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Actually, the flavor of what I have been reading for the past month is basically that a blow-off high will happen soon (it has started).
Level targets were S&P support at 920, resistance at 1100. Dow support at 8350-8500 and resistance at 9000-9200.
This is Primary wave 2 up. (Primary wave 1 down took 17 months... Oct 07 to Mar 09). The retracement in Pimary wave 2 up (... it has already satisfied the minimum 'time' length of 3 months, but the way I read it, the uptrend should last no more that 3-6 months) should take levels to those quoted above. Then, Primary wave 3 down starts. It will be a killer...... Richard will certainly have his volatility.
Rarely do they change the wave count in 'primary' waves. It is all other waves within that can get changed (that's always a bummer). So, this Primary wavew gets my attention.
I will read more... and as you know, these are technicians & cycle folks who have (thankfully) divested themselves from hype. Well worth following IMHO... helps me sleep at night.
And as for chickens, I can cluck with the best of them! LOL!
And, lastly, Bradley stats (bold are IMPORTANT dates)... wondering what the weaker dates of Sep 14 and Oct 22 will bring? November has got to be up, no?):
Jun 03
Jun 26
J u l y 14
Sep 14
Oct 22
N o v e m b e r 11
Here's the DAILY gann, published on 5/29. This opens Thurs, Fri, & Monday (only trading days counted):
In early January, 2009, this WEEKLY gann was provided. (Note: there were NO gann events which would have clustered on the 3/9/09 low. So, in Gann terms, the 3/9/09 low was a blindside. HOWEVER... it is a major low and, therefore, becomes a Gann count date going forward). Here's that January chart. (plus or minus one week allowed the turn on the week ending 6/19. Like I said, it was 4 straight weeks down from then):
Mike...
I liked your tracking of the tea leaves. The weekly gann (6/26 +/- one week) nailed the down Jun 19 down week (followed by 4 straight down weeks)... then, Bradley nailing the current time period. Remember than a 'daily' gann sits on 7/17 +/- one day. Maybe this Friday is the down? Or, intraday tomorrow is the down?
I have some very interesting reading from a variety of sources stacked up to read which should give some type of cyclical guidance going forward. I'll share as much as I can but must continue this massive workload in anticipation of being off for JW's knee replacement next week.
I'll do my best & will keep reading each night.
Glory days, don't let them pass you by...
When resting between trades, you can enjoy this little tidbit.
Off-topic, but not one to miss!
Not too many years after that (in the 80's ??) there was a programer at the bank who did just that. He took the excess interest calculations beyond the 'thousands', dropped the fractional money into an account, & had more than $5,000,000 when they caught him.
Now then... picture a hungry grocery store manager who places instructions into a cash register to "1) accumulate each item for a grand total & store it in the accumulator, then 2) count the items entered, then 3) if the count is 100+ items add $10 to the accumulator BEFORE printing the total."
It would work. When would he get caught? When someone takes the receipt and physically adds the numbers on an adding machine. Who does that with a longggggg tape?? And, if they found a $10 difference, they would chalk it up to an entry error on their part. Better yet, if they did a second tape & came out with the same result... then brought the problem to the store manager... the manager would shirk his shoulders in disbelief. He'd pay them the $10 back and then assure the customer that a quirk had happened.. soon to be looked into.
Given volume, a chunk of free money would come to the store. It adds up. The manager would win blue ribbons for profitability. Success for him is just a program instruction away...
It can happen just about anywhere. Even in plain view.
Hey, I just got this flash: "NYSE to extend close by 15 minutes due to technical glitches". What could that be?
Yes... And make sure we watch the Bradley too.
Jul 14: Important Bradley +/- ONE day.
Jul 17: DAILY Gann... */- ONE day.
Looks like July 13-17 is "the" week of the month?!
A couple of things...
Did you notice that his biggest anger (shouting in 'caps') was the 22% increase in his healthcare??? His whole world is collapsing and his anger is with healthcare costs. Go figure...
Lastly... as with Elroy's story... (both of which are within one week apart)... those on the 'brink' are not in the news or the stats yet. They will soon be.
How many are on the brink?
These folks have held on until they have exhausted all resources. If there is a flood of folks who have exhausted all resources soon to be ensnared in the legal system, soon to force recognition of losses to our financial system, and soon to require 'aid', then we might be seeing the next round in the financial boxing match.
Scarey.
