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Someone wake me when consolidation is over Zzzz
SMCI Sell-off kind of set a lot of momentum across all chips. Interesting an equity sale spurr3d a 12% drop though.
Trimming some at 900 or the morning rush. Haven't decided yet. I don't like having this much exposure.
A little trimming here and there. 910s and 920s felt like a good spot to reduce. Just getting back in from the ones I took from 822-865 and flipped. I didn't know how I felt about robinhood for a high risk account, but the overnight opportunities are great.
Agreed. We're on track. Last chance here. Adding another volley to my position.
Time to reload. Going 20% in
If we retrace back above 188.38 I'll change my tune and say the worst is behind us, but not a penny less as of right now.
Fair chance of that. In the meantime, I need new kicks... ;) Nike does a great job at surprising market. It definitely did during covid. It and FedEx has promising earnings coming up. But I'll take Nike over FedEx. UPS is way better. They actually train their drivers, union wages, competent workforce. I'd be happier if FedEx never got a dime from me. But Nike is a brand name like Macy's that just won't die. Even if the chatter on Nvidia doesn't produce much, because what do they have until next earnings, after this? There's still other opportunities. I do anticipate more pullbacks now that it's apparent that even the impossible bull rally can slip up.
One thing that definitely enticed me after this PPI report was the energy sector. Producer costs going up were largely in part to oil, and other raw goods. Copper especially jumped. Until those come back down, I don't have a high hope in a better PPI, because a hot CPI follows when PPI is bad. We all know companies like to pass the buck onto consumers when price margins contract.
Yeah Powell has a mess on his hands for sure right now. The rate pause was oil related. Average days of oil left was 30-40 until September 2023, it fell to 17. Well... that's kind of what spurred a lot of what we're all seeing right now. Oil is still king and I have an inkling it's only going to get worse. It's a shame people still think it's a "fossil fuel." Fossils stop at the sedimentary layer and oil is drilled more often from way further below into granite. It's the "resin" if you will, leftover from thermostatic exchange of rock to magma and back in the sweet spot temp +/- 1 degree from solid to liquid. Byproduct that we just will never be able to consume fast enough.
Kind of like how water can be solid, liquid, and gas all at once at the perfect temp and pressure. But Rockefeller wasn't dumb. Coin it fossil fuels and make it seem like it's scarce so you can jack the price through the roof. Old reservoirs that were emptied, refilling over and over. The more you know... anywho.
We're in a very interesting transition phase. If Powell can beat the rising energy costs, the rally will continue! But I don't personally believe it's in the cards, unless this starts to get very political.
I'm inclined to say that the broader market will trend down more. Chips may stilt it up, but Wednesday will be interesting...
Projecting a very bad Thursday-Friday.
PPI is more important than CPI and is a good reason for rush into gold. Producer cost means more than consumer cost. The fact that we didn't trade lower is worrisome. It may impact June cuts and we might see a structure shift away from this rally, cooling off until June. Fed meeting Wednesday offering any insight will highly impact the end of the week into next week. NVDA might rally, but I consider this, long term to be the first significant notch on the post against euphoria of higher highs.
Thanks bud. There's a video on Nvindar, the guy responsible for that flash crash in 2010. I still remember watching the news the day that happened and no one knew why. I thought to myself, short sell manipulation to the extreme?! Hackers hit the market?
But he's a case example of unseen elements, spoofing the bid ask to bait algorithms way off track. Fundamentals can be sound. I use those for the broad structure of the market: uptrend, downtrend, range- sideways. And quarterly, if not semi annual shifts. Trend lines that end up looking like spiderwebs with multiple "possibility zones." The low of this week was a big pivot for a lot of my lines for this week.
The big picture feeds the smaller picture, where watching prior support and resistance from weeks past as hard lines in the sand, last minute's resistance becoming this minute's support or the inverse. If y is crossed, but not x, maybe it'll reach z. But if x is crossed, I expect it to hit w more than I expect it to hit z. It it hits z, it's very more likely to hit w than go further above z. Planning exits before entries. Aspergers superpower I guess.
Fundamentals are great for the long term. Absolutely. They have staying power through crashes. Crashes are more geared to short term play. Yeah longs take a hit, but March 13th-15th 2021 is just a blip compared to 08, and dotcom. Longs from 1995 just blink at it and go: ok.... and?
