I disagree completely. They can’t just pay cash to go away, they have to give something. With the Teva settlement the only thing they could do is pay them and agree to move up generics date, they are not allowed to just pay them to go away, it does not work like that. Being a one drug company moving up the generic date is a complete no go unless you think you’re going to lose the court case.
They win this, all risks are over, they settle then other generics sue on same grounds and it goes on forever.
When this comes down in favor of Amarin they have a 10 year guaranteed run. You can invest your entire fortune in Amarin and in 10 years you won’t have lost money for sure as just on their current trend the cash flows over the next 10 years will be more than the market cap. The risk is low of them losing, people seem to be concentrating on the fact that the company is in deep Doo Doo if they lose which is such a small percentage chance. The flipside is they Will have eliminated 100% of all possible risks for the next bunch of years. That’s huge. The stock will probably go up 10 to 20% and then people will fade that rally, then you need to invest everything you have because it’s as guaranteed a win as you’ll ever find.
And I’m not one to not be critical of management. The last raise was completely unnecessary. They are never going to use that money that they raised. They easily could’ve got a line of credit in case of emergency need as they spent money for the DTC. The options plan is way too management friendly and dishes way too many shares under the guise of they are not compensated enough on salary. The one decision they made was to see reduce it through to the end and not sell out. Otherwise I’m not sure how any the other management team would’ve done anything differently other than the final dilution, with better management, would never have happened. That was a clear management error IMO.
But to take this through trial, I don’t think they had any other choice, I think the generics settlement wishes would mainly be related to moving up the date they can supply the generic. It’s not about paying them $20 million to go away it’s about losing $5-$6 billion in revenue on the other end.
