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First cars in market with Ivy in 2023 or 2024 - don't know what that means for revenue.
Did like the early on comment about building a connected platform that can work beyond cars...that was interesting. I can see a combo of something like this with endpoint security to not only secure but also monitor activity at various endpoints.
Think its honestly a huge play, but may be years before the bottom line sees those results.
Still long :)
This is honestly why I love this industry right now - complex as hell and changing constantly!
The legalization I totally agree will bring on a whole other set of challenges. One of my favorite shows, even though it is staged, is moonshiners.
You'll see me compare cannabis to liquor all the time - because I still fundamentally believe unless you want flower, the rest of the industry is exactly like booze (especially once legal to grow your own).
I'm an avid homebrewer - I make a ton of beer and am actually saving to open a taproom only brewery in my neck of the woods. A few inputs, a lot of focus on process, and high quality output as a derivative of what you started with. Commercialize that and you have Inbev/MillerCoors, it will be the same in this industry. You will have growers focused on perfecting that (like those who grow the barley and even those who malt it), and you'll have derivative mfgs (Valens, maybe Medi, etc...). In this world, Valens is equivalent in FUNCTION to InBev, i'm not saying they'll ever get anywhere near that big. Eventually, I think we'll see Valens start purchasing their customers, but that's years down the road.
You'll have people growing their own (for flower and edibles), you'll have a thriving black market, and you'll have a thriving legal market. Like vitamins - there are people willing to buy the $3 bottle of Amazon from JoeSchmo Vitamin company. You also have those that only want independent lab certified quality. You'll have lawsuits and bad things happening with those JoeSchmo companies just like we see in performance enhancing substance companies today.
There will be demand for it all, and the only supply going into the high-quality products will be controlled grows from regulated businesses.
GE_Jim - love the conversation. This is how we all get exposed to more perspectives.
GLTA
We've hit 50% of total shares outstanding today - and there was already 51% institutional ownership before this flurry.
That math is crazy. It also means we have one of the most solid bases of support you can ask for >30% higher than the close yesterday!
Very fair perspective. I personally think "this time it's different" in the US - that is NOT me saying that I think it passes the Senate, but it is me saying I think it becomes a real discussion point for them and maybe lopped into another bill somewhere. I think it'll be more to ease the prisons than anything else.
Only time will tell on that front, but glad I'm in this stock for reasons other than currently unknown opportunity in the U.S. Any US dealing will just sweeten.
New intraday highs as we approach 30% of total shares outstanding traded today.
Great feeling to know that two full weeks of volume in this stock were purchased ABOVE current levels :) Set up for a nice long sustained run. News chasers got in today, the folks that do their research (smart money) will come in next, trickling in over the next few weeks with sustained higher than normal volume.
Hopefully the next earnings report shows good sales growth - for many eyes it will be the first time they see it, so a good sales increase number will look better to those who haven't been waiting for this turnaround.
This just makes BB worth that much more at buyout time! :)
i'm curious to see how my LEAPS @ $5 for Jan22 will be looking in 6 months :)
Really is a GREAT feeling. Only need one or two of these at the right time to be life changing events. YEARS coming off the retirement timeline and all it took was a little patience. This is why LONG investors always prevail.
Why?!? Robinhood pump will only mean bad things down the road. Let the institutionals run this up so it can be sustained until a buyout offer!
The world now knows Blackberry is NOT a phone company anymore. Here begins the tripling :)
Welp, so much for pushing past it! :) However, we did see over 100k of shares trade in Canada in the last 10 minutes finishing well above average volume on both exchanges!
Come on news!!!
So when the momentum picked up today, we magically picked up about 165k shares sitting on the ask at the high of the day - $1.55. We knew this was going to be a huge resistance point....
...short of calling it, I think before we close today we'll push past this number, I think the institutional buying in Canada may hold a big punch until the end of the day and smack down the huge asks.
I'll probably be wrong, but it's been an odd day of trading, started out strong and then volume just came to a crawl. Partially wonder if they may be throttling it so it doesn't go too high before another big block of buys.
Very very strong action right now. We're chomping through the $1.55 mark on a sell order that's been there for weeks. Pretty thin after that. Many of the big buys in Canada are coming from the investment banks now, as well the companies covering Valens.
A close over $1.55 would be begging for a new deal announcement or indication of big revenue for the quarter for a monster run - it would be the ideal setup for technicals and fundamentals. Canada and US charts looking fantastic.
resistance points - $1.50, $1.55 (big one), then not until $1.77
the combined exchanges for Valens are @ 35% of their average daily volume already - not even 30 minutes in.
Lots of new investment banks on the buy side in Canada and seem to be buying the highs
Good morning all and hope everyone had a happy and safe Thanksgiving!
Something tells me it may be an interesting week.
<~~~ Equally curious!!
