today we may need to make the market ourselves. Only problem is bet that unless its just because money is needed when one of us decides to sell all will.
My zombie fear looks like its coming to be , although I am surprised the zombie level seems to be with volume and not pps as I thought it would go down temporarily due to the lack of buying interest. I'm somewhat surprised that the completion of the deal hasn't gotten any news nor have we gotten any guidance. But then neither arcam nor ge are known for being forthcoming with info. If they hold a 4q cc, hope we find out a lot more. Would be nice to have a cc now with the completion of the deal.
But with the fact that the blades are not FAA certified yet per one poster, that GE has not taken delivery on their existing order, and that no other major aviation mfg has elected to EBM parts, it looks like those huge orders some keep shouting about are a ways in the future, if at all outside of GE
As I've said constantly, very optimistic, but looks like the timing is a lot slower than I hoped a year ago
More Predictions?? Do you still think GE needs 100% and will buy your shares at a high premium??? At least you recognize that the blades are not finally FAA approved and hence volume production can not commence. GE has not even taken delivery on the machines its bought, much less needs 100s more immediately. I'm also concerned about the low volume of the ADS, but surprised they haven't gone down. But good luck selling or buying any appreciable amount without moving the pps.
I do agree that the presentation was one of the best I've seen and enjoyed it. But noticed that he made no comment on the GE affect on operations. Might change the whole game or GE may let Arcam be, we shall see.
Why would they want to delay FAA approval?????? To what purpose???? Do you really think they are delaying FAA approval to get your shares cheaper????
Early, but don't like the trading.
IT is clear that the deal still has not shaken out but don't like the extremely small volume, for both papa and baby arcam, nor do I like the big moves at the start and end of day and little fluctuation between all on no news Also am curious about who is doing the buying and selling.
Watching closely, and things could change, but looks like its trading on speculation and not fundamentals. Can make some nice money on the volitlity but that's not my game.
I think I was right to sell my stock as don't think I could have sold yesterday and gotten 34 with my 4000 shares which I had left after selling my others at 34/35 earlier. Too little volume, would have bought pps down.
Now the question is whether to buy back in or not.
As I see it GE can do 3 things with arcam: 1. Operate it as an independent division and profit center. In which case there will be reason for the stock to appreciate but with the low volume don't know how effective it will be. 2. Primarily in the interests of GE, in which case the stock goes no where and the best play is with GE. 3. A combination of both, such as selling printers for experimentation and testing to competitors but not selling them in volume pleading capacity constraints
Watching and assessing. Others can pretend they know.
Thoughtful response which I appreciate with some flaws and some points I concur on.
First with respect to Elliot. It is clear that they simply want to extort a premium and do not care about operations or growth. They as much as said so, stating they thought the company was worth a higher pps. They buy just enough to be obstructionist and only after the tender is announced and then try to become a gad fly, flouting minority rights, simply to get a premium. Same with the bonds, bought at a discount, and then refused to comply with the renegotiated price. Just want to extort a premium and they do not hide that goal. But yes they do have patience and I give them that. But meanwhile have a lot of money tied up with not much growth. So do not see Elliot being bought out at a premium. Ge does not give in to obvious extortion.
I do not understand your points on compensation. Thought we were talking about the board and officers. They do get paid compensation in stock and GE would be the best. You have not rebutted. As far as employees, which I was not talking about,. Most will like the environment which gives them the most advancement potential and best money/benefit package. Your talk about other EBM sources/benefits is flawed, at this point arcam is the only EBM dance in town. Historically, GE does not have recruiting problems. So to reiterate my question, I do not see how EBM type employees can not simply go to Arcam as the only EBM game in town and how they can be incentivized in any manner that does not benefit GE, the owner, chief stockholder and biggest buyer. OPen to other options????
Thanks for the response, intellectual debate and analysis grows the discussion. Feel free to show where I am wrong but think the Elliot issue is clear and GE is the only EBM game in town for employees.
Well be interested to see the answers to my 3 questions in my other recent post. But the temporary strength in the pps shocks me. Wonder who is selling/buying and when this will end. Elliot is the likely seller, to recoup their losses, but who is buying, the diehards????, GE?????
You are one of the few with a good grasp of the situation. As iv'e said, the float is microscopic and will be interested to see how it trades. So far, I've been surprised with the pps going up. As I've posted, wonder who is buying and selling. But too early to tell how the trading will shake out till we see how things settle down. More importantly, how arcam will be operated, for GE's benefit, for profit as an independent company or a combination of the two. Will they support the pps or concentrate on expansion and research and not the numbers?? Who the heck will be selling as I assume GE won't and the diehards won't unless they need the money. Elliot may decide to give up and recoup some of their losses. BUt then, who is buying, is GE trying to get to 90% or are they happy now???
