Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
I agree, especially since this drug has been around forever with a good safety profile, I get the protocol for larger testing but there seems to be more harm possible by not just getting this widely done vs waiting a few weeks to a month for more controlled studies.
Let’s hope they use it in many cases in conjunction with the antibiotic used in the France study. I know that was a small sample but the difference shown in the 6 taking both was statistically significant. Seems to get lost in much of the push to get this drug out.
I think when a spokesman for a study goes on TV and says the trial had 100% success rate and that this is the second time in history science has found a cure for a virus (Hepatitis C) I think the market may want to see if there really is a cure, but until we know for sure it's hard to imagine a bottom being reached, too much hope.
I Don't know enough to disagree but I'm personally very hopeful science will help resolve this way sooner than people think.
Of course they are still wearing masks. That's just common sense There are other countries that have kept it under control.
Some of your ideas are good. But rushing a vaccine has bad implications, it's been done before with bad side effects. The better hope is one of the promising drugs or a combo of the drugs being tested can be used on the sick to alleviate the symptoms and prevent death as these drugs are already on the market with a safety profile
If the China Model fails then people are going to say screw it and go out, people are not staying in there homes for more than a month.
At this point can the pandemic be bigger than expected? The noise is now 12-18 months of this current state until a vaccine is made. The market is starting to price in mass bankruptcy and the end of the world economy as we know it.
A few issues with that
-The economy cannot handle 60 days of being closed, never Mind 12-18
-The vast majority of people, at some point, will just go out and risk it because it is better than 12 months cooped up considering the symptoms for most are minimal. I think if Trump announced they expect you to stay this way for 12 months people would just open restaurants and bars and live life.
-In that case The elderly and at risk may need to quarantine themselves until a vaccine, or cases dissipate due to mass immunity.
-China seems to be close to no new cases and took nowhere near 12-18 months.
-Science may have something to treat the sick within 2 months with the 2 drugs previously mentioned seemingly working for many and many other drugs being tested.
-We need to let the distancing play out a few weeks, if it works like China things will turn good as a light will be seen.
Between Favipiravir and Remdesivir we have 2 drugs showing promise, 1 in earlier stages of the virus, an 1 in later stages though there seems to be a stage where it's to far along for either.
Hopefully the early results on these are legitimate, both should have results leaking out more the next month and fully out early May
"Clearly effective" in regards to quotes on Favipiravir
"It's just absolutely amazing" in regards to cruise ship passengers helped on Remdesivir
This is a virus, similar to other viruses that have been studied and had drugs developed against, I HOPE a cure of some level is closer than anyone realizes and these 2 drugs are the most promising. If we can reduce the virus' effect NOW we then have plenty of time to get the vaccine in a year or so out as weakening the virus for quicker recovery also slows the spread.
I don’t know but the next 2 weeks are crucial, everything is cancelled now, weather starts turning warmer, the day over day trend of cases dropped for first time today worldwide. Probably an anomaly.
Early April first results from Gilead. Since most recover if it did spread really fast the immunity build up would kill it off just would take awhile.
Yup next 2 weeks will tell if this is a short term things or will effect everything for 6 months or more.
Never gonna happen.
You really think there are people left on margin after the recent onslaught? I don't think margin calls are driving anything, plain and simple fear.
99.9999% of people are in a community with no exposure to the virus so when Tom Hanks gets it and NBA suspends games and President suspends flights they start thinking maybe it's everywhere!
If they closed the court house we'd get a decision faster because all the court proceedings would stop and Judge Du could concentrate on writing the answers to the cases that are awaiting decision.
I disagree completely. They can’t just pay cash to go away, they have to give something. With the Teva settlement the only thing they could do is pay them and agree to move up generics date, they are not allowed to just pay them to go away, it does not work like that. Being a one drug company moving up the generic date is a complete no go unless you think you’re going to lose the court case.
They win this, all risks are over, they settle then other generics sue on same grounds and it goes on forever.
When this comes down in favor of Amarin they have a 10 year guaranteed run. You can invest your entire fortune in Amarin and in 10 years you won’t have lost money for sure as just on their current trend the cash flows over the next 10 years will be more than the market cap. The risk is low of them losing, people seem to be concentrating on the fact that the company is in deep Doo Doo if they lose which is such a small percentage chance. The flipside is they Will have eliminated 100% of all possible risks for the next bunch of years. That’s huge. The stock will probably go up 10 to 20% and then people will fade that rally, then you need to invest everything you have because it’s as guaranteed a win as you’ll ever find.
And I’m not one to not be critical of management. The last raise was completely unnecessary. They are never going to use that money that they raised. They easily could’ve got a line of credit in case of emergency need as they spent money for the DTC. The options plan is way too management friendly and dishes way too many shares under the guise of they are not compensated enough on salary. The one decision they made was to see reduce it through to the end and not sell out. Otherwise I’m not sure how any the other management team would’ve done anything differently other than the final dilution, with better management, would never have happened. That was a clear management error IMO.
