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good post
DooDahMan, maybe we'll never know the extent to which Dicut is/has been victimized by the practice of naked short selling. It seems to me though that when this long awaited news is given to the market, and if it is news of major import, its effect could be great enough to cause a lot of covering of those shorts, and so amplify the appreciation of the pps.
Last week seemed to be a good opportunity to pick up a few more shares, so I increased my position by around ten percent.
Are you in a hold mode or are you still buying?
Agreed
Iglatend, reading through the RB board today you can see some of the usual comments one can expect on a down day like today, including the unfortunate, but predictable personally directed spammer attacks. So it was good to read your post and the logic with which you are approaching this stock. I agree.
Good luck, longs.
.083 or .085
Iglatend, did you finally get filled today at .083, or did you pay .085?
I understand your impatience and a "I-give-up" timeframe of late this week; even though I don't have the same time horizon that you express I can see how a lot of investors are getting short on patience. It might be worth observing that whenever you find yourself getting short on the will to stay in a stock, many other of your fellow investors are also. And, just maybe that is what it 'feels like' at the bottom of a pps curve.
So whatever you do, good luck; I'll be staying right here, watching the show.
soft market
Iglatend, I see the recent Dicut trading as favorable, but that's because I've returned to buy some more shares this last week or so. We saw a while ago, during that 'ricin trading' that any news or even rumors of news will produce an unmistakeable volume and price spike, so quite obviously the drift downward from .14 to here is not a function of any fundamental change in the company.
We all read a number of posts here and over at RB lately that report conversations/emails with Dicut personnel, and those posts give the impression that the probability of success (finally) in obtaining a contract of some sort is higher beginning late this week and into the end of next week. But, a lot of investors don't put credence in that sort of assertion anymore, so I think that explains the recent driftdown in the price: all it takes is a decision to sell even a small number of shares and the pps slowly moves in response.
So, it is just a quiet start to another week.... -Me, I'm doing my part, picking up a few shares here and there, not really worried if I buy at the absolute bottom on either a short term or a more intermediate term basis.
Public correspondence
Iglatend, you're welcome.
Here's another way of looking at this question (that question being, is Dicut legitimate or is it a disappointment in the making?), and I frame it primarily for those readers who have not been in direct contact with the management there:
Including you and me, there are at least six posters on this and the RB site who state that they have been in contact with Mr. Quilliam and have been told, in one way or another, that he expects to release a PR of substance in this present timeframe. The others are: biigboy, investor89, dcut1, and slyolfox. If you assume that none of these names are duplicates (and I don't believe that any of them are), then we're looking at six sources of affirmation that the company is indeed expecting to get this done soon.
So, if the PR doesn't happen it would be due to either a disasterous series of failures of negotiations or worse. As I look at the people involved at the company, the DD one can read through on both of these boards, and at the marketplace they are selling to, there is just no reason to think that that will happen. If the S-8 selling brings the price down somewhat further in the coming days (note the word 'if'), that activity will pale in comparison to the positive market response to what I expect to be coming.
OK, good luck to all, time to hit the road for awhile.
Holding on
Iglatend, I think what we're seeing today (in addition to what could possibly be S-8 selling, see RB posts of today) includes some capitulation selling by a few holders of this stock. So, when you ask 'how long should a person hold on or keep buying?' my answer is 'it depends on the tolerance level of each individual investor'. I believe that today has shown that some stockholders have reached their patience limit; if that is so, well then since I disagree with their view of this stock, I see those sales as unfortunate last minute decisions, decisions made quite possibly at the time that might be someday seen as having been the very best time to have bought.
You're right though; only a 'positive PR' will turn this stock northward. At some point (I'd say by mid-April, certainly earlier than that for some investors) if Dicut were not to produce evidence of new sales/successes then there wouldn't be anyone left around to wonder. As you might suspect, I don't see that as the scenario that'll be unfolding.
Hang in there. I think it'll be a fun ride.
news expectations
dcut1, as recently as this past Monday (2/23/04) the company has been planning to release not just one, but more than one PR, and they won't be of the 'financial' type, as you put it.