But I don't think GE will buy out Elliot at a premium, its not GE"s practice to cave to extortion. It can operate arcam nicely with 75%. But if they did buy out Elliot, bet it will be for or close to the tender price. Wonder if within 6 months, the remaining shareholders can be forced to sell for the tender price just like they would receive any premium for the 6 month commitment or does that only apply to increased prices?
We know what percentage GE now owns, and it wasn't reflected in the filings. But I wonder how it beaks down. Is the ADS float the same as the regular float, i.e. 15% or might the ADS be even less.
So my main questions are who is buying and selling the stock, how will GE operate the company and what is the remaining ADS float??? Anyone know any of these answers.
Agree for the most part. The fact that the pps has not gone down immediately is a good sign, although it does surprise me. I would be most interested in knowing who the sellers and buyers are as I assume GE and Elliot are not trading at this point and the diehards are holding. However, Elliot might be selling as its clear they lost their extortion and have to recoup their SLM losses. So who the heck is selling and are the diehards adding or is GE, in other words who are the buyers. Once thing settle down, I am not sure where the float will be coming from. Another point, how much of the remaining shares are the ADS, is their enough ADS left to be viable?
I disagree with you on the retail investor comment. While it is true that each individual holds a small amount of stock, individuals tend to move in herds or lemmings and when one moves they all tend to move for the same reason which makes the moves significant. They are also more susceptible to one ER report. Remember the q4 ER probably will be bad like SLM predicts given the deals which have reduced sales. GE no doubt did not buy any, heck they still have not taken delivery on the 10 they ordered a year ago. No other mfg has announced a commitment to volume EBM uses. So I predict a poor q4. That might spook the individuals.
The compensation plan is clear already. It will probably be in GE stock which means that the company will lean towards GE. Even if it is still in Arcam stock, because GE is the one big customer, Arcam needs GE sales to grow and to move the pps so once again GE's interests will be prime. Given that compensation is usually in stock, how do you see a compensation package which will not involve pleasing GE??
How can the 15% get out if they need to??? Probably if one segment gets spooked, they all well
I agree with your speculation. If the pps holds up, and the company operates in profit and not ge mode, and the float/trading holds up, I may well be buying back in. But did enjoy all those 34/35 sales.
Now to answer a few questions and speculations made in the last few days.
1. There is a difference between sales and tenders. If Elliot is bought out---they won't be===sellers will not be compensated. Tenders will be given the higher price for 6 months.
2. Ge does not need 100% or to pay holders 70 or 90 dollars and can operate GE nicely with 75%.
3. Arcam can favor GE in price and design. Ever hear of volume discounts?? GE can also act in a way to keep profits and the pps down though expansion, RD and so many other ways. In fact they've been doing it now.
4. The filings did not reflect the 76% GE owns
5. Arcam manufactures in Canada (powder) and Sweden (machines) so does not really affect US Jobs.
6. Minority protections go to process, secondaries and voting, and not daily operation.
7. That new sintering technology can spur sales but ONLY if scalable and if companies decide to use EBM for volume mfg.
Realty check, GE is a shareholder, in fact the biggest. So operating Arcam in GE's interest is operating Arcam for the benefit of most shareholders. And Elliot doesn't count as they are shareholders simply to extort a premium and not interested in the long term interests. So the question is between the 15% holdouts and GE, whom should the board be most concerned with. That question is simple and the minority protections go to process and not operation. What's the issue?
Oh, and guys, the compensation for the board and officers will likely be in GE stock. So guess whose interests trump??? And even if in arcam stock, since GE is the key customer and operator, guess whom gets the cat bid's seat. LOL
I'm shocked as well. Only event I can see is the end of the tender today, but that should cause a reduction as demand and news cycle ends.
As I've stated, interested in how the stock will trade post deal but this surprised me. Now lets see if it might have been a last buying spree by GE or some other causation. But now the issue is whether its worth buying back in and I did expect the price to go down. Although, the ADS is still below tender even with today's move. Will be interested also in seeing what ownership GE ends up with, how far the filings were off, and how they will operate the company, primarily as a profit center or for its own purposes. )
Oh, and the float is even less than you postulate. At most, the float is 15% (ge 75% AND eLLIOT 10) and probably much less as GE will have added and the die hards won't be selling. It may only be a 10% stock float and maybe even less than that as those not tendering will not be selling and Ge may now have more than we think.
