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It was always payable by August. The original release, saying it was October, was a typo.
Thanks. I've been kinda out of the loop. Has APDN indicated how they will be treating the $1m payment and the subsequent $4M payments. I.e., current income or amortization. TIA
Foose: What call is that?
Thanks.
Yeah. I've been hiding under the desk, waiting for the final thud. Now there is something to talk about.
Definitive agreement still not signed but chances are very good, given the central role APDN's taggant and CertainT platform plays in Etch Biotrace solution.
The $5M gives us 6 months to make some of those 12 near-term revenue opportunities come to fruition.
I dare say: lookin pretty good.
Good timing. I added a bunch Friday as well.
Hayward's optimism on the CC, to me, portends their belief that a reverse-split will not be needed.
Anyone know if IDCC has a current poison-pill in place? TIA
Although there is not much "new" news in this release, it is encouraging that it has been initiated by L-D. I don't think they would be hyping Sig. T-marked cotton unless they planned on making sizable inroads into the significant Australian cotton market.
Foose.... Should be more like $.06 per pound (similar to what we get for Pima). I.e., about $1.8M. IMO.
You're way off in your assumptions and your conclusions:
First, the 350M pounds of cotton is a cumulative number; consisting of the 200M that has been marked from inception, the 30-40 million pounds that were marked last ginning season on spec by APDN and the 120M or so that they are anticipating this coming season. Hence, it's really just the 120M pounds that will produce about $4.5M in revenues.
Since APDN gets about $.04 per pound to mark Pima and slightly less (say, .$035) for Homegrown, one can see that this blend will produce around $4.5M in revenue.
Not enough is known about fertilizer yet to make an intelligent guess as to per/TON amounts for marking. However, we do know that marking fertilizer will bring in far less than cotton on a per/POUND basis.
RodeKroet... I agree. When ADNAS first set out to try to penetrate the Pharma vertical, they hired Miglani, a Pharma veteran, because of his ties to the major Pharma companies. This approach of attempting to sell directly to the companies has been replaced (as it has been in every other vertical) by a paradigm that includes contracting with larger companies, already established within the industry and in the actual supply chain, that have hundreds of sales people selling our technology.
If he has left, in essence, his job is done.
I think you meant 2 Billion pounds. Pima market is 250-300 Million pounds.
I'm thinking Australia also. Big opportunity: 2 bllion pounds of cotton produced there annually. Australian cotton is revered in China and parts of Europe. In any case, it appears that we are getting closer and closer to a tipping point in the cotton vertical.
Everyone should know by now: Big block pre-market with subsequent fall in price is SOP for the manipulators. They shorted the stock to the buyer and are now buying it back lower. It's like clockwork.
Bigtoker. Look at it this way:
First, Overstock (the corporation) now consists of:
1) The e-commerce business, i.e. online retailing and,
2) Medici, which owns 81% of tZero, 38%of Bitt and minor positions in 5-6 other blockchain-related companies.
Byrne has indicated that the e-commerce business will be sold to a "brick and mortar". Mostly likely, the cash, or stock in the acquiring company, will be distributed to existing Overstock shareholders (stock would be preferable, as it would not force a taxable event on shareholders). I estimate the value of this transaction to be in the $50+ range. What then remains of Overstock, the corporation, is a pure blockchain company, consisting of 2), above.
The value of the surviving blockchain company is anyone's guess. However, Byrne has indicated that the $250M ICO will reduce Overstock's ownership from 81% to about 50%. So, this implies that tZero is being valued at around $800M (or, around $30 per Overstock share). What the value of the remaining Medici investments is is to be determined by the market. With all the hoopla about blockchain now happening, and the fact that Medici has a few year head-start on competitors, the value of the surviving company could be substantially more.
The above is AIMO. Hope this helps.
Although fertilizer prices vary widely and are volatile, $400-500 per ton is a pretty good number. A cost of .5-1.0% to mark is not unreasonable. So, I'd say $2.00 to $5.00 is more likely than $1.00 per ton. JMO.
Of the 5.8M tons used in Turkey, 1.5M are of the ammonium nitrate variety (used in bombs), IMO, this is the first that will be marked. Many other African and other countries will follow suit. Imagine the benefit to being able to forensically determine where the fertilizer came from, after an explosion.
https://cryptovest.com/news/sap-accenture-hitachi-hive--overstock-to-be-listed-in-reality-shares-blockchain-index/
(don't know if this has been posted)
Mike. Very optimistic view. I do hope you are right. December quarter really is all about cotton and, to me, it is disturbing that no new orders have been announced to date. BTW, the $3.5M "base" revenues that Jim talked about are subject to cotton marking receipts. Also, at current burn rate, I believe $4M in revs. gets us to breakeven. GLTA.
