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Interesting article and refreshingly informative. However, it omits several key points. 1. Given the advantages of 3d printing which is accepted, which is a better technology and will produce the bulk of needed parts, ebm or laser. 2. When will volume 3d part production finally begin, its taken a lot longer than I thought and explains the weak pps. Heck, last 4 quarter ERs have shown poor sales and deliveries and we will see what happens this quarter. Probably no cc again as the company cares not for minority shareholders. 3. Despite all the noise around 3d printing, and less so about EBM 3d printing, there have been few announcements of companies actually planning to go into 3d part production and less so re EBM. Hope I'm wrong, and please correct me as it will make me feel better, but so far the only ebm 3d aircraft part I've heard that will be volume produced is the ebm blade and that will not even start volume production till 2018 or later. Heck, GE only ordered 10 machines or perhaps just offered a 2nd order of 10 as one poster suggested. I've not seen the actual announcement but then not looked for it. Not the thousands that Trader shouted we would have in a year.
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I am amused at the discussions re Arcam getting to 40. As I predicted, the stock is trading zombie like and look at the miniscule number of shares that brought it to 40 and then the equally small number of shares that caused it to dive below 40 and then back above 40.
The stock moves on very little volume. One of the reasons I finally sold was as I predicted the stock would trade zombie like. At my height, considering hot trading shares and investment shares I had over 8000 shares. I sold all, even though I still liked the company, because with the low float post merger god help me if I had to sell a lot at one time due to emergency needs. Might have cost me $20 or more per share. I'm still positive on the stock but given the low performance during 2016 quarters and the fact that its obvious the company is focused on GE and not the market, not sure if I would still be in.If no additional parts, arcam's scope will be limited and even with mass production will GE allow us to profit or will it take the company fully into its nest before the real sales begin. But still very interested in the sector and company but cannot consider buying until the trading improves God help you longs if you have to sell an appreciable number of shares and given current trading that number may be anything over 100 shares.
Some thoughts and observations: Unless I missed something, all this release showed was that Arcam was presenting its wares at an expo. I could not discern any news at all.
Generic GE news and generic 3d sector news doesn't improve my insight or understanding of how Arcam is progressing. My concerns, which the company does not placate, are not addressed in repeated PRs or news releases from GE and other sector leaders. As the right of the screen suggests this is the arcam board and we need info about the arcam stock and company.
For example, knowing that GE is spending a lot on 3d is well known and may be pertinent to GE of which I also own stock. but does not help on the arcam issue. How much money is ge giving to arcam. Based on what I DISCERN FROM POSTINGS HERE, GE IS GIVING A Lot more to concept that arcam. In its sample plants, how many arcam printers are in place vs concept and other machines. will the new GE model printer use laser vs arcam technology. Will it have any Arcam technology in it?? All the posters here assumed that this prnter and all the money GE is spending impacts Arcam. Not necessarily so. Besides the Avio blades is GE, any other company, contemplating ebM parts or so far are the blades it. When will the 9x and EBM blades reach the mass production level, thus needing a lot of printers. So far we are receiving no information and just because GE is spending money on 3d does not mean Arcam is advantaged.
Moreover, lets face it the stock, both ADS and original are performing zombie lack with pathetic volume (papa arcam sometimes having even less volume than baby and baby sometimes not selling at all.) God help anyone trying to buy or sell any appreciable amount without destroying the pricing. And amongst the few divergent postings, Photogenesis seems to be the topic of choice on this board and my concern is whether the manufacturing of powder, using the same or better technology than APC which got its machines and technology from Photogenesis will hurt apc SALES. APC for the last year has been the one strong spot for arcam, with arcam sales lackluster since 2015 and Di Santo a trouble spot. We shall see but would be nice to get some real ARCAM news and see that the EBM technology is being adopted by others.
Suddenly I'm seeing ads for Arcam all Over. On the yahoo home page, tv guide, etc. To what purpose??? Most readers are not in the market for an expensive printer. LOL. I note that again, these articles and posts do not reference whether they are eBM or not. THe fact that GE is investing a lot in 3d is moot for Arcam. The key is how much of that money will go to EBM. Generic 3d is interesting but not necessarily helpful for Arcam despite all the euphoria I see on this board. Lets see companies commit to EBM before we get excited.
At least seeing some other posters. Lets see less repeat of generic articles and more company related info. At least that is my wish. Any concur?? How many times do we need to see that GE is spending 3d money without any juxtaposition to this company??
Hope Photogenesis, which supplies APC machines, is not using technology which will supplant APC leadership.
Finally someone sees the key issue, every 3d announcement is not positive for Arcam. The new GE printer suggests it will not be using EBM despite all those that assumed it would and posted, only one GE part so far has been awarded to EBM and the bulk of expansion and tech money seems to be going to laser and Concept. That can change but of all the articles and posts I've been reading by about the only poster till recently on this board has been posting non arcam and non EBM stuff without of course clarifying that point.
Neverless, the point is how many of those 10000 outside and 1000 inside GE printers will be EBM, how many new parts will be EBM based and not laser and how many of those experimenting with EBM will Ochoose to volume make parts using EBM technology. That is the key. I invite those to respond, do anyone know of any other, and I mean any, aviation part announced to be volume produced via EBM. So far I've only heard of the blade and that will be in the future with GE not even taking delivery of the machines bought yet.
On photogenesis, I've kicked myself as well but did not know if their technology was better than APC and when they would get going but its obvious that demand for powde will be huge. GE guaranteed their supply by buying APC Now who will win the remainder, APC, photogenisis or both. We shall see. But for a year the only bright spot has been APC and I hope that continues. We need more announcements of decisions for volume EBM parts by GE and others and not just generic good news and assumptions that all good news pertains to Arcam.
