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When it’s up over 250%+ in 3 years a dividend of 1-3% doesn’t matter.
This is why I say that TPL is an excellent hedge for someone’s fixed income portfolio that does pay a fixed coupon that can be inflated away.
I switched my thinking with TPL early on after selling it before the fall at the end oct 2016. I feel that the asset is so undervalued that it doesn’t make sense to trade it.
Just buy more on dips.
It’s more of a forecast of a 1000 based on earnings growth.
What happened was that the earnings did get to 20.00 and past it. But the PE fell from 55+ to 15.
The reason to forecast 6000.00 or 60 billion mkt cap is bc of QE and inflation coming with the dollar falling in the near future. That means a spike in oil.
Investors with fixed income allocation are at risk for inflation eating away at low rates, TPL is then a way to hedge that inflation risk with land, oil, and location.
Here comes the 1000 dollar a share price I’ve been predicting for 3 years. I had Nov of 2019 as date for 1000.00. Didn’t anticipate the drama over the reorg. But, if the stock splits with a dividend increase, thus more institutions, anything below 1000.00 pre split will seem like a bargain.
Remember what is driving the blue chips higher?
Passive investing if etfs and funds.
My gut says we will be doing math for the next 10 years back to this reorg date when the value of TPL will be 50 billion from 5 starting in 2020.
What difference does it make how long it takes to 50 billion. The chance of it getting there is high for a 10 bagger risk.
With more volume we may even get options for TPL at a later date.
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No. I’m not happy with 19.50. I’ve been with this group since Eastbridge.
I’m not so sure everything is a go with Allijon. Which may be the poker tell.
Still a ways off with the Car-t and Immunology for investors and trades. 5 years back when it popped it was bc of another Biotech was bought out traders thought cbmg may be next and Cbmg joined the Nasdaq.
I wonder if Cbmg could be the bridge for other Biotech JV’s in the U.S to get access to China? Sort of like the eastbridge model?
I think they just want to make sure everything is lined up before making public statements.
This quiet period of buybacks could be so they can start a normal dividend payout program.
If Jan1st comes and goes with nothing, then I’ll start to get impatient.
Is there a name yet for the IR? There’s a poker tell right there if one was hired.
As a poker player myself, I think all of this is going to come out at once and then it all becomes clear.
When an entity has an asset base/business that is growing and throwing free cash flow, then it becomes the ability to allocate IRR of that cash. Ie Brka and it’s insurance business. Lots of ways to turn.
Why not have it be a public, private equity inflation hedge model?
Land, metals, real estate, timber, oil & gas royalty public and private.
When the 10-1 split happens it will go right to 100 or 1000, and then when the funds, etfs, and div plus options avail. and investors get in it goes to 200.00 and then ultimately back to 1000 for a 50 billion valuation.
I have no inside knowledge, just the past 3 1/2 years and what my instincts are screaming out to me.
All of your questions are good ones.
I think this will all change starting Jan 1st of 2020.
Conference call shld be announced the last week of Dec.
Conference call will be then to go over all of the new info on the C-Corp, stock split, new dividend policy and buy backs and future model for the company.
New dividend will attack more investors plus TPL will be included in more funds and indexes.
Yes, more expenses, etc etc, but I think it won’t matter when the market cap goes from 5 to 50 billion within x time.
These well known stocks that keep going up is bc of all the passive rtfs and indexes they’re in. Yes it’s a bubble but.......
Sounds like a good opportunity for royalty deals for a company with little debt, free cash flow, expertise and in the Permian?
Hmmm? ?????
The Fed is increasing its balance sheet again but isn’t calling it QE.
But the result will be the same. Inflation.
If investors have fixed income they need to hedge that fixed payment vs inflation wiping it out. Sand is a good way to hedge that risk.
Being owed gold into the future at a fixed price while other prices are rising is exactly the hedge Americans want to have.
Sand has no debt as well.
All variables are tools (how many and what tools is what makes this a competitive challenge) to connect enough dots to feel good enough to take the risk.
Technology has changed. The movement of stock prices based on Etf’s, mutual funds, computer trading has created contrarian opportunities for individual investors.
I actually like to chart fundamentals. ?????????
Selling Puts on Sand?
This is an interesting topic bc of the low price of Sand vs the other stocks that are low priced but have a chance of going out of business.
The chance of Sand going out of business is extremely low.
And worst case if you get put shares at a higher price, those of us who understand what’s going on with the U.S and debt monetization don’t mind holding shares higher than 6.00.
You have point.
