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+10% Pre market Athens .653 , missed these fun nights watching Athens. Thank god ur back. Gonna be a wild wide up from here. Won't see a print in this range, Fridays rang, or Thursdays range for a very long time. Don't see a pullback cause as long as it looks clear no dilution. This should roll. Another interesting point I've learned is that there can't be dilution, when no form of senior dept or pref share or unsecured Dept doesn't participate. Would be anther reason Parius wrote that buyback. If there's no senior or Jr share structure how can there be dilution? Now you have bailout equity, Fins equity, and after deal, the sale of reissuing all bonds, and another preferred shares since these would be bought back under this theory. Now if you can't make it then, I give up. Even a prettier outlook , bailout, dept restructure , re issue preferred, sale of bonds , plus finfin. That would be the yellow brick road.
NBG is listed and not a otc ...OK why did you replay with that?? Cause I stated the greatest accounting move?? Not talking in that way. Talking about Piraeus buying all bonds and preferred and senior at higher rate and converted to common so they can't get wiped or crushed in recap and participate. That's why this is up, only reason. Cause you can see there all going to do that. No one never thought of that m
Piraeus basically saved every bond holder, preference share or senior dept holder from losing there money. There buying back all that and converting it to shares or cash. I would imagine there is a agreement that they would reinvest in shares. Since its at higher then last trade. So then any invested money in that is bought back at higher rate and made into common. You can't wipe out common under EU agreement that last till end of year. So I'd imagine doing that it would make sense there is no dilution needed. But buying back those allows after recap to sell a whole new first series of bonds, preferred and all. They would gain that capital and the recap money. That's the sole reason it ran. No other. Original report was during the meeting. Alpha and Euro was present. Later was reported that NBG was also present. So it would lead you to think worse case that's the plan. Explains preferred run, someone new buyback and at whatever rate. Explains the filling of shares the other day. Need those shares to issue the new ones buying back bonds and preferred.
Go down on Monday? Impossible. Things couldn't have played out better if they tried this 100 more x. First, let's look at the obvious. It was up today double digits, now why would today be so good if this vote was the expected outcome. Now, you saw the move Piraues Bank did right? If anything is gonna go down bad, they can play that move. The single greatest accounting move I've seen in my life. But what about the biggest issue that it has in favor of Greece which they have never before. They have another country planing on exiting the EU. Britain has stated all week they want to leave end of 2017. Let's say the do leave, then what? Can the hole EURO currency itself collapse, allowing all countrys to go back to original currency pre? Well shit, Greece wouldn't be paying back a dime to no one after that, and all these laws they could change. Plus Greece new fiance leader is pretty confident that he's going to get the creditors down some. Another factor, Smart money usually knows what's up. Last two days run into this vote...you don't think someone knows what's up? Come on.
Exactly. Its the piece that no one could know at that time. But I would be they announce it at Athens close today.
Going to over a dollar today alone under major squeeze cause there gonna follow Parius move. Senior bonds and dept is turned to commons forcing all those common shares onto the market
If nbg follows Piraus move, this will be a short squeeze like for the ages. The senior bonds and preferred shares are bought at face value for cash or common. Most will choice common there for your gonna have a massive amount of common shares bought at once. NBG will do the same and common price will raise and be under short squueze of ages.... There gonna wipe senior dept and bonds bought there will be non cause it will all be turned over at that date. So there will be no dilution, cause the dilution would then be the senior dept and bonds. But really there would be no no loses just a crafty accounting move it I have this right and im like 1000% sure.
Does anyone have a price for the bonds and the pps preferred shares that Parius Bank announced today to buy back? Thats what has everything up. It's obviously NBG path to follow with their preferred. From what I read of it, it states they are buying all back for cash or conversation to common. But it states at full value??? Which if NBG did it NBGpA would be bought back at $25 pps. Thats full value of the bond price pps.
