I always visit this anavex board for funzies, to see what KUND and Doc 238 are saying, revealing this money laundering scam "company." It is not a company, it is a scam thing.....and of course to see Bas and Georgie hyping, trying to get their trading accounts back, which trust me, they will never do. They hung themselves, with their scam trading schemes the past year.....or more. ....trying to use a message board to entice newbies to put their money down, and then trade out.
and to see these endless other knuckleheads, like maryland crabs in the basket after a long day on the Chesapeake, or its tributaries, scuttling amongst themselves at the bottom of the barrel. Scuttling on top of themselves and their ilk. ]
With a scam stock and company, which has nothing but a record of failure in every trial, with a slop in the bottle solution, which they call a drug. It is not a drug. it is slop in the bottle.
They don't know enough to come in out of the rain. Grown men too!

This transcript is all gobble-degook. He is spewing permutations of how many angels he says will dance on the head of a pin, to self important men hoping to keep a dream alive. The drug does not work, face it, The company has money, they all know that, so everybody on salary is gonna get paid. But there will be nothing else, no approvals on anything. His endless jerking around of people with grand schemes and different plans working in Australia, Europe and America is all wish fulfillment. If it worked, everybody would have know many years ago. Endless spin to keep a dream alive. To the traders on this board trying to hook newbies, so the newbies lose money here, just as the traders have done over the many years.

You are one of the very few posters here who was a born again anavex long, but who saw it was all a scam and that their candidate does not work, nor does their management. Most just go away from this board, but you have stayed as a beacon and warning for newbies who might lose all their money by investing in this company, which has nothing, just a website and a listing, and a bunch of promotions and conferences, but no product. The company should declare itself over, and split up their cash and send it back to the shareholders, and permit the goofies here to move on with their lives. Their slop in the bottle does not work. It is not effective, but it is safe. Spring water is also safe. They are selling a dream to a bunch of elderly men who are so very vulnerable.

raise your hand if you have been adding all the way down from 22 bucks? Raise both hands if you have been adding at 29 to 22? Imitate being financially fleeced at gun point. There is no compelling evidence that blarcasemine is effective enough to help any cns condition. And because the amoeba effect, I mean the placebo effect lasts up to two years in parkinsons and alheimers, it is probably questionable the drug has ever helped (and maintained its help), in a single trial patient of the roughly 600 total dosed trial subjects in the past dozen years. AND it is not just that the effect is either non existent< ineffective< and temporary< it is that the entire theory in this area of medicine is completely without a scientific basis> The notion that you can give a human a medicine which will restore the central nervous system is fanciful. The core CNS is not like the other organs of the human body, which compared to the CNS, are akin to bricks and mortar, whereas the processes of the CNS by comparison are like the Cern nuclear particle reactor or the JWS telescope. The whole theory of what anavex proposes is spun out of thin air. It is far more probably that there will be no drug such as is proposed by anavex, which will be effective over the next century, or two or three or 500 years. Which is why there are only a half dozen approved FDA drugs and none of them really work at all. After hundreds of candidates...THE whole theory of medicine or theories of medicine in the cns area is without a sound basis whatsoever> nobody and nothing can materially assist a damaged mind: the drug companies< the large one are hoping they get wildly lucky and then with pr and their influence with the Fda,, combined with dicey misdiagnosis by the companies of mild to moderate Alzheimer's in the trial group as a whole, AND DUE TO SYMPATHY FROM GOV REGULATORS, and low burdens of proof, they can get something not really helpful at all, approved nonetheless, and then start raking in the money. They can get in on the golden fleece. This whole proposal involves slippery standards, subjectivity and regulatory politics, and no objective proof whatsoever.

This was a joke post, btw....totally ridiculous post, to mess with the airheads on this board, who believe in "technical analysis." ....
and Today, anavex is up an entire 7 or 8 cents...a spectacular day, LOLCNN...and the two penny ante con artists, Bas and herr George, ...and chagrined. They issue their hilarious bulletins, hoping to con unsuspecting elderly citizens......but when a stock and company are a fraud, there is no exist. There is no exist, and there is NO EXIT>
Both of these hustlers, bas and herr george, have suffered horrendous losses, and probably been wiped out, trying to be long, with a stock which is a continuous downward crime spree. They thought it would be easy hustling dopey and ridiculous corporate and X gov. senior citizens with their nonsense posts, using social media, and they in turn who are wrong, and immoral, have been virtually wiped out. As befits their ilk. Wiped out, LOLCNN.....You, on the other hand Xena, are a very nice person, and a very good person. But to these,. you are prey they seek to take advantage of.
these 2 foolhardy hustlers and laughable dopes. they are not like you whatsoever...your drug dealer is not your friend.