Sailor has good points. Look around house for statements, trading actions and tax returns and see what names come forth. Review his internet activity, if she doesn't have a password go to an expert, and see which entities he dealt with. As Sailor says, there must be a track record showing with whom he made his trades, got his dividends and who supplied him with dividend/other info on a regular basis. THen check with them. He must have a trading/dividend record for tax purposes and that will supply leads. Another source might be the company or clearing entity who might have a record of his holdings although street name might be a problem. Would hope that the clearance entity would have a record of actual stock holders and not just the street name so they can insure payment/information exchanges. If it was me that died, all one would have to do is look around my house or go to my internet favorite places and surfing record to see what entities I used and what stocks I owned. Good luck to her. If she cannot access, an expert, with probate/legal authority, can access the net for her.
Good point, but prefer understanding what others say and evaluate same rather than just be ignorant which some apparently are fine with. I have been involved in many tenders, some stock, some cash, and this one was clearly all cash so why think GE stock would be forthcoming? Just an obvious question.
Same with GE having to buy out remaining stockholders. Why assume that need?, Cannon sure did not do so with axis? and there are a plethora of other examples. GE can now operate effectively with its ownership,75%+, despite the filings at the time, without buying any additional shares and watch Elliot and others sit.
You asked questions, I answered with my opinion and reasoning/analysis. Hold or not, I indicated how I decided and why. I've booked my profit and now can reinvest or reallocate as I desire. So far, the trading is not looking good.
But you are totally right I agree with the informative and intellectual exchanges that this site allows and it is very beneficial. But with 75%+, GE can operate nicely and effectively and does not need negotiate with anyone. That is my point.
Wonder how many of these printers are EBM and help Arcam sales??? Laser developments, while interesting, do not necessarily help Arcam, its sales or pps. So far the bulk of aviation parts going into volume mfg appear to be laser. Am I right???? Hope I am not
Sailor, I simply do not understand your perspective.
1. As you know now you will not be getting any GE shares or dividend. If you want GE shares, you need to buy them.
2. You imply that arcam will reap gains and the pps will go way up because of many of the articles you have read here. But if you drill down to the facts, many of these articles pertain to developments in the laser 3d print realm. While interesting and supportive of my belief in 3d printing, it does nothing to help arcam or its pps. All the laser developments in the world will not help arcam unless they involve EBM and enhance Arcam printer or powder sales. EBM printers are not used in the development of laser printed parts.
3. Why do you think GE has to buy more shares as you stated in your last post?. They can operate Arcam nicely with just 75% and simply watch your and Elliot's shares stagnant .
4. I know what Elliot wants and their goal. Its obvious. They want GE to pay them a premium. They have done this often. Bet GE won't and will let Elliot sit looking at their shares.
5. Why do you think GE cares about your shares or Elliot's for that matter. They will simply operate with their 75%. They will certainly not pay the 75 or 90 that some of the posters here expect. Just like I predicted that GE would accept less than 90% first and then less than 75%, they will simply operate Arcam and maybe gradually buy more at market, letting the remaining holders stew..
6 It is too early to tell, but so far Arcam is trading zombie like with reduced volume and little pps movement. Heck, the ADS is below tender. We shall see how it shakes out.
7. It remains an open question whether GE is buying these companies primarily for their own use or as a profit center. But they can do both. Sell an occasional printer for experimentation and testing but not provide the capacity for volume manufacturing and then reap profit by selling the parts or contract manufacturing them to satisfy the needs of othes' We shall see.
But just like you will not get GE shares, you cannot extract specific arcam positives from developments in the laser realm. GE can operate nicely without your shares, at 75% ownership and watch you and Elliot stew. If I was them, I would simply wait and buy gradually on the open market to slowly increase that ownership percentage without paying any more or taking any of your shares.
Just like I noted the unwarranted negatives of some, I note the unwarranted positives. I wish those posting articles on 3d printing, while interesting, would make more of a point of noting whether they are EBM related (relevant to arcam) or laser (not necessarily related to arcam.) JMHO
I have a lot of faith in 3d printing, both laser and EBM, but not sure how best to play it now. First, only interested in metal and not sure how EBM will shake out vs laser and how many ebm made parts will be made. Does anyone know how SLM has traded since GE left.
We seem to agree
Only a company that owns both, a laser and an EBM company can experiment and utilize the benefits of both. One good reason for Ge to buy both even though they already have Morris.
Pedal to the metal does make sense unless the cost of expansion and RD to satisfy both their needs and other's needs would increase the cost of expansion and development too much. Remember, arcam can only produce so many machines without costly expansion and GE may need the bulk of that capacity. Additionally, by not pushing market sales they can curtail competitor development and perhaps make money by selling the EBM/combination parts or develop revenue by making them on a contact basis. But it is a close question and I have no doubt that ge will take the course that makes them the most net money.
Again, i'm not questioning the one unit sale for experimentation and testing, but developing enough capacity to provide others with machines sufficient for volume manufacturing. Again, that is a close question. On the one hand, selling machines can enhance revenue and profit vs depriving competitors of the ability to develop EBM based parts or require them to come to GE for the mass produced parts after they develop the specifications they want though testing and experimentation.