Then, there's this one from Rude Awakening. They asked their readers to give them "boots on the ground" reports as to what they are experiencing. This request was to broaden the scope for readers BEYOND the media reports. Here's one that really caught my eye:
From Nevada, a reader reports:
I'll give you some "boots on the ground!"
Until yesterday, when I met with a bankruptcy attorney, I thought I could financially survive this debacle. But it doesn't look like I can.
I live in Vegas, own a high rise condo at the Strip that is worth $125K less than the loans on it, am a 50% partner in an LLC that developed 4 fabulous warehouse buildings. Sold one a year ago but still have 3 warehouses for sale that have been sitting empty since built in January, '08, possess First Deeds of Trust with face value of about $500,000 that haven't made any payments in over a year (just now starting to foreclose to get property that can't be sold today) and are worth about 10-25 cents on the dollar (but have no idea when I will see it), have a $1M investment in a mezzanine loan on a high rise condo that is probably worth 30-40 cents on the investment dollar (but have no idea when I will see it), and of course I still have to pay my alimony, pay for my kids college and private high school education, not to mention my health insurance premiums (WHICH RECENTLY INCREASED 22% FROM LAST YEAR), auto insurance and every other daily expenditure to live. My retirement accounts are down 50% and my income from all sources has basically dried up (a few sales commissions and consulting jobs bring in some cash)...Bottom line is unless something happens quickly on the upside, I am in a bit of financial trouble.
The point is, there are probably tens of thousands, if not millions of people in the same overall trouble that I am in...and my story doesn't make the headlines!!! Perhaps it will as my BK filings will ultimately be magnified by those thousands who soon will flood the system with such filings.
I know for a fact that there are no green shoots...everything is browning out! After talking to my bankers who are about to foreclose on my warehouses, from my attorneys who tell me I am not alone and some of the most successful and well known developers in town are in worse shape, and from my "friends" at Bank of America, who after 4 months of trying to get a loan modification so I can continue to live in my hi-rise condo told me "NO" twice, once from their internal "Loss Mitigation" division who said I don't have enough income relative to my expenses to modify, and then from their "Obama Modification Plan" division because the bank had not sold my 2nd TD to FNMA, thus I don't qualify, clearly the world I am living in is not improving.
I only wish the "spin machine" of Wall Street would turn into a "truth machine," but I guess truth, integrity, transparency, etc. are not in our best interests!!!
All I can say is that I went to the Tortugas. I also viewed Mudd's hole-of-a-cell. I also have all the literture.
Maybe your correction should be sent to them?
Regardless, I hope he can not get to the internet....
Look to the past...
Dr. Mudd attended to John Wilkes Booth. Once the public got wind of that, a series of steps locked up Dr. Mudd in the Tortuga prison in a small cell. The saying "Your name is Mudd" came from that episode... and is still with us today.
Bernie Madoff ( "made-off" with everyone's money ) may very well have bested Ponzi in notariety as time marches forward. Though it is a Ponzi scheme, it yields a "made-off" for the main player. How appropriate that Bernie carried that last name. Frankly, I'll always think of it that way.
And, like the saying that haunts the Mudd family, a saying might surface that will haunt the Madoff family. Regardless, it's that public perception that keeps them in prison.
There's more to the Mudd story than his imprisonment, but it's too detailed to put here (and I've forgotten most of the details!)
Hey, it's just "funding" ! We underfund... we overfund... we find ways around 'funding' altogether! There's no money Court, its just funding! No one knows how to print 'funding' so we just write about it, worry about it, make loans for it, and hope that the public never equates its consequences to "real money".
I understand. But, do you consider the window dressing pressure on the market thru quarter end? And the lack of that pressure when the month flips to July?
"Published Rebuttal" was my shorthand for 'a different point of view".
A way asround the 'compensation' for the obvious absurdity of that article would be to copy/paste but NOT to link?
Then again, I'm only Argentine when I'm incognito.
.. by the by... I caught that now-familiar dig towards Fox. You reallllly don't like that station. What to do if the REAL Argentine bombshell gives them exclusive rights to the story? Assuming you've blocked the channel, we'll tell you about it!
Mike did too! This is where I start watching closely.
The Weekly Gann (marking the close of each week) showed 6/26 plus or minus one week. That meant that the turn could be last Fri 6/19, this Fri 6/26 , or next Fri.