some relevant technical stock analysis, the 5 year chart is of paramount importance. Most technicians prefer the 5 year chart over the 8 and 11 year, *(and even the 146 monthlys) charts that some others tend to favor.
The 5 year shows about 2 years of range bound price action from 3.30 to about 5.56.
then it broke out of this range and exploded in january 2021 in two tremendous bursts, from 6 to 15 bucks, and after a retracement, from 12 to 30 bucks.
Then, the 5 year chart shows an immediate retrenchment from 30 to roughly 19, and then after consolidating, the chart shows it went furiously from 19 to 12 bucks even.
Then, the 5 year shows that in early 2023, it broke out of its consolidation and moved from 12 to 8, a huge move.
The 5 year chart then shows a very fast powerful burst (which George and Bas both predicted btw), from 5.25 to 9.90, an incredible power explosion higher which occurred in the last couple months of last year, 2023.
Then, there was a "topping pattern" at the apex of the great 2023 surge, but like gravity, she was pulled down in feb 2024 to 6 bucks even
At Six bucks ($6.), she consolidated briefly and the last couple months, of 2024, she began a huge power move down to break $4 dollars in a tremendous impressive surge (predicted by George), to its current price of $3.69, which reverse split adjustment, and looking at 146 monthly chart, you can see that it is actually back to 90 cents.
For those of us who were in and profited back then, there is little support now except the good old .60 cent breakout move, which occurred in 2015.....This is reverse split adjusted now to a price of $2.40 cents, where support should hold for at least 4 months. If she should fail us then, we are looking at an impulse move back to the old 22 cent mark, which will mean a price of $.84 cents....
Some say it will never go that low, but you never know. There is no clear pattern in the 5 year chart at all..

How come Missiling, with all the money he drains from Anavex...how come he has never bought any shares the past decade. He bought some, 1000 shares, in giant 100 share purchases in about 2015 or therabouts. And yet, he tells us he has a cure of alzheimers. anavex.

comparing nvda to anavex. The delusionals have reached a new level of delusionality. This is a classic post of anavex. I think the mods should put it as a starred post at the top, for sheats and giggles. Should be in a book somewhere on how people get fleeced.

the Longs posting on this board remind me of this movie.
https://i0.wp.com/spoilerfreereviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/one.webp?fit=1199%2C677&ssl=1

this is all jargon, "metrics" "precision medicine." Endless jargon and BS from Anavex and its sad, pathetic longs, who will swirl down the toilet with the share price. The market which is over 5100 on the S & P, and yet this stock is revealed, from 30 to $4.24 cents. This is impossible to happen, unless the stock is a fraud stock, with failed promises and delays and gobble-de-gook HOT FLASH news releases that the market now just laughs at.
While the old codgers and Gov Workers and minioins with their social security and pension checks.........chase their dreams. It reminds me of old silver miners, penniless in northern mexico,....when I find my gold and silver mine, I will be rich! Richer than anybody around me! Rich Rich Rich, when I find my discovery. In the meantime, the world moves on...people doubling and tripling their wealth. While the people here lose 90% of their wealth. The proposed product of Anavex, Blarcasemine, does not work. DUH...can't you be strong enough to get the point? The anavex longs here, so full of themselves. Foolish people. Grab their accounts to save them from themselves. Save the elderly blowhards.

This analyst provides 3 different methods under which silver should be 300 to 330 bucks an ounce. Right now, not at some point in the future.
https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-04-05/silver-supply-crisis-what-s-next-peter-krauth

Impressive Kitco guest, who gives 3 historical methods under which the current price https://www.kitco.com/news/video/2024-04-05/silver-supply-crisis-what-s-next-peter-krauthof silver should now be at 300 bucks or actually even higher, per ounce.

Mark Cuban has said many times on Shark Tank that when a contestant (seeking to be financed) starts talking about the gigantic market ("billions and billions") that the contestant's invention will attack, he immediately thinks NO. No way am I giving this hustler any of my money. He says it is a red flag, where the contestant seeks to hustle people in based on vague "market size" representations. Look at the first page of the AVXL presentation you linked. GIANT RED FLAG.

it was a good move as avxl will make many new lows in the coming weeks and months. SCAM stock with a lot of scammers and dummies on this board. Losing all their money, even the self acclaimed traders. They will all lose it all.