But basically we agree. The only remaining question is how to play it.
Are these printed parts ebm or laser?. While interesting and to some extent appreciate all these articles on 3d printed parts, it would be nice to know if they are ebm or laser printed. We all know that more parts are being 3d printed. So from an arcam perspective, the question is whether they are ebm printed (arcam relevant) or laser (not arcam relevant). One of my concerns in the aviation sector is most of the parts seem to be laser printed which does not translate to ebm printer sales. The mere fact, as highlighted in red, that the production center bought one ebm printer does not mean that a significant number of parts are being ebm printed vs laser. So far, the only part that I know is contemplated for volume EBM manufacturing is the Avio blade. Does anyone know of others going into volume production which will necessitate multiple Arcam printers?????
To the extent possible, I think we all would like to know whether all these articles involve ebm or laser or both developments. In fact, to the extent that most of the 3d news is laser vs. ebm, that is negative for arcam despite the tone of the post .
Now that GE owns Arcam, as predicted with over 70% despite the filings (flaggings), the questions are how will Arcam trade and how will ge operate it. Will they focus on maximizing the benefit to just GE or will they focus on maximizing earnings and revenue which means optimizing sales to competitors and others as well?? Will they operate their new companies separated or will they attempt to combine the benefits of laser and EBM to maximize the efficiency of 3d part creation as only a company that owns both technologies can do? Will they use their vast manufacturing outreach, now with Baker as well, to speed up adoption of 3d throughout the manufacturing chain or simply focus on the areas where they are developing 3d now? All interesting questions and the answers will determine how well Arcam, GE and the entire 3d sector performs in the future. So far, and correct me if i'm wrong, only GE is actually gearing up to manufacture parts with EBM.
My big question, given their own extensive potential printer needs, and competitive advantage, will be whether they focus on their own printer needs or whether they will focus on the market in general. They could go either way. IMHO GE will focus on their own printer needs and not on expanding the EBM printer market. This is a close question. This is not to say that GE won't sell an EBM printer if the demand is there and the price is right.
It is to say that they won't gear up capacity or spend on technology to suit the VOLUME MANUFACTURING needs of competitors. This would include non volume sales to universities so they can develop and expand ebm uses. By doing that they can insure that their own technological needs are met and to the extent that EBM, alone or in combination with laser, can best make new parts, they can sell the parts or manufacture them on a contact basis rather than focusing on selling the printers.
One thing is certain, with the addition of GE's money, clout, people and technology, along with their own manufacturing demand, GE can certainly speed up EBM and laser technological development, adoption and expansion beyond what Arcam could have done alone. Having both technologies, I can see Ge experimenting with a combination of laser and EBM to maximize the efficiency of developing a LOT of parts in a LOT of sectors. Just my speculation.
That's simple, just like with axis, you will have the honor of sitting with your shares, hoping they might appreciate as they might go down and you have no market to sell your shares. I do not expect the shares to appreciate much in the near future as there might not be a market and there is no catalyst. For at least 6 months, GE will only buy at tender or below to avoid even the question of having to offer the same price to those already tendered shares. There might be no market and just like Elliot and the axis holders, you can simply watch the pps stagnate. That's the most likely scenario for a while.
Where did you even get the idea you would end up with ge stock?. Nope. Only way you will get GE shares is to buy them like I did with my profits. Too early to tell how the stock will trade but today did not look good.
You have one chance. if the stock does go down and/or there is no effective market, you have one more chance to tender by end of month. Either way, you will not get GE shares and where did you get that idea???
Vindication. Ge has 65%+, accepts less than 75% and will complete the deal. As I've said all along, the filings did not portend the final numbers and common sense telegraphed the end result based on what info we had as set forth in my posts.
Now lets see how the stock trades and whether it remains worth playing. Too early to tell so far.
Mitch wins 1st informer honors. Surprised he scooped some of the long timers here. Maybe they just didn't like the result???
I was wrong in not selling all at 34/35, that the EU would have a problem and that competitors would want to contest the buy. Still surprised at the silence.
Now GE can test both ebm and laser, determine which is best for each part and combine its technology advances for its benefit. IMHO it will increase the adoption of 3d.
PREDICTIONS: GE has 65%+ of the stock regardless of the filings or flaggings as some like. It will accept, the stock will continue to trade, but zombie like at least short term, with very small volume and movement. Of the remaining small float, there will be very little demand in the absence of a catalyst and ge, Elliot and the die hard longs will not be selling. This will be especially true with the ADS. The share price will take a dip in light of the lack of market and in a while if it looks like trading will improve along with arcam's progress, one may gradually buy back in, but only if it looks like a market exists. Myself, I sold all my remaining shares at market making a nice profit and will now play Arcam though ge until I see how things shake out. AT least for the 1st part, we should know Monday night, 2nd day following expiration. GE must have bought my shares as they were sadly below tender, and one poster said ge will buy all shares below tender, or they were bought by an arbitrage firm that will tender to GE for a nice profit assuring GE's taking control.