Bc while many managers try to duplicate Berkshire Hathaway’s business model of an insurance company and investing the “float” into other investments, it’s bc of two people (Warren Buffet allocating the float and his insurance underwriter) both are the best at what they do.
Like Bellicheck and Brady.
Looking at a business model and who are their customers and can those customers withstand a downturn?
Diversifying with the core being the income from the land of oil and gas,
Into the cash flow of steaming (nickel) gold etc would be like Buffet says “keep laying the golden eggs from another golden goose”.
I’m not mismatching you. If the right people arnt on the right bus then it won’t work. However,
My vision for TPL with the new model is that more institutional investors we come in board, mutual funds, ETF’s, pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and dividend yield investors,
This new demand with the right allocation of resources and model will take TPL from 6 to 60 billion.
A 10x winner is never obvious or the upside wouldn’t be there, but that’s what makes this very different. I believe the probability of a 10x winner is very high for TPL.
It should concern you and investors.
But that’s why some investors are waiting.
But that gives a chance to get in at a better price. We do need to back out the land sale to get a truer current PE vs before but the PE is still low.
On the positive side to the old and new business models, while the old model got the market cap to 5-6 billion, the new C-Corp model could get the cap from 6 to 60 billion a 10 bagger while yes others make money in the company but who cares if you make 10x?
If my Italian friends would have founded McDonalds, there would have only been one of them on the corner.
In the end game the investor with the most units or shares wins. Always buy and never sell.
Why?
Bc the asset is worth so much more than the current value/market cap of TPL. It’s a black box nobody can value.
Wait until it’s spits 10-1 and it’s 70 a share for new investors and funds to buy buy buy!
I think right now what’s holding down the price is uncertainty, but the asset is the same now at a PE of 17 as it was last year when the PE was 40-50 and a high of over 60. Lack of buying by TPL while in the black out period.
If interest rates come down the dollar shld also fall which means higher oil price.
If the new entity has more of a div yield will bring in new yield investors as well as if the price splits it will bring in more retail investors.
Also new entity will be included in more mutual and index funds creating more demand.
We all know about the water opportunity.
Plus other revenue streams that may surface bc of the new business model.
Lastly the Fed may lose control of inflation, which TPL is a terrific hedge vs allocation to fixed income.
I’d like to see them start investing in streaming royalties for mining nickel. The price is starting to trend higher over 8.00. That would be a hedge for the electric car in the future and less oil.
However oil demand is still rising every year to around 100 million barrels a day and climbing 1 million more per day per year.
I would think the longer we go with nothing, the more it’s going to come all at once. C Corp, Stock split, Div increase yield, but backs. After stock split equivalent to over 1000.
When do we think the new release will be out regarding the new corporate structure and vision?
TPL. Good times are coming.
This asset has not changed that they are sitting on. PE around 16.
New reorganization. Stock split coming. Interest rates falling and QE coming that will increase inflation and oil price.
I’ll predict that 630.00 is the low. After reorganization and TPL buying I’m looking for 1000.00 a sure. ??
We have posted before about the opportunity to take TPL from 6b to 60b mkt cap for investors.
It could be like Buffets burkshire hathaway. The asset base that keeps laying golden eggs.
It depends on who is allocating the resources.
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I believe further rate cuts are coming.
Probably back to zero.
If this trend continues then oil and gold will be trending higher.
That will be wind at the back of TPL.
It’s always been about the value of the asset (black box) which is hard to value but my opinion is, it’s worth a lot more.
Good insight with the C-Corp and the trustee positions.
You would think hey would try and get everything converted by Jan 1st 2020. I would assume a stock split and larger Div with that Announcement that would create liquidity and more interest from Div investors along with my vision of inflation protection for investors.
N-Gas has a good day yesterday. Another possible wind at TPL’s back.
Sure.
My target price is based on the short term from the past trading without the drama of 1200.00.
It’s always been the case with TPL of trying to value the black box.
Lots of developments with the election. If the Dems win then the Corp tax rate will probably go back up but the debt will explode thus the dollar would fall, oil higher and inflation higher.
TPL’s asset plus the national debt and dollar falling issue with the fed not having a way to stop inflation gives the black box of TPL’s asset even more gasoline to pure on it.
I believe this time period will be the before and after.
If investors have fixed income in their portfolio, TPL is a inflation hedge stock to cover your bonds in case of inflation eroding your purchasing power of your yield on bonds.
Wait until Trump puts a sledgehammer to Iran. Oil ??