I am very fond of Avxl, having pulled well over 1 million dollars from this stock. But I don't confuse myself. More by far than any Anavex long has ever done, by far by far.
I know it was just lucky trading at several points in time. 10 years ago, it went (1 to 4 reverse split adjusted) from .80, (where I bought foolishly and it turned out luckily) and the stock then proceeded to hit 13, in a wild hilarious mania (( sold my entire shareholdings at 12, where it existed for just a couple of hours, truth be told)............I then, once again, with bizarre luck, ...bought heavily in the low teens, and rode it to 30, where it balanced for 20 minutes, and dumped once again my entire holdings (which was my entire portfolio once again)...all I could get rid of. However, the market closed, and I had to dump the rest the next morning, which I promptly did at a rapidly declining price of around 26.50 or thereabouts, as I recall. I do not dislike Anavex the 4 letter world.

However, I am never wedded to anything in life. I am not a dreamer. If it turns out, after the many years, that the drug stinks and is no good, then I sell. And the goofies running the company cannot keep me owning it, nor the fatuous and low IQ challenged and the dreamers here on this board, with their hilarious messaging, and the con men, bas and george, and the dummies, who are many and who generally post several times per day, the suckers. The dreamers, the hopers, who Wall Street takes their money as if they were chumps and suckers, making fools of them.
and Why I post here is why Kund posts here, and Doc238 as well. We want to expose a fraud, first and foremost, and second, we want to be beacon's and herald of this insidious thing called anavex, which brings in older people, who have no idea of what is offered here, and who will tragically put down their hard earned money, ...buying the narrative that mushmouthed and gobblygooked Chris and his crew, concoct spinning their narrative, and never ever buying a single share.
You are not a good listener, which is an acquired skill many never attain in life. The elderlies and hustlers here aside. But Wall Street knows you very well. So did Calvera. God would not have made you and the others who post here "sheep" if - evidently - he did not want you sheered. You don't take advice well, nor do the other posters on this board, unable to understand, what Paul Newman's movie was all about, The Sting, or about being hustled.

Raise your hands, anybody who held this from 30 bucks of two years ago, to $4.64 today's price, who rode it down 85%. This giant slalom downhill. Just what about the company makes you such a sucker. All the trials are failures, and management in its announcements say they were all tremendous successes~! What does the market say, and do you have insider info that the market is wrong in its assessments? Who would fall for the endless management delays, broken promises, failed timelines, and trials that drift into the ether and the nothingness, after the company makes a "revolutionary" announcement about the safety and efficacy of its miracle drug Blarcasemine? Is it the massive insider buying that keeps you all on the edge of your seats? LOLCNN. Can any Longs take a hint?

Two questions: 1. Does anybody here really think that Blarcasemine actually work. It has been around now in testing for 14 years, and except for a patient here or there, has not demonstrated effectiveness. 2. Or is the play here slightly different: Is it to give the appearance that Blarcasemine works, perhaps with a lucky trial, and then push it through on an arcane indication, with the help of special interests groups? 3. Bonus Question: Is it the gameplan here to try to somehow get it past the European regulatory body, and then with a groundswell of public relations in the CNS community, get a magnificent "pop" in the share price, (say it goes to 35), and at the apex of a craze, sort of like a meme stock, dump the stock and make a 6 or 7 bagger from the current price, if you can just time it precisely? TIA.

Just pushing the jello around the plate. AVXL had no hard results, and any results they have released have been dicey, ambiguous or outright misrepresented. The market knows all of this, which is why the stock is 5 bucks. Now the retails are all juiced up about some article, or some conference, or some early stage trial in some new indication, where all the old trials have been failures. The drug is no good, bottom line. After 10+ years, the market knows it is no good. The people here are delusional

Where is our Dear George. He is supposed to save our share price, and has made 7000 predictions of @God Bless to the older gents here. He promised we would be bought out, and he promised another 400 times that our share price would be at least 90 or higher, much higher 300? 500? by now. I put all my money into this stock, because George said he was in constant contact with the company. Can I sue him, did he fib?