I am surprised given my rationale but that's fine. we will find out in a few days. Meanwhile, I sold all my remaining shares at a nice profit and we will see how many shares ge gets, whether it accepts as I think likely and then how the stock trades after. But all those who rely only on the filings will see GE has a lot more shares as we discovered at the last expiration.
Ditto. I have exactly the same idea except sold a bunch at 34/35. Will sell remaining at a nice profit and after see how it trades, have the buy back in option.
Do you agree GE probably has 60 to 70% locked now and will they accept that number??
Your thesis has already been proven wrong. Except for the 1st few days, the stock has been below the tender price, sometimes substantially and GE was not buying every share. In fact, they bought very little after the 1st day despite the low pps. So why would they buy every share below the tender price after the tender when they haven't during the tender when it would make a lot more sense. They could have gotten the shares a lot cheaper, often in the 270s rather than 300s which they offer now. Why would they buy after the tender at a highe pps when they didn't during????
To answer your question, the pps can go down or stagnate because of the lack of demand, the fact that the buyer is only buying a small percentage of the company and will only share a little of the revenue, that GE can keep earnings down by reporting high expansion costs and RD and the lack of sellers as there is no motivation for the remaining holders to sell. That's how the pps can go down or stagnate. Under either scenario, one can buy back in, pocket the profit and protect against the zombie danger
Do you not agree with me that GE has over 60% now and counting and that they will not walk???
But we will know in a few days and there after. The pps will go up, down or remain static and we will see if buying rather than keeping would be best. So far, what would have been best is selling all my shares at 34/35.
Answer, Absolutely. I totally agree that GE's buying enhances Arcam's growth potential. In fact, one reason the board voted for the deal may be that Arcam simply did not have the resources for the massive RD and expansion that such growth would require without GE's money, technology, people and clout. Rene already said the company was having trouble with people. He stated that was the biggest limiting factor. GE has people working with 3d, granted laser so far, but the Avio people have been working with Ebm as well. But research and expansion has been taking an enormous amount of capital and time and has been an anchor on the pps which has been weak as we all know. Heck some here have continuously posted that it will go back to the low teens. So the board may have realized that it could not achieve its growth without massive dilution, debt or both and that's why it went for the deal, something no one has mentioned when they have attacked the board. The board knows a lot more than we do.
So I agree totally with your premise. The only question is how to play it. One method is to play GE which will gain all those design and cost savings. As I've posted, just think of the additional parts that can be designed with 3d via the Baker deal.
You can simply hold your shares, foregoing the immediate profit and hope that you can play Arcam post tender even with the diminished float.
Or you can sell/tender and wait and see how the stock trades post tender. Because of the low float and GE control, will it be zombie like with no market, no volume and no pps action because it is such a small play on the company?. Or will it trade effectively and appreciate as the ebm printers increase in use. Then after the stock takes the short term dip that you admit is possible/probable, you can buy back in gradually because the volume will be low and play the appreciation from a lower basis and with your profits booked. How much it might dip, who knows, and GE may be a floor. Or it might not. As I see it, with the tender demand ended, and many remaining owners not in a sell mode, the pps will go down or stagnate. Under this scenario, if the stock continues to trade effectively, you can buy back in having booked the tender gain. Less risk and you avoid the danger of the zombie reaction if it happens, tying up money at a lower pps. Remember, right now, while others are testing and experimenting, ge is the only major company moving NOW towards industrialization and the only one almost at the industrialization stage.
It was said in post 5153, that GE had control of 49% Why repeat. Now, in your opinion does that include the 11% Mr. Twenton said Morgan bought for GE in posts 5105 and 5131???? Do you think they were included in a filing submitted the same day??. There is usually a 3 day lag. Just wondering. But if they weren't, that means GE has another 11%, not counting the revocable tendered shares you stated in that post we don't know how many. That's a nice chunk, over 60%. Now will GE accept that level as it will probably be below 75% and with a stoke of the pen take control??. That is the question. The second question is how will the stock trade post tender with a minimized float.
Do you know Goldman bought its 5% to control or did they buy the shares for a client????
How many shares do you speculate have been tendered???? 5%, 10%, more, less???? As you said in post 5153, we don't know that amount but it will bring GE's share count higher. It will be ending soon. Most brokers cut off the tender on Tuesday.
