Agree for the most part. The fact that the pps has not gone down immediately is a good sign, although it does surprise me. I would be most interested in knowing who the sellers and buyers are as I assume GE and Elliot are not trading at this point and the diehards are holding. However, Elliot might be selling as its clear they lost their extortion and have to recoup their SLM losses. So who the heck is selling and are the diehards adding or is GE, in other words who are the buyers. Once thing settle down, I am not sure where the float will be coming from. Another point, how much of the remaining shares are the ADS, is their enough ADS left to be viable?
I disagree with you on the retail investor comment. While it is true that each individual holds a small amount of stock, individuals tend to move in herds or lemmings and when one moves they all tend to move for the same reason which makes the moves significant. They are also more susceptible to one ER report. Remember the q4 ER probably will be bad like SLM predicts given the deals which have reduced sales. GE no doubt did not buy any, heck they still have not taken delivery on the 10 they ordered a year ago. No other mfg has announced a commitment to volume EBM uses. So I predict a poor q4. That might spook the individuals.
The compensation plan is clear already. It will probably be in GE stock which means that the company will lean towards GE. Even if it is still in Arcam stock, because GE is the one big customer, Arcam needs GE sales to grow and to move the pps so once again GE's interests will be prime. Given that compensation is usually in stock, how do you see a compensation package which will not involve pleasing GE??
How can the 15% get out if they need to??? Probably if one segment gets spooked, they all well
I agree with your speculation. If the pps holds up, and the company operates in profit and not ge mode, and the float/trading holds up, I may well be buying back in. But did enjoy all those 34/35 sales.
Now to answer a few questions and speculations made in the last few days.
1. There is a difference between sales and tenders. If Elliot is bought out---they won't be===sellers will not be compensated. Tenders will be given the higher price for 6 months.
2. Ge does not need 100% or to pay holders 70 or 90 dollars and can operate GE nicely with 75%.
3. Arcam can favor GE in price and design. Ever hear of volume discounts?? GE can also act in a way to keep profits and the pps down though expansion, RD and so many other ways. In fact they've been doing it now.
4. The filings did not reflect the 76% GE owns
5. Arcam manufactures in Canada (powder) and Sweden (machines) so does not really affect US Jobs.
6. Minority protections go to process, secondaries and voting, and not daily operation.
7. That new sintering technology can spur sales but ONLY if scalable and if companies decide to use EBM for volume mfg.