What is going on with goold Ole Anavex? What does George say? Who is George. Chumpin this week? You gotta love the guy. .Chumping the oldsters who are afraid of getting brain damage. He chumps them up and spits them all out....God Bless everybody. God Bless You all.
How about BAS? what does he say? What is he up to? it is all a maniipulation, bob darn bless both goerge and gas?

scam stock. eom. doesn't matter who they hire, the product candidate is weak and will never be approved; they are just fishing, hoping they can get something in some obscure indication. So far, after 15 years, NADA. Management is playing out the string, with its bankroll. Scam stock

It is not that management is at fault, it is just that the drug candidate is no good. It is simply not powerful enough. What is confusing is that the company has hired quite a few individuals the past couple years, sensing, I suppose that the product would at least get it approved in RETT. Now that hope has been dashed and the company is left with a lot of former government workers. This whole strategy has failed. They rolled the dice and now are taking a shot at skitzo, all other avenues have been failures.

Because IF the company has money in the bank, they should simply have already bought another drug candidate or two in a completely unrelated field. Get away from the neurology field because 9 out of 10 times, the products will fail.
But herr Dioktor M will not do that. That would be too humbling, and really jolt the share price.
But IF he announced they are completely changing the direction of the company, and have over 100 million plus in the bank, and are terminating all these new hires, I think the market would like that. This would take a man with guts and vision. But of course, you would need to have the entirely new drug candidate or candidates already in your stable. This obviously will not be done.
So the company is gonna just ride the bankroll out. This is how failed companies go.

Market Collapse this year is coming, 3600 on the S and P, per Avi Gilbert the best stock predictor in america. He says watch the S and P level of around 5040. If that is broken, it could get scary fast, but it is coming. Anavex, being one of the strongest performing nasdaq stocks the past 3 years, will surely buck the trend to Hades and ruination, for Americans. NOT. .....Yup, even better than george and the other debating and hatin longs on this board, who haven't made a single correct call in many years on this stock. Gilbert has made his followers very rich. He has the calls and track record to prove it. He is not making the call but now is on high alert. Says the S and P support level of 5035 is important but regardless....his call is 3600 later this year, but we could be just starting the slide today. DAY 1.

How is it hanging you guys? People here think some 4 page "peer reviewed (LOLCNN) paper will pump this thing higher? LOLCNN...Tards fighting over scraps, in a silly devolution, down and down and down, while they debate amongst themselves who is the smarts.....But I am intrigued with the debate so carry on.
Where is George, the Great and Intrepid Trader for more of his predictions? How about dry powder Bas, himself a marvel of profits, he says. ..with his manipulation at every turn, like captain Quig. ("they were all against me, I swear it and will testify to it.").
Where are the two board market wizards? Its maestros? It's board leaders of this brainy crew?

NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.

NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.

NEM went to 14 bucks less than a decade ago.

the whole sector should collapse on NEM's earnings, or lack thereof and thank heavens I sold. In the mining sector, as doug casey remarked a long time ago, ..most of the times you will lose money and a lot of it, on the other hand there are those unusual times which don't come along very often, where you can triple your money.....unfortunately this is not one of those times. Great Article by a smart guy who knows the sector right here.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671302-gdx-more-pain-in-store-for-beaten-down-gold-miners

GDX: More Pain In Store For Beaten Down Gold Miners
Feb. 18, 2024 11:25 PM ETVanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX)NEM, GOLD, RING, ABX:CA, NGT:CA38 Comments
Stuart Allsopp profile picture
Stuart Allsopp
6.07K Followers
Summary
VanEck Gold Miners ETF is trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, but this merely reflects the ongoing deterioration in the sector's fundamentals.
Declining profits and free cash flows, along with deteriorating balance sheets, are contributing to the sector's challenges, with dividends set to be slashed.
Weak fundamentals leave gold miners highly susceptible to falling gold prices, with previous cash crunches resulting in the GDX trading below book value, which is still 30% below current valuations.
Construction Workers Inspecting Site
SeventyFour

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is trading at multi-year lows relative to gold, but there may still be pain ahead for the sector as free cash flows remain under pressure and balance sheets continue to deteriorate. Since my last update on the ETF in June last year, the slight increase in gold prices has failed to arrest the ongoing decline in profits and free cash flows, and the market remains highly susceptible to a crisis of confidence. The latest decline in gold prices amid fading hopes of early rate cuts is a warning sign for GDX investors, and a further decline in the metal could easily result in a 30% decline in the ETF.