We were on the 'up' in the Dow for weeks moving into last week. On 6/12, the Dow closed @ 8729.26
Last Fri (6/19) it closed @ 8539.73 ( a weekly 'down' )
We are now at 8472.40-- even with today's rally. If we don't exceed last week's close, the weekly chart will show two weeks moving down. That would confirm the Gann turn.
Why I'm watching this closely: Either the turn was last Friday.... or.... (as Mike suggested), the turn could be this Friday if the market rally's tomorrow & exceeds last Friday's close. Then... drumroll... it's up to the first weekly close in July to really see if the Gann signal is valid this time.
And what goooooood newspaper would let a rebuttal like this get printed???? LOL!!!!
What's important is the SF Chronical story. Not sure I even like the idea; then (again) I didn't get a say!
Does this mean we can publish our positions on different issues in the guise of a news story? We would get paid? Is this good news for our future pocket books?!! (I can't stop laughing, sorry)...
Fox is suing for details on everything they've done with the money. We'll see how this goes, no?
It's not blue cheese... green cheese... it will now be Swiss Cheese !
More on "you can't make this stuff up"...
OT: On Oct 8th, we will detonate a bomb blowing a five mile crater into the moon. Nasa believes that water exists at the poles... gonna try to find it... we can see the explosion with a high powered telescope. Here's the official news:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/06/17/MNJ41887O2.DTL
And here's the opposition... you can't make this one up either!
http://www.examiner.com/x-2912-Seattle-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m6d19-NASA-moon-bombing-violates-space-law--may-cause-conflict-with-lunar-extraterrestrial-civilizations
This makes me sick. You can NOT expand a debt ridden economy with more debt.
Here's what hit my mailbox today. A classic example of over-leveraging, over taxation, and generous benefit plans. If this assessment is true (and I welcome any comment that brightens this picture of my home state), then it should be read by everyone.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
California Collapsing
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 06-22-09
Money and Markets
Washington and Wall Street seem to be treating California as if it were a sideshow in the financial circus of these turbulent times. It's not.
California is home to the largest manufacturing belt in the United States and to Silicon Valley, the nation's largest high-tech center.
California is America's most populous state with 38 million people. Its GDP of $1.8 trillion is the largest in the U.S. Its economy is bigger than those of Russia, Brazil, Canada, or India.
And it's collapsing.
Major California counties are ground zero in the continuing mortgage meltdown:
Los Angeles County with 5.32 percent of mortgages 90 days past due … Monterrey County, 8.02 percent … Imperial, 8.13 … San Bernadino, 8.66 … Madeira, 9.21 … San Joaquin, 9.53 … Riverside, 10.2 … Merced, 10.57 … and more!
California's inventory of foreclosed homes is skyrocketing. Home prices are plunging. And the impact of surging unemployment is just beginning to show up in the data …
Worst Unemployment in 64 Years
The state's unemployment rate has surged to 11.5 percent, the worst since World War II. Last month, California lost 68,900 jobs. And since July 2007, it has lost 859,000 jobs, including 739,500 just in the past 12 months.
Even if the economy recovers, an unlikely scenario in my view, economists agree that California will continue to be slammed by layoffs, at least through the end of this year and probably well into 2010.
And even assuming a national recovery, UCLA's Anderson Forecast projects an average unemployment rate of 12.1 percent from this fall through next spring. What about without a national recovery? California's jobless could go beyond 15 percent.
Worse, if you include part-time workers seeking full-time work plus workers who have given up looking entirely, it could reach 25 percent, exceeding the worst national unemployment levels of the Great Depression.
"Our wallet is empty. Our bank is closed. And
our credit is dried up."
These are not the words of a Dr. Doom in New York or a forlorn banker in Georgia. They represent the confession of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger before a rare joint session of the California legislature … and with no exaggeration!
The state faces a stunning $24.3 billion budget deficit, even assuming no significant deterioration in the economy from this point onward. And the state has lost virtually all hope of President Obama declaring, "California is too big to fail."
California State Treasurer Bill Lockyer tried to make that argument to Washington, and did so with great vigor. But he was rejected.
After the long line-up of failed companies with hat in hand in recent months — on the steps of Congress or the White House lawn — some folks in government finally appear to have learned how to just say "no."
"You're on your own," is the message from the president to the governor. "Beyond your share of the stimulus package, that's it! No more!"
Result: The inevitability of massive state cutbacks, including large numbers of state jobs getting axed — all while the California jobless rate is already 11.5 percent.
