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Perhaps we are witnessing one final bear raid?
Long and strong here, with added shares!
Sorry, RAF. Can’t seem to post image from my phone. They are thakingclinicians and patients who participated in the “historic “ trial. Quite an eye-catching ad. Front section. Timing is interesting, wouldn’t you agree?
Vascepa full page ad in Sunday NYT. Unprecedented. Feels like a bomb is about to drop.
Not sure why we are afraid of AF and MH at this point. They are not deciders, they are not thought leaders, and their media exposure is diminishing from what I can tell. I recommend staying confident through Monday and letting our experts get the message out in front of real deciders and thought leaders.
No worries, AirBaa, if anything it might get patients to ask their doctor for the latest medication they heard about and perhaps the doctor will consider prescribing V.
Looks like the NBC spotlight is on bempedoic acid, not EPA
Prediction for Monday: no corporate info and stock sinks about a dollar by mid-day recovering a third by end of day.
90% - $75 plus CVR - May 17 2019
If Joe Z said “ nothing less than $30” pre R-It what do you think it’s worth now?
And while I’m at it, my one month prescription recently went from $30 to $40.
Let’s put it this way: AMRN is GIA until BO. That’s why they have to hire and train sales staff, sign leases for office space etc. I can guarantee all here that a lease can be sub-leased, in case the space becomes unnecessary to AMRN or it’s successor. If anything the lease is yet another example of simply running a successful business...and the longer others take to consider a buyout the higher the potential cost of acquisition becomes.
HDG is once again right about BP not being able to let Vascepa and all those patents get away from them. (Thank you, JZ!) Just think, if EVAPORATE shows even modest results, V stands to become the number one prescription drug of all time. Even without EVAP it may still set Prescription records.
BP simply cannot afford to sit on the sidelines for this drug. In the meantime there are sales people to train and office leases that must go forward.
Hang in there folks! It’s coming, despite everything the opposition throws at it.
Nobody cares about retail investors, I think. The less of us, the better at this point. But that doesn’t mean Thero and major investors lack incentives to get full value for the company. The difference is, they probably don’t care if it takes two or three years -or more- to get there.
GIA is a real possibility if nobody comes up with a decent offer. JL has been right on the big points before and he could be right on this point too. And it might be the most brilliant option when all is said and done.
Then again we could get a great offer in the blink of an eye.
My point is this: If you can’t hang on to this kind of amazing once in a lifetime investment through long periods of market turbulence, political/regulatory uncertainty, cutthroat competition and outright skullduggery, how can you expect to be successful in the stock market?
Time to count our many blessings and advantages. Despite all the political posturing, fake news, etc., I am most thankful to the positive contributors to this board who have helped me live through the many difficult bagholder years. Many of us are still doing extremely well with our long term investment in AMRN and I have great confidence that 2019 will prove to be even better. All the best to everyone on the board, especially those whose faith remains unshaken. Peace to all!
Ilovetech-your Mom May also have a food allergy to blame for cold sores. My dental technician saw my problem and suggested I stop eating anything with walnuts. Changed my life! Now maybe V can also help but try going walnut free for a couple of weeks first.
AF was a lowly reporter on the real estate beat a few years back here in the SF Bay Area. He’s clearly not an insightful biotech journalist, merely a hack trying to keep bread in his mouth. His premeditated efforts to derail the V reception by means of placebo concern smells to high heaven. He should not have received info ahead of time since he falls far short of my concept of the term “journalist”. There’s an agenda there, and i’m Convinced it’s self-serving. I put him on ignore a long, long time ago.
Couldn’t Resist today. Bought more. Don’t have your patience, Tasty!
Bfost, I can’t make the AHA meeting much as i’d Like to. We are headed out on a cruise across the South Pacific. The ship sets sail on...November 11. How’s that for timing? (The cruise was booked pre 9-24. We’re upgrading the champagne). Any chance someone can post a photo or two? SFguy.
It’s not just the AHA embargo that’s in effect here...
AMRN officers have to be very tight lipped about disclosures for myriad reasons including: upsetting government regulators and “misleading” investors. Any missteps at this stage could be grounds for significant shareholder lawsuits, whether or not they are groundless.