I do not know the exact dates of release nor specifics of the topics to be discussed except to say that Dicut has the expectation/hope that the marketplace will see them as 'positive'.
manufacture site
slyolfox, I don't know for a fact where Dicut has their hardware produced, but I recall someone either here or at Ihub recently discussed the following link:
http://bioenabletech.com/
If you right-click on that page and select "view source", you'll find a dictionary of a lot of vendors worldwide, and terms associated with the security industry.
About one third of the way down that list, within the paragraph that begins with "Biometric competitive products" can be found the following sequence:
"xPassThruTM, xPassDormTM, xPassOnlineTM, xPassDriverTM,
SafeTravelTM, Biometric One PassTM, Aurora Biometrics Healthcare Sentry (ABHS)TM, Detect-X DX100, Detect-X HH150, Detect-X XT75, Detect-X ST-1"
I don't know much about website construction but my understanding is that this source list is constructed by the people at Bioenabletech (in India) for the purpose of using those terms for their website’s marketing or contractual matters. So, it may be that this is where Dicut has their hardware produced. If so, a read through of that site would make it seem that this company would be able to provide equipment as the demand would dictate, negating the need for warehousing.
P.S. I haven't been able to get a post into RB, so this is essentially a reply to your RB message #3639.
The only thing we have to fear is....
-Now let me see, how does that quote end again?
Iglatend, this is something of a remarkable, somewhat sad day, since it appears that a number of sellers are throwing in their chips here; a lot of shares have been sold here (mid-day 2/26) at .110.
Clearly some investors out there do not believe there will be meaningful information of Dicut's development activities soon, or they wouldn't be walking away with eleven cents.
I can't promise you, or guarantee you that these developments are imminent, but the odds are very good that that is the case. In that event there will be some folks that'll be pretty upset that they got pressuring into selling today.
With a small float like this it doesn't take much to force a fairly large change in the price in the absence of news. Good luck with your decision though, what ever you decide to do.
Investor communications
DooDaMan, Chadman, I've been on the road for a few days so haven't had the chance to keep up with Dicut's affairs, but your posts were very much to the point and understood.
Here's another way to look at this matter: the management is very much aware of the eagerness of many of us in the investment community for some 'pps breaking news'. The fact that they haven't put out a lot of 'fluff' in an attempt to placate everyone is a good thing (although the ricin PR has been viewed by some, not by me, as 'fluff') because it likely means they're working on projects that are of substance. This is also the reason that we've been able to buy stock, if we choose to, at prices like .12 to .20 cents, which IMO are very very good prices. They are the kind of prices that many will rue over as we get past this phase of waiting around, watching small volume days with no trading conviction out there.
I confess that although I had not planned on buying any more stock here, the prices today looked too good to pass up in light of the additional perspective that I developed (additional to those in my post #1219) on Feb 23. On that Monday I was assured by Mr. Quilliam that they are about to make some announcements (note the plural, not singular tense) that they hope will be taken as positive news by the market. Now, I can't guarantee that this will happen, I can only recount what was communicated to me. I also don't know in what specific area of their business plan they are going to discuss. Finally, and we've discussed this before, these guys are dealing with political entities, and that is a very difficult arena to be precise in when it comes to dates of execution.
So there it is. Nothing has come my way that has changed my basic bullish posture on this compnay. I understand, Chadman, how patience is applicable but faith doesn't stay forever. Here's the deal, though. If you stay with this one, and if you are correct in doing so, you'll be very very pleased. And if you sell/capitulate, like we've seen from some here in these last few weeks, you'll conversely be very disappointed.
As the esteemable Mr. Powers would say, "yeah, capitalism".
Biigboy is right
DooDahMan,
I'm willing to express my confidence to you and the other dcuters that the wait for a PR of significance is about over. I don't have a precise date for you, but I have reason to believe that the time has almost arrived when we will hear from the company.
And by the way, I realize that there are those who will interpret this post as a pump. It is not. It is a favor for which I expect nothing in return; I just finished (a few weeks ago) buying all my intended shares for this particular company and am buying elsewhere at the moment.
I believe history will show that today's trading was one of the last days of the MMs hoarding shares from the weak hands out there.
kmikesara,
The Home Depot corporate headquarters are in Atlanta, just down the road from Marietta are they not? So certainly it would be an easy logistical operation to install such a system there.