Your right on that this is only a piece of the puzzle that's about to hit. Cause it was from 6 months ago, as if things went south this was a insurance policy to balance something out. What idk. But, after reading that the stress test was 50% weighted to the upside more then last. Was another warning that cloudy Sky's are lerking. I'm still with my gut that common somehow will be diluted or wiped to basically a 0 value. Buy back preferred at a set rate and reissued. Preferred has been boxed in at 8.40 to 8.80 for some time. As if someone might have a idea what buyback price will be , so 8.40 is value to buy them knowing they're buying them back. Can't see any reason to justify the risk factor of holding shares thru the period of unknown. Very little upside in holding them till anyone has a good idea. Downside is the floor I would say. Myself I'd rather recoup loses after knowing what is happening.
Don't know what's simply so hard to understand. Sure they could have done all there dd. Never said they couldn't have, I'm sure anyone laying out big sums would do of course. But after there DD and there investment, if they have a chance to talk to him off the record on the side and maybe hear something they didn't like wouldn't take some of there investment off the table. That's so far off the wall??? Once again when I wrote that, I said it's just a guess and pure speculation. Simply posting on a board that's about having a discussion about AVXL. Sorry for trying to start a discussion.
Explain why its irrational? Never seen a board on this site in my life that's so sensitive. It's irrational to think that if i had invested a good amount of money over the past couple days and had a chance to meet Missling today and had a chance to have the personal wealth to have breakfast with Missling and maybe heard something I didn't like would be impossible?? It's really irrational to think that this doesn't happen. It's very common. Not saying Missling would be doing something wrong, just its very very common to ask questions that aren't allowed to be responded to, nor to even expect when asking the question to get the answer you wanted. But just to either observe the persons body language, or how they try to respond to the question in a polite way saying they can't answer that, but ill leave it at this....
Sorry that you hold yourself to such a greater level of intellect then to me or others at time's that you simply feel the need to defend everything about AVXL as if they are some RELIGIOUS GOD. Have a great day bud, hope this goes thru the roof. But have better things then to have a conversation with someone like you. Your arrogance in the past on this board is simply something i'm not fond of. If my spelling or paragraph or punctuating isnt perfect for you, im sorry. But i'm writing and trading and taking care of my son and watching 6 screens at once. So really those three things to me are the least of importance. Have a great day and lets hope we get the news we are expecting in November so we can all have a great holiday season this year.
I've been here since .73, just talking about the action today. Relax. Pull up my posts you will see it from way back in beginning of August. Of course with float now so tight Volatility will be out of the roof. But not to analyze the action each day over the next two or three weeks till Spain is just a pure mistake. Somewhere there will be a indicator in action of what will happen.
Ok for the posters stating that there shorting, Ive now can confirm that Interactive brokers isn't allowing shorting till after uplisting. So Scottrade you cant cause its non marginable. Etrade has non and doesnt allow it. I can confirm Ameritrade, Trade king, Schwab. So really stating your shorting this when you could at only maybe two brokers that allow it on OTC, is just making yourself look like a dope. Not to mention interactive brokers the account min is crazy high, and the other i know that allows otc is also high but not as high. So if you could have a account there to afford to short this if there where shares to short I think you wouldn't be here posting about it. You would be better places. Nothing against any of us here posting.
Wait retailers cant sell for a week?? Huh. We are retail investors, Ive been able like anyone else sell there shares. What are you talking about as far as retailers?
No matter what this action is not a good sign, Missling is given a speech today right?? So who knows what the heck is being said. I doubt its MM playing games cause with uplisting coming they don't want to play around till its uplisted. My guess would be worst case, Speech isn't as positive as a investor thought that might have invested yesterday and is exiting...or worse case financial info might be needed more on audit of uplisting. Pure guessing as of cause. But last week on the news of uplisting and split had to be leaked somewhere cause that day was crazy. Obviously that days action was caused by the pr on the share structure of the company being so far off that if anyone would have gotten that pr ahead of time would have ran.
You keep saying your shorting this, but what broker are you shorting this thru?? I find it hard to believe that there is any that will allow shorting on a 20 day symbol change..... Plus 9.90 short, you did that today? That print is missing from the prints so far out of trades on tape
What broker are using to short this? Cause Scottrade and Etrade wont short it or is there any shares to short..