The GDX ETF
The GDX is the largest gold mining ETF, tracking the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Mining Index. Newmont (NEM) has the largest weighting on the index which has risen to 13.2% from 10.2% in June despite its underperformance since then as share issuance has risen. Barrick Gold (GOLD), the second-largest stock, has seen its weighting remain broadly unchanged at 8.8%. GDX's main competitor in the large-cap gold space is the iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING), with the main difference being the latter's higher concentration of NEM and GOLD, which make up a combined 32% of the index vs. 23 for GDX. This comes at the expense of a slightly higher expense fee, which is 0.51% for the GDX versus 0.39% for RING. It also results in the GDX having a lower dividend yield of 1.8% versus 2.3% as NEM offers a significantly higher yield than the other stocks in the index, with a 4.8% yield. As explained below, dividend payouts look set to fall significantly over the coming months.

Price Declines Reflect Ongoing Fundamental Deterioration
After continuing to decline despite robust gold prices, one might expect the GDX to be trading at discounted valuations, but the sector still cannot seem to translate high gold prices into sales, earnings and free cash flows. The chart below shows the gold price alongside various sales and earnings estimates rebased to three years ago. The most concerning is the ongoing decline in free cash flows, which have fallen over 80% over this period. As a result, the GDX trades at 58x forward free cash flow estimates.

Chart
Gold Price Vs GDX Sales And Earnings (Bloomberg)

Forward free cash flows are now below trailing dividend payments, which makes further dividend cuts all but certain. They have already declined by 14% on a per-share basis since their peak in early 2022, and it would not be surprising to see a repeat of the aggressive cuts seen during the 2013-2016 period as management looks to shore up balance sheets once again in response to declining net cash positions. The index's net cash position has been in decline since 2021, with debt once again rising and cash and short-term investments in decline.

Chart
GDX Dividends Per Share And FCF Per Share (Bloomberg)

A Fall To Book Value Would Require A 30% Decline
If gold miners have performed poorly in a gold bull market, it is worth thinking about what could be in store if gold prices undergo a meaningful correction. The increasingly precarious cash positions in the gold mining sector could cause panic selling in the GDX in response to a drop in gold, as we have seen on previous occasions, most notably in 2008 and 2013. During these gold price declines, the GDX price to book value briefly traded below 1x as investor focus shifted from return on capital to return on capital. From 1.4x at present, a decline in book value would result in a loss of almost 30%.

Chart
GDX PB Ratio Vs Free Cash Flows (Bloomberg)

Upside Risks Cannot Be Ignored, But Gold Would Need To Move Much Higher
The main risk to my bearish thesis comes from renewed upside momentum in gold. Despite the GDX's long-term underperformance, it still has a track record of outperforming gold during periods of strong gold price gains. If gold were to rise by 10% and this translated directly into a 10% increase in sales, at current margins, free cash flows would triple, bringing the free cash flow yield back up to 6%, which is where it was at the 2021 peak. That said, such a move in gold prices at current high real interest rates is highly unlikely, and even if it were to occur we would also likely see mining sector costs rise. On balance, the risks remain heavily skewed to the downside.

The Gold majors *(let alone the small fries), remind me of my biggest score ever, U.S. steel, which was hated and despised, left for dead. Goldman sachs assigned a biotech korean analysist to track it and she issued a sell recommendation when it was 21, driving it for a couple days to below 19. I couldn't believe it....18 months later it was 52. It has now been bought out by a japanes company for almost 49 bucks, but the higher offer, from steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs is still on the table.

Looks at irrational price movements as an opportunity to simply load up and wait. NEM for instance, make well over 400 million in cash for every 100 dollars increase in the gold price, and it is also ramping production to add almost 400 million more ounces per annum very soon. I expect in 2 to 3 years NEM to be producing 8 million or so gold ounces (let alone massive copper and even silver). The stock like all the majors is wildly undervalued, as U.S steel was for 3 to 5 years.....

We are looking at a case of the market simply disbelieving in gold mining, despite the rise in the price, its certainty of moving much much higher in the next several years, all of that high priced gold falling to the bottom line at NEM and others. Pure profit, ..the divi is now almost 5 percent. When Gold is at 3000 POG, which is a certainty, ...NEM will be 150 bucks and kicking out a 6.5 percent divi and the generalist funds will be believers and buying like mad hatters................Just like U.S. steel that they despised but then, the profits simply overwhelmed Wall street and forced them to believe and buy. NEM is at the very bottom of an incredible price quadruple and so are some of the others. It is all about massive production ounces and leverage, with basically fixed costs, to a commodity that must skyrocket and will.