The only reason that I speculate that retail (checkout counter) uses at Home Depot stores might be contemplated is because Mr. Quilliam mentioned the advertising function on the side of the biometric box (mentioned in some of my earlier posts).
No matter which venue of deployment, if Dicut opens such a relationship with a company the size of Home Depot, that would be excellent. Just as having a functional biometric system in Moldova must be good for marketing it to other countries in that region, so would it be a good thing to have a HD biometric system up and running for other potential retail customers to study.
Corporate Security
kmikesara, I'm not familiar with that end of a retail sales company; by what process do losses occur through the work force at, for example a Home Depot store? I presume that some employees defraud the company in some way or that they siphon off some of the merchandise at the delivery/acceptance locations?
Is there anyone on this board who is familiar enough with how a retail outlet like HD operates to know how these losses are occuring, how much money is lost in this way, and by what procedures (an employee facial ID verification system) these losses would be reduced?
If your suggested possibility would be the way that Dicut's product would be employed at retail stores instead of at the checkout counter, perhaps the privacy issues (which I see as minor obstacles even in a retail deployment) would be less of a problem.
Privacy concerns,
DoDahMan, RufusLey, I don't want to appear as though I'm 'dropping names' as the phrase has it, but it was also clear that Mr. Quilliam was very well versed and aware of the privacy concerns/aspects of Dicut's (Helena's) technology; it was one of the first things he discussed with me, I didn't have a chance to bring it up. He appeared very confident about the eventual acceptance of this bio-id process in the face of (get it?) a loss of a new aspect of privacy.
My guess, and that's all it is, an educated guess, is that Home Depot would offer a discount on all goods purchased if the consumer (who would use their Home Depot cards, not a M/C or VISA) went through a checkout process that Dicut would be involved in. If HD would save X dollars per year from reduced losses from ID fraud, then they'd give the customers some of that savings back in the form of price reductions of their goods.
If this does end up getting done with HD, and if it is successful, the overall retail market for this process would not be small, would it?
A final caveat: I only know that this is a project that Home Depot and Dicut have been discussing. I don't know what the probability is of it being agreed to and implemented.
Private talks
DoDahMan, if I could interject here, I can tell you that Dicut has been in talks with Home Depot for a number of weeks now. The proposal centers around facial biometrics, deployed at the retail level. Mr. Quilliam told me that these talks have gotten to the level of detail that includes the minor question of whether or not DCUT could provide Home Depot advertising on the screen on the side of the biometric verification unit (-and yes, they can do that). Presumably this means that the customer would be watching promotional images while waiting to have his image verified against his card in the checkout line (this last sentence is my conjecture from the conversation- he didn't get specific on the process nor on the scope of the talks).
It of course is not known whether or not this deal will happen. I can only state that the talks have gotten to the point described above. I don't have knowledge of any other non-governmental customer talks underway, but that doesn't mean that there are none.
employee stock plan
(my post from RB) DoDahMan, the s-8 a month ago (1/08/2004) was one that "..represents shares issued pursuant to consulting agreements for continued services by officers, attorneys, directors and consultants to the Registrant, including services related to sales and marketing of the Company's products and services seeking joint ventures and potential acquisitions, promotional services with respect to Registrant's business establishment of distributorship agreements.."
By contrast the s-8 of yesterday (2/12/04) is one that is a part of the employee stock plan, the first issue of which was 2/25/2002, almost exactly two years ago: "..Consists of an aggregate of 1,500,000 shares of Common Stock, par value $0.001 per share, authorized under the Dicut 2002 STOCK OPTION PLAN ..Consists of an aggregate of 1,500,000 shares of Common Stock..authorized under the Dicut 2002 Employee, Consultant and Advisor STOCK COMPENSATION PLAN..." (The caps are mine for emphasis, I'm not meaning to shout here)
DCUT needs to raise money from stock dilution, essentially, until the contractual revenues and bank credit lines appear, it is as simple as that. If you'd like to read through post #1747 again I've presented some views of this company in the scenario of full dilution to 200M shs.