OBSERVATIONS AND COMMENTS
Been reading and studying for a while but now that more posters and varied thoughts have returned, I felt it time to give some of my 2 cents.
1. Lately its been essentially a one person board, one poster and an occasional disciple responding whose points were often flawed. Sadly, many of these posts only involved generic 3d information not related to Arcam and sometimes totally different companies despite the warning to the right of this screen to focus on arcam.
2. It is clear that my fears have been realized. Baby arcam has become a zombie without volume. Good luck selling even 500 shares without affecting the price Papa arcam is almost as bad with its volume sometimes below the american ADS. Shocking. I had 5000ish long term shares and 2000 hot shares and feared that I could not sell if necessary post merger and have been proved right.
3. The latest posts show the topic problem. GE announced that it would sell 10000 printers outside the company, 1000 used in the company and that it was developing a new large bed printer. ALL posters assumed that this was great for arcam. Ridiculous. A careful reading of the various articles and announcements reference GE's 3d generic guidance and vision not necessarily applicable to Arcam. My reading is those numbers and the new printer do not necessarily involve arcam and may well be laser based and a concept laser product. Subsequent clarifications from Carlie confirm this. Note that GE has announced 100 million expansion for concept laser (figures are from memory) and if Charlie is right about 1.3 million (the unsolicated contribution from an unnamed shareholder) that is minor compared to this. So the news may be more positive for concept than arcam.
4. Reading a lot of 3d articles and information on 3d I notice a lot of positives about laser and not so much about EBM. While I've read a lot of companies have experimented with EBM, only GE through avio has committed to use EBM in production and that is only for 1 blade. Am I not right?. Hope i'm wrong. But can anyone point to any aviation entities that are planning to use EBM in mass production. And even with GE, its a long time in the future. So far, the 9x, the only engine announced for EBM so far will be years before its in production. Avio has not even taken full delivery on the 10 printers bought in Dec 2015 much less ordering the thousands in 2016 ad 2017 that Trader, Sailor and others said would happen. Its simply taking a lot longer than I and most anticipated.
5. I would love to hear specific announcements for EBM mass production of parts, but still waiting.
6. I've followed the photogenesis information with great interest. It may be bad news for arcam. Will a lot of competitors decide to use these machines rather than APC machines to fulfil their powder needs. Technology is the same or photogenesis may be better if its using newer technology than APC. Not sure on this point but the powder will be the same and competitors may prefer not buying from GE. In the last ERs, APC has been the only good news for Arcam.
8. It is clear that GE is in full control of Arcam and all those posters that said Ge would need and would pay for 90% or more are proven wrong. Moreover, all that talk about the minority shareholders having input are also proved wrong as its clear that GE is in full control of the board and the remainders are hangers on with no input and assuming every GE 3d vision applies to us.
9.To Sailor, yes Elliot buying in to Arcam and the other companies it bought into after mergers were announced is just extortion. I can use that term as a descriptive noun even though it may or may not equate to the criminal definition. Does anyone think Elliot is in Arcam to spur its business model and for the long term rather than just trying to get a better pps buyout. That to me is extortion practices. Anyone disagree???? Doing the same thing with that other company and with Arconic. Does anyone believe Elliot would contribute money for Arcam RD. LOL Does anyone think I should be banned for this opinion???
Bottom line, i'm less bullish on Arcam than I was. Not sure I can buy or sell shares in a normal fashion given the low volume and float. While bullish on 3d, not sure how much of the sector will involve EBM versus laser. Hope I'm wrong but need to hear more announcements that production will involve EBM. This last GE announcement suggests the contrary as my take is that the new GE printer will be laser and not EBM based. Hope I;m wrong but we will see. The competition from photogenesis may hurt APC, the one positive spot for Arcam in 2016. Lets here more about Arcam and EBM progess and make clear that many of these posts do not even involve Arcam, like the new GE printer which all assumed would benefit Arcam. Many simply involve basic 3d
Thanks for the post. Interesting. As Rene said many CCs ago, a big limit to EBM adoption is the lack of trained experts This academy will help with the adoption of EBM, both from an operation standpoint developing more people that can operate EBM printers effectively and qualitatively and with people to design new procedures and parts that can be EBMed leading to adoption of new EBM uses and sales of machines to make them. Will take time, but a good development. My frustration with the 3d sector is and has been how long its taking to develop. Per one of your posts, if I recall accurately, only 65 engines will be produced using EBM parts in 2018 and that to me is not mass production. So we might have to wait to 2019 for real production and sales?????
Then why post it or give such extensive coverage. Makes sense for the GE board, not necessarily for Arcam. Nice discussion of GE aviation and composite materials, brief mention of additive manufacturing but nothing related to Arcam or EBM as is true of so many posts. In fact reading to my right of screen, I see reference to not posting about other stocks and to remain focused on arcam.
What we need is less GE, Alcoa and other references and more EBM and arcam related info.
The posters that indicated that this last ER was good or not as bad as expected were way off in my humble opinion. This ER was awful, every growth metric was poor. 12% I recall revenue growth which is not good for a growth stock. More significantly on every metric Arcam was either equal or worse in 2016, specifically on deliveries, sales and backlog. This is awful for a growth stock. In addition all the mention of the great pps rise was due to GE not organic. PPS was very poor before GE deal.
In addition, those posts including articles suggesting Arcam was the best 3d stock in 2016 and 2017 were flawed in my IMHO. In 2016, DDD had the best year and it achieved its results organically. The significant pps rise for Arcam was due solely to the GE deal and as I mentioned above, Arcam's 2016 metrics were poor. For 2017, it is too early to tell but Gary Anderson said the best 2017 stock would be Sigma which he just posted. But I don't see the posters or readers noting these viable factors as they post the comments.
