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looks like a major selling climax today,will cover my short by the end of the day,and even buy some stock.
Was looking at the sentiment numbers. What jumps out is both the lack of enthusiasm among the AAII investor numbers, although they are finally more bullish than bearish. It shows too much pessimism among a sophisticated group of investors, and that is bullish.'
the other number that stands out is the extremely high high numbers of options players betting on the vix to decline soon. they are usually wrong, but the vix is very elevated, which is normal after a bear market.
I would say the sentiment numbers indicate any surprise and the market falls hard and fast. A win for trump could upset the apple cart, IMHO. Same for a landslide victory for biden and the dems.
I have a strong feeling we see spx 3200 in the next couple weeks, and so shorted a bit of spy near the close today. Am long a few stocks am holding for the long term, and short about double the spy value of those stocks.
I dont see a huge downside risk until next spring. I expect a large rally into next spring after then next 5% correction.
Enjoy the weekend, will read all the other posts when I get a chance this weekend.
Think we rally into election, then sell off, just IMHO
Put 10% of my money into AGI at 8.30, am also long xom, nvda, adi, and amd.
Looks like 3400 will be tested next week. I expect the market is expecting Biden and dems to sweep election and pass a massive stimulus bill early next year. So why worry about a short downturn in the economy until then? The fed will keep pumping until then.
We may bet a more nast correction here, so waiting until a real selling climax day before buying anything.
IN over 35 years of watching the markets, can say buy signals are much easier to spot than sell signals. So will focus on when to buy, instead of when to short. Only will short when is obvious market is very overbought, like it was on the buying climax monday.
Spent 3 months in Sumatra studying Orangutans, but never made it to Java or Bali.
I was lucky to spend 6 months in India in 1990. When i went back the last time in 2005, was unbelievable how much the big cities has changed.
I also spent the summer of 1979 to 1982 in Alaska, living in a cabin in a remote spectacular valley, but never have been back. would be too sad.
When I bought a home where i live in wine country, the county had 130,000 people back in 1985. Now it has over 500,000 people. Sucks. I hate that apple processing plants in Washington bought all the apple processing plants in my area in 2000, and then shut them all down. So the apple orchards became vinyards and ruined my way of life. Better vinyards than track homes at least.
Read several places to expect a bottom mid oct, maybe yesterday's low was the bottom short term? Was also a new mooon, which has lately corelated with bottoms.
Insane valuations, no worries about the election, could be a set up for a viscious decline, or just another wall of worry for the bull market to climb.
For the record, I covered all my short in spy yesterday, and am only 30% long stocks. Tempted to buy slv and gdx with tight stops, probable a smart move.
Thanks, now understand the name you use. Never got into surfing,but it sure looks like a lot of fun.
I'm 70 and my son is 6,so no grandkids for my future! I think grandparents have it made, none of the hassle, all of the fun.
I bought gold at $650 in the summer of 1980,sold it at $800 in Jan 1981. My first trade!
Made $100, a lot of money for me then.
I do not recomend buying and selling physical silver and gold, too big a spread on the buy and sell.
Busy day for me, but wanted to post the weekly LEI were flat at +3.5% for the third week in a row, after having risen rapidly since the end of march.
Likely economy about to roll over, IMHO
Still short,honestly thought 3440 might hold, and it has so far short term.
50dma and 21dma both at 3400 or just below, so that level should hold for a couple days. Will cover my short at just above 3400.
Options players not worried today, and have been overenthusiastic lately. Sets up a potentially nasty drop again, like in Sept.
I only care about how politics will affect the election. the market loves either trump or biden wining a clear majority of the electorate. Looks like they will get that.
biden will do nothing to repeal the things Trump did to make it easier for major corporations to commit crimes again the population, and to take on more and more risk, which will be paid off by the public when they finally admit they made a terrible mistake.
no matter what you think of it, the Dems will pass major stimulus bills, and that will be good for the economy and the market.
History seems to care more about facts than threats and tall tales.
Even if we had only been up this morning a little bit, that would have been a very clear major sell signal.
If we can go up tomorrow again, maybe back to yesterdays highs, that would be a an easy shorting opportunity
Looks like blow off top short term, amazing
Expect a big up day tuesday to complete the topping pattern
These rallies usually end in a big up day, maybe monday?
For sure, sell on stimulus being passed, although that is not likely before next february.
Market manias go on long beyond logical levels.
We are now very overbought, normally the market pulls back 2 to 3% after that.
I shorted 300 spy at 343.73 just now afterhours.
Weekly sentiment is mixed, still not bullish or bearish enough to give a signal.
Options players are extremely bullish, which is bearish.
Greed is the reason humanity is doomed,thanks for your post.
Meltup no matter who wins is my prediction, as long as it is a clean win.
3450 next important resistance, break through that and 3600 is a given.
Markets are not logical short term.
3325 is support and 3430 resistance for the rest of this week, IMHO. Of course, major news will make either number irrelevant.
This reminds me of when Nixon was about to be impeached. I hoped whatever happened was soon, as the country and economy were in trouble. I hated nixon, but it was sad he hurt so many others when he made questionable decisions about watergate.