Huge day today on the TSX - we'll see what looks like a huge gap up on Monday most likely even though it won't really be. With US closing early and TSX trading until normal hours today, they pushed up over a half a million in volume (this is high lately, adding to the number of days where average volume keeps growing) with some very interesting buying patterns and had an almost 10% day - with new players on the buy side. USD/CAD exchange rates should put US share price at $1.45/share.
Would love 5pm news, but not counting on it.
Have a great weekend everyone, hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and stay safe this weekend. Cheers!
Chart is set up for a huge run with the right catalyst - decent news or better yet an earnings surprise with sales to revenue conversion driving growth that we've been waiting for
Hopefully their next choice for a board member comes connected to the CPG space
Well said hiroller and the only solence I can provide to those waiting is this...remember, you all discovered this very early. This company's real opportunities didn't begin until the 2.0 rollout which means we've had about 1 year of data. Not a lot.
Also remember, while they have accomplished a ton in our eyes, they've not really accomplished anything market worthy, yet. Look guys, a $100M/yr company is small potatoes.
IF they execute their plan, we will all be happy, but short of an international CPG brand partnership announcement, patience is paramount.
Q1 21 is our first indicator as it will be the first full quarter with significantly more capacity. The proof will be in the pudding in terms of supply vs. demand.
Q3 21 (est) is our 2nd indicator as it's the first estimated full quarter of K2 and Pommies.
If you are not in a proven market, and your market has been battered, many traditional investors will stay away. "Promise" still means nothing until its tangible.
Early days can be frustrating, but early days can be kind to those who are patient and do their homework. I'm not promising this will explode, but the right moves are being made right now unless management is fooling us.
I write these posts and I do the research because I have a lot invested here, and I would feel like an idiot if I didn't feel like I knew this company the best any individual investor can.
happy thanksgiving, stay safe, and glta! Cheers
I listened to the presentation for a 3rd and final time because I'm trying to figure out if there is anything else at play we're missing..
In no less than 7 counted occasions, they indicate more than just extraction for the LPs. On one of those occasions, they indicate they are speaking with LPs about doing more because Valens can do it cheaper and better.
I love the unlicensed deal announcements, but it will be interesting to see if we start to see LP revenue start increasing, even with extraction numbers way down.
Nice little finish, and it was on volume in Canada! In the last 5 seconds they put off 10% of their volume and hopped 5 cents. Our little buy at the end was just leveling the market up to mothership.
Would love a new deal announcement at 5pm!
From the call, not getting a lot of attention, but I think are primary growth drivers:
1. Everett talks about 2.0 products taking up market share from flower/prerolls and shows US category market share vs. Canada - notice that most of the shift would be TOWARDS Valens products, not away from. This means we get 2 growth drivers in 1: 1) The rapid growth of the overall Cannabis market in canada, and 2) The rapid shift of that growing usage from Flower to 2.0 products. This is huge - this is FREE GROWTH when you have deals. Can't underestimate this.
2. The stats on Women I somehow missed - but women being twice as likely to use non-Flower products than men is also huge when you take the no less than 5 hints that "health and wellness" will be the primary growth driver - this is a tough space, brand is EVERYTHING. The ONLY way to break in here is with a big partner - and I actually think outside of beverages this is where we may have a very large CPG in line. Maybe even the one that gets us to the U.S. - remember 3 of the 4 speakers mentioned H&W growth AND U.S at the same time - something going on here
3. EBITDA growth driver - Everett's commentary around price compression and their cost of materials. He specifically says "this is a huge tailwind for us on profits in the quarters to come". This IS big IMO especially as we've seen the costs go north recently on other expenses as they scale for K2 and Pommies.
4. Go to 27:23 and listen until 28:55. Everett hints at something, and none of us have any idea how to quantify it, it could be small, it could be absolutely huge as well. "As we've been having conversations with future customers, more and more of these customers are saying wow, you guys can do this for lower cost than we can. And these previous LP models where they wanted to do everything, and new management comes in and they have a focus on actual efficiencies and driving revenue and EBITDA. We're having better and better conversations where they are looking at our low cost platform" I think he's hinting at a very good chance that maybe some of the LPs get out of the business of manufacturing their own 2.0 products and will just outsource it to the likes of a Valens. It's huge, insanely huge, if they start producing those products that go into the market with a name like Canopy, or Tilray, or Aphria. Not saying its happening - but I'm starting to read it that way :)
Nothing new for you guys, but I remembered something said and so went back for a listen to the early part again :)
Very healthy consolidation right now on TSX side
Slow, methodical, little over an hour into the trade day and volume already half way to average day. This is actually how I prefer to see it - means we don't have that ugly gap @marathon!!
I've been poking around to hear other chatter and sounds like the L2s on TSX are starting to see activity from parties that have not been seen in this stock to date, looks like primarily Goldmann on the transactions, buying at the highs on the TSX.