How many state jobs are in jeopardy? Right now, Schwarzenegger is proposing laying off 5,000 state employees, as well as slashing education and social welfare programs. But the Anderson Forecast projects that Schwarzenegger's budget cuts will eventually result in 64,000 job cuts from state government plus countless private-sector and local government jobs.
Massive Downgrades Coming
California's credit rating is already the lowest among all U.S. states. But with Moody's, S&P, and Fitch still greatly influenced by massive conflicts of interest, it's not nearly low enough.
And sure enough, on Friday, Moody's tacitly admitted as much, announcing that it may have to cut California's rating by several notches in one fell swoop!
Standard & Poor's put California on watch for a possible downgrade a few days earlier. Fitch did the same May 29.
The big problem: Once downgraded, California's rating is likely to fall below the minimal level legally required for most money market funds, forcing these funds to dump California paper posthaste.
Moody's wrote:
"If the Legislature does not take action quickly, the state's cash situation will deteriorate to the point where the controller will have to delay most non-priority payments in July. … Lack of action could result in a multi-notch downgrade."
But lack of action is precisely what Sacramento is now becoming most famous for. In fact, in their latest scuffle, Democrats proposed a budget that would raise $2 billion from cigarette taxes and oil companies. But the governor promptly vetoed the plan. So now Sacramento is in a new, escalating battle over the deficit just weeks before the state is expected to run out of cash to meet payroll and other bills.
State officials continue to insist that a state default is unthinkable … much like GM executives said their bankruptcy could never happen.
In my view, there is a very HIGH probability that California will default. It's obvious its debt merits a junk bond rating from every Wall Street rating agency. And it's equally obvious that the ratings agencies are artificially inflating the rating, stalling downgrades, and grossly understating the risk to investors.
My recommendations:
1. If you wait for Moody's or S&P to act, it could be too late. Even if you can't get what you might consider a good price, sell all California paper now!
2. Seriously consider dumping all tax-exempt bonds. I know the income is better than equivalent Treasuries. But if California defaults, it could set off a chain reaction of bond price plunges and defaults throughout the municipal bond market.
3. Don't underestimate the impact California's depression is having — and will continue to have — on the rest of the U.S. economy. At $1.8 trillion, the state's GDP is so large, any further deterioration could wipe out every so-called "green shoot" in the national economy seen to date.
4. Stay safe, with a big portion of your nest egg in cash, tucked away in short-term Treasury bills … and with a very modest portion in gold, as an insurance policy against a dollar decline.
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
Yeah... thx from me too!
This is probably the scariest article you've ever posted... it adds to the alarm bells of your post# 50151.
Worse, the dilution (in itself) causes market downturns merely to revalue the diluted shares. There is no other probable outcome... regardless of issues on the table today.
The only reversal is via buyback of outstanding shares.
Really, Court, this article has shaken my nerves. How can anyone say "this time its different"? They have stats that can't be ignored.
Bloomberg reported this morning that the two Japanese men caught at the Italian/Swiss area had 134 billion in bearer bonds hidden in the "false bottom" of their suitcase. There are only 100 billion bearer bonds outstanding (not turned in... in a variety of increments... probably NONE of which say "one billion"). So... they counterfeiters surpassed the level outstanding with their hefty 134 billion by 34 billion! Such a mistake, no??? LOL!
They also stated that the Treasury bearer bonds are issued electronically now... this should not be the "next" counterfeiters windfall..
Now, the flipside... Wonder if we're being told the truth?
There will be a push to move the short term into longterm debt. They merely have to move <1yr debt to a comfortable 3 or 3+ year debt to make the next 8 qtrly stmts fly. Wonder what they'll do?
Hmmmmmmm....
Build up TV appearances: keeps all folks in television employed. Say... oh... 75,000 jobs.
Fly everywhere possible: keeps Airplane parts/mechanics/terminals all working. Say... oh... 10,000 jobs.
Throw money at the infrastructure: save masons/ road builders/ waterworks/ crushed stone/ steel/ heavy equipment/ etc STILL employed... but... uhmmmm... not necessarily creating 'new' jobs unless they need more help. Say... oh... 60,000 jobs. And, since one man works and 4 others watch, then it is surely 240,000 jobs....
I'll give the floor to anyone else who can help get to 600,000...
JW for sure! He leaped out of the chair, said "take that @#$!% '79 Jeep Wrangler & trade 'er in!" Then, he wanted to go to the scrap yard & buy whatever cars could still be started (smokin' but started!).