The trading in the next few weeks will be interesting. On the one hand there is more dilution today and I'd suspect additional dilution ahead as well. There is also more cash available for what I believe to be good uses in corporate development. So today we'll all vote in the marketplace to see what this means. My vote is to hold, but that's I'm sure no surprise to hear.
Good luck to all.
Lockheed team expertise
Biigboy, one of the Lockheed partners, Unysis does has some experience in the biometric security area, although I don't know any specifics about what type of biometrics that might be. Are there any readers out there who are familiar with this regarding Unysis?
A possibility you refer to would be DCUT interfacing with one of the subcontractors like a Unysis type company?
regards.
Lockheed partners for DHS proposal
biigboy, the US VISIT prime contractor award should be in May '04. Lockheed's major partners are Booz Allen Hamilton, Harris Corporation, IBM, Management Systems Designers, SAIC, SI International and Unisys Corporation. I don't know who the partners are for Lockheed's competitors (Computer Sciences Corp and Accenture LLP).
I haven't any knowledge of which if any of the three prime contractors DCUT might or might not be working with; according to public comments by US VISIT Program Director Jim Williams on 8 July '03, the program "must include significant small and disadvantaged business participation".
Is anyone aware of whether or not DCUT is participating in these bids, either with Lockheed or with one of the other two prime contractors?
A fourth possible reason
Chadman, if Dicut were selling their wares to the general public, e.g. softdrinks, telephone service, your concerns would have more efficacy. But the marketplace they are competing in and selling into is not influenced by the type of information releases you speak of; rather, those decision makers (governmental IT types, essentially) are best approached by quiet personal contacts and demonstrations of the capabilities of their wares, in this case their software wares. Too much noise about those activities can also be heard by the competition of course.
Having said that, the investment community would certainly appreciate being 'thrown a bone' now and then, as someone here has written a while ago. In this area, I agree with you.
Hang tight. When the developments are announced there'll be no way to fight your way in through the small doorway.
Listing
slyolfox, I agree. I just emailed them with that suggestion, with my views as to why. Thanx.
Don't sweat the small stuff
biigboy, here's my take on the situation. When we look back some day on the pps charts for this company there will be a significant discontinuity to be seen, and a favorable one for those who were Long prior. The date(s) that happens is tough, impossible perhaps to predict (and of course if it were predictable/known then the pps wouldn't be in the .16 range like it is right now). Once DCUT announces higher revenue expectations, given the small float it'll be impossible for short term traders (like the one that you refered to) to get 'in' in time, and then you'll be reading comments on RB bemoaning THAT fact.
BTW I had the opportunity to speak with Mr. Quilliam the other day, and also stopped by the Vienna offices last month. Although I remain as convinced as I was over a year ago about the long term case for optimism here, clearly the company is less forthcoming with their information and the framing of it than they were last fall. That's the way it should be anyway, I suppose.
As you know, trying to predict exactly when a DHS contract(s) gets announced is really tough to do, but I have noticed DHS getting a little busier in their contract award actions these last few days, so....
-Best of luck to you; maybe I'll pick up a few more shares sometime. In any case I'll see you on the other side of the news one of these days.
Pershing Trading Company
Iglatend, here's a link that sends you to research on PERT:
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/symbol.asp?issues=MPIDs&searchwith=starting&searchby=symbol&sea...
I haven't seen any.
-And I don't know the reason, although a good guess might be just the DHS beaurocratic inertia that can slow things down in mysterious ways. That also would mean that there is a lot of pent-up demand building out there for same.
DCUT on today's 'Stocks to Watch' list.
"Weston, FLA., Jan 07, 2004 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) -- Wall Street News Alert` s "stocks to watch" this morning are: Bluetorch Inc. ( BTOR ), GlobalNet Corp. ( GLBT ), Golden Spirit Minerals Ltd ( GSPM ), Cybertel Communications ( CYTP ) and Dicut Inc ( DCUT ).......Stocks showing interesting activity yesterday were: GlobalNet Corp. ( GLBT ) down 1.8% on 21.9 million shares traded, Golden Spirit Minerals Ltd ( GSPM ) down 3.8% on 1 million shares traded, Cybertel Communications ( CYTP ) down 15% on 163.4 million shares traded and Dicut Inc ( DCUT ) down 3.1% on 1 million shares traded...."