TPL is setting up with a big jump higher.
Once the uncertainty with the drama is done and the issues are clearer, along with higher inflation bc of he fed and lowering rates along with the tensions with Iran, and water growth, my price target in the short term is 1200.00 once the cloud is lifted.
The Young and the Restless.
I figured HK it would end up an all 3
or nothing with the trustees.
There’s no free lunch.
However it was the right time and place with different unique variables in place that TPL was able to increase in stock price, keep buying back shares, share price kept rising with very low volume that TPL’s buys were moving the stock up. In the last 3 yrs.
Losing money has its own emotion but having billions in front of you that you can’t get to “may” make people do crazy things. ?????
Think of it as an opportunity for it to act like a Berkshire Hathaway, it’s just that the royalty doesn’t have to be paid back as the insurance premium may.
It’s all about whether the allocators of these resources of royalties can allocate so the Goose keeps laying golden eggs.
New lines in the script for the Young and the Restless?
I think it seems like a good thing. News lines.
If this all happens I’d look for a stock split as well. At least 10-1.
To me it’s always been how to get this company from 6 billion to 60 billion mkt cap.
I think this C-corp and probably reg higher div will get us on that people mover to 60b.
My thinking is that we could have 3 new trustees (allocators of capital experience) if Horizons and Oliver get in.
I can’t imagine Oliver getting in and working with the 2 current trustees.
While not a perfect analogy.
We have heard of a startup into a big IPO etc when the founder is replaced by an experienced operator for the next leg of growth.
The chart is not of operating decisions but rather of oil price and royalties. If allocation of new profits is the next leg up for TPL from 6 billion to 60 billion mkt cap, what team do we want to make those decisions?
Even though I don’t know them personally, compared to other companies leaders, they really serve no special purpose.
Other than allocation of expanding resources for the future.
This is a good analogy for Free Mkt Capitalism in general when Americans have more savings/profits left over (dollars/shares) to “vote” on products and services that deliver value.
When politicians want to interfere or tax Americans more so that decisions with our savings/shares are decided not by those who earned the money or have shares but by political means.
YouTube video. Hmmm.
What I used to say was the unique ingredients of TPL is now turning into the drama.
I’m stating what everyone already knows about this but when you have a low volume stock not covered by Wall Street and is accumulated by a PE firm (Horizon) to become a large shareholder with trustees who don’t have skin in the game and then hit paydirt with big oil. Emotions....
I’m not sure if we will see the choice of Eric Oliver or Cook. It’s going to be 3 new trustees.
I’m now of the opinion shareholders win. End of story.
We need to verity the Capital structure of Lexaria.
Debt, # of shares, mkt cap, etc.
That usually tells the back story to the current price.
To me the analogy to use is the money Buffet gets as a “float” to invest bc of his insurance companies.
The “float” is the royalty coming to TPL. Now how to allocate that major increase in royalty to take TPL from 6 billion to 60 billion?
Obviously a higher stock price makes a better case for their guy.
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Absolutely.
Price target with earnings growth and historic PE. Min 1200.00. 50% undervalues.
With oil and the mkt trending higher.
I’m looking to reengage this post for Nickel Creek to get more comments. The company just put out a new sales deck.
My analogy with this company is like a script for a movie that a screenwriter is trying to get a major studio to buy.
Is his a chicken and an egg with Nickel prices not going up until the large demand for EV?
I wonder what the price of Nickel has to go to to make this more attractive to get funding?
I’m surprised the price of the stock isn’t in the middle of the last year instead of dead at the bottom?
How much money does his company need to get started?
Thanks for the opinions.
Buy the rumor sell the news?
Gdp surprise moved money from
Oil to Precious metals for now.
Those of you who understand TPL may also be interested in a stock that has “similar” ingredients of TPL before TPL took off. Another inflation hedge.
Sand (Sandstorm Gold).
See if you agree?
TPL’s water business is projected to add 6.00-7.00 to earnings in 2019 more than TPL earned in just April of 2017 of 5.64 (4 quarters) before the water business.
Two variables that hasn’t trended in TPL’s favor yet?
1. A falling dollar thus rising oil to 100.00 a barrel.
2. Increase in Nat Gas Prices.
3. Pipeline capacity.
My forecast is for 100.00 in earnings by 2022. X 30-40pe?
Projected earnings for 2019 with oil trending at 65.00 or higher?
50.00.
How will the drama unfold with the trustee’s and how will the Pres election affect TPL in the future.
My opinion is that TPL is one of he best inflation hedges in the market today.