But to take this through trial, I don’t think they had any other choice, I think the generics settlement wishes would mainly be related to moving up the date they can supply the generic. It’s not about paying them $20 million to go away it’s about losing $5-$6 billion in revenue on the other end.
Yes, unless I’m really confused which is always possible
In addition, the percentage of brand drugs experiencing a patent challenge has increased over time, with 100 percent of blockbuster drugs and roughly half of non-blockbuster drugs approved in 2002 and 2003 undergoing challenges.
A survey of the litigation outcomes of Paragraph IV challenges for blockbuster drugs shows that outcomes vary significantly according to the type of patent challenged. Generic drug manufacturers secured court wins in 61 percent of their challenges against non-active-ingredient patents, but only 16 percent of their challenges against active-ingredient patents. More than a quarter of both active ingredient and non-active ingredient patent challenges resulted in settlements between the parties.
https://www.cornerstone.com/Publications/Research/Trends-in-Pa
He's actually doing better today, market is turning negative so stock is now just trading with the market after the original crash.
It sounds like they have minimum 2 billion in inventory capacity, big news to me. Also $5 billion number thrown out so that's where they are thinking peak sales as of today. Some good info today
Canada is not that valuable and the offer seemed reasonable. I don't think the company in Canada matters like it does in the EU. Much easier process to get coverage etc.
It means 1 of a few things
1) They want to see if they can sell the company after completely de-risking so after court decision they will see if there is an offer to buy the company they would deem worthy to take and if they sold off EU before these negotiations then it hurts negotiating the best price
2) They have not gotten any offers for EU partnership they like so they figure they might get better offers once they are closer to approval. I'm sure if someone had come in with large cash up front and large royalties they'd have done a deal. Offers are probably underwhelming to Amarin.
3) They know they have to allay any partner concerns in terms of inventory. If they project billions in US sales in 3-4 years how do they propose they will get enough inventory for EU also, I imagine any partner would want to see the plan to be able to supply the EU. A BP partner is going to want to increase sales in EU rapidly, lack of inventory would be a major question IMO.
Or more likely a combination of all 3 above.
The Option volatility really jumped today, next week's calls and Puts were both up, 17.50 Puts next week are $1.00. $18 calls same thing, yet we pretty much know the 4Q results, I would not expect huge move on earnings and too early for result from court. I wish they'd let me just sell a million calls and puts for next Friday.
You would reduce your profits but you can also reduce risk and you can sell the 16 puts and buy the 14 puts. You'd net close to $1 and risk to the downside would be close to a $1. If it is under 14 it would probably because suit result went bad though market crash not out of the question.
That's only because he is weighting the chance of them winning into that price. He already had a $13 price target after the failures of the "competitor" drugs. He just-re-iterated that and added his belief they'd lose the case but IF they lose the case he'll be back to update the price to $7, don't you worry, good thing is that is not going to happen and he now set himself up to raise the price after they rule for Amarin.
Basically he gave $7 price target due to competitor threat, that threat went away, and he upped to $13.
He's just playing the same game, Put the trial result out there as some negative uncertainty and then you can adjust your price after the verdict whichever way you want, down and say I was right about risk, or up and say the high risk did not come to fruition.
What did JT do to her?! JK, I think???
She did say it was taken care of and behind her but maybe it wasn't really.
Can't wait for her next blog post!
There a very good chance she left because it wasn’t a good fit as I mentioned.
In 1 deal I was involved in the owner hired a guy to update website, refresh company look, show management how to present data, found out later was just hired to help company get sold but everyone was told it was permanent position until he had completed the makeover then he helped present to suitors, when deal was done he stopped working a week before closing but contract for large payout was valid as long as it closed in certain time at certain price.
So ANYTHING is doable.
Again very possible she left because not a fit and unhappy. But BO scenario after court case IMO is viable option. Like I said, could be wrong and probably am, just speculation as I stated multiple times.
Seems the entertainment value of my post was extremely high. Just what Internet message boards are made for.
We’ll see if the speculation has any basis in about 2 months.
It is speculation so who knows the reality but what you list is really not a concern. She would sign confidentiality agreements and, yes, things get out sometimes but usually not. Having been in rooms for these deals the paranoia about going to jail and insider trading and such is extremely high. Looking at her blog, and getting a sense what she is like if she signed it she's not telling anybody anything. I can't overestimate the paranoia people have over not blabbing and getting in trouble.
Right, myself nor anybody really has any idea what happened but nothing else to make up stuff about while waiting for Late March.
If you read her last blog, interestingly its about respect, so maybe it was work related, maybe the "incident" was not work related but could just be it didn't work out?
