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That should read overvalued
Dew
Given the sell off in enta today,and announcement that they are terminating there antibiotic program to put all there resources in to hep-c space,would you be a buyer of the stock at these levels.
I tend to remember months ago you had mentioned 42 pps as a price that you thought was still prudent based on your 70+ valuation.
I know you had mentioned you are waiting for approval and labeling and pricing before updating you valuation model.with that being said is there a scenario where there regimen is approved and you see the stock either fairly or or revalued.
Interested in you thoughts.
Dew
Can u speak regarding Patrick soon- shiong company nant health,and if u see it as a competitive threat to foundation medicine or will just shine more light on the future of personalized medicine.Also, do you see any risk of Illumina pulling back selling its sequencers to companies such as fmi or nant health and becoming a big player on its own?
Always appreciate your comments.
dew
do you attribute the almost 20% decline in fmi over last 5 days to disappointment over the number of tests performed in 3rd qtr and/or projections of tests moving forward?
and on enta..with approval baked into the price,what will it take to see a pop in the stock.is it a matter of the analysts upgrading there expectations of the abbv/enta HCV market share from 15-20% to 35-40%?
And if they don't get a 12 week label for cirrhotic patients do you think we will see a downturn in stock price,or is that news not expected to occur?
always appreciate your input.
dew
Just reread your fmi valuation model from august and you state that fmi has quite a bit of buyout via in the price.what unforeseen event would have to take place for that vig to somewhat disappear?
Do you think the number of tests you outlined 40k in 2014 and 60k in 2015 is still on track?
Always appreciate your comments.
Dew..can you respond to the following: if gild regimen with cirrhotic past failures without the use of ribavarin show a similar SVR rate as do abbv/enanta regimen in turquoise study with the use of ribavarin..how can that be viewed as a positive if ribavarin can have such harsh side effects
I believe you have talked about this in the past but can't find your response.
Thanks dew..is there any news that can come from this conference that is potentially market moving for enanta?if so, which presentation should we be most interested in seeing data from.
Dew
Was looking to you to comment on the ACHN news release this morning and what effect it may have on Enta.headlines seem quite impressive.
dew do you have a investment thesis for RPRX.Seems oversold to me
dew
agreed with the vc selling.also,when you take into account the $3 rise in ops yesterday not as bad as it looks.also trades somewhat thinly so moves do seem exaggerated on both sides.i happen to add before close and will keep some $$$ on the sidelines if it tests its 200dma
have enjoyed this board for about a year.extremely informative.thanks!!!
dew.
do you attribute the almost 10% decline to the abbvie collaboration announcement yesterday?
seems excessive.
can we expect to see a revised valuation model shortly? or are you waiting for approval/label/pricing
dew
it looks like "worst luck" valuation is close to what the market is saying.Hard to believe we are going to see the stock rise to over 70pps by launch as your valuation indicated.Your estimates of 38% market share is so far off from most analysts of high teens market share.
Why are you so much more bullish than most of the analysts?Would be interested in seeing a updated valuation model based on loss of novartis deal and lower royalty share than you originally indicated.
as always thanks for sharing your thoughts
Dew..do you have a investment opinion on ESPR.i had thought you had mentioned it in a positive way a couple of weeks ago
totally agree..thanks to ariadough don shimoda and biomaven for all their informational posts.
so if you were not in the stock during its meteoric rise a couple of years ago you just have to wait for the company to catch up with the lofty valuation that is assigned to it. 3+ billion market cap with 60-70 million in revs for year 1. its gonna take a bit to get there but we will get there...patience is needed for epic trial as well as additional time/data for 113.
large pharma has taken notice and will pounce when the time is right.they dont mind paying higher prices..the science will win out
my belief is that we need to close above 20-we traded above 20 intraday last week but closed below that level
Doug. All your posts are greatly appreciated...we have tested 16 pps 5 times in 4 months..once we break 20 it's off to the races...lets hope exceeding rev expectations gets us there shortly
the market cap is in excess of 3 billion..they have taken notice
how many here think they will exceed 80 mill in revs this year...stock should start to reflect that higher than estimated number very shortly.
can anyone do a projection based on the script#s??
seems to be a very achievable number
ample and bio researcher...the best comparison i can make is too the company onyx pharma...they have a drug nexavar partnered with bayer thats doing north of a billion dollars...they have a drug krypolis that was approved a year ago thats doing did 45 million in sales in its 2 quarter after launch and expected to do sales similiar to the forecasts to what is expected from ponatinib. this drug like ponatinib is unpartnered. they then have a 3rd compound stivarga partnered with bayer that did sales of 40 million in sales last qtr of which they get a 20 % royalty
all 3 drugs are forcasted to do between 1-2 billion dollars with tremendous growth.
ariad is several years behind what onxx has accomplished.they have ridaformilius which we should all agree has a very little chance of commercial success that is partnered with merck.they have ponatinib --unpartnered that is forecasted to do similar numbers to krypolis and they have a wild card in ap 26113 that may turn out to be a huge success but is somewhat early to tell.
so they are several years at least away of what onyx has accomplished as onyx will be doing over 600 million in sales/royalties this year.and forecasted to do close to a 900 the following year.
so when comparing valuations its my feeling that it will take 3-4 years for ariad IF they execute fully on their pipeline to achieve a 7 billion + market cap.so after further dilution that would put the stock at about 35 in a couple of years. the easy money for the time being has been made hence why i sold 80% of my holdings.my belief in the science gives me a 75% confidence rate that 113 will be approved and become their 2nd billion $$$ drug.