I'm not sure what makes a 3.1% price change on 1M shs newsworthy down there in Weston, in the context of the last three months' worth of trading.
fingerprinting vs. facial biometrics
Chadman, my view is that, at the national level, facial biometrics will be developed and deployed complimentarily with fingerprinting. I don't see either one displacing the other in popularity, at least in the intermediate (one to three yrs) term.
Overall not a bad day to be long, was it? I find some interesting similarities between DCUT's price/volume pattern when comparing mid Nov '02 through mid Dec '02 to these last few weeks. It is notable that there was a price rise and volume spike just a few trading days prior to the (5 Dec '02) release of the VA contract PR.
The Veteran's Admin is busy today.
Could this have some applicability to the expansion of DCUT's VA contract?
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 31, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- McKesson Corporation ( MCK ) announced today that it has been selected by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), which runs the nation's largest integrated healthcare system, to be the VA's Pharmaceutical Prime Vendor. The two-year agreement, valued at approximately $2.9 billion per year, calls for McKesson to supply all of the VA's medical centers and outpatient clinics, as well as the VA's Consolidated Mail Outpatient Pharmacies (CMOPs).
"We're extremely pleased to have been selected by the Department of Veterans Affairs as its primary pharmaceutical supplier through an extensive, highly objective and multi-faceted review process," said John H. Hammergren, chairman and chief executive officer of McKesson Corporation. "We believe the VA's decision is reflective of McKesson's enhanced focus on government business and builds upon our strong performance as a pharmaceutical supplier to the Department of Defense. We look forward to meeting the VA's growing needs over the term of our relationship, and in the process creating significant value for the VA, our nation's veterans and for McKesson's shareholders over the life of this contract."
As part of the contract, which becomes effective on April 1, 2004, McKesson will supply pharmaceuticals to approximately 665 facilities, including more than 270 VA medical centers and outpatient clinics, as well as the VA's seven CMOPs. The initial two-year contract includes options for up to three, two-year extensions. The VA is already utilizing McKesson dispensing automation in some of its hospitals and CMOPs.
"Quality of service and the availability of innovative technology to integrate with the VA's automated ordering and dispensing technology were major factors in the VA's selection process," said Paul Julian, president, McKesson Supply Solutions. "We believe it was our track record in those two areas that convinced them to select McKesson. The VA has been nationally recognized for its effective integration of technology in patient care. We are honored to provide our expertise to its mission to care for the veteran population."
About the Department of Veterans Affairs
The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) was established on March 15, 1989, succeeding the Veterans Administration. It is responsible for providing federal benefits to veterans and their dependents. Headed by the Secretary of Veterans Affairs, VA is the second largest of the 15 Cabinet departments and operates nationwide programs for health care, financial assistance and burial benefits.
Perhaps the most visible of all VA benefits and services is health care. From 54 hospitals in 1930, VA's health care system has grown to 163 hospitals, with at least one in each of the 48 contiguous states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. VA health care facilities provide a broad spectrum of medical, surgical and rehabilitative care.
More than 4.5 million people received care in VA health care facilities in 2002. VA is used annually by approximately 75 percent of all disabled and low-income veterans. In 2002, VA treated 564,700 patients in VA hospitals and contract hospitals, 50,267 in nursing homes and 22,541 in domiciliaries. VA's outpatient clinics registered approximately 46.5 million visits.
100% attainment of the 2% global revenue goal
Iglatend, certainly if DCUT were ever to completely achieve their revenue goal of 2% of 31B there would be no tears from me or any other Long.
Using the assumptions of post #1009 and using revenue of 100% of their goal, 620M would translate to a pps of $31. If they were to dilute the O/S fully to the presently authorized 200M shs, that would still work out to $8 or so.
Although this scenario you wondered about is fun to think about, it really is hard for me to come up with a series of events/company infrastructure improvements that gets us that high on the revenue side of the ledger, unless you're looking out beyond four or five years. If they have a plan(s) and a reason(s) to ultimately expect the stated revenue in that 19 Sep 03 PR, it is very tightly held.
