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Indeed... several... and it is more probable than not that he is aware...
It's only going to get more entertaining as the underlying business developments make the bear argument increasingly difficult to sustain... jmo... glta...
The market is weighing the stock... waiting... knowing financials are near... waiting for indications of what is next... imo...
The last day to release q1 is Monday, May 16... so we are within three weeks... the company has indicated revenue will be similar to prior quarter... so more or less flat... sub-20 mil... 18 and change I suppose...
The bears would have you believe that the demise of this company is imminent which would indicate perhaps a sub-18 number if they are correct... perhaps 16 mil or something to that effect as the market catches up to the illusion that is glassware and the declining product lines continue their downward trajectory...
After Mark Twain was reported deceased he is quoted as saying "The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated."
I believe reports of S3D and glassware's demise are equally exaggerated... MSFT engineers vetted glassware early in 2015 and found its efficiencies quite remarkable...
I would encourage ANY true investors to look beneath the aggregate revenue numbers...
in q2 disk systems revenue bottomed out at 8.6 million... while tape archive and service totaled 9.8 mil... the first category is where the new technology/products reside... the second categories are the old overland leftovers...
by q4 disk systems and virtualization revenue hit 11.2 mil (an increase of 30% over q2), while tape archive/service hit 7.7 mil (a decrease of 21% under q2)...
2015 was the year of redoing the product lines... in with the new, out with the old... we see the early signs of that process embedded in the numbers... aggregate q2 was 18.4, aggregate q4 was 18.9... essentially flat... but beneath the surface... hmmmm... sometimes the aggregate hides the underlying trend... jmo... glta...
David Floyer is Wikibon’s resident CTO. Floyer spent more than twenty years at IBM holding positions in research, sales, marketing, systems analysis and running IT operations for IBM France. He directly worked with IBM’s largest European customers including BMW, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Lloyd’s Bank. Floyer was a Research Vice President at International Data Corporation (IDC) and is a recognized expert in IT strategy, economic value justification, systems architecture, performance, clustering, and systems software.
http://wikibon.com/staff-david-floyer/
http://wikibon.com/device-virtualization-in-the-cloud/
Device Virtualization in the Cloud
by David Floyer | 18 April 2016 | Blog
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Premise
Virtualizing technologies have provided solutions to making the logical server, storage and the network independent of the physical infrastructure resources that are deployed. A user or administrator can request the exact infrastructure definition required, and be assured it will map to the physical location without having to even think about it.
However, in this world of multiple devices, there is still a strong physical link between the application and the devices supported. The device support is coded into the application, and the functionality is often less than implied in the documentation. The result is a large number of applications that can only be run on a specific device. The cost of adding additional device support is high, and this type of enhancement is often low on the priorities and just doesn’t get don.
Sphere3D have introduced Glassware 2.0, a device virtualization software allowing the end user the freedom to use whatever device they desire, and application developers to provide automatic support for an application for any device without coding.
This research addresses the question “is device virtualization ready for prime-time”, and concludes with a “yes, with qualifications”.
Introduction to Device Virtualization
There are three key requirements for effective device virtualization:
1.Ensure that the end-user’s device of choice can be used to run any application;
2.Ensure that the application will be logically supported on the current hardware environment, and support any device;
3.Hybrid support in the cloud and on premise.
Glassware 2.0 provides this device virtualization for applications build on Microsoft Windows OS. On-premise support is provided by Sphere3D appliances, and cloud support is provided on Microsoft Azure.
The key benefit is that an application, once installed on Glassware, can be accessed on (say) an iPhone, and the user can use (say) a pinch motion on the iPhone or Siri to drive the application. The most common applications are the Microsoft heavy hitters such as Outlook, Word, PowerPoint, and Excel, but can include advanced applications such as CAD/CAM.
Device Virtualization on Glassware 2.0
Containerization
Glassware 2.0 can be installed and run on Microsoft Azure, or on a Sphere3D appliance. It is built on Microsoft Windows application containerization technology. It is built on top of a Windows 2008 Server kernel and core, and utilizes the common Win32.exe kernel and Ntsys.dll binaries to build the base for containerization applications.
Glassware 2.0 builds templates for desktop applications without the need for the desktop itself, bringing the needed binaries and libraries for installable Windows desktop applications. The containerized application management technology is accessed from a web UI, and uses the .exe or .msi to “install” 32 or 64 bit applications into templates containers. These containers are used to deliver sessions to users. User profiles and policies are designed per application container template and make applications into objects which can be tied and licensed appropriately.