Mcsharkey.. Where do you think the revenues that produce this profit will come from?
"Who's going to make sure those gold wafers are real"???
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-10-30/could-be-huge-gold-bar-certified-royal-canadian-mint-exposed-fake
"Volume precedes price". eom.
I have been reminded that there is a component (undisclosed) of the Himatzinka agreement that calls for yearly minimums. So, yes you are correct.
Cotton is absolutely non-recurring and is NOT included in the $1.5M base quarterly revenues. IMO, by the time we get past the ginning season (i.e., Q4 and 2018Q1), the base quarterly revenues will be higher, maybe considerably.
Unless there is unexpected, positive news this afternoon, the stock will trade down for this reason: Our only "analyst" (Maxim) is at $2.61M in revenues. By my count the revs. will be a minimum of $1.9M (marking of 27.5M pounds of cotton=$1.m plus a repeat of our "base" revenues in Q2 and Q3 =$900K). I can see getting to, maybe, $2.2M with growth in "base". But we will "miss" the expected $2.61M and stock will go down. Maxim is not a friend of APDN.
Precisely. Thank you. For those who might view the end of the LD as somehow negative for APDN, think again. The vast majority (if not all) of the marked-cotton sales to date have been to Himatzinka anyway. Now we are dealing direct, with no revenue sharing and getting paid in 60 days. Win-win.
In addition to exclusivity ending with the expiration of the contract with LD, the payment terms of 12-18 months also went away. In the new paradigm, APDN sells directly to manufacturers with payment terms of 60 days. I suppose if LD wanted to buy marked cotton and then turn around and sell to a manufacturer, they would have to adhere to the new standard of payment, 60 days. So,as I mentioned in a previous post, LD is effectively no longer a customer. They are a transporter---sort of like a Fedex.
There is no need to update what is happening with Dreyfus. APDN's agreement ended at the end of May. Going forward, all agreements are directly with the manufacturers. The only role for Dreyfud now is the transporting of marked cotton.
While APDN could get cotton marking orders anywhere from July to February, the most likely time period is from July through September, with the emphasis on August/September. This has been my understanding all along and I confirmed it with IR yesterday. IR is not sure how this got misinterpreted to July, but it is incorrect.
houtheman...Agree 100%.eom.
Mr. B.....A favorable new deal with Himatzinka and a sizable uptick in marked cotton orders. I am confident both will happen. IMO.
A voice of reason amongst the chicken-littles.
Having been an investor in small companies for 50+ years and in the investment industry for 20 years+, I am well aware of the timing of when secondaries or PIPES happen. If you believe they will dilute at this level in the short term you should pack it in.
With 12 months cash available, there will NOT be dilution anytime soon, particularly at this price level.
I disagree. (the agreement actually expires on May 25). At the least, we will get accelerated payments of receivables. I think there's a good chance exclusivity will be dropped. We may also get a bump UP in pricing. AIMO.
A/R, the remainder of the deferred revenue and their anticipation of increased cotton marking, IMO.
Mike...I don't know the answer to your question, but I'm sure it's more than $.04 per bale. Supima has approximately 40% of the total Pima market of about 300M pounds. A US bale of cotton weighs about 500 pounds. So, Supima produces about 240,000 bales. I don't know for sure, but I believe APDN receives about $200-250K per year for verifying Supima cotton. So, APDN gets about $1.00 per bale.
The above analysis is sort of meaningless. What is more meaningful is this: Last season APDN marked about 100M pounds of Pima. The two main customers were Kirkland and BBBY. Each chose to use marked Pima in only 2 or 3 SKUs. Between APDN-marked Pima and Supima about 220M pounds of the 300M Pima market are accounted for. This means that only about 80M pounds of Pima are available. What happens when more and more retailers follow suit and start using SigT cotton? What happens when they all start marking more and more SKUs? What happens if APDN decides to only take on customers who want the CertainT platform ( i.e., tag, track, trace ) and not offer fiber-typing capabilities as a separate service?
IMO, it could get interesting.
No. They are NOT marking. Supima is a consortium of farmers that supply approximately 40 % of American-grown Pima cotton. The basis of their guarantee of 100% Pima cotton is this: when they initially deliver their cotton into the supply chain, they KNOW that it is 100%. As this cotton progresses through the various nodes of the supply chain, APDN fiber-tests the cotton in order to verify the authenticity of the cotton. APDN gets paid for this testing.
Recently, APDN announced the CertainT platform. The tag-track-trace capabilities of this platform should be a message to Supima, that APDN may not be willing to continue to only "track". Apdn is going to want Supima to come into the tag-track-trace fold.