Finally, a factor in the pps projections that should be considered/discussed here is the potential for an eventual acquistion of DCUT by a larger player, and the price that would likely have to be paid in various scenarios. I can also envision a corporate "combination of equals" at some point. Certainly that sort of activity wouldn't come along until DCUT's products got to a greater maturity and market visibility. Any views/possible candidates on this question out there?
Long term pps projection
nitetrak, like Yogi once said, 'predictions are tough to make, especially about the future'. Having said that, I'm still willing to answer your question and venture something of a prediction for DCUT's market price in 2004.
I'll start with the PR of 19 Sep 03 (which was 7 weeks after the acquisition of Aurora Biometrics) in which DCUT set out revenue goals of 2% of a 31B global market, which is 620M.
If you posit that there is no further dilution of the 50M shares, here are some examples of pps as a function of the percent achievement of that 620M goal. I'll assume a 2.5/1 ratio of pps to revenue per share:
1% of goal= 6.2M revenue= .31 pps
5% of goal= 31.0M revenue= $1.55 pps
10% of goal= 62.0M revenue= $3.10 pps
The difficult part, of course, is to predict what will develop in the Dept of Homeland Security, Eastern Europe biometric, anthrax detection, and VA prescription delivery relationships, keeping in mind that this a start-up company, and remembering that it has some very well connected folks working on various contract proposals and on product development, as has been noted in numerous posts. My opinion is that we will see PRs throughout next year that will tell the marketplace to anticipate intermediate revenues at an annual rate of 30M or so (as opposed to seeing 30M revenue on a 2004 annual statement).
One of the intriguing things about DCUT's present marketplace pricing is that, with the float as small as it is and with what appears to be a lot of shorting out there, any news that changes the dynamic of this stock should likely result in a price increase rate that will be very hard to 'get onboard' with.
So there it is. I'm taking a walk out on the limb and venturing a price target for you of $1.50 next year, and that doesn't include any momentum premium that investors may assign. With the number of short term traders who are either in this stock now or watching it closely, it'll show a lot of volatility getting there, to understate the matter.
Eastern European Populations
Here is a population table for your conjecture/revenue estimation in a scenario wherein DCUT secures additional facial recognition contracts with other nearby (to Moldova) countries. Moldova's contract revenue has been projected by the company to average 0.5 M USD per year.
Moldova 04.4 M
Ukraine 48.1 M
Belarus 10.3 M
Poland 38.6 M
Slovakia 05.4 M
Hungary 10.0 M
Czech Republic 10.2 M
Lithuania 03.6 M
Latvia 02.3 M
Estonia 01.4 M
Albania 03.6 M
Macedonia 02.1 M
Bulgaria 07.5 M
Serbia/Monten. 10.7 M
Greece 10.7 M
Turkey 68.1 M
Romania 22.2 M
HSD purchasing procedures emerging
Here's an interesting article (19 Dec 03) by Greta Wodele of the National Journal's Technology Daily. It shows, among other things, that the procurement process is/will be a complex one, requiring some patience by investors. Note the final paragraph, reinforcing the point that the number of dollars involved here is quite large.
<<The Homeland Security Department is beginning to develop a strategy for more efficiently purchasing technologies, according to officials.
"We're doing what any company would do in a merger," chief procurement officer Greg Rothwell said recently at a Minority Business Roundtable forum, describing his office's plan to assess how the 22 different agencies recently merged into the department buy products and services in order to adopt "best practices" across the department for certain commodities.
Lee Kair, who is responsible for acquisition systems and strategic sourcing, said officials are in the initial stages of drafting the strategy. They are contacting various agencies, including the Coast Guard, the Transportation Security Administration, customs and border protection division, and Secret Service. The next step will be to approach industry for feedback through the FedBizzOpps.gov Web site, he said.
Officials are organizing the strategy by creating commodity councils with representatives from across the department to determine how each agency purchases certain commodities, Kair said. The councils then will recommend the most efficient process for the department to follow when procuring each commodity.
Kair described the strategy as "acquisition sensitive," declining to discuss the number or type of commodity councils. He also said the strategy would be revealed soon but refused to set a date.