Glassware 2.0 Protocol
The Glassware protocol is RDP derived, with a back channel used for simply clustering and connecting and to the applications which have been containerized. Native clients can utilize local resources of Siri, printers and other devices.
Devices Supported
•Windows Client
•HTML5 Access
•iOS Client
•Java Client
•Chrome Client
•Android Client
The support of specific functions in each of the device types is given in Table 1 in the footnotes.
Applications Supported
Glassware containerizes 64 bit, and 32 bit applications created on Windows 3.1 onwards, including XP, Vista and Windows 8. Any 32 or 64 bit Windows application can use the Glassware web-based installer for a .exe or .msi to install an application into a container. Applications built on other operating systems (e.g., 16-bit or 3.1 type applications) may be containerized through a Sphere 3D professional services engagement.
Microsoft Azure Cloud Support
Glassware is supported on the Azure partner marketplace. The containerization technology allows Microsoft applications to be run efficiently on the platform, and specific application resources to be shared by all the users. The virtualization approach allows a significant reduction in the cost of running application, compared to the normal virtualization of a complete user desktop.
On-premise Appliance Support
Sphere3D provide a set of appliances for Glassware for running on-premise. Details of these appliances can be found on the Sphere3D website.
Benefits of Glassware Device Virtualization
There are two main benefit areas for Glassware, performance benefits for containerization, and flexibility benefits for the end-users.
Performance Benefits
The containerization foundation of Glassware is very efficient, and the hardware can support many more users than traditional VDI virtualized machine desktop virtualization offerings from VMware(Horizon View) or Citrix (XenApp and XenDesktop ).
Flexibility Benefits
The advantages to end-users and IT of giving freedom of device choice for end-users cannot be underestimated. Users are passionate about their device, and IT departments that get in the way of choice, particularly in a “Bring your own device” (BYOD) era, can expect to suffer. Why force a kid to use a ChromeBook at home, if he has an Android phone? There is significantly increased productivity for an employee on the move to be able to just use an iPhone rather than waiting to find a WiFi source for their laptop.
Device virtualization removes IT from being involved with how end-users consume applications, and allows them to focus on providing applications. For application environments where there is effective support for device virtualization, it’s deployment should be a no-brainer IT decision.
Limitations of Glassware
Glassware runs in a Microsoft Windows environment, and only supports Windows applications. Windows 16-bit applications are supported, but require professional support from Sphere3D. Support for Linux-based applications would increase the attractiveness of Glassware.
In any VDI-like environment, there is a need to test for peak environments, such as “boot storms”. There is definitely a hardware limitation when launching applications whether browser or full applications with containers as well as anything else. The ability to burst to the Azure public cloud is potentially very important to implement, as the physical appliance can run out of resources if all users and accessing the same application at the same time.
In some circumstances, the use of devices other than those specifically qualified for use may cause potential compliance issues. There may be be specific procedures and/or workarounds required for these application types.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Glassware from Sphere3D is a pioneer in providing automatic device support for Windows applications. The implementation of Glassware on Azure makes it easy to test the technology, and Wikibon would recommend this approach as a first step to implementing device virtualization.
There is significant potential with the Glassware technology to provide a low-cost on-premise solution with better local performance and lower communication costs. The is suitable for environments with many users, such as schools or call-centers. Care needs to be taken in the management of resources for applications that are used by everybody.
Agreed. We will all know soon enough...
It really does not sound wonderful. It's a royal mess. But unfortunately it's an accurate description of what has transpired. And you are correct in pointing out that the primary issue is lack of execution in monetizing product for this more than anything has sustained the short thesis and hope. This is being remedied now. Revenue will eventually resolve this situation and end this argument. Opus Bank has looked behind the curtain and understands that revenue is coming. It's not coincidence that s3d failed to secure a lead banker until now.
you and donk are spot on... and lucor is also correct... only revs will drive the shorts out... the good news... revs are coming... early signs of the transition of the product line from the declining to the emerging are already embedded in the financial returns for 2015... this trend, which is very early, will continue to build into 2016 and 2017... the opus bank is a fabulous financial partner... msft, vmware, ericsson are excellent technology partners... Horizon 7 rolled out... Azure stack later in 2015... snap and rdx being virtualized and re-monetized... channel partner relationships are being rebuilt... jmo... glta...
This is spot on! And was made very clear in yesterday's CC. This is not your father's Overland. S3D is at the beginning of its monetization phase... jmo... glta...
2 pacific, 5 eastern
q2 and q3 it begins to get serious... you are sharp... you will know it when you see it...
before then much nonsense will be spun around the numbers... jmo... glta...
Excellent reminder of what is really going on business wise... thanks for posting...
