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I guess the consolation is that the PPS can't go negative. The continuing fall is a result of people still willing to sell at these levels and still few buyers. When will people stop selling and wake up to the value in this company?
$500k of income with repeat of the US Army endorsement and the market reacts with $25m off the market capitalisation.
It's a crazy world at the moment but it will turn.
While I am not a fan of your consistently bearish stance, I must say that I can see the logic in this.
Someone has legged over AMRN, probably as you say by selling short while buying an out-of-the-money call. They will (if they haven't already) close their short position, take their profits and ride off into the sunset leaving the calls to expire or hedge them out.
Having stripped value out of the weak share price they leave the rest of us (and the PPS) to climb slowly back up again. Which the PPS will as the prospects for V continue to improve.
(Hopefully I am not a muggins in that I have bought yet more at these low levels.)
We sure seem to be on our way to Antarctica. Anyone have any idea why we are doing so much worse than the general sector downturn?
6% down so far today. And all because AMRN decided to give FDA more time.
While I am a long term fan & holder of AMRN this punishment again & again & again is starting to get really boring!!
Sure hope that one day we get our reward.
Fully appreciate that it's an example. Just interested to see if there are views on how the underlying figures have moved.
Seems to me that the previous PPS was just over-optimistic?
Aren't we still there on all these points except no 7?
1. Hype on potential BO - the activity on this board would indicate that the hype is still around
2. Expectations as to Anchor market - this will come when R-IT hopefully comes in successful
3. R-IT bring "substantially" enrolled - more so now
4. JELIS - surely looking better now?
5. Marine approved - benefit of extra marketing opportunity following 1A decision
6. V sold by 250 reps - Kowa helps to compensate for the lay-offs and scripts continue to power forward
7. Analysts & WS on board - will come back as we approach a BO
So none of the above explains why the math in HDGabor's post #64574 give only $6
If the same maths applies then the pre-ADCOM PPS was never sustainable vs. buy-out?
Sales projections are not reduced nor costs increased by intervening events so DCF should not be materially worse.
Yet the market supported a PPS in the $15-$5 range (sadly in that direction).
So was the market wrong ie over-optimistic or what has changed in the business economics (other than delays)?
PPS and volume today certainly don't show the market as expecting anything good tomorrow. The change in direction from late morning (and increase in volume) is surely the clearest indication that the FDA has been secret squirrel about what is to come (as usual).
But it's not so bad as to presage a disaster. So we can expect "continuing discussions" and a new date.
Sold some of my INO shares this morning for the first time for a while.
Fortunately still holding a lot.
I think I should sell more often!!
.....stands for
We are Totally F'd???
(At least it seems so for now. But INO will come back when the tide turns & when it does the shorts will rush for the shore.)
Just such a pity that we see such price weakness when there is only good news out there (DARPA et al).
As we now seem to be heading back to 2013 PPS maybe the R/S could be undone as well!!
Sorry. Does this really mean what you quote ie that we are stuck in a sort of twilight zone; submitted but not received? And while in this limbo-land nothing will happen, nothing further can be submitted & no progress undertaken by FDA on the "submitted but not received" application?
This is surely lunacy.
$27.5m upfront on its own is $0.38 per share based on 72mil o/s.
And that's before the share of revenues.
We seem to be oversold again.
Well today (so far) shows the peril in all those who sold short last week into earnings report. A lot of covering going on.
Surely this is criminal contempt? Which requires that a federal prosecutor takes action against the FDA. Govt vs govt
The order was a positive order to recognise NCE so the FDA can have no alternative but to do as Judge Moss said. Not including V in the OB must be evidence of non-compliance. How can not including V be consistent with recognising NCE?
This is getting even more messy.
Surely FDA are required by the Court to comply with the order pending the outcome of their appeal (if in fact they appeal)?
The order was that the FDA recognise NCE. If they don't do so aren't they in contempt of Court?
Not bashing at all. Am long & have been so all the way down & back up again.
Am only asking if someone has (and can share) an idea on the maths (cost:benefit). I presume that management has!
Thanks JL. But presumably while this would certainly help marketing, if it didn't make substantial inroads within (say) the next 12 months R-It would be there anyway. I wonder how much in $$$ it will cost Amarin were they to lose compared to how much it would benefit when they win.
Can someone explain what winning the 1st Amendment case will actually mean for Amarin? Setting aside the satisfaction from giving the FDA a 2nd bloody nose, it will enable information to be shared with doctors. While that will help sales it isn't going to transform them. Only Reduce-It will do that.
I can see what FDA lose in losing this case but I can't see that Amarin win (or lose) very much apart from legal costs.
Or am I missing something?
I can't find a definition for what a "Regulatory Letter" might be in the FDA Compliance Manual.