Break that $1.50-$1.55 range and this thing could really go on the slightest of catalysts.
Good morning all. Know we're all hoping for a massive day here! I went back and did some research on other big news events to see what the impact on stock price is, and to be frank, it is ALL OVER THE BOARD.
As such, I have no basis for understanding what will happen today. We could hit 20% gains at one point and then lose them all to finish up $.03, we could go backwards, we may not move...I have no bloody idea.
But - still loving the progress :) This should mean Q1 rev numbers advance/grow very rapidly.
I can almost guarantee that they knew about their approval back when the big insider buys happened. HERE...WE...GO
KKKK2222222222!!!!!
Something....at....play!
All I'm not sure what's going on here but there is something odd. I've been watching the L2s on both the US and Canadian border, and both the overall trade volume, AND the block sizes (and shifts) on the L2s are through the roof compared to history.
It's rare that we blow volume out of the water like this on no news both in Canada and in the US. OK I lied - it's not rare - it hasn't happened with this stock since my initial investment several months back.
I also learned that a lot of the Canadian big buy blocks are Cormark - just look up Cormark in Canada to see who that is. Just another confidence builder in my opinion...
That's a gap that technical traders MUST fill? $.01 .7% I understand we fill gaps but if technical traders are that concerned then I'm done with this game lol
LOL Marathon - The 'gap' is $.01. On 11/5, we closed at $1.28. On 11/6, we there were trades at $1.29.
What 'gap' are you referring to?
I'm probably one of the biggest bulls here and still am - but I'm getting tired of watching MMs walk us down. They were doing the reverse for the last couple weeks and now today it's clear and obvious.
What's interesting is they did opt to push back up for a few weeks - so I think they're trying to hold it in this range. They'll make a lot more money on news if the stock is undervalued than if it's trading closer to true valuation - so it's possible they are expecting movement as well.
P.S. I hate when investors, on non-news, non-volume days, put in market orders. It's the sole reason we can see stupid price swings on like $5,000 of trades. Insanity. USE LIMIT ORDERS, PROTECT YOURSELF
CORP Strategy - Investor Deck and Presentation!
Link to the Q4/November Investor Day presentation - great way to learn all of the things the company currently has going on and to glean some insight into the way they are thinking about the future. This was really well done and I'm impressed with the steadfast confidence of the team.
https://thevalenscompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/VLNS-Analyst-Investor-Day_-November-19-2020.pdf
And here is the link to the audio - comes with TONS of nice little one liners you can't glean from the doc.
View here:
https://bit.ly/3kNWhDe
Insomniacs post - PS Ratio What-If's
So my assumptions are based on treating Valens as a CPG company for the purpose of this hypothetical exercise. The average PS Ratio for CPGs is about 2.81, Valens is around 2.35.
If we were looking at PS Ratios alone, Valens at industry average PS Ratio would put stock price right about $2.01-$2.02. That is the average - and at their current ratio they are right there with some of the big guys.
So, on PE alone, we could actually say the stock price is in realistic range of price for that segment. On the low side for sure, but still realistic.
Now if we assume average CPG PS ratio, but our sales increase to $140M annually (2021 target from November investor deck (and I think low)), the share price should be somewhere around $3.13-$3.14.
Just for S's and G's, @ average PS Ratio:
Rev Theoretical Share Price
$200M $4.48
$250M $5.60
Obviously all that assumes no material change in number of shares outstanding.
So that was fun and it at least gives me one indicator to use when turning an analyst revenue estimate into share price based on average CPG PS Ratio.
Now the test, if you read down this far, do you want me to keep doing these?
Link to the Q4/November Investor Day presentation - great way to learn all of the things the company currently has going on and to glean some insight into the way they are thinking about the future. This was really well done and I'm impressed with the steadfast confidence of the team.
https://thevalenscompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/VLNS-Analyst-Investor-Day_-November-19-2020.pdf
Mexico looks go be moving towards legalization, should be a good day tomorrow! Mexico high on Valens list.
Very capable! I think we are all early days of something special here. With the pivot, would love to see some additions to leadership that have marketing and CPG experience. I like the existing team but some good GTM experience would help!
Guys TONS of amazing stuff in the Q&A too - basically I'm just a lot more bullish now. I think at least I was missing where the growth was going to come from. We were all just hoping for deals (which they apparently have but can't announce publicly yet) - but they were right when they said the growth of those products as the market expands is important. They're close to that market share on some of their products in some markets, which is crazy.
I did want to clarify 2 things from my previous:
1. The 65 SKUs in Q3 and the 185 in this presentation had something to do with across canada vs provinces, I honestly don't understand what it means. All I know is it seems it was apples and oranges so ignore my commentary on that.
2. There was tons of talk about US, its complicated because it sounds like they have a plan and may be in talks but don't really want to say anything. Not sure on this either.
That's it, I'm bullish, and I'm done for the day. GLTA!