Don't get me wrong, I'm still bullish on Arcam, but a lot less so especially on the time frame. Despite all the generic articles some think necessary to post so often, I don't see many reflecting decisions to use/expand EBM in aviation part mfg. While one poster spent a lot of time talking about fuel nozzles, I remind him they are laser and not EBM produced. So far the only EBM part i'm hearing GE talk about is the blades and none others. I would like to hear more about other EBM parts being EBMed.
For the poster who said arcam is trading well and gradually moving up or that GE has made a lot of unannounced buys, I must disagree. The stock has been trading zombie like with papa arcam not moving much and having ridiculous volume with total volume often less than 3000 shares and sometimes in the hundreds. Baby arcam is even worse with sometimes no volume and often in the small hundreds. Again with little pps movement. That is not good trading and is zombie like. God help anyone having to sell an appreciable amount.
I also note those that thought GE should have paid 70 to 90 pps, that GE would not accept less then the announced minimum amount and that they would continue to have influence over the company were flawed. I am amused at all those posts saying they expected guidance with this last ER. Facts. Ge got the company for their pps, at 73% tender and that remaining holders have no influence with no CC (despite some saying there would be) no imput into the director selection and no say in operations.
Also to the post that Elliot was not extorting, was simply blocking, and protecting their interests I note that Elliot, like with Axis, only bought in after the deal and bought just enough to prevent the 90%. Facts: Elliot did not buy into Alcoa in big amount till after Arcam so protecting Alcoa investment was not a reason and just like with other companies Elliot is tying to be a gad fly to get more money which is the definition of extortion. Does anyone think that Elliot bought into arcam when they did to protect their interests in Alcoa given the timing and circumstances or that they want to 0perate Axis or Arcam rather than just get a higher PPS?. Same with Alcoa. Does anyone think they achieved any blockage or that they wanted to block the deal rather than get a higher pps. Poster, that is extortion.
Cleos did not miss anything. The regs were just noise. Buying one share of stock would allow enty so entry is about 35 dollars. So the point of the post???? More relevant would be your comments on the CC, the way the stock is trading, the lack of minority input and speculation as to how the ER will be and how arcam, and not the generic 3d sector is performing. JMHO but those and other direct arcam issues are what i'm focused on.
No comments on the CC or lack thereof????? Haven't seen any reference to a CC tomorrow, time or phone number. Just the earnings release and a phone number to contact the company on the ER release. No details whatsoever on a CC which is a substantial change. How to you marginalized holders feel who think you have input on director selection or company ops. Now I could have missed it but haven't in the past. Sailor must not have bought many shares today as he indicated he would as the volume for both types remains pitiful with baby arcam passing 30 shares, that's right a whole 30. Would have fun buying 1000 or trying to sell a 4000 holding.
Looks like my fears and predictions were right, The stock is selling zombie like with an inability to move a significant trade and the remaining holders are marginalized with no effective input and no CC. The special meeting will underscore how little input the marginalized 3% have in actual ops or ability to effectively trade the stock. That is sad as i'd like to get back in.
In addition, anyone who would give any credence to that Motely Fool article on Arcam being the best 2017 3d buy needs to actually read that article. First the article says the pure play 3d companies will have problems competing with GE and HP, then she says Arcam is the best pure play 3d company minimizing that its owned by GE. LOL. Then she brags about her pick and the pps appreciation without noting that almost all of that appreciation was GE related with the pps doing very poorly before the GE offer.
Actually, the best performing stock in 2016 was ddd which got its appreciation without a buy deal. So that article was flawed in many aspects including the viability of trading in the stock with its low volume and demand So many missteps in that article why post it especially since it could be easily accessed on the yahoo arcam site initially?? Like so many articles posted that relate to generic 3d or laser and plastics and not Arcam EBM metal stuff. What we need is more announcements of EBM produced parts in volume.
Enough Generic info. All that regulatory noise is interesting to some, and I appreciate the notification of the change, but my key question is whether their will be a CC. Tomorrow is the 7th and by the day before usually CC info is provided. So now that GE owns 76% and Elliot 10%, has the company decided that the remaining minority are not worth a CC????? I may have missed something, but I've seen no CC info in your posts or on the web site nor has the company emailed me any info.
So the question is will there be a CC and if so when. If no CC, that means info will be even less than it was before despite all those posts about how much info and guidance we will get. Another question will be how detailed the new ER reports will be but we will see that tomorrow. I fear it might be light given the circumstances despite the posts to the contrary. Remember, I postulated that the CCs and news might be diminished after the GE buy and marginalization of the less than 3% individual stock holders unless a lot of those are included with the institutional holdings.
Sailor, I may be missing something, but again I don't see the substance behind your shout.
Where is all the EBM promotion????? As everyone knows I'm bullish on Arcam but like I rebutted the zealous bears I must take umbrage with the unsupported bulls, like those shouting that GE should pay 70 to 90 pps. The post you responded to had nothing promoting EBM and while I've seen a few posts containing articles referencing EBM, most merely mention generic 3d info or simply conceptual info. If you have seen a lot of specific EBM promotions, i'd love to see them.
On the sales issue. I know you posted that GE had made a lot of unannounced buys. But I must confess I doubt that. Especially since GE has not even taken delivery on what they bought. More importantly, besides some abstract comments on EBM, as far as I know the only part contemplated for volume production is the blades and then only a few of the blades. I don't know of any other part contemplated for production. Even more significantly, from a lack of promotion aspect and sales potential, I know some other final users are exploring and experimenting with EBM but haven't head them commit to any EBM part. Have you?????
So I hope you add a lot of shares, i'd love to see the pps reaction. But as far as mass promotion and potential sales, I'd love to see the basis of your shouts. Hope you are right, but I don't see it.