I handed my iPhone to my husband on the morning of the announcement showing him the good news. He thought I only had the 10,000 shares I got stuck with on Adcom day. (At $10+.) So he was happy but not ecstatic. It took me until the next day to reveal that I had “averaged down significantly” over the past 3 years and held quite a lot more shares. He’s a lot happier about it now, of course, but we are still adjusting to it.
Last night, over a bottle of wine, we discussed how to proceed. We are holding everything and not selling to cover expenses. After 6 years of excruciating patience and angst, we are sleeping a whole lot better.
As most of you know, I have always been a cheerleader for Vascepa and AMRN, but it has been a really rough ride. Special thanks to JL, as well as to HDG, Vubru, Sam, Avi, North, BB, Louie, and others for keeping us well informed and helping me stay mentally intact throughout the journey.
There is still a lot of patience required for the foreseeable future and I look forward to reading this board every day.
Hope to see you all in LV.
A down day - finally I can get some good rest tonight!
SF party sounds great but we will be out of town. Sorry to miss the fun.
Definitely interested anytime between mid-January and end of February. Been on board -long all the way - since mid-2013.
I would like to share a couple of positive thoughts:
First and foremost I have felt for years now that bigger players have been trying for years to destroy this company. Now that we are on the cusp of trial success, they will do whatever they can to force us to relinquish our shares. I won’t be doing that.
Second, it makes good sense to me that the FDA would give some acceleration to approvals given not only the fact that they once had an SPA in place, but also because they have reiterated their commitment to making faster approvals.
Whatever the case I think the leadership of this company has done a superb job of fending off failure and when all is said and done we will be thanking them.
I appreciate the good humor on this board, which I read every single day.
"...selling the Hope Diamond for a six pack."
That's going into the JL Book of Great Quotes.
Sometimes CTRs relate to buyout discussions, but since AMRN is in the midst of a court battle, it could be related to that. I'm looking forward to the other guesses.
Pfizer in talks with P&G on sale of its consumer business?
Why would they want to pick up $15-$20 billion, I wonder? Does it have anything to do with pharma acquisitions? Like small pharmas? Like maybe AMRN?
I'm trying to look at the V Ads from a purely practical standpoint. Here are my thoughts:
AMRN wants a larger portion of ALL available markets, regardless of R-IT outcomes.
If R-IT succeeds, you benefit from early brand recognition - you're building demand and weakening resistance from health care providers. Sales ramp up faster and easier.
If R-IT fails, you're going after the "Purer and just plain better than fish oil" market. And that's a pretty big market, too.
Either way, advertising a few months out from R-IT results makes sense.
In addition to the millions of dollars in advertising, they are spending millions on legal fees to attack competitors in the DS market. DS companies are competition, regardless of R-IT results.
The difference between joint pain on V and placebo is in the fine print on the ad (2.3% vs. 1%). It's a good ad, certainly as good as any other medication ads, and since there's very little side effect warning, it seems even better.
After all AMRN has been through with over-reaching, deal-breaking FDA and their ineptitude with DS concerns, I'm not particularly worried about a more business-friendly judiciary ruling on FDA matters. The article I posted is about the judiciary, not the regulatory agency positions. You have to read the NYT very carefully so as to ignore alarmist content that really is not news, but left-wing conjecture.
I also picked up another 10k at 2.96.
Seems like the Trump administration is trying to put more power behind judges to rein in rule interpretation / administrative abuses of agencies like FDA. If so, it could be helpful to AMRN and many other pharma companies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/us/politics/trump-judges-courts-administrative-state.html
Put me down for 90%. I have averaged down to about $3.5 - probably holding too many shares, but I've taken V and I like what it does. Not selling.
I agree - serious manipulation is to be expected in the months ahead. It is clear that long, long ago unidentified forces were working to take the ball away from Amarin and give it to others. They've wanted this drug and all its patents for many years.
Now that that game plan seems to have failed (thanks to stalwart management of the Amarin team) and we are entering the final moments of the game, the tactic we should be expecting is that these unidentified others will resort to shaking us out of our investment.
They will be happy to huff and puff and hope we run away.
Baker Brothers et al were obviously not a party to that scheme, so they were left with acquiring shares in a more direct, open manner.