Good point. But why would they buy now if true. They waited during the period when the stock was tanking. That was the time to buy. And now that its appreciated due to the new deal, and may well go down as the ge demand ends, why buy now. If I was a smart investor would tender as its higher than the pps and wait to see how the stock trades. Don't want to be stuck with a zombie, with a GE approach which does not support the pps and considering that it will probably go down as the GE/speculators, buying will subside short term while the company gets its footing. There is still a possibility also that ge might walk away if it doesn't get 75% which it might not get. 70% likely, 75 less.
The real question is not what someone is doing with a mere 5% which seems to excite some but whether my analysis is correct and GE has well over 60% of the shares and whether they will accept that level and take ownership, leaving the remaining float miniscule. what thinks you??
WELL ITS ALMOST OVER WITH GE LIKELY CONTOLLING 60%+ OF Arcam. This figure is based on Charlie's post suggesting that GE had 49% as of 10/27 and M. Trenton's posts that GE bought another 11% though Morgan (posts 5105,5131 and 5153.) Its clear that the 10/27 filing did not include the Morgan 11% since they were bought on the same day as the filing which was obviously prepared before that date. Takes some time for trades to be reflected on filings (or flaggings as some prefer) Moreover as both posters now admit these numbers do not include the revocable tenders which will increase the ownership level much more.
Does anything think GE will walk away from 60%+ of Arcam with what we know today??. Does anyone disagree with my reasoning or analysis or with the basic numbers provided by the posters?? Thus it looks like its a done deal and given that the pps is below tender, I and probably others will tender Monday adding to ge's percentage. In this scheme, the Goldman shares are either for GE or will simply add to the Elliot, die hard and goldman minority holders. If from a competitor, as some postulate, what influence will 5% have on operations????
Anytime KR, but not sure you are right but I don't know about the nuances of Swedish law. But even if the stock continues to trade because GE does not have 90%, ge will own 60 to 70 or more percent of Arcam and Elliot another 10%. With such ownership, will Arcam continue to have to hold CCs, will they have an independent ER and have all the regulatory requirements of a public company or will their earnings and regulatory responsibilities be subsumed by GE Sweden. It defies logic for a stock with only 10% to 20% public ownership to have the same reporting responsibilities as a fully owned public company but they may. Do you have actual knowledge or just making assumptions.
BUt I do beg to differ, it is a subsidiary just like Axis is a subsidiary of Canon, even though it still trades, and does Axis have the same responsibilities as it did when fully public.
Anyway good luck on retaining your shares. I will either sell or tender and then consider buying back if it trades well. Meanwhile, will also buy some ge with my profits. Good luck on you approach but that is my two cents.
KR, the means to keep the stock low, if GE desires is easy and without nefarious dealings. First the float will be extremely low and the demand low as many might not want to buy a stock where they will only have 10% to 20% of the assets, considering GE, Elliot and hard core holders.
Second who knows how much information the public will get. While arcam will trade on the exchange, if ge does not get 90%, it will be only a subsidiary of GE Sweden and how much info re sales and vision and even CCs will they need to provide.
Third, they can keep the Arcam numbers down easily and in many ways just like Rene has. Spend a lot on R and D and expansion, which would be done anyway which will keep profits down and hence investment interest down. It could be these needs that caused the board to vote yes. Even with huge GE sales, if the RD and expansion keep the eps down, then interest will stay down. I'm bullish long term as I've said but suspect weak pps short term as arcam gears up for those big orders. And you always have the chance of buying back in if the stock trades well. Given the way the pps was performing before the deal, i'm happy with the tender, will buy into GE and if trading is acceptable will buy back into Arcam with my profits as i'm double and triple on my shares.
Then sue them if you think they took unfair advantage. Many have sued if they thought insider info was involved or fiduciary duty was beached. But how can you say its inside information when those orders will be made by GE and GE has all along known what they, themselves, will do. Its the usual risk of relying on one customer too much. And given your new posts, not the ones where you said no bulk orders, but the later ones when you said GE would make a lot of bulk orders, where is the inside info??? So I do not think GE stoled our shares as we all can decide whether to tender or not and most are tendering and you sold, then bought back, then sold at a loss. So what GE has done is above board and you have been posting that this would happen for 2 years. Even if GE adjusted their buys to weaken the pps, that is simply playing hard ball and many companies do it for their benefit. Where are the damages, as we got a 70% premium and a new 12 month high.
But you are right on the sales vs tender argument as I've said before. Best to sell and more efficient to sell vs tender if the prices are close. I've done that and i'm debating on that now with my remaining shares for reasons I've specified in other posts. I see that you also now agree with me on the zombie trade risk which I raised weeks ago. Don't know if it will happen, but danger is there.
You disagreement is misplaced at least in part.