To respond to another of you predictions, I don't see any evidence of ultimate users going to same day part delivery with mass manufacturing facilities located around end uses. Because of the cost of the machines, and the need for trained personnel, for years, manufacturing will be done in centralized locations and shipped to end uses like now. Because of improved delivery, most parts can be sent within 2 days and maybe sooner. Also most aircraft maintenance is done on a schedule and can be accomplished by having a plane flown close to a part provider. Even FAA maintenance mandates usually give a few days lead time so that the plane can be flown to the part provider. Remember Sailor its not just the software that is needed. You need the hardware, the trained personnel and some quality control expertise to satisfy FAA requirements. A nice concept, i.e. immediate delivery, but does not necessarily support your concept of many diversely located part providers.
Lastly, on the sales prediction. I hope you are right but predict that year over year sales will be down in q4 as they have been every quarter in 2016.. Remember, no other aviation buyer has committed to bulk sales and ge has not taken delivery on what it bought last December and will not begin volume until 2018 or after. But then there are all those unannounced sales.
Charlie, thanks for the info. Listened to the GE CC and perused the ER, but missed those 3d references.
VINDICATION is nice. Interesting, but sad, that GE manufactured 70 LEAP engines. Would have expected more given how long the LEAP has been in focus.
Going back to 2015, here and on the Yahoo Arcam board, posters continuously indicated that the LEAP was in mass production, one stating he could document 30 being produced and that EBM would not be on the LEAP, with the LEAP engine having left the station. I rebutted both points saying the LEAP was not in mass production and that we did not know if EBM would be on the LEAP with Rene saying it was still an open question.
Now we know that only 70 leaps were manufactured in 2016, to me not mass production. And to take a quote from your post; "The purchase of the manufacturer of EBM 3d means that GE has secured this element of the LEAP production process. This quote establishes that at least to GE, a better source than this poster, the LEAP train has not left the station and EBM has an impact on the leap. Bet the poster does not acknowledge the error, but he has backtracked recently saying EBM might be involved with the leap now or in the future as he predicted thousands of machines would be sold soon after saying GE would not make any bulk purchase. Yep, vindication is nice.
But i'm still disappointed as I was wrong about the speed with which 3d would take over. Thought we would be in volume production somewhere by now and yet we are not. And contrary to a poster who shouted GE has made tons of unannounced buys, GE is not even using the 10 machines it bought in 2015. Way to slow adoption for my taste which is why Arcam has and is languishing.
The quote above also suggests that ge may be utilizing EBM or thinking about utilizing it on the leap in ways that have not been announced to date. Unless Sailor is right that the speaker was confusing the nozzles which I think are lasered with ebm but would be shocked if the speaker made such a fundamental mistake. So must assume that ebm is part of the leap process as stated. Do you concur???? In any event, 3d is progressing, with the question being how fast and how much ebm will benefit.
Since you asked the question again, I'll answer again. The 23% will have no say in director selection, GE does not care what the 23 think and will operate the company in their own interests.
As far as the directors appear, they are well qualified GE operatives who will operate the company to benefit GE. If the 23% like the direction GE takes the company, and abide by GE interests, they will be happy. If they expect the company to be operated for their benefit and pps appreciation and to even consider their interests, they will be disappointed.
I think that answers the question and if one simply cannot accept that they are also rans, with a stock trading very poorly, that is unfortunate but does not make me a troll as you want to imply. I see you did not accept my invitation to offer reasoning or your thoughtful opinion and simply responded with an implied insult. Unless anyone is a troll who disagrees or offers concepts others don't like, this is not trolling. It answers the question and invites insightful contra opinion if any. Just like the filings and minority regs so often set forth here did not do as the poster implied, the minority are just along for the ride and god help anyone, especially with ADS shares that needs to quickly sell an appreciable amount. Even without 90% that some shouted was needed, GE operates the company for its benefit, solely selects the mgmt., and will trump the 23%. Does recognizing the truth make a troll as one seems to like implying??. I Don't insult or personalize, unless responding to same, unlike some, simply point out that the 23%'s feelings doesn't matter, but appreciate discussion.
Perhaps I missed something but do not understand what the clarification achieves. It was clear before that this is a housekeeping meeting, that GE will impose its directors with its 76%, notwithstanding the minority, and that the minority will have no impact on the process. Its also clear that GE will have full operational control with its 76% as it would with 51% and that GE will operate the company. Its also clear that GE wants to act quickly to control the company as its not waiting for the General meeting and may like to run these guys as incumbents at the general. Who knows but the fact that GE is not waiting to get its own people in says something. Do I need a link for these comments??
To answer the question, the 76% do not actually care what the 23% think, especially the 10% that merely want to obstruct and extort. Nor can the 23% obstruct or actually have any say in the directors as I said when posts were made that you would have impact and a say. Regs go to process and not ops. But actually, they seem well selected with ties to GE, technological knowledge and the avio selection will give the biggest customer direct impact on arcam's operations. Now how much will the company solicit outside sales, that is a big question??. But its clear the stock is trading zombie like and the 15% will only be along for the GE ride and not have a direct impact on GE ops. If any disagree, I would be interested in their viewpoint and contra argument.
Useful summary article . Thanks. It seems well documented that 3d reduces weight, wastefulness of material, number of separate parts design efficiency and uniqueness and time in that it can switch to different uses quickly and without lead time. just need the software.
Bottom line: How long well it take manufacturers to realize this and adopt volume manufacturing to 3d AND how many parts well be EBMed and not lasered. That is when 3d stocks well come into their own. However, since it seems GE is in the leadership position, and they now own laser and eBm, how much well these innovations help other metal 3d companies, who are they and how can WE play it??????