Developing procurement strategy is not uncommon for federal agencies. Kair said Homeland Security is learning from Defense Department, which is "furthest along at doing this." He said officials are using a June 2003 General Accounting Office audit of Defense's strategy as background, as well as reviewing the Air Force's strategic sourcing policy for its transformation.
Until Homeland Security finishes its approach, Kair said industry should retain its business relationships with the individual agencies.
Homeland Security estimated in fiscal 2002 that before joining the department, the different agencies spent a total of $10.3 billion on contracts. The Transportation Security Administration spent the most at $4.5 billion, followed by the Coast Guard at $1.4 billion and the former immigration office at $1.7 billion.>>
I agree with your view
DoDahMan, well, yes my holdings are at 1M+; actually I didn't think the DCUT market would remain at this (ten cent) level as long as it has, so I'm pleased to have been able to build this position.
It is tough to know whether this is the bottom or not, since in addition to news developments, human emotion is involved here and one can't predict that. But in general I agree that we've arrived at something near a bottom; if it drops again I'll be there to pick up a few more. BTW all the impatience out there for a PR ASAP is understandable in this age of instant gratification, but methinks (that's a great old-fashioned word there I borrowed from you isn't it?) it won't be much more of a wait.
I'd also like to return the compliment to you for your observations and DD over the last few weeks/months. May your new year be a prosperous one.
The ol' coiled spring
biigboy, last week I sat down to pick up a few more shares, as is my habit during this period of (what will some day be seen as) low historical DCUT prices. The order was for 92K at a fraction below the ask, and the MMs would only sell me 1K. When I resubmitted at the ask, only 20K was 'available'. By the time the entire order filled the ask had gotten pushed up to the original price plus eight or nine percent.
The point here (and most of you have experienced this) is that the float is so small that even a minor demand for new shares drives the price up a significant amount. So, when this company goes public with ______, there will not be time for buyers to react to that news. During those initial post-release hours our market maker friends out there will not be willing to sell to new buyers anywhere near the price at the news breaking level.
Anyhow, have you finished with most of your (and/or your group's) buying? Over at this end I've finished my accumulation (1,007K), and unless the price returns to the seven/eight cent level I'll be giving more attention to other more conservative investment projects.
RB is up on my screen.
DoDahMan, there was in addition a most interesting transaction at .22 today, certainly a misprint.
Cheers.
Revenue per share, price per share
biigboy, this was certainly one of the more interesting weeks of trading in a while. The way I'd summarize it would be to observe that DCUT released the revenue details of a (soon to be seen as comparitively minor?) previously outlined contract with the government of Moldova. It brings an average of .5M revenue per year against 50M shares, or incremental revenue of around .01 per share. In response the market adjusted the pps up by .015, from .085 up to .10 after the predictable overshoot/recovery from the actions of the short term traders.
So, last week the market was rather predictable, rewarding revenue with price at a ratio of around 150%. That to me is quite interesting when one extrapolates this to any future contract announcements. If, to pick a hypothetical example, DCUT were to go public with a US government contract(s) worth an incremental 10M annual revenue, the same market response as what we just saw would result in a pps increase of around .30. -And BTW, said 10M contract would represent only 2% of Mr. Quilliam's (seemingly ambitious IMO) stated corporate revenue goal of 620M.
Simply restated, if this company begins to deliver what it is capable of, the pps response could be quite inelastic, and fun to watch as a long.
Best of luck to all in the next few weeks, and happy holidays, as we so generically say nowadays...
Footnote to Frost & Sullivan report
This analysis (see the prior post) states that global 2002 face recognition biometrics revenues were 21.5 million, and forecasts them to grow to 791.8 million during 2009.
Biometrics research from Frost & Sullivan
Here is a (Mindbranch) summary of their Oct 2003 study:
"..Rising Awareness and Increasing Security Concerns Boost Face Recognition Biometrics Market
Growth opportunities abound in the face recognition biometrics market with government and non-government enterprises evincing keen interest in implementing biometric solutions to combat terrorist attacks. Lucrative new markets arise specifically in areas of border control, immigration application, and passenger processing at airports giving this technology new life. The sudden interest is spurring performance evaluation and deployment in hitherto unexplored territories.