If it is a very close election, there will be chaos, that is for sure. Lets all hope that does not happen.
I suspect we are in a range bound market into Mid november, 3200 to 3600. I will keep buying selling climax days and shorting buying climax days.
Until we get a solid bottom at some point in the next 6 weeks, I prefer to be cautious and not take on too much risk either side of the market.
There will be no stand alone bill, and there will be no stimulus bill until biden and the dems take over in February next year.
The economy will limp along, not too hot or cold, until then. The fed will keep pumping hard, and the poor will suffer horribly, but half the american people will be ok.
Covered at 339 spy short.
Market now assumes no after election chaos, dems will sweep,and big stimulus bills next year.
At some point, market notices economy is going into a dive next 3 or 4 months, but until then, happy days are here again!
I forgot to close my order to short 500 spy at 342, lucky me! My son was driving me crazy, was too busy to do it.
Thank you donald@!
Looks like another major rally up to the recent highs, pulled my order to short spy at 342.
Market loves Biden winning by a wide margin, as then there will be no chaos after the election. Biden will tax the rich a bit more than Trump, but he will do nothing to take away the power and earning ability of the big banks, so he is a good guy.
Also, the dems will sweep both house and senate and pass a big simulus bill, also good for the market.
Silver and gold not doing well, still consolidating the massive move up from march to june.
The vix is saying sell, sell, sell. My gut is we keep rallying, but 3420 will not be broken to upside this week. Am going to short just below 3430.
I do not see a stimulus bill before next year, which is very bad for the market short term.
I can not predict how big a correction we will get, but i expect 3430 to not be broken, and will start shorting just before that level.
Am using spy, as if am wrong, qqq will shoot up faster.
Last, no vacine available until next spring, other than maybe later this year for a few people. That will also delay the recovery.
The dems look like they will win big, so a big stimulus bill next year looks likely. The market will love that. I will keep buying dips (but of course did not buy friday afternoon, dumb)
sp500 3430 soon, then 10% correction if there is no stimulus bill, or 3600 quickly if there is one.
Worked off the oversold condition,what comes next$
sp500 3430 soon, then 10% correction if there is no stimulus bill, or 3600 quickly if there is one.
Worked off the oversold condition,what comes next$
Market is difficult to figure out right now, but looks like up into next week to me.
Am being patient, waiting for better entry for a big short, or to go long.
I do not see a rally to new highs starting before the election, for many reasons. Market reacting well to news about Trump, which is bullish for now.
Good question. My experience shorting, is that "poor quality" stocks, can be expensive,as they sometimes have "good" news that can bump the value up a lot short term.
I have found the qqq and spy much safer to short, and more predictable. Obviously, a month ago shorting the qqq was a better bet,but now tech is back in favor and if we keep going up, then one will get burned badly with a short in qqq.
I want to short, but the market looks like it wants to keep going up. Probably should be fully short right now,but have lost too much money shorting this kind of market.
Market topped out last full moon, another is tomorrow night. This indicator not really valuable, but I have noticed in the past the market acts a bit crazier around the full moon. If it can move the earths oceans, I may influence our behavior too.
Will seriously look at shorting tomorrow, maybe wait for the close if market is going up all day, like today.
Still seriously thinking of shorting at spx 3430,looks like we get there soon.
Of course if they actually agree on a stimulus bill, the sky is the limit,and slv along with the sp500 will fly higher.
The bottom last week still most likely will be retested in oct, but so much depends on news.
I have learned the hard way, that taking positions when I was not pretty sure, almost always lost me money. Am not sure what happens between now and the end of november, so being very cautious.
sold all my nvda at 532, took profits and incase we start falling again after not being able to break over 3360. I know is a bit risky to use nvda instead of qld or sso to be long, but i like the stock, for better or worse, richer of poorer.
The market is still a little oversold, which is helping push prices higher but the biggest declines come from oversold conditions.
Am confused about what to do next, so am doing nothing (other than a small long in slv)
Full moon thursday, last month was crazy trading around that time. Not into this indicator too much, but as I think we top out by thursday on this rally, will seriously consider being short by thursday morning.
Will start taking profits on any rally tomorrow, as am heavily invested.
Thank you for your post, I see 3430 as next resistance level, although 3360 is going to be tough to break through. A close above that level means 3430 is soon coming after.
Pattern looks a lot like Feb 2018. 100dma held as support this week, a run back to falling 21dma at 3380 is almost a given.
3380 would fill a recent gap down that started the recent down move.
Conservative trading would close out long positions at 3350, start shorting at 3380. just a thought.
Even more conservative is to sell stocks you dont want to own forever at 3350, and hedge those you dont want to sell at 3400.
Looks to me like we got a rock solid bottom in short term. We just had a 11% correction, interday high to interday low, and a nice reverse head and shoulders formation for last 3 days.
Wednesday was a classic selling climax day, and we got very oversold on my indicators that day.
3400 will be a 6% rally off the lows. I expect we see that level before the selling comes in strong again. I also expect several 30 to 60pt drops in the spx along the way.
Bottom line: This mornings dip was the time to get in fully invested. I am only 60% long stocks, 10% long silver. At least am long high betta stocks that move a lot more than the market.