Thanks for the agenda Mr. twenton. Informative. Its just a housekeeping meeting, allowing GE to take control of the board as I opined. Was amused when some posters thought they might have a say in the new board selection and company operations with GE owning 75%+. Lets see how much input the 15% have in this meeting and selection. Don't see Elliot having much input. Amused by all that regulatory language posted by some, purporting to show how much influence they might have. All that goes to process protections, not operation protections and GE will control operations even without the 90% so many said GE would need. As useful as those reams of language purporting to show that GE would need to disclose on an ongoing basis how many shares they had acquired. Most of this ge could have accomplished with just 51% which I thought GE would also go for if they did not get the 75% minimum. They easily accepted 73%, below the minimum as I thought they would.
Bottom line, not much of a chance for Little guy questioning or input so would not attend. Perhaps the questions I raised and others can be asked at the general annual meeting which I think is in March?? But again thanks a lot for the info, looks like GE is moving quickly to obtain operational control, the 15% not withstanding. Now lets see if the stock can trade well which it isn't lately.
Yes, if you have the option and if you can ask and get answered questions. Specifically, how is EBM doing as far as being adopted for volume part manufacturing, any additional parts on the horizon?. In addition, how does GE plan to operate arcam, emphasize saleability and profit or satisfying GE needs? New technology releases on the horizon?? Will EBM be on the LEAP, now or in the future as well as other engines and additional parts besides the blades. Is ge increasing its ownership stake, working toward 90% or is a split or secondary contemplated to improve the trading float?. Answers to those questions and similar will go a long way towards indicating if Arcam will be a good investment vehicle for the near and long term future.
What is the announced agenda for the meeting????? IF just housekeeping to reflect new ownership and structure, nothing will be gained. But useful info would be worth its weight in gold or should I say titanium???
Sailor, answer is easy. Accuracy, reasonableness, my views on whats happening and why I think things are happening and why other views might be right or wrong IMHO. Promote discussion. Usually give reasoning for my views so that others can agree or not, rather than just say pps should be 70/90 or orders already made.. Offer solid reasoning. To the contrary:
What is you point is saying GE has made many unannounced orders, offer price should be 70/90, GE would offer a premium to get 90%, the filings (flagings) would tell us how many shares GE had at any specific time, asking when ER day is, suggesting big things would happen soon to move the pps and that the stock is slowly moving up, etc. In addition to offering my views to promote discussion and as a catharsis, I comment on what I agree with and disagree with and why as others do with my posts. THat is what discussion is about. By posting one invites comment on the validity or ludicrousness of content. That is the point.
Hey Sailor, thought you said GE had already ordered a lot of printers but simply had not announced them. Now you accept that the buys have not been made, not the least reason being that they aren't using what they bought. At least you now know the ER date. Don't have to guess. You may think the stock is trading well, I think it qualifies as zombie like, especially the ADS but also the main stock. today less than 800 shares. Would have problems selling 4000 shares had I kept. Stock has not been going up as some have shouted. But Keep counting the 70 to 90 pps you thought GE would pay.
So far, everything is as predicted, although was surprised at the quietness of the EU and competitors. GE did accept less than its minimum, (73 vs 75%), did not raise its pps to get its minimum during the deal, the filings did not indicate how many shares GE had, and ge did not give any premium to Elliot or ludicrous holders who thought they might get 70 to 90 pps. Also no immediate machine buys and looks like laser is going to be the majority user. Now lets see if GE uses the company for profit or its own use. But the speeches suggesting that they would be selling thousands of machines to others suggests arcam will be operated for profit. Now lets see how the stock trades, but so far its zombie like. Anyone dispute that??. All as predicted, at least by me.
Sailor, was wondering about that issue as well. Do you mean that Swedish law will mandate that arcam's results, 76% owned by GE, needs to be reported separately , outlining specific revenue, machine sales, etc rather than being incorporated in the results of GE aviation Sweden which owns the 76%. In the US, I think that a company owned 76% is incorporated in the results of the majority company. But if Arcam continues to have its own CCs, its possible that we will get the same info as we do now, which is not much but at least we know revenue and how many orders and deliveries made. It will be interesting to see what Rene says on the CC. THat might set the future tone.
What I would like is for Arcam to remain as independent as possible with GE operating it as a profit center, pushing sales to competitors and for those competitors and GE to announce other EBM uses which will require a lot more machines. To date, sadly, haven't seen that. Lastly we need the stock to trade sufficiently well to allow buying, selling and profit making, with the ability to buy/sell a decent amount without affecting the pps.
Why Guess Sailor, ER date is already announced, you must have read that. 4q is usually Arcam's best but it had 3 bad sales quarters in a row. We shall see. But given the lack of announcements, there have been no bulk orders or do you still believe that GE has made a lot of unannounced buys????? Do you really think q/q, orders have increased?. Remember last 4q was a good one. Additionally, most OEM companies have announced poor 4q sales. So do you really think, q/q, orders have significantly "picked up."??? One last comment. Do you expect that they will give any notice of orders. Sailor, they haven't in the past. Per their policy they only announce orders of 2 or more but they will announce those. Meanwhile, Check the web site or Yahoo and you will find the announcement date.
Thanks AEF, but why not discuss those valuable insights and conclusions. Not method of delivery. I call them as I see them. I discuss my ideas about the company as well as rebut what I consider flawed posts. How can one rebut issues without directly explaining why. How can one not cast aspirations on some of the ludicrous posts made here. Like the one who said I was wrong when I said we did not know how many shares GE had. His evidence. The filings would tell us. Posted pages and pages of Reg noise on that topic. They never showed the numbers timely and he quotes not from them but from the GE statements which I said would govern, not the filings. How about the ones who said GE would pay to get 100% or 90% and should pay 70 to 90 pps. How about the shout that GE had many unannounced orders when it has not taken delivery or used what it has already bought. How about the speculation that GE should give a lot of attention to the minority 15%. Except for process, GE does not owe anything to the minority. Arguably, anything that helps the 76%, helps the minority. All those posted regs only protect the minority in process issues, not necessarily in operational areas.