New product line gains traction in 2016... no need to take anyone's opinion as it will be evident in revenues moving forward... I will be watching q2 and q3 especially... in the last CC the company told us which category to watch for growth... jmo... glta...
This is correct... most of 2015 revs are not glassware...
You will be reaching for your check book 2nd/3rd quarter is my prediction... jmo... glta...
"I truly believe their product has major benefits, but there's a large gap between us DIY and having to call their professional services team as it stands. If we can do it quickly in house it's much preferred to relying on vendors.
There are some applications that would be "nice" to virtualize immediately, but VDI and local installs does the job for now, so why bother? If we could do it easily ourselves that would be awesome, but that's not going to happen as it is now. We are much more likely to wait rather than jump onboard an immature technology.
The big clients who have a dire need for this will be the first movers, the smaller players <50 installs will have to come later, TCO isn't that high for them anyways... for 100's or 1000's, that's a different story."
I actually agree with this portion of your post...
"That's an old link - I wouldn't consider this page as proof that MSFT Engineers have "vetted the product" or its fitness for a particular purpose."
This link is not my "proof" that glassware was vetted by MSFT.
The link is dated, but remains descriptive and accurate.
"Yes, it works enough for it not to be called a complete scam and it doesn't crash Azure."
Amusing phraseology... not insightful... just amazing... imo...
"Either way, I'm not convinced that their version of Glassware on Azure will have a lot of traction yet. Though there is definitely a huge need for the services they claim to be able to provide."
Yes... there is a huge need... and traction has already begun...
If you have questions regarding your own tests... not unusual at all... I suggest you contact the company directly rather than depend on a message board for your info... best of luck to you...
2015 was a year of profound business development for S3D... and an abysmal year for the stock as revenues declined with a transition in the product line... out with the old... preparing for the new... I have low expectations for q4'15 report and 2015 aggregate will be underwhelming to be sure... a necessary year for the business albeit painful year for the shareholders... my focus is on q2'16 as the new year, now nearly a quarter in, is off to a fine start... jmo... glta...
Wishing all a happy, safe and blessed holiday weekend!!!
Excellent post!
Microsoft engineers vetted glassware and then very publicly named it part of the next cloud. There's your technical review.
Yes. Much more pleasant that way... imo... s3d is rebuilding long neglected and deteriorated channel partner relationships and certifying them to handle the influx that will come with Horizon 7... this rebuild of channels was discussed in q3 cc... it is well underway... imo... 2016 looking to be an interesting year...
Welcome. We are not all paranoid.
These are partnerships. S3d has products that enhance their partners cloud offerings and solves significant customer compatibility and efficiency issues. S3d will be reselling partner products through a channel partnership network that is being rebuilt. Msft and vmware will be reselling s3d solutions to their customers as well... the name of the game in the cloud computing battle is market share which is gained be efficiently solving customer problems... s3d will enhance Horizon 7 (vmware) and Azure stack (msft)... both partners are making a play for the growing hybrid cloud market... s3d is well positioned to help them... jmo... glta...
Excellent post. Have to agree with you ANY will succeed or fail separate from what happens in these forums. We all have our own knowledge base which informs our disparate opinions. Your suggestion regarding pleasant walks while we await our s3d fate is excellent. I predict that by late summer longs will be feeling much better... jmo... glta...
There are so many false assumptions in this post I don't even know where to begin. Clearly our perceptions and perspectives are world's apart. I am quite confident in what I know and you appear to be from your perspective as well. Time will be the ultimate arbiter.... jmo... glta...
That's your example of people going "beserk" on social media? Remarkable. I do appreciate your response to that question. Helps me understand the perspective from which you post. Thank you. Best of luck to you.
You are correct. If ANY is selling vaporware and headed to BK by eoy, then there would be little point in this daily thrashing of the proverbial dead horse. They beat it because it is a trojan horse in one sense or perhaps a better analogy a phoenix...
I agree with your assessment...
SB has been busy...
I am a long horizon investor who focuses on the development of the underlying business and the value that accrues from that process... value is not always immediately recognized by the market especially in pre-monetizing and early monetizing phases of a company's product development... the company's line of cloud computing products was completed in 2015 and is being monetized in 2016... imo...
here is my own assessment regarding S3D's brief history as a publicly traded company...
When S3D went public in 2012 the plan was very different... I don't think the company fully realized what it had... the goals, objectives, timeframes were all compressed relative to where S3D is today... over time the company has realized the role that glassware can play in the new computing paradigm and the company has adjusted its plans accordingly...
2013 was a year of discovery during which management began to understand the full implications of its intellectual property...