Theres two more paragraphs in that pr, they are
TapImmune CEO Glynn Wilson commented, "Having recently completed significant clinical and corporate advancements, we look forward to presenting investors with our upcoming pipeline of Phase 2 studies and associated milestones that we believe will be important catalysts for our company's growth."
The full day conference will include two track presentations from over 30 companies in healthcare/technology and consumer sectors including an uplist "Boot Camp". The conference is attended by Dawson James' institutional, family office and high net worth clients. Dawson James Securities is a full service investment firm specializing in the complex and fast-moving healthcare, biotechnology, technology and clean-tech sectors.
Been on sidelines here watching, anyone with a strong logical view on either side. Myself I just don't trust there government.. Also anyone with the math skills to figure out possible pps six months from now saying that no bail in on anyone? Bail in, would be what pps. If a bail in is done any word with the participates Oder? Guessing bonds, Jr and senior dept holders, and then preceded shares, then commons? I have a sick feeling on how this will play out. Sell Finbing, place that as cash asset towards a new formed bank. Leave bondholders out. Buy preferred shares back , the ones they couldn't buy back last may 12.50 was offer then. So let's say the same or $10 flat . then wipe out all common shares. Then they will have the assest from sell of finbing. Use that to buy back preferred. Say its 12 mill shares at 12.50. Say 140 mill to buy those. Then re offer new preferred at IPO 25$ share of 25 mill shares They would gain another 140mill in free assets. 140 mill plus finbank they would be setting pretty. They could then have private investors confidence to particapte in new bonds sales. Then maybe IMF would want to step in if they could get Dept relief on those dead loans of housing and business loans from ECB. That scenario would make there bank do a 360. But of course creditors must agree on it and delay it with agreement till Jan 1st to wipe commons. The money from bailout would be delayed till Jan 1st but they would survive easily with finbank sale and then issuing new bond sales cause the PPP private sector and bond market would be secure again. I hope this doesn't happen. But that's my gut feeling.
Hey can someone give me a update here? I've been away paying attention to other stocks...what's the catalyst in this run? Has there been a change in the recap thinking? Meaning is common shares still gonna get diluted? Cause my first thought was thinking a short selling ban in Athens to raise the commons pps, therefore they can dilute there sharers and not any senior or junior shares. Cause I remember when it was in the low 50s the rumor was it was to low to dilute shares. Just don't want to get trapped in more loses here. Thanks
Think tmrw is green for sure. Just think of anyone who has a short position from a Scottrade account. They still haven't fixed the accounts, so anyone who is short from there will be jumping over each other to cover when Scottrade fixes the issue. I don't know if anyother firms are having the same issue, I find it hard to believe Scottrade is the only one. But if there's more, then its only going to be more jumping over each other.
I want to buy!!!! But with the position I have now reflecting $0 worth in my account it screw up my whole margin account. It has my whole account fkd up.
Anyone have Scottrade? They still haven't got the split in and you can't even buy or sell the new symbol yet.
Who would short this with such a low float?? I'm absolutely postive that no big hedge funds will. It would make zero cents. To short a low float into expected news, is suicide. Now I can see it two months maybe after results and it gets institutions involved. Then it will be shorted to a certain percentage like all high risk bio stocks. Did anyone really not expect this to happen? It was clear they where uplisting, this was how it was going to happen for months. Keep in mind thu, 7.60pps is break even point of opening price today. So 6.00pps open, seems farther away then 1.45 to 1.90.
So why are you taking a strong stance at shorting at 1.90? Cause I must be missing something... I short the majority of time. But, I cant see one good reason to short it. Not to mention, if you are a shorter, your going against some very key rules that must live by...such as, shorting a stock that has finished at the high of the day, shorting a stock on consecutive days of abnormal high volume(indicator of news brewing)
Those who think its due for consolidation or saying short at 1.90. Well first why didn't you short today at 1.90 the last ten minutes of trading? More importantly, pull up daily chart dating back to the beginning of this run from .40. How many times has it closed or within a point or two, of the high of the day and then be red the next day? I can't find one!!! This animal usually when its ready to run, will close at or near the high of the day for many consecutive sessions. Also this trend is found in many micro cap stocks. It's very rare, that any small or micro cap will finish red, when the day before it showed tremendous strength and was plus more then 5% and closing pps was at or near the high of the day. Really I don't even know why you would want to short at 1.90?? That's coming from someone who loves to short like myself. There is no technical reason to, there has been abnormal volume the past couple days with no news. That's usually a strong indicator of something brewing. Any kind of news will send this soaring, like it has in the past.
