Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[stuartscott8900]

ample and bio researcher...the best comparison i can make is too the company onyx pharma...they have a drug nexavar partnered with bayer thats doing north of a billion dollars...they have a drug krypolis that was approved a year ago thats doing did 45 million in sales in its 2 quarter after launch and expected to do sales similiar to the forecasts to what is expected from ponatinib. this drug like ponatinib is unpartnered. they then have a 3rd compound stivarga partnered with bayer that did sales of 40 million in sales last qtr of which they get a 20 % royalty

all 3 drugs are forcasted to do between 1-2 billion dollars with tremendous growth.

ariad is several years behind what onxx has accomplished.they have ridaformilius which we should all agree has a very little chance of commercial success that is partnered with merck.they have ponatinib --unpartnered that is forecasted to do similar numbers to krypolis and they have a wild card in ap 26113 that may turn out to be a huge success but is somewhat early to tell.


so they are several years at least away of what onyx has accomplished as onyx will be doing over 600 million in sales/royalties this year.and forecasted to do close to a 900 the following year.

so when comparing valuations its my feeling that it will take 3-4 years for ariad IF they execute fully on their pipeline to achieve a 7 billion + market cap.so after further dilution that would put the stock at about 35 in a couple of years. the easy money for the time being has been made hence why i sold 80% of my holdings.my belief in the science gives me a 75% confidence rate that 113 will be approved and become their 2nd billion $$$ drug.

so overall im extremely bullish on ariad..but the markets work in funny ways and the stock action over the last several months tells me we test a 2 billion valuation before we head higher...im happy holding and adding more if we test that 2 billion market cap(11-13)...wish you the best of luck..as we are both hoping for similiar outcomes...just hope you have the stomach to add more at lower levels rather than panic and sell.

enjoy!!!!!!!



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