The Gold majors *(let alone the small fries), remind me of my biggest score ever, U.S. steel, which was hated and despised, left for dead. Goldman sachs assigned a biotech korean analysist to track it and she issued a sell recommendation when it was 21, driving it for a couple days to below 19. I couldn't believe it....18 months later it was 52. It has now been bought out by a japanes company for almost 49 bucks, but the higher offer, from steelmaker Cleveland Cliffs is still on the table.

Looks art irrational price movements as an opportunity to simply load up and wait. NEM for instance, make well over 400 million in cash for every 100 dollars increase in the gold price, and it is also ramping production to add almost 400 million more ounces per annum very soon. I expect in 2 to 3 years NEM to be producing 8 million or so gold ounces (let alone massive copper and even silver). The stock like all the majors is wildly undervalued, as U.S steel was for 3 to 5 years.....

We are looking at a case of the market simply disbelieving in gold mining, despite the rise in the price, its certainty of moving much much higher in the next several years, all of that high priced gold falling to the bottom line at NEM and others. Pure profit, ..the divi is now almost 5 percent. When Gold is at 3000 POG, which is a certainty, ...NEM will be 130 bucks and kicking out a 6.5 percent divi and the generalist funds will be believers and buying like mad hatters................Just like U.S. steel that they despised but then, the profits simply overwhelmed Wall street and forced them to believe and buy

agreed, which is why you never invest in 95% of publicly traded companies.

Anavex: The Pediatric Rett Trial Failure Is Disastrous
Jan. 05, 2024 5:17 AM ETAnavex Life Sciences Corp. (AVXL) Stock56 Comments
Avisol Capital Partners profile picture
Avisol Capital Partners
Investing Group Leader
Summary
Anavex released data from the EXCELLENCE trial, designed to evaluate ANAVEX 2-73 in 92 children aged 5-17 with Rett syndrome.
The trial had two co-primary endpoints, Rett Syndrome Behaviour Questionnaire (RSBQ), and Clinical Global Impression-Improvement Scale (CGI-I).
ANAVEX 2-73 failed to achieve statistical significance on both endpoints.
With this latest trial failure, it becomes even more difficult to justify investing in AVXL.
We are Avisol Capital Partners, a team of medical/biotech experts and finance professionals. We lead the investing group Total Pharma Tracker, where we aim to make the science of biopharma investing easily undestandable to regular investors.
Arrows are not targeted, Failure to attack the target. unsuccessful.
StudioEasy

In my October article, I discussed the statistical basis for saying that the Anavex Life Sciences (AVXL) Alzheimer's trial was a failure. This trial of blarcamesine, the company said, demonstrated slowing of cognitive decline in a key phase 2b/3 study conducted in ~500 participants with early symptoms of Alzheimer's, including mild cognitive impairment and mild dementia. But I discussed how a faulty application of the so-called Bonferroni correction obfuscated the fact that the trial failed one of its two co-primary endpoints. While it may sound unfair that failing one endpoint makes the whole trial a failure, that's how statistics works; and that's why these are called "co" primary endpoints.

Later that month, the company published preclinical data from the journal Neurobiology of Aging that showed blarcamesine was able to prevent cognitive decline… in rats. Specifically, there was a decline in the disease biomarker amyloid beta in rats. Doubtless, this made the senile murine population a happy lot, but at this late stage of the game, when the company is already doing - and failing - human trials in Alzheimer's, I don't see what benefit rat studies may have on an FDA approval.

Interestingly, the stock nearly doubled on this rat data in the next two months. AVXL has a 66% retail ownership, and this doubling on irrelevant data is one reason I have a strict 75-25 rule of ownership, which basically says that if a stock is owned more than 25% by retail owners, that's bad news. Because us retail buyers are a volatile lot. Institutional buyers are, one hopes, less ignorant. They, one hopes, do their homework better.

That Anavex clearly understands this phenomenon shows up from their next press release - the announcement that they have "started" the process of an MAA filing. I read company press releases all day. I have never seen a sample like this. I read press releases which say that an MAA application has been filed. I read press releases which say the CHMP has approved the application. I have never, ever, seen one that talks about "starting" the application process. Yet the stock went up on this "news."

In another demonstration of the beautiful use of the English language, company management in their November earnings call said this about the timeline of their Rett Syndrome trial:

…we are on track to release this data once we have it…

Earlier, in August, they had told us that they would release this data in 2023. Now, claiming delay due to "an additional safety follow up," they said the data release would be delayed. To be fair, though, they did release this data on Jan 2, which isn't a big delay. However, given the data that was released, one can understand why the company might have been reluctant to release it.