Bottom line, lets discuss the issues, positive and negative that are raised. Do you really think that in a through discussion one should not point out some of those outrageous opinions and if I am wrong feel free to show me why, not attack the tone of the rebuttal. But I will try to be more diplomatic if the points made are at least supported with reasoning and not just bald statements. I always explain why I opine as I do.
Hey Charlie, i'm not surprised, I predicted it. Just like I predicted that the filings or flagings as you prefer, would not tell us how many shares GE had during the tender. I notice that the numbers you quote are from GE PR releases and not from the filings. And your numbers are incorrect Its actually 76% ge and 10% Elliot that are out of the trading float. If you remember, I was one of the 1st or the 1st that voiced concern that arcam would trade zombie like post deal. It has. My surprise is that papa arcam is stuck somewhat higher than the deal, but baby arcam is essentially the same or a little higher. Thought they would be lower.
I am not lamenting. But, to consider whether I should have held, or should buy back, I am concerned with the low volume, low float and lack of pps movement. To expect a lot of news from the "CEO" is ludicrous since he did not provide it earlier and how can he as simply an employee of GE which owns 76% of the company and will direct it. My only lament is that it does not look like one can effectively participate in the company because of its poor trading. To make any meaningful move with the stock, at least 500 to 1000 shares, and that is a minimum, the stock would have to trade better than it is. For those who say GE has an obligation to the less than 15% remaining holders, diffused between many individuals, I say they won't have any influence. THe company will be operated and controlled by GE and the minority are just along for the ride For those who shout that GE has bought many unannounced machines from the company, I say I've got swamp land to sell you. GE has not used the 10 it bought last December, much less need many more machines now.
Charlie, despite all those generic 3d articles, arcam will not have a bright future unless and until many more companies decide to use EBM for volume part production. Not just talk, test or experiment about EBM, but commit to volume mfg with it. That will be the question and the jury is out.
I am and have been bullish, but I must confess that I am shocked volume production has not stated yet and many more uses for volume EBM production have not been announced. I do not consider 2 blades for 26 engines in 2018 to be volume. Do you??? Do not think Avio will need more than its 20 machines to produce that volume though 2018. Do you??? Bottom line, there are not a lot of unannounced buys and except for process GE owes no duty to the less than 15% diffusely owed minority..
P.S. Charlie's 2nd part update confirms the lack of insight of some. Per his Avio slide, it confirmed that none of the December order have been used, only the origninal 10. Even more significantly in 2016 only 4 engines produced, in 2017 only 12 engines will be used and in 2018 only 26 engines will be manufactured and only 2 blades per engine. These numbers are from memory so I may be one/two off but the point is obvious, this is not volume manufacturing. So even through 2018, mass ebm production is not contemplated assuming Charlie's info is accurate Given these numbers, and the fact that 10 printers have already been ordered, where are the mass orders needed like some posters have shouted The machines GE has already bought look to be sufficient though 2018, so unless new parts become EBMed, where are all these machines needed. If anyone draws other conclusions from Charlie's info please advise but the bulk orders one poster says has already happened, but not been announced, is fantasy. Don't get me wrong, I'm bullish on EBM and laser 3d but its obvious the volume metal mfg is taking longer than I anticipated. Now can I trade it. That jury is still out but not with a volume under 300 shares. Unless I can sell at least 500, hopefully a lot more, without moving the pps, it is not worth the trade
Wasn't that obvious. Shocked that anyone asked the question. GE now runs Arcam with less than 90% as I predicted and the Arcam officers and board are figureheads except maybe for day to day routine ops. That is not necessarily bad. Does anyone doubt that ge, with less than 90% which some said would be necessary and GE would pay 70 and 90 pps to get, is firmly in charge. Does anyone think the stock, especially the ADS is trading well???
Real issues are not all those articles on generic 3d printing and bogus issues. The key issue is when will volume EBM printing begin for GE and will any other volume mfg use EBM for part manufacturing. That will be the key to printer sales and whether Arcam will become a profit OEM or just a GE supplier. Time will tell. But those posters who shout that GE has ordered huge amounts, but not disclosed, now or in the near future amuse me when GE has not taken delivery on its 1st buy.
Sorry you are so easily confused and wrong too boot. Haven't responded to my own posts, just commenting on the veracity of other posts such as arcam's trading, lack of unannounced bulk orders and pps to 70/90 short term. Willing to provide clarification if needed/wanted.
Yep, realty check. The GE present and nice profit was pleasant but lets be real. The pretty graph you posted clearly shows how poorly the arcam pps was performing before the GE deal. Most of the appreciation was directly from GE and not arcam perfomance. The only 3d company performing well in 2016 pps wise on its own was DDD as noted by Motley fool in their article and confirmed in their graph.
Now you know that I've been bullish on Arcam for a long time, taking issue with the posters who saw bogeymen behind every corner. But the ones who see bulls and great arcam performance and pps, 70 and 90, around every corner are equally suspect and need challenge.
You haven't answered my question, but its obvious that arcam is not trading well and with only a 15% or less trading float its questionable whether it well. How weak will the pps go without buys/sells or news which is unlikely as the company was not giving news before. Additionally, most 3d companies report bad 4q sales and how will another bad quarter affect the pps. Who will support the pps if GE and Elliot are not buying/selling and institutions will not be able to given the low float. How will you get those 70s and 90s??? Just trade amongst ourselves??? HOw will that affect the pps?? We shall see. But the uptick was due to the deal and its weakening now and with such poor volume it would be hard to sell a large position.