1. Selling in some cases is cheaper than tendering. At least for Scott, selling costs $7, tendering is subject to a $25 fee. Thus selling is cheaper and more efficient as get the money sooner and no risk of withdraw
2. Selling can yield a higher profit. For example, I sold 2/3 of my shares at market, getting 34/35 and this was under the 285 deal. So selling yielded more money. May still happen as the ADS is near the tender price and could go above which is what i'm waiting to see. But since it is unlikely that ge will up at all, definitely not within 6 months, the tender make whole provision is kinda moot.
But you are right, I don't think GE will walk as it already controls 60% per the 49% Charlie reports and the additional 11% from Morgan Stanley which Mr. twenton reported, none of which counts the revocable tender shares. GE will be happy, the pps probably will go down short term and Elliot and the hard core holders can watch as others will buy back cheaper assuming arcam shows that it will trade efficiently post tender.
Good questions, some flawed assumptions and now my 2 cents, point by point.
1. What I've done:. Sold 2/3 at market at 34/35, highs for arcam and well above the tender. Sold a little more with stop losses as the pps went down. Why tender when you can make more and with less hassle and more security by simply selling. Which is what I did. Now if the pps gets up a little higher, to the tender price or above will sell my remaining shares at market avoiding the delays and hassles of the tender and getting the same money or more. If the pps does not get above the tender, then I will tender probably on Friday or Monday my remaining shares.
Now to address you questions:
2. IMHO GE doesn't care a fig about Elliot. Yes they would like to punish them but in the scheme of things they will be just as happy having elliot simply stew. But they don't care about the share price either as they have no intention to sell. It might help their balance sheet to show some appreciation but that won't be a major concern. So don't expect GE to make efforts to up the pps.
3. There is a danger of Arcam suffering from zombie trading with very little volume and minimal stock movement. Thus it will be hard to make money on shares quickly and you may loose the profit you have made from the pre tenders pps. Arcam has been a low float, low volume, stock to begin with. How much will it trade when GE owns 60 to 70% of the float or more, Elliot owns 10% and die hard holders like you and some posters here are not selling their shares. May be hard to sell after tender if you need to and the pps may be weak. It certainly has been weak though the tender period. Therefore you may be stuck with zombie shares, tied up money and lost the profit you could have made as GE will have no incentive to buy more once it has control unless it can get to the 90% level.
Remember Elliot is in a big pickle. They are stuck with SLM 20% and that pps has gone way down and is not moving at all, Its a zombie. They are stuck in Arcam where GE has promised not to raise the price and there is no competing bid. And GE will have no interest in moving the pps. They also are in Alcoa which hasn't done much. THat is a lot of money tied up in the 3d game. GE might be willing to allow them to get out at a loss because as I've said they could care less if Elliot is there. In which case, you will either be stuck with you shares as there is no market for them, you will be offered what Elliot is offered and if GE gets to 90% they will force you to sell at whatever Elliot gets, probably less than the tender and you will have tied up your money for the period. Bet M. Twenton hasn't done too well with his axis shares but he hasn't responded to my questions.
Arcam directors won't care PPS wise either as their compensation most likely will be in GE, not arcam, stock. In fact the only non GE holders of arcam probably will be die hards like you and Elliot.
Lastly, what i'd advise is selling/tendering all the shares as I think with the lack of GE demand, and its low float, arcam will go back to the pre tender price, certainly stay below the tender offer. Then see how the stock trades. If OK, and you think arcam will get those big orders, buy back at a lower price. If not, invest in GE and other entitles and ride the stock up. Just think how many printers GE will need to print all those Baker parts, some of which will be compatable with EBM.
Anyway my two cents. In sum, get best price you can on all your shares and then consider whether to rebuy after you see how the new arcam will act.
Methinks he was asking about how enforceable are the nonrevocable tender deals ge made with a couple of institutions which were announced along with the extension and offer increase. And some of them are contingent on their being no competing offer 10% better. But with the pps underwater, their being no competing bid, and completion looking good why revoke. Look how quiet Elliot is being.
My question to you is does this latest filing quoted in great detail by Charlie reflect the 11% you posted about on 10/28 and if not GE is at almost 60% without even counting the revocable tenders. Now even he admits the filings don't tell us how close ge is towards its goal.
This filing probably does not cover the 11% bought by Morgan Stanley reported by Mr. Twenton on 10/27. How could stock purchased throughout the day this report was filed incorporate these shares?. If does not include these shares, than GE has another 11% guaranteed or 60% ish of Arcam. And as you admitted, does not include any tendered shares that are revocable. Do you not agree that this filing does not include this 11%?. At 60+% I think GE will accept. Why not include this 11% in your hypothetical numbers. But at least you now agree, we don't know how far GE is towards its goals as at least tendered shares are unknown. Don't even know if it includes possible contingent agreements which promise GE shares absent higher bid.