This data was from the EXCELLENCE trial, designed to evaluate ANAVEX 2-73 in 92 children aged 5-17 with Rett syndrome. There were two co-primary endpoints, Rett Syndrome Behaviour Questionnaire (RSBQ), and Clinical Global Impression-Improvement Scale (CGI-I). RSBQ is a behavior assessment, while CGI-I is a clinician's professional, if subjective, scoring. RSBQ is a Rett focused measure that includes questions related to various behaviors, skills, and symptoms commonly observed in individuals with Rett Syndrome, such as hand behaviors, mood, social interactions, and communication skills. CGI-I is used in various psychiatric conditions, and it is a subjective rating by a clinician, often based on their clinical judgment and observations, regarding how much the patient's condition has improved or worsened since the beginning of treatment or intervention.

The molecule failed on both endpoints. While the RSBQ score showed an improvement, there was no statistical significance. The CGI-I score was an abject failure.

Here's some of the data:

In an ad-hoc analysis, using the predefined mixed-effect model for repeated measure (MMRM) method, after 12 weeks of treatment, ANAVEX®2-73-treated patients improved LS Mean (SE') -12.93 (2.150) points on their RSBQ total score compared to LS Mean (SE') -8.32 (2.537) points in placebo-treated patients. The LS Mean difference (SE') of -4.61 (2.439) points between treated and placebo groups did not reach statistical significance (n=77; p=0.063).

Interestingly, this "ad hoc" analysis only shows 77 patients, whereas the trial supposedly had 92. Even with a smaller number of patients, there was no stat sig.

In my May 2022 article, I defended Anavex against certain criticisms of another Rett syndrome trial, the AVATAR trial in adult patients. I consider myself fair-minded, and I thought the criticisms lacked basis. The criticism centered around changing the endpoint from RSBQ to RSBQ-AUC two weeks before the data announcement. I tried to lend some support to the company's explanation that while the changes were done well before the data announcement, they were not properly updated on the clinical trials' registry in time.

For the pediatric trial, however, there is really nothing left to discuss. The trial was a failure. How much of an effect the pediatric Rett data will have on the rest of the pipeline is anyone's guess, but for now, the stock has taken a terrible beating, going down losing 40% overnight.

The company did try to explain the poor show by claiming a very strong placebo effect, but their reasons sounded hollow. Here's what they said:

Although data analysis is ongoing, the early conclusion is that the placebo rate could have been higher in the study due to a slight imbalance in disease severity at baseline, across the treatment arms, and the 2 to 1 drug to placebo randomization ratio.

How slight? Slight imbalances at baseline naturally occur in every clinical trial, and can cause what is called chance bias, but a large enough population is designed to average out those imbalances and reduce their impact on the placebo effect. It is also important to understand which baseline characteristics differed strongly, because that may tell us whether those variables had any strong associations with outcome. This trial had 92 patients, which isn't very large, but a decent enough number nevertheless. Also, I do not get how a 2 to 1 drug to placebo randomization hurts the balance. I mean, this is pretty standard practice, done to actually produce a stronger treatment effect, and not meant to produce what happened here, its exact opposite.

Bottomline, AVXL becomes an even more difficult company to defend with this trial failure. While they have some cash - $149.2mn to be exact - they just have that one drug, and multiple dubious trial results. I am staying very far away from this stock.

excellent future. The next 2 to 7 years gonna be tremendous for the miners.

Gold and the Miners are set to start a major bull market to 3,000.....The jib is up.



5:36 / 19:21

bought a ton of NEM this a.m.....below 33 bucks. a 5 percent yield. as somebody on seeking alpha said, "buy the plunge." Should have materially improved earnings this year. The chinese are buying gold like crazy; if the americans decide to buy a thin slice then gold should take off. NEM did a really smart thing buying in 2023, Newcrest. I consider last year the bottom of the gold miner stock bear market; but so far, the bear has continued.....NEM is cheaper easily than Barrick, both cheaper than AEM. Holding my nose buying the plunge...the longer term game plan is that Gold hits 2500 in 2.5 years and NEM is easily over 100.

and while usually nothing changes, ...almost always true, once in a while something does change. books have been written on disrupters. Disruptive technologies. Surely Bitcoin, a direct competitor to the miners, is one of them. It is good and well to say gold has been around for 5000 years, but over that time, ...there have been things like the industrial revolution, and the information revolution, which have changed the world for earthlings and bitcoin is part of the info revolution. It is a direct competitor to gold. Far more successful by 30 to 50 fold ...it is not even a close call to put it mildlly

will both gold and the miners and the coin suffer as assets in the event of a recession...yes of course they will and that too is not a coin toss this year.