You two would have a great time together!!! LOL! I'll buy the drinks!
We've kept that Jeep on the farm for years. Remember? Before he bought the ATV, he rounded up cattle with it. Sparks would fly everywhere, but dang... it was a sight to see!
But then again, when he endorses this Cash for Clunker stimulus, he will bring the best of income to all those who fleece...
Prices will go higher?? Incentives fall to the wasteside?? The states get more income on sales tax via gouged pricing? And, we should visit and buy these vehicles from the people that the Government decided should still be dealerships?? Is our government going to toss all that money at their favored few? And, if so, then what's sooooooooooo bad about Congressmen, who know the upcoming gameplan, wanting to keep the dealerships in their home states?
That's BLS! (Pun intended for good humor) They did it, not Obama! But... that was goooooood Richard! Good try!
This just amazes me.........
The current stimulus plan (adopted at the beginning of the year) provides for a tax deduction if a new car is bought in 2009. The tax deduction is for state sales tax and excise tax paid on the purchase. The result should be about $450-$650 tax savings.
Now they are considering the 'clunker' stimulus. I'm not sure if this is in addition to the existing stimulus???
Regardless: Clunker is defined as getting less than 18 mpg. I wonder if that is mpg "new" or mpg "older car". Here's a quick look at what the net has:
www.mpgfacts.com
Here's the WSJ article last week:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CASH FOR CLUNKERS- Pending legislation
Wall Street Journal: June 13, 2009
WASHINGTON -- A program that would provide up to $4,500 in government-funded discounts to consumers who trade in an old car could provide a much-needed boost to the auto industry.
The "cash for clunkers" program, which cleared a key hurdle late Thursday, would allow consumers to buy a wide range of vehicles -- including large pickup trucks -- with the government money when they scrap an older, less-efficient model.
Congressional leaders attached legislation for the program to a must-pass bill to fund troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The agreement came despite efforts by several Senators to require that new vehicles purchased through the plan be even more fuel-efficient.
The program still must be approved by both chambers of Congress, and voting could take place next week.
President Barack Obama has called for Congress to pass such a program to help stem a dramatic slide in auto sales.
The proposed program would subsidize the purchase of 600,000 to one million vehicles, lawmakers estimate. It closely resembles a car trade-in proposal passed by the House earlier in the week that would last a year and cost about $4 billion.
One remaining question is where the funding would come from. Lawmakers set aside about $1 billion for the program in the war-funding bill. The remaining money might come from the economic-stimulus plan.
"We cannot wait any longer to pass this legislation," said Rep. John Dingell (D., Mich.). "Every day we put it off, auto sales are depressed further."
The program was heavily supported by U.S. car makers, which argued that the Obama administration's auto-industry restructuring must include a component to lift consumer demand.
"We are at historic lows since 1937. The auto industry can only have sales down 30% for so long," said Pete Lawson, Ford Motor Co.'s top lobbyist in Washington.
Similar programs in Europe helped boost car sales. Proponents also argue the program will drastically reduce emissions of gases blamed for global warming.
Critics of the measure, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D., Calif.) and Sen. Susan Collins (R., Maine), contended the program could provide vouchers toward the purchase of gas-guzzling SUVs such as the Hummer H3.
But Democratic leaders came out strongly for the House bill, blunting criticism that it was the pet project of the auto industry.
Under the measure, trade-ins would have to get no higher than 18 miles per gallon and have been built in 1984 or after.
A $3,500 voucher would be issued for the purchase or lease of a new vehicle that gets at least 22 mpg. The voucher would increase to $4,500 if the new vehicle was 10 mpg higher in fuel economy than the trade-in.
Vouchers would be limited to vehicles costing under $45,000. The standards would be looser for light-duty trucks.
Write to Josh Mitchell at joshua.mitchell@dowjones.com and Corey Boles at corey.boles@dowjones.com
It's by design. And, in a free thinking society, it can be unhealthy.
He also said he would create 600,000 jobs. Thus, ga-billions in stimulus.
Then, he said he would create or 'save' 600,000 jobs.
Fact?
January 2009 Unemployed: 11.6 million
May 2009 Unemployed: 14.5 million
Top down solutions, IMHO, will never work. So far, that seems to be the case.
And more clips.. bearish, but worth the read.. (has Bill Bonner ever been bullish?!! LOL!)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This morning, we got a call from a reporter. "How long do you think this rally will continue," she asked. "Why do you think it won't last?"