Why withdraw with higher offer, no new bid and weak pps?? Lets apply common sense and logic. The only percentage that matters is the number at termination and whether GE accepts them and the ownership they represent with a pen stroke. The number I go by, although some are revocable, but why revoke, is the 46% that GE says it controls and the additional buy the next day which might bring its controlling number to 57%, but as I've said, we don't know. But I guarantee its over 27%. Heck it was over 27% at the end of the last period and that does not include all the new tenders and buys that we know about. GE could have simply accepted that 30+% ownership percentage with a pen stoke.
But keep speculating, I'll rely on hard numbers and logic, but realize that we won't know till the end and how GE will react if less than 75%. I've posted my hope chest, LOL.
Your point?? Many small holders sold and will sell on the open market for the reasons I've specified in other posts. Just as disclosed, trader and I have as well as many other posters. So our retail shares were probably bought by ge or earlier Elliot interests. Remember all those trades you post about are usually brokers/institutions who are buying for undisclosed clients. We don't know who but given the lack of other interests and that Elliot has its 10%, I must assume most is for GE or entities that want to enhance their clout with GE. Heck GE can buy over market and still be under Tender and somebody is buying the ADS today. I'm holding to see what happens with my remaining shares and if the price gets over 33, I will sell my retail shares, if not, I will tender. But who cares how GE got its 46% or 57% if you count that Thursday buy, the day after the 46% was announced. The important fact is GE now has 57% and counting. Now, even if they get no more, will they accept about 60%. That is the question I have, not how the 60% is constituted. But that is just me
My best scenario is that GE accepts 60 to 75%, I add more GE and assuming arcam trades efficiently post tender, to buy back and ride ge's clout both via Arcam and GE stock. Meanwhile pocketing a nice profit as all my shares will be for over 100% profit. Nothing to sneeze at. And other than GE and maybe rebuy arcam where do I put all that profit. Nice problem.
All those Baker parts to be 3d printed.
Right now, the only manufacturing company which is jumping into the 3d mass production phase is GE. Competitors and others are experimenting and testing but GE is way ahead in usage. I suspect they will be working on a lot of oil field parts to be 3d printed and with their money and clout they can make it happen. Just think how many printers, both laser and ebm that might involve and GE can make those printers now and experiment with which is best for a particular part, ebm or laser. I like the way GE thinks and I also own them and might buy more. With their digital strategy, soft and hardware, they are in the best position to make sea changes in manufacturing and make substantial profit from it. Given that the new company will hold all of Baker's oil/gas divisions, what will Baker have left??
With all the negatives, which I considered flawed, I am shocked that you consider buying back. But then I thought it was flawed to buy back after you sold all and now sell for a loss. IF you wanted to play the higher bid, just don't sell in the fist place IMHO.
What is the company involved In, where is a good source for DD and can USA investors participate in the IPO or after market??.
Charlie got different info from fidelity where I have an account. Talked to their phone representatives and unless they told me an untruth, I cannot sell my ADS on the Swedish exchange for the equivalent of 298 which it sold at today. Was told that I could only sell the ADS at the USA price and would need to hold the actual Arcam shares (non ADS) to sell on the Swedish exchange for 298/299 and yes there would be a higher fee. So either I was misinformed, you are talking about regular shares or you have more clout then I have. They refused my desire to sell my ADS on the Swedish exchange or for a price more equal to the 288/298 SEK. Would be interesting to know how many others have been able to sell their ADS for the Swedish price and whom they used.
THanks for again repeating the percentage levels. Interesting, unless I read them wrong, If ge ends up with 30%, which they own now, they will have to submit, within 4 weeks, a new offer to all remaining holders to buy them out. So we may have yet another tender if they have 30% Right???
Why buy back only to sell at loss and then make a point to tell all??. But I agree that GE has no incentive to support the pps and has an interest in it continuing to be weak. I also agree that if the bid fails, the pps will tank short term. My decision is to sell on market and avoid the tender risks or take the higher tender price with its risks. My hope is the pps appreciates close to the tender price. But assuming GE will take less than 75% I think the bid will win and the fact that its buying more on market and made clear in its bid that it has the option to take a lower percentage suggests that GE will take less than 75% and since by my calculations it has control of almost 60% it will go with the deal. We shall see but given its clearly indicating its option to take less than 75%, the weak pps and the lack of a new bid suggests it will go for operational control which it effectively has now, filing lovers not withstanding.
As an aside, interesting that GE is talking about buying/partnering with Bake Hughes. Just think how many oil service parts can be made via 3d. GE can create a lot of demand for its 3d printers.