I am convinced this time is slightly different. So here are the similarities
1. the miners are making money now, but not tons....with gold at 2020, the big producers are in pretty good shape, so too the developers. Still, the macro outlook gives mixed signals. It feels very buoyant, very 1999, and as we know in 1999, that great tech internet bull market, the miners were very bad. We today have a major tech bull market in AI, and the Big 7, so we should not be shocked to see the pattern repeat. A no brainer
2. the devastating differentiator is Bitcoin, and Ethe. The market cap of bitcoin and its associated products is staggering, something that puts the mining sector's market cap into the dumpster can. Clearly, people are buying bitcoin. It has gone mainstream and even the u.s. government allegedly has "diversified" into bitcoin.....And when any 30 or 40 year old looks at the returns of bitcoin the past year, vs. gold and especially gold miners, that ends the debate. Bitcoin is lapping gold to understate it.....So the money that is anti system, ...it is an easy choice which to pick, especially with the etf's being approved..
3. So what about the miners. Well historically, the solid gold miners have received healthy PEs on the nature of 20 to 30 to 1 type PEs. and even higher than 30 as befits a bull market in the metals...; now you can see them at less 15 perhaps the very finest that is.. But in lieu of bitcoin, that is probably no longer appropriate.

They deserve as a wildly under achieving asset class something lower and possibly far lower. When Steel manufacturers went out of favor, like U.S. steel, which has a lot of mining assets, as does Cleveland cliffs, the PEs went to 2 and 9 respectively. So there is a lot of room for PE shrinkage....and there is no time soon that AEM or Gold or NEM will have a PE anywhere close to even 10. ....so this does not bode well whatsoever.
We are in a bad spot in time, and also there is a competitive product. Killed on both ends. Steel waited many years for the companies to get a modicum of respect as they all shrank...U.S. steel from over 90 to 7 at the bottom, and cleveland from over 50 to 5 at the bottom....it took many many years. as the PEs shrank as the market collectively said, I don't want to own this sector, no matter how low the PEs, ..These companies are facing many headwinds, china among them, and so too today, the miners are in a bad spot in time, the 1990s revisited, plus they too have a hot rival like china called Bitcoin, running them out of buisness.

The more spot gold can hold above 2000, the confidence in the miners will start to grow...and now it looks like the POG has strong support at 2020......We could be in a position where the miners simply start to slowly inch up as investors start to believe they can make real money. POG at 2300 and they are doing well, but at 2700 they are cash machines....I think gold at 2500 will be the clarion call. GDX explodes from 50 to 70, and so forth...

2-73 has some promise but our clinical trials have not been definitively successful compared to the pre-clinical support.

Because the entire company (and all the other alzheimers trials of all the other companies), are based on a completely nonsensical unsupportable and primitive theory, which actually is a bit ridiculous. That the brain or central nervous system of a rat or mouse is fundamentally similar to a humans. The theory is dicey on its face. The human brain is not analogous to a limb, the muscle or skeleton tissue of a human. All the other human systems are completely different from the human brain, other than that they are organic (so is a tree or a shrub), other than it is lodged inside a human. The human brain is something we have no idea how it works, nor will we for the next thousand years (probably 10,000 years ). It is engaging in 100,000 mysterious processes per second. The brain has as much similarity to the other human structures as a nuclear submarine has similarities to a large cuban savanna cigar. BTW, who said the "preclinical" (such a big word) trials of anavex with mice have any significance or are themselves statistically significant in the world of rats? It is all a clue and a prayer, let alone thinking that the silly liquid solutions that biotech companies assemble in a lab will in any way materially affect the human brain. Because somebody can rebuild a broken toilet does not mean their "solutions" permit them to build the James Webb Space Telescope. False leap of logic, motivated by money. The assumptions are absurd, so the test results of the FDA will be proven absurd. You can throw 20 buckets of paint up against a ceiling and I guarantee if you do it a million times, against a million ceilings, you will never come up with the Cristine Chapel. Try doing it 50 million or 100 million times, same result, slop on a wall. The alzheimers experimenters are better off thinking they can change the way the brain functions by "bleeding" the people in their arms or legs, the way people believed 500 years ago........