So, the word I drew is “Respect.” It’s serendipitous that I should pick that word out of at least 100 others because it has been buzzing around in my head lately. Sure, I’ve belted out over many years Aretha Franklin’s song “R-E-S-P-E-C-T,” and I was taught by my parents to always respect others. But I experienced a recent incident, that has since been resolved, where I felt disrespected, and I hated how dehumanized and minimized I felt
https://fishertrentcommunications.com/blog/f/my-epiphany-of-2020
My due diligence at the time she was hired led me to that conclusion. That was her niche IMO. Might be wrong but don't think so.
Maybe she gets them anyways, we don't know the deal she has. She has absolutely no job, nothing to do if the BO is agreed to pending the court decision. She is not going to want to sit and stare at the window all day.
Of course, the fact she may not have been a good fit and vice versa is very much a possibility.
She has work in GIA scenario or continued BO negotiations so realistically IMO it is one of 2 things
-BO done contingent on court case
-She was not a good fit, hire did not work out as both parties hoped for whatever reason.
The scenario they decided to GIA so she quit makes no sense anyway you analyze that so it is one of the above.
FYI on January 23 she was still being quoted so stock price was going south before she quit.
Her Linkedin says January 2020 she left, that just led me to believe the BO is done depending on court outcome because if true then she would have nothing to do.
She managed to update that January date but other than her own business does not have a new job listed. So that could lead you to believe she just didn't fit and they mutually agreed to part was.
Since she is mainly been involved in getting places sold, if the deal is NOT done pending the court decision then she left because they are GIA and she wants no part of that,
So there you have it, basically we have no idea what it means but my first hunch is she has nothing to do because company is sold as soon as decision comes down.
Most drugs don't have a new, 10 times the size indication available to them in Q1.
Realistically they need to be doing close to 100% year over year to get to 800-900 for the year in sales which is what I think they should have for an internal goal. You would THINK they'd get more than that in 4Q with the DTC launch and all the time to train sales reps between now and then so 90% up for first half and 110% up for second half should be a reasonable goal.
I have not gone back and looked at January 2019 scripts to see if we are almost double or not YOY. That would be telling if someone has that posted, not sure if that was posted and I missed it?
They are never going to GIA in EU, they’ve said they would not. They don’t have the structure in place to launch that themselves, they need a partner, that’s not a question, just a question as to when and how much they get and give up.
Right, which is why a settlement was going to be difficult. If Amarin was offering no better than the Teva timeline, which Teva gets there timeline moved up if someone else gets better, all they could offer is to pay attorney fees, and generics probably have lawyers on staff that are paid either way, so the additional cost of trial is probably built into budgets anyways so, with nothing to gain in settling why not take a shot in the dark?
Perhaps Amarin could have paid enough in "legal fees" to make it worthwhile to bail but incentive was not large for generics to settle as timeline is probably what they are after most.
Do sales reps get some small amount of shares upon hiring or that vest in a number of years but vest in case there is a BO? I thought I read that at some point somewhere...
This line sums up the whole trial to date and why Amarin is a slam dunk winner here unless something unexpected happens.
"Overall- not much here that differed from opening trial briefs."
Possibly but it'd be up a lot more if that word was out.
I've heard that argument but saying the evidence is so weak I don't even need to wait until trial is over to analyze is going to be a lot harder to overcome than analyzing a written detailed decision later that can be picked apart.
A summary judgement would be great, unlikely to happen IMO based on the knowledge of this judge but a strong win if that happens. I can't believe people would wish for her to deny a summary judgement because they worry about that being overturned down the line but not the fact that she turns down a summary judgement meaning on appeal they can at least say the judge saw some merit to our case to deny the summary judgement.
So Yes please and thank you to a ruling from the bench, the fact it is unexpected would make the judgement even stronger if this particular judge was to do that.
And posts would go down by half here as they could only analyze one of the 2 items left!
At the worst case they need 800 million to break even on the year, they should end up close to that if not exceed it and could be profitable at 700 million based on the 200 million expense run rate happening only in Q3 and Q4.
I think Q1-Q3 are overall minor losses and Q4 is a big profit, expect a small profit on the full year.
Both easy wins for Amarin. The angst here is understandable only considering a miracle happens and bad decision the stock goes to $8 but the analysis of this court case has replaced the Adcom build up (which was obviously going to be 16-0) in its hysteria.
So far no surprises and what was in the briefing docs has been re-affirmed, I expect that will continue, if so it's 100% Amarin win. Is there a miracle nugget not in the briefing docs that is going to hit? That's the only thing needing debate at this point, otherwise this is a slam dunk and always has been, same as the Adcom vote.
Assuming GIA, I wonder what thing people will get all worked up about for no logical reason after March?
What company was that?
Too bad the landing page was clearly built by someone with no internet marketing experience.
I would ASSUME the point would be to have them click through to the Vascepa site? Then they built that site wrong. Maybe they wanted to make that link to the Vascepa site as difficult to find as possible due to some FDA restrictions?