The only references that I can see to "regulatory" matters relate to matters that are considered (by the FDA) to be in violation of the law.
So why would FDA be responding to this Court case to narrow the issues by expanding upon their CRL with a letter addressing violation of a law?
Yet again Dr Kim's focus on having cash-in-bank acts as a highly effective fire suppressant.
Constant dilution (while a common facet of emerging bio-tech) is a real pain in the PPS.
Why not feed the longs and not always the shorts. That way INO can get the same cash for less dilution.
While I clearly agree that cash is king, INO didn't need it at this stage. Depressing the PPS in order to boost cash reserves was surely unnecessary.
Will the provider of these funds (Capital Ventures/Heights Cap Mgt/Susquehanna) be long-term holders or opportunists selling once the PPS has recovered to $10? I hope the latter. If so then surely the subscription agreement could have locked in a holding period in return for what was at that time a 20% discount.
All that this type of exercise achieves is to make long-term investors have doubts as to why we backed Dr Kim.
Which I agree is a pity as he is doing great things. It's just sad that INO becomes a trader's playground.
I just don't see why closing the share issue and receiving $82.7m in net cash is news that sends the share price down. Announcing the proposal, maybe but completing the fund raise: surely not?!
Should be and would be if market confidence had been established with a strong institutional investor base. Longer term the prospects for INO remain strong (imho) and $20 should be easy. But for now this sort of move just encourages the traders.
They should have consolidated the business model rather than harvesting a short-term upturn in the PPS.
I am long INO and have been for several years. I see this sort of abuse of investors and ask myself why don't I just flip it like the rest next time it sticks it's head above the price parapet.
That mindset & the price volatility that goes with it discourages institutional investment.
And when we break support at $8 we wander around in the 6's & 7's back where we were in February?
With the cost to investors of this fundraising approaching double the new funds raised this (like his decision on the R/S) is a further sign that Dr Kim should focus on the science and PR and leave running the business to a professional.
I guess the only consolation in today's sorry story is that Dr Kim is underwater too on his purchase at $9 last August. Regardless of one's confidence in the business and Dr Kim's technical capabilities (which I still have) this shows (yet again) that his judgement as regards investors is just not there. A wise move would not have seen the PPS drop so far to match the discount being offered for new money.
Seen that now. Given the market cap of $600m at $10 per share to drop the PPS to $8 a share (in the market refracting the offer price) ie drop $120m off the market cap in order to raise $76m in new money looks daft to me. Have been (and remain) long INO but don't understand why they are doing this damage.
Why is the PM price drop so large? Has the issue price or amount been specified/leaked?
It's a strange filing that talks about an underwritten offer yet doesn't give details of either.
I guess one consolation is that a movement in the PPS is a bigger percentage on the way up than it is on the way down! Nonetheless the price & volume activity of yesterday and today is weird.
Unreal volume (49.6m) fuelled an unsustainable rise. The trend is great. It's just a pity that the close was down which was surely caused by the early PPS spike feeding the shorts an opportunity. Some will have closed out later and hopefully resuming a strong & steady rise will encourage the others to follow.
High today 3.33
Low 2.81
Now 2.86 down 0.04
As long as it closes at start or up that's fine.
Usual reason for AMRN to drop like that is that FDA dumped on us: again!
But today it looks like it was over-bought. A slide back as a result of profit-taking & shorts and then strongly stepping forward again. Hopefully!
How can it be that 14.8m shares have been traded so far today out of 52.3m shares in issue without the price being totally affected by day trading?!
No buying interest at all: look at the volume. Now if there was any news that would increase the volume & good news (like there is a future after Roche?) would make the PPS bounce back. But with Dr Kim having recently converted to a Trappist monk we can only wait.
His past forecast on 3 Sept 13 was a bit suspect when (just before our beloved ADCOM) he opened his rating of AMRN as "BUY" with a PT of $15!!
Since then he has been "HOLD" with lower targets. Until now.
Agree that FDA arguments are well presented. But Amarin's are way better.
I have sympathy for what the FDA say but they have no right to re-invent what Congress sets out, and they will be told this at the hearing.
It's more likely no news and so no buying support. Makes an easy target and when the slide starts it picks up momentum.
Now the PPS needs to find a new level of support in uncharted ground and build up from there. When Dr Kim gets back from vacation I am sure he will share good news with us all!
Today is not a nice day for longs. On top of a run of the same which has seen us drop by over 50% in the last 12 months.
Breaking the support at 7 is not clever. Let's see how this ends today.
Is this why we are dropping like an express elevator?
http://tinyurl.com/qevfjnm
If this is our "friend" Adam F having a kick at INO yet again then we really need Dr Kim to press the "up" button.