You have not addressed any of the points I made. 1. GE has not taken full delivery on the machines bought, much less need more now.
2. No EBM parts are in mass production as yet which negates the need for the huge orders some have stated have already been made but not announced. 3. You should inform the posters that bulk buys must be announced and the lack of same suggests they haven't happened unlike one who said they probably have been made but not announced. 4. If you think GE is buying stock, like one stated, why don't the filings document it as you said they would. 5. Given the low float and lack of sellers and buyers and volume, why would the pps appreciate hugely even if huge bulk orders come forth.
Bottom line, I was and am bullish on arcam and the entire 3d sector. But the volume manufacturing and bulk orders have taken longer than I expected and hoped and its still unclear how many parts will be EBMed vs laser. Even more significantly, its unclear how the stock well trade and whether one can profit from it.
To negate one of you conclusions, if my hopes on ebm are confirmed and the stock trades so that I can expect a profit and recognize It, I will be back in. THe article you posted suggesting that GE would sell to competitors to the tune of 10000 machines gives me hope but we shall see how it plays out.
Finally a post with insight. Agree with most. But not announcing need not be nefarious, especially since Arcam is not noted for announcing anything, sales, guidance or vision, in the past. Moreover, it would be legitmate for the company to emphasize the needs of its biggest stockholder rather than a tiny minority holding 15%. Elliot doesn't count IMHO since they are not investing in the company, just attempting to extort a premium. So I have the same concerns you do about the emphasis. My one point of hope is the speech Charlie posted where a GE officer stated that he expected to sell 10000 printers eventually to competitors. That suggests that GE will operate arcam as a profit center and not as a GE provider. We shall see. But IMHO the stock has not been trading well and if it doesn't will the company be a good stock to invest in?. Time will tell.
NOPE. Oh come on. Realty check. As I've said, GE hasn't taken delivery on what they committed to, much less need more. No ebm parts in volume production yet, including the blades. May not even be certified yet. Arcam is committed to announcing bulk buys. Lack of same suggests none. If any part of your speculation had even a scintilla of realty, GE would have taken delivery on some of the machines bought last Dec. LOL. But keep up the conclusions and speculation.
I thought you and Charlie posted that the filings would show GE picking up shares. Lack of same suggests GE isn't, Right????
Sailor, the only time the company has given an idea of sales is with bulk orders. They haven't announced single sales for over a year.
Great year???? Actually its been a bad year with every quarter so far a major disappointment. The only good news is from GE buying the company, but not for the high premium you thought was deserved. LOL
Nice generic article as usual and I agree with your ultimate speculation, but not timing. Yes, 3d will become more of a force in manufacturing and part production and design, but to what extent and when. Its already been delayed substantially with only one GE 3d part in mass production, the fuel nozzle. Mucho experimentation and testing, but so far just the one, and not the blades, are in mass production, not even close, so no EBM parts in volume production yet. Which is why GE has not taken delivery on what its committed to much less wanted more.
You miss two key questions in your post. 1. How many of those parts will be EBM and 2. When and to what extent will 3d take over the process and how much will be laser vs ebm. Those are the important questions to arcam and this board.
Do you think arcam has been trading well, either papa or baby, so far????? I don't. PPS went up shortly, now weakening, but volume so low couldn't sell any appreciable amount without killing the pps
Tomhas, As far as my response to Sailor's post see my last post. As far as guidance and vision, why do you think Rene will suddenly give such. My complaint for many a moon has been the lack of info, guidance, vision and insight that the company provides. Now that Rene is not in charge totally, why would that change. I'm not even sure if any info will be provided or it will all default to GE and its future plans. We shall see but Ill be shocked if suddenly we get guidance and vision.
I'll shed the desired light and insight. If you read with comprehension on this page you would know the answer. Ge has not placed any new orders and per the last cc has not taken any deliveries on last december's order either. And you have posted all those anticipated big immediate orders. LOL Unless it happens next week, there will be no orders of 2 or more printers from any other buyer either. Now we will see how many single orders they got. 4th quarter is usually their best. If they do not get substantial orders this quarter, after 2 bad prior quarters, expect the stock to weaken with no buyers. Have fun with your posted 70 and 90 pps and the other predictions/conclusions offered. Do you still think the stock trades well???? Pre announcements from SLM and others do not bode well as most have indicated weak sales.
Ahujavi, Nope, not unless Ge gets 90%. You will not be forced to do anything unless this magical level is reached.
What will happen depends on you. You can sell tomorrow and get the market price. You can hold and see if the stock appreciates further and simply watch like you have done everyday so far. With only 175 shares, you can probably sell now without affecting the pps too much and make a nice profit or hold if you think it will go up further. ITs up to you. But if the stock becomes static, and stops going up, you will be stuck with a potentially lower price as well. Just check out what's happened to the Axis stock in a similar situation.
Cooler you meaning is unclear. Please don't reply to me if you can't make a valid point. So arcam, both papa and baby are down today. That makes my point about how badly the stock is trading. Microscopic volume and unexplained moves. Up substantially yesterday, down today. You post what we know, but get the percentage wrong, but what does that mean other than confirming my bad trade observation. Thanks for proving me right, but you did so in such a poor unexplained way. What is the meaning.
Now to my actual post, I was answering Traders question as to why the stock was up yesterday, the catalyst. Why did you reply by giving today's quote and simply quote what I said??. Meaningless. I stand by my post. It was up because Sailor did what he said and bought 27%. Because of the low float, as I stated, the pps will go up whenever any one buys from the limited float. That is why the stock is trading badly IMHO. But, since the bad trading has resulted in the pps going up, and I could have gotten more money than I did on my remaining 4000 shares, I did make a mistake selling, assuming I could sell that 4000 without tanking the pps. The sign of bad trading is being up one day, down almost the same the next, on low volume and no news, moved by buyer's like Sailor acting on the low float and then weaken when no buyer exists.