so overall im extremely bullish on ariad..but the markets work in funny ways and the stock action over the last several months tells me we test a 2 billion valuation before we head higher...im happy holding and adding more if we test that 2 billion market cap(11-13)...wish you the best of luck..as we are both hoping for similiar outcomes...just hope you have the stomach to add more at lower levels rather than panic and sell.
enjoy!!!!!!!
i
im done going back and forth with you..i hope your correct..experience tells me your not and the stock will go to 11-13 before it goes to 20.
enjoy the weekend!!!
no need to help me..i've owned this stock for 10 years..sold 80 percent of my position between 15-20 last year..have made life changing money in this company. i am a believer in their science.
but the market reacts in funny ways as seen by the stock decline from 25 to 16. why did it decline? there was no bad news that im aware of.
as i said before there are excesses on the upside(25 per share) and downside(it can go to 11)
if good news continues regarding ponatinib(confident it will) and 113(hopefully it will) we will have a huge winner on our hands.
but before that there is a lot of time for stock to go to 18-19(because as you say ASCO)and back to low teens or lower as success of 113 is anything but a certainty.
maybe im just taking a longer term view of the company than you are. we both own the stock
no need to help me..i've owned this stock for 10 years..sold 80 percent of my position between 15-20 last year..have made life changing money in this company. i am a believer in their science.
but the market reacts in funny ways as seen by the stock decline from 25 to 16. why did it decline? there was no bad news that im aware of.
as i said before there are excesses on the upside(25 per share) and downside(it can go to 11)
if good news continues regarding ponatinib(confident it will) and 113(hopefully it will) we will have a huge winner on our hands.
but before that there is a lot of time for stock to go to 18-19(because as you say ASCO)and back to low teens or lower as success of 113 is anything but a certainty.
maybe im just taking a longer term view of the company than you are. we both own the stock
thats ridiculous..at asco they will be only giving dosing for the phase 11 for 113 and info we all know regarding ponatinib..all im saying is that at a 2 billion valuation in a so so market it would be fairly valued..the real info for 113 will be in october and into next year.
dont get me wrong..ponatinib is the real deal and the market had priced it in prior to approval..113 will be the next real catalyst..but that is close to a year away.
will it bounce into asco..probably..could it trade back to 18-19..sure it can.
but as you look a little longer term i think we can see a 2 billion mkt cap(11 per share) over the summer...and yes it may be a great buy at those levels.
just trying to keep it real.
bio reasearcher--why cant 11 happen..it would be a good buy at a 2 billion valuation...any correction in the market(5-10 percent) and 11 will happen
this is not a sprint...its a marathon..we had excesses on the upside..you can bet we will have excessses on the downside
understood bio researcher...but 40x this year sales is fair isnt it? look almost every biotech that gets a drug approved..market starts to price differently...not only do they want to see explosive growth(hopefully we get that) but also want to see whats next and with ariad and 113 is still sometime away
im long the stock at a extremely low valuation..stock simply got way ahead of itself pre-approval(like most bios do)and market is simply bringing back to reality
ample...there is no deep analysis needed.. ariad has a market cap of 3 billion..if they exceed expectations there revs will be 70-80 million ye 2013..ap26113 is still somewhat unknown and wont be a catalyst for a year or so as data matures
so 70 million in revs and addl dilution needed next year..dont you think thats a high valuation?
hey biotech reasearcher....hes been selling plenty...thats ok....stock in a major correction all based on valuation....when data on 113 matures it will be off the races...for the meantime we all deal with the downturn and try to figure out where it bottoms...im betting on 14 dollar range....love the compant but something we have to deal with
Good call ariadndndough...but do think we will retest mid 17's once or twice before we start moving higher...should all happen in next day or 2
I do want to apologize for a prior post stating if you dont buy you should not be in the stock...everyone has different situations and that statement was inappropiate
understood..as stated before i hold a core position at a average of 3.25 that is not being sold until we see much higher prices-- and in addition i try to trade the stock
Just my 2 cents...if you believe in this company you are a buyer at these levels...if not should not be in the stock...like ariaddough believe the low was put in today
as of when 12-31-12? whose to say they will not be buyers today or tomorrow or next week
unless im wrong the data your looking at is 3 months old
the difference is im telling you before it happens not after
insiders are dumping because they have worked a long time for ariad and want to be able to see real money(instead of paper $$$)
as you can see they are not selling there entire holdings...they are doing what any sensible person would do.
look at celgene...insiders were dumping years ago when stock was less than half of what it is today
favorite longer term biotech stocks aria-pcyc-onxx
not sure if this is proper venue for other biotech stocks-but stocks i believe are heading higher in short term are snta-xoma-xnpt(quickly-as biib drug is approved this week)cers
these are not for the meek!!!!
you guys can do all the technical analysis you want...we wont see above 20.30 for a couple of months..but the next time we break thru that level we will go higher than 25.
Gonna need alot of patience.The payoff will be worth it.
lets all stop looking at short term moves and look at the big picture...they developed 1 approved drug and a 2nd on the way that should prove to be "best in class"...obviously time will tell...but will have a much better idea with ponatinib in the EPIC trial and over the next several months to year with ap26113 as more data is released.
Nobody likes to see their stock portfolio go south but only temparary.My belief is that low to mid 18's is good support.
Smart money is buying..scared money is selling!!!!
sorry about that...have strong feelings about ariad