This Frost & Sullivan research service analyzes the World face recognition biometrics market. It provides key market drivers, restraints affecting growth, and offers a detailed competitive market analysis. The research provides a seven-year revenue forecast across different vertical, application, and geographical segments. It provides detailed insights into recent developments, trends, and emerging applications.
New Legislations and Database Mining Applications are Spurring Growth
"Important new legislations and standardization efforts by industry associations have given a tremendous impetus to face recognition biometrics," say the analysts of this research. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) recommends its usage as best suited in machine-readable travel documents (MRTD). Moreover, the U.S. Enhanced Border Security and Visa Entry Reform Act mandates the use of biometrics in travel documents, passports and visas, boosting biometric equipment and software adoption levels. It also mandates ICAO recommendations to be followed. With huge impending investments by these segments, participants targeting it can expect to witness high revenue growth.
Additionally, applications that require database mining hold great promise. Though face recognition technology experiences stiff competition from other biometric technologies in traditional areas of application such as physical access control and PC/network security, the technology is ideal for database mining applications such as driver's license programs, and casino surveillance. "Face recognition technology's ability for database mining can be used to prevent multiple identities in driver's license, passport and visa databases. "Since facial images are an intrinsic part of driver's licenses, visas and passports, there is a clear fit of face recognition technology," say the analysts.
Better Technologies Likely to Drive Growth
Consistent R&D efforts by manufacturers are directed toward improving accuracy and reliability of face recognition technology. Face recognition biometrics is in its early growth stage and needs high investments to boost market growth and solve the dual purpose of creating demand and generating awareness. "With functionality improvements in the future and better technologies such as 3D face recognition, customers are likely to get better value for money," inform the analysts.
New application opportunities include expedited passenger processing and surveillance applications in the post 9/11 era. Face recognition's capability to perform one-to-many searches also enables applications that involve database mining.."
Clearly the market players who will benefit from this emerging opportunity will be those with good products, and well connected with those who write government contracts. IMO Dicut is such a company. That's why I've continued to increase my position this week.
Good luck to all.
Email from Mr. Quilliam
I presume that Mr. Quilliam would not object to my forwarding of most of his letter to you all:
Good afternoon (......)
.......We have held off on press releases in the last few weeks for a number of
reasons, the principal being that we were in the process of moving our
headquarters to brand new facilities in Marietta Ga and like all new
buildings there are a number of hitches in the new installation which take
time and effort to correct.
Also we have been very diligent in our pursuit of some excitingly major
contracts which will be awarded very soon and we are confident of making
some important press releases at the time.
Thank you for your substantial interest in our corporation and be assured
that we are doing all we can to make this venture the huge success that our
shareholders deserve.
Regards
Pierre Quilliam
President
Thanx for the reply,
Zabuta, I'd feel a lot better about watching the b/a changes if I knew that the MMs were disinterested third party effectors of orders from the marketplace. The fact that they also buy and sell for their own profits continues to be a cause for concern to me.
A question for Zabuta ref. spreads
Zabuta, I don't have much knowledge of the techniques/reasonings of a MM, so could you describe why it is that the b/a price spread gets increased at a certain point during the trading day? I had been under the impression that the reason the spread got increased was due to the lack of current buying and/or selling pressure from the marketplace, but do the MMs rather have the discretion to widen the b/a as they see fit based on such things as impending news?
Thanx in advance for the input.
Chadman, welcome to the board.
Although it is tough speaking for others, I'd say that lot of the people who have been frequenting this discussion group are those who wouldn't really fit the description of a day trader. Most are long/intermediate term investors who have seen value/appreciation potential in DCUT for a long time. If you've taken the time to read over a lot of the DD posts on this site and on RB, you know that; there is a lot of great info on those sites about this relatively undiscovered stock.
For my part, I've been long DCUT since around June '02, when shares could be had for two, three, and four cents. I've continued to accumulate these last two months or so as the stock has endured a most bizzare and irrational sell-off. Those who stayed with the stock during those weeks (and those who used that decline as a chance to buy more at better prices) will, IMO, be very richly rewarded. Right now I'm sitting on just over 850K shares, and I'm developing a selling strategy in terms of dollars, not in terms of pennies per share.
Good luck in your decision making.