Two points about reaction to earnings:
1) apparently the loss included a one time tax provision adjustment of $13M? So without that the loss per share is as expected - around 4 cents. This is from GaryD on Yahoo, perhaps others can confirm.
2) Today's volume does not show a big rush for the exits.
Better days ahead?
Not sure what a "cheap entry" looks like anymore. We expected PPS to raise dramatically closer to R-IT results, but current run-up seems to speak to any number of potentially important developments that could positively effect AMRN PPS. Some people obviously feel they can't wait until Q2 to get in cheaply. So maybe the current price is as cheap as it will get.
Guess the Results
Wasn't going to do this, but here goes:
April 5 / Sept 12 / 29%
I've always felt AMRN's intent in filing with the ITC was more of a move to get FDA to clarify their position, so AMRN could move on to a larger matter, perhaps in the courts.
I don't have any idea what that larger matter may be, but I'm sure AMRN is now moving on to phase b of some sort of a plan. FDA can only stall so long before it is clear to a judge that FDA has done unfair damage to the company. Basically, FDA's admission that it has not yet come to terms on defining modified EPA as a drug is public record - and an omission of failure to fulfill their mission.
AMRN doesn't make these complaints just to be whiners, you know. Personally, I expect AMRN to file some new complaint with the courts in the near future, related to a 1A promotion.
Remember, FDA wasted a lot of DOJ time and money in the 1A case, and it looks like they're getting cornered by AMRN again. I expect some sort of 1A promotion agreement out of this - and relatively soon.
An ITC/1A connection? Thinking "aloud" here for your input:
Since AMRN has settlement about negotiating up to two off label promotions per year with the FDA, I suspect they’ve tried to get something approved in this arena. Since nothing has come of it, I suspect FDA is again keeping AMRN from promoting anything other than high TGs.
Rather than take this back to court, AMRN looks at what DS companies are allowed to promote, and files an ITC complaint. This forces the FDA to publicly declare its position on supplements vs. drugs. Once settled - either way - AMRN may have a clear path for taking this 1A promotion back to court - or at least forced FDA’s hand to approve an off label use.
Anyone else feel there’s a strong connection here?
ITC Complaint - IT HAD TO HAPPEN SOMETIME. Using just Basic Business Logic (BBL):
Scenario 1) R-IT is successful. This means a) more companies piggybacking on your research (both drug companies and dietary supplement companies) and b) more pressure on supply chain (availability and cost levels).
Solution? You file patent infringement handcuffs on drug companies, and (if FDA can't step up their game on dietary supplement industry), you complain to the ITC for trade violations.
OR
Scenario 2) R-IT is not successful. That means you have a smaller market, but you still have an approved drug to sell.
Solution? You do exactly the same thing in both scenarios.
There's really no difference in WHY to file an injunction. The only question is WHEN do you do it?
Well, it doesn't make any sense to wait any longer, now that AMRN can absorb the expense of litigation.
There, using BBL I have avoided any need to do any homework related to legal points, such as definitions, labeling, jurisdiction, etc. Nor do I need to trouble myself with the range of possible outcomes.
It simply HAD TO HAPPEN.
When you have your shareholders best interests at heart, you do what you have to do. And AMRN has some very noteworthy shareholders.
Resting somewhat easier here.
AMRN doesn't have a history of waging court battles it can't win. Earlier I mentioned they may have filed this suit as a method of getting FDA to declare their policy on drugs vs. supplements, so they can proceed. Not to mention getting competing products off the shelves. Once again, my money is on Amarin.
Kiwi, you seem to be suggesting AMRN is getting desperate to grow their market, by connecting the unimpressive scrips data and the new legal actions. I don't think they're really all that connected.
Logically, if AMRN already had label expansion, it would still make sense from them to get EPA products off the shelves. So regardless of their overall market position, it is definitely in the interest of all shareholders to get a ruling against this kind of competition.
Moreover, the fallout of this type of legal action may prove highly interesting in putting FDA on the spot. Keeping the pressure on, so to speak. Perhaps FDA isn't budging and AMRN is now forced to go through another channel to get FDA to be more favorable.
It's certainly tactical, but I wouldn't assume it's a sign of weakness.