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Do you have subscription with shane? looks like fed juice is the only way in modern markets to know what they are going to do.
Exactly. don't fight the price and volume. price and volume in a chart shows so much and there is nothing to predict just follow it.
Exactly.Unfortunately fox news and social media had made 50% of the people accept overthrowing democracy and having dictatorship has acceptable. democracy is a mess and slow and it will thrive as long as people accept it.
the minute more people stops believing democracy it is not going to sustain. media and social media had made people so impatient and everyone wants instant justice and proof in videos to show their bias. anything less than that is a conspiracy. we were so close to become like those countries where coup happens regularly.
I still don't understand how this republican party became one individual worshipper.
I would look for mobile vets who come to your house. my neighbors always use that for their cats in west palm beach.
Markets have to fall 2% continuously for couple of days. then congress members will do the deal when their portfolio is big red. lol.
So true. your 60 min set up is the best i have ever seen. so simple and huge gains for swing trade.
yes. I am also expecting good rally until mid june.
This video clearly says how to read.
Around 10-13 years back, I accidentally came to this site from some forums. there were good technical chartists who used to follow this site and who are still around and use this model. His name is Matt and he used to regularly maintain this site. bradleysiderograph.com. looks like the site domain is expired some time last year. hope he is ok. there was lot of content on this site going back 50 years of graphs. it used to have google excel sheet where you can download and update the data and it would spit out the turn graphs. here is his videos explaining what it is and how it is. one can calculate by reading book but there are lot of chartists who post for coming year in 4th quarter.
https://www.youtube.com/@BradleySiderograph/featured
this is 2023 model. been watching this for almost 10 years now. it's by far the most accurate model. almost 90% aligns with turn dates. + or - 7 days. the tough part is when watching the market you would think turn date is coming but market is not showing that and all of a sudden out of the blue big news comes out and changes the direction. look how accurately it is following this year. also, trend changes is up,down and sideways. sometimes we forget about sideways trend.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2023/5/11/jqwni2023-bradley.jpeg
I am following the same data but not the same charts as yours. just the historical data after going thru 2008 crash. also the bradley model showing trend change around mid june + or - 7 days.
Yes. From around mid June is the one i am expecting