2014 was a year of mergers and acquisitions as 4 companies were rolled into 1... merging one company into one is complicated and time consuming... merging 4 in a time span of a year is actually quite an accomplishment...
2015 was a year of modifying the product line... culling the old and outdated... developing the new... completing the platform... this is essential work akin to building the foundation... it doesn't show immediate results, but the building collapses if you don't take the time to build it correctly...
From a business perspective it is not the least bit surprising to see revenues fall during a transitional phase such as this... while some want you to believe the decline will continue... it will not...
2016 is a year for bringing on the early adopters of s3d technology... it is already going well... adopters are arriving now and jumping on board... eventually this will be reflected in revenues... and further down the road the early adopters will carry s3d across the chasm as adoption of the technology becomes main stream...
Revenue in 2016 will stabilize and then begin to climb... revenue will come through partnerships (such as msft and vmaware) and the re-invigorating the old channel partners one-by-one as is already occurring... while revenue growth will be modest enough early... it will continue to build and accelerate...
2017 will be the year the chasm is crossed imo... and s3d becomes a significant player in the brave new world of cloud computing... revenues are likely to explode in 2017... jmo... glta...
Agreed... not expecting much from q4'15... I am personally looking towards q2'16 to see what it tells me regarding revenue traction and trend...
"long thesis is based on WHAT THE COMPANY SAYS"
I will not speak for other longs, but for me the statement you made, and which is quoted above, is utterly false...
My long thesis is built on careful observation of 3rd party entities which have vetted glassware... and their responses to that experience...
Management has actually done a poor job... imo... of promoting what they have... it's actually the opposite of what I would expect with a "pump and dump" scheme...
Management has actually done a good job... imo... of putting their ip in front of some key players and developing quality partner relationships... once again the opposite of what I would expect from a company that is in possession of "vaporware"... jmo... glta...
Excellent... thanks for posting... this continues to be the phase of early adopters... they will carry s3d across the chasm...
"In his book Crossing the Chasm, Geoffrey Moore proposes a variation of the original lifecycle. He suggests that for discontinuous or disruptive innovations, there is a gap or chasm between the first two adopter groups (innovators/early adopters), and the early majority."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_life_cycle
No. Not wearing on me. Long term investment. Underlying business developing fine. Revenue will follow. See today's news release. Personally I'm looking to q2'16 as potentially instructive...
I have never, ever said s3d code was licensed to anyone. Perhaps you have me mixed up with someone else. Maybe one of those "touts" you speak of?
Shorts have been exiting for weeks now... speaks louder than their rhetoric... imo... glta...
So regarding sales and msft/vmware partnerships... these are partnerships... benefits/sales will flow in both directions... that is s3d will help sell msft/vmware solutions and msft/vmware will help sell s3d solutions... all parties will behave in a self-interested manner... the game of the day is market share... the path to market share is providing customers with solutions... Msft, Vmware and S3D will each utilize their own solutions in seeking market share, but will also incorporate partner solutions when that helps win or keep a customer...
finally, I have said for a long time that glassware has a Basf quality to it... I am more convinced than ever that this is so... Basf... "we don't make a lot of the products you use, we make a lot of the products you use better"... this is a pretty good description of glassware... the company recently used the example that we make the "oil", not the engine... I like that one too... everyone has an opinion or several... these are mine... best of luck to all...
I've answered the "sales" issue, frankly a made up issue, many times. Shorts either ignore or disparage my answer and the raise the same question over and over ad nauseum... I get they don't like my answer... I'm ok with that... an answer is coming that will be more difficult to refute... it is coming in the form of revenue... it will take a bit longer before the "ludicrous" becomes "obvious"... as with all paradigm shifts the new paradigm is decried as ludicrous until it becomes obvious that it is not... jmo... glta...
I've answered the "sales" issue, frankly a made up issue, many times. Shorts either ignore or disparage my answer and the raise the same question over and over ad nauseum... I get they don't like my answer... I'm ok with that... an answer is coming that will be more difficult to refute... it is coming in the form of revenue... it will take a bit longer before the "ludicrous" becomes "obvious"... as with all paradigm shifts the new paradigm is decried as ludicrous until it becomes obvious that it is not... jmo... glta...
Just a couple of weeks ago an IT author extolling the virtues of containerization stated we are at "peak confusion" regarding containerization right now...
Some on this board are either among the confused or using that confusion... imo...
Both Msft and Vmware are on record multiple times regarding the efficacy of s3d technology... and I stand by the statement that each have vetted that technology before partnering w/s3d... they would be fools not to... and fools they are not....
This is the phase of early adopters coming on board... a tipping point is coming... jmo... glta...