The short ban is only in Athens Ex. Can still short both ADRs.
Why wouldn't NBG just wipe out all shareholders and preferred and bonds? They can't bail in anyone till Jan 1st, but the creditors can still delay a finalized recap from taking action if its applied for until Jan 1st. If they would sell FINSBAG for even half of the $$ reported offered. Wipe out everyone, and use that equity to start from scratch. Anyone with a heavily ventured interest could easily be taken care of out of the new Bank shares formed after 1st. What is the other upside of still trying to make it work? Your gona have a company with share structure thru the roof, in a economy far from even a ray of light of any good days. So to me, you our only gonna have this shot one more time. Either fight for survival for 5 to 10years or start over on small loses that they can over compensate each other to easily make all loses back in a year. Hate to say it but I'm starting to believe that's the endgame being played here. Can't see why not do it. Kills me to come to this .
Appears to be nice sleeper into earnings on 10/12. Had golden cross, on wave 5 of uptrend. Earnings winner last quarter. Still overly shorted, even after over 2mill shorts covered last 15 days. Is there any more postives to be said. I'm entering this Tmrw.
Gonna go with these two Greek ADR for the next six months or at least to Jan 1st when the recap is done with the Common. Both are low float. So with that being said first is GOFBY, its the Greece Football team or really soccer. No matter how buried you are, no matter the dept, anyone will support the sports team. Plus it will bring bonding and cheap entertainment to a economy about to get smashed on living expenses, and have most annual Income's reduced by a 1/4. I feel a bond of a buried country forming on there football team. Pick two will be IRLTY its there casino and sports betting company. Along with gaming machines and lottery. OK, I get it? There broke and buried I just said. But anyone who gambles knows that there gonna try and win there money back that is being lost from non gambling to began with. Most gambling company's will thrive in there current environment. Not like a U.S. town of Casinos, that would be hard hit on this. This should thrive on those who can afford to take loses will only see the comp rates go up. Plus it should begin to form a culture stance on who might be still wealthy over there. Can't invest in cars or boats or real estate with the rate of taxes sky rocketing. So they will need to show there wealth to other wealthy people, only areas I can think of would be fine art and gambling. Nothing like flashing wads of money to show you ain't broke. Also most who gamble on a regular basis or on a hobby rate show that they tend to gamble more on economic pressure of bills and income needed. Trying to win the bill money is always better then sitting still and get evicted with half the rent! This field I do have experience in as a was once a 8year shift supervisor at Caesars Casino in the Simulcasting and table game area. Those are my long Greece plays till the recap. Sorry for off topic mod, just only dome and gloom facing NBG temporary. But I say, a new year will bring better days. Till then, it's gonna suck.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/201953/article/ekathimerini/business/greece-lenders-to-decide-on-prior-actions-for-loans love this cover story on a Monday morning to start off the week. Don't worry anyone not trashing commons. I'm on the sidewalk with them till recap. I'm really hoping the preferred sinks to new 52 week lows by next week. Bonds are up early in trading also.
Good answer. Sounds 100% correct and most responsible answer.
Looks to me as it is dividend related. That period of 9/28 to 12/29 fits right into the 4th quarter. Almost certain that earnings are due out Monday. Cause in August they filled for a delay of 30 days. Bank of Mellon is the bank that handles almost all ADR's. If earnings due come out Monday then we will find out for sure.