"As to the first question, we have only an intuition...based on very few historical precedents. When you get a crash as big as we had until March...you can expect a rebound for 3-6 months after. The current rebound is now almost exactly 3 months old. By our guess it could run 3 months more...which takes it to September. But it's very dangerous. If you're playing this rally, be sure to use tight trailing stops...the next leg down could be worse than the first. Remember, after the Crash of October '29 the market rallied until the following May. Then, it went down. And it didn't bottom until 1932.
"As to the second question...why can't the rally become a real boom?...the answer is very simple. Debt is either expanding. Or it is contracting. When it gets to an extraordinary high...it tends to go down. Because it can't go up any more. That's where we are now. Since consumer debt can't increase - and since consumer incomes are definitely not increasing...especially not in Britain and America - there is no way that a consumer economy can expand. Since it can't expand, it must contract. You can't have a boom in a consumer economy when consumer credit, consumer incomes, and consumer spending are all going down. Forget it."
This from DReckoning... I didn't know the last three paragraphs...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"The much hyped 10-year note auction Wednesday got a lukewarm reception from global buyers. As you can see, when the auction began at 1 p.m., investors quickly demanded a 4bps hike in the underlying yield - according to Morgan Stanley, the biggest markup at an auction's outset since May 2003.
"That helped bump the yield on the 10-year as high of 4.0%, its highest since October. Traders definitely made themselves heard - worries about debts and deficits in the US are back in the spotlight. But we wouldn't say it was in re-engage vigilante fashion. 4% is a point of historic buying support for the 10-year... it'll capture our interest again when that level is tested.
"And what a coincidence... the very day of this highly anticipated bond auction, Russia and Brazil both announced they'd soon be selling $20 billion in US Treasuries in exchange for IMF bonds.
"It's a smart move... each nation gets to diversify out of the dollar (the IMF will pay these bonds back with a basket of global monies) and send a clear signal to the US government. But their leaders can hide behind altruistic intentions: "This support is important to help end the international financial crisis," said Brazilian finance minister Guido Mantega. Since the money will go to the IMF's emergency fund, Brazil and Russia get to look like generous, globally cooperatave players... even if their only intention is to get the hell out of US Treasuries.
"Coupled with India and China's recent call to sell US bonds for IMF paper, that's $80 billion in US debt to be sold... just what the struggling bond market needs."
Hey guy... love this title at Mises today:
"Dead Bank Walking"
http://mises.org/story/3507
Not sure; take the case of SURG lately...
If you look at the millions of shares held by mutual funds and institutional funds, this stock should stay stable. It's average daily volume is minisule.
But, like they say, "two fools trading raises all ships", the stock moved up 10% two days in a row with light volume (the two fools trading). All ships rose.
You might be right about online trading, but I think even a commercial desk could make this happen too. I'm almost positive that if the volume were light and the price was stair stepping down, a heavyweight holder might step in & stop the play.
But, your graph is an index. That takes alot of online to affect, no?
Here's the quick & dirty as to what I would immediately do: I would throw out all dates from 12/29/1999 thru 12/18/2000. Those dates represent massive bubble popping of the index which encompassed the bubble (Naz).
That would leave us with early dates (tandem markets) and later dates (tandem markets). It's clear that the conclusion would be incredibly revealing as all markets, tandem in the later years, are bubble bursting simultaeously.
This is what (once the other dates are removed) it would look like (by the by... THANK YOU):
Performance 30 days later
Date/Time Close Nasdaq S&P500
05/07/1996 1182.67 -0.29 3.71
05/24/1996 1247.80 -7.55 -3.50
01/11/2001 2640.57 -12.58 -4.46
01/18/2001 2768.49 -23.51 -8.44
02/23/2001 2262.51 -23.96 -9.43
04/20/2001 2163.41 -0.35 1.94
05/03/2001 2146.20 -5.49 -2.74
05/22/2001 2313.85 -10.10 -6.88
10/24/2007 2774.76 -2.37 -0.56
05/05/2008 2464.12 -0.26 -4.02
05/15/2008 2533.73 -8.61 -10.20
08/11/2008 2439.95 -11.75 -8.97
08/27/2008 2382.46 -30.95 -29.00
09/05/2008 2255.88 -24.14 -24.29
10/06/2008 1862.96 -20.45 -19.50
11/04/2008 1780.12 -11.28 -10.08
06/05/2009 1849.42 NA NA