Trader, answer simple, Sailor and his followers. He posted that he increased his holdings 27%. Either he had hardly no shares or he moved the stock significantly. Those are the buyers. Who are the sellers, doubt if its GE or Elliot so must be coming from the remaining 15%. Low float makes a 27% increase move the pps.
But we both must do mea culpa. Looks like we made a mistake by selling as the pps is now up significantly. Stock is trading badly with low volume and inexplicable moves but positive moves none the less. We both lost money. Now the question is could we have sold. I had 4000 remaining shares Could I sell, with this low volume, without killing the pps. That I don't know nor do I know how much further it will go up. BUt if Sailor and his ilk keep buying 27% of their holdings, unless what they have is microscopic, the pps will keep going up. Now do I want to slowly slowly slowly buy back in????????? Then I will be moving the pps up, a self fulfilling prophecy,
Agee, based on that interview that Charlie posted, which as I said earlier was quite interesting, at least for now looks like GE will use Arcam as a profit center which is good for stockholders. Now will the 15% remaining trade well or will they do a secondary/split to increase the float.
Sailor, Not unhappy, call them as I see them. Loved my nice profit and looking to see if I an make more. I pointed out the inaccurate nay sayers when they were obviously wrong and call the bullish inaccuracies as well.
Arcam is not trading nicely. Just look at the poor volume and pps movement, or lack thereof, since the deal finished. No one can call that trading nicely.
Its clear that Elliot is not a white knight representing competitors to GE from owning Arcam. Its history clearly shows that as all know.
Its clear that GE does not need 100% to operate Arcam and that is obvious. Likewise, its clear that GE will not buy out people at a high premium. That's been obvious throughout the deal and I was amused at all those posters suggesting that they would get 70 and 90 pps. Just as amusing wee those who posted repetitively that the filings showed how much stock GE had at any time.
its clear that bulk buys are a ways away.
I'm waiting to see how the stock trades and how GE will operate it, with its 75% control.
If you cannot take a valid position in the stock without totally shaping the pps or sell appropriately, hhat is not good trading.
Why do you think just because I can see the situation for what it is, and don't make idiotic predictions and statements, and point such out, that i'm unhapppy with the situation. I'm watching to see if buying back would be valid
Sailor to answer your question, NO, Elliot isn't acting for others. IF you check their history, in multiple transactions, and not just to thwart GE, Elliot has established a MO
For you information, in many situations, and not just to counter GE, Elliot buys just enough to thwart ownership and be obstructionist, uses minority rights and obstruction and distraction to try to extort a premium and sometimes is successful and sometimes not. They did it with Axis, with another Swedish company and with junk bonds. Wait till a merger/refinance is announced, buy enough to thwart and then extort a better deal. That's their history. It is not to be a white knight and help competitors prevent GE from owning Arcam. Just like GE will not pay you the premium you think you deserve and does not need the 100% you keep harping on.
To answer you question Sailor, no one thinks arcam is trading nicely or that Elliot is a white knight working on behalf of companies and institutions to prevent GE full ownership. Elliot is doing what Elliot does. Works with weak players, will not work with GE or Cannon.
IMHO, there was no competing noise or bids, which did surprise me, because EBM is a small player. Lots of research and experimentation going on, but so far only GE has elected to use EBM in volume production and that so far only for one part, actually a partial part, a few blades in the turbine, not all. Per one poster, even that part is not certified yet so volume production cannot start.
Insurance policy???? Nope. GE can do everything it wants operationally with 75% of the company as well as 90% or 100% and it has that operational control now at 33ish pps and not the 70 or 90 some of you think justified.
As Elliot goes, we all GO???????? Come on, you want to put the die hards in the same boat as Elliot?.
Elliot will not get bought out for at least 6 months and bet never.
Sailor, really think Arcam is trading nicely????
Papa Arcam now trading many days less than 4000 shares and the pps usually moves with what the 1st trade does, buys goes up, sells go down. But good luck buying/selling= any appreciable amount of shares, i.e. over a couple hundred or less without grossly moving the pps. Even worse with baby arcam, the ads barely moves the volume needle and also just moves with the open/close trade and small buys/sells grossly affects the pps. Do you really think either is trading nicely??. I don't. Would be hard to sell if I had waited with my residual 4000 shares. To me, a stock is not trading well if you can't buy/sell a normal amount when you want. I am surprised that the pps has held up, and moves up but the volume is just so weak as is the pps move.
Trader, what makes you think Elliot is not selling?. If not Elliot, who do you think is selling. GE??? I think not. THe 15% Diehards, would be surprised unless there are a few institutions and non diehard speculators within that 15% who were simply too lazy or wanted to speculate and now are selling. BUt can't be many of those.
Secondly, Sailor what makes you think 1q will be much better. The company has had 2 bad quarters in a row and the universal thinking is q4 will be bad as well. Which means independent companies do not seem to be ordering a lot. Now the 4q is usually the best by far so we may be surprised but so far no guidance that will happen.
I do think Arcam will deliver, but its looking like a longer time fame than I thought. Till GE is ready to start volume orders, or another company selects EBM for mass production, there will be no catalyst and GE has no reason to tweek the pps. It isn't selling and loves to see Elliot suffer. It does not care about the die hards who refused their tender. GE won't be ordering more bulk till its ebm parts get certified, it plans on including them in the mass production of engines and they take delivery of the ones already ordered which won't start till 2o17. So where or where is the q1 catalyst????