Day trading to me is 9% preparation 1% execution and 90% temperance. Fail to plan, plan to fail. If you disregard the plan, why plan at all? It's fun, but the worst part is enduring when you're wrong and how fast one can react to changing atmosphere when they are. The perma bull-bear will always have horrible market days.
As of right now, I'm a bull at 135.49 here. The absolute bottom trendline matching Jan 2023 would signify immediate reversal. Every day that ticks by, I'm in a little higher.
To be fair, I anticipated a green Monday for spy earlier, but even I am second guessing it. The MM's did really well at hiding their open this time.
Option expiration. There's been so much negative news in 3 years, but the rate pause mirrors 1995-1999. 1 rate cut then 3 month pause. NVDA is coiling up.
I anticipate a failed breakdown on Monday before we jump up.
860s here at absolute worst. If it's below that, selling before the news will definitely shake me out.
494 on SPY will be critical.
Russian election
Fed meeting 2:30 Wednesday
Jensen speaks at market close Monday 4pm
NVDA panel at 1 Wednesday
If spy breaks 494 I will be looking for re-entry in support lines.
If this opens up with little selling, I'll ride the positions I have and look for trimming before re-entry.
We got a failed breakout and a failed breakdown here in the afternoon. So it's shaking up IV without a doubt bud.
Planning for all exit possibilities is the only thing I can suggest now.
This is just criminal, but it's algorithms.
Although we are at the bottom of the trend line, so do expect some buying in for the coming week. Just my 2 cents.
The algorithm still has peaks and valleys. The bigger the drop, the bigger the pop as they say. The resistance at 508 spoke pretty loudly and the consistency on sell vs buy volume... I'm not betting against Blackrock computer AI.
Ahhh here it was.
Just going to bumb this previous post and the one months ago where I said we'd retrace to 143 before it sees another meaningful rally.
I believe you're correct. We retrace up to 518 from here to mid Monday to retest highs and resistance. Sell volume has peaked.
Seeing 507.03 as the next support on mine. And 505 even after that. If it full stop blows through both, the bear trend has promise of starting. We've reached consolidation until the market decides if it wants to implode or continue up later though.
Transitioning from uptrend structure to range trend and the overlapping trend lines played a big part of my day today. Don't know if you do this at times too.
Short term down trend lines were a bit too bearish for me though to consider reasonable, but next week will tell.
Once I saw no hope of 511.80s, I bailed and road it back down. Definitely a good day on the charts.
Next line I have is 511.82. Fingers crossed
Doing on the hourly. This might be a reversal if it holds above 510.26
Right off of my 2nd trend line on the dot with the wick
I think we just got it. I'm switching gears if this holds.
Support is looking good at 509.80s. Gonna start spreading in
See the wedge yet? Likely the final day for it.
Back inside the wedge premarket shenanigans. Been studying the chart. We're in breakout territory.
We broke the wedge. Open should rocket up
If we break 513.13 tomorrow, we're more likely to see 508.29 than the top of the channel, 519.38 at the same point in time.
That was today. Tomorrow is another day. It's a rising channel.
Mid April is the divergence* ... a week from now, listen to me... wires crossed. Anywho we're all here to make money. Best check on analysis I can see. The highs and lows rejection points are all lining up.
We're still in the corridor that has a diverging point at 531, albeit a week from now. NVDA is on the bottom side of it's consolidation wedge, ending tomorrow with 889.79 as my best guess on the divergence for it.
If this breaks below 513.13 we've broken the trend and I'm loading puts, selling calls and buying shorts. Until then though, the bull trend is still on track.
889.79 looks like the point we're zeroing in on for EOD Friday.
If tomorrow breaks lower back into high 850s, I'll liquidate and sit sidelines for a bit, as then we'll have broken the trend and it's generally not a good sign.
We're still in the wedge. About 2 more candles to go. Full engulfing bear> rejection>inside bar bull>2inside bar bear
No breakout yet, down or up.
To extend from that. Making the less regretful choices has burned me far less than not listening to myself on this fundamental risk question.
Sure I've missed out on great profits. But I've been saved from greater losses more often.
If you're happy with the results, that is typically the time to liquidate, in my experience.
-which will you regret more?
--I sold and it goes higher
--I didn't sell and it goes lower
No one can decide this except for you.
I don't know guys. Inside bar on a pullback is normally bullish continuation or reversal from a downtrend. I have a feeling we might gap up.