The news wire you posted about preferred have you figured out what that was? It appears to me that its in reference to the quarter dividend once again not being payed. Cause if I recall right, the earning that was due on 8/29 was filled for a thirty day delay. Which made the earnings date to 9/29/2015. Looks like that news is that the dividend will stay suspended again for the quarter. I could be wrong. I have no news in my trading platform for preferred and I cant even find that. But looking at the dates, it appears that it has to do with earnings that are due on the 29th that was delayed a month from Aug 29th.
Whats up Blaster? Haven't logged in the last couple days. But yea Preferred are tradable, shortable, no different then anyother listed stock. I will say this, there are different kinds of preferred. They are non-cumulative, which means when the dividend is suspended, and is re-instated whenever that might happen, that they are not entitled to any back dividend payments missed. Non-cumulative is usually the worse kind of preferred to own, of any preferred share. The way there preferred is setup, it is no different then a bond. It will always follow in opposite direction of what the Greece bond yields are doing. Yields go up, preferred will go down. If yields go down, the pps will rise. But for sure it is tradeable and shortable. Cause Im currently getting my ass kicked from shorting. Although Im in seeing sight of being even. Took everything in me not to cover three days ago. Almost wiped my whole account out.
The preferred shares will always follow the path of Greek Bonds. Its basically no different then a bond. If you pull up a price chart of 2yr,5yr,10yr Greece Bonds you will see that the preferred follows it. If four weeks ago as yields went up, preferred crashed, two weeks ago yields started to staplize and drop, that's when preferred made its run. Then take from Four days ago to today, the yields once again began to go up steadily, thus preferred has begun to sink again. Anyday before trading starts just pull up what the bond yields have done in Athens and that will tell you clearly whether the preferreds will be up or down for the day.
Well in Athens a court ruling came in a about a hour or two ago, that investors on a power plant had filed, to fight the sale of it to creditors and to make it private. It ruled in favor of investors. There are other pending suits on many others, these kind of delays will hurt the banking sector cause this has to get done by Jan 1st, else the floor might hit all shareholders. Sept 24th will bring some clarity, I believe that's the date that creditors will give a statement about the banking sector and the recap pending.
Tispris comments have been very alarming. Many in the ECB and Germany really didn't want him to win nor do they trust him. He has already stated that there should be some changes of the bailout that he will try to negotiate. Not the banking bailout, but other sectors. ECB responded saying that there will and can't be any changes. Really the creditors have more power then the prime minister as of now. But if any delay happens in the bailout with him trying to change stuff that will cause a delay in the bailout. Any delay will force this into 2016. 2016 they new banking laws made by the ECB kick in. Making tax payers not on the hook for a bailout but investors. Those causing a bail in that could wipe out all shareholders. Not saying that will happen and if it was, there are legal challenges to that. But that is the fear. Also the fact that as long as this continues, NBG can't write phantom bonds to themselves to keep them afloat. So there is a lot of fear that any delay will cause the other more unstable banks to go into bankruptcy. Which if any do, it will cause a sell off of all. On a good note the interest rate on shorts went up today. I got a notice on my interest rate on shorts on preferred where I'm down close to 14K in my position. That's a great notice to receive when your crushed in the position like me. Lol.
Think the solid play has been exposed and really most profit that was worth the risk has since gone. If you believe that the deal can get done by Dec 31st, and that they're will be no bail in. The preferred was the right angle. Cause all reports are saying that the ecb will have to buy back all preferred since they are a hybrid share of preferred more similar to a bond. The liquidation value is $25 a share. They did a similar buy back in the 2nd bailout. Most reports have it at 50% of liquidation value which is 12.50. So it still has a 50% upside. But all this buying has mostly been retail. On the other side you have Moodys downgrading the preferred shares which are non cumulative from CA(hybd) to C(hybd). With another review pending in a month. Also it seems the float has been loosened up some. Beginning to trade tighter and beginning to see buys on level 2 from BATS and FINRA exchange. Has been mostly GCTC for a week. Hoping someone is shorting this now other then me. Cause I just got a call from my broker the interest rates on these bowored shares go up tmrw. I'm not short common so I don't know if they did also. But since I got the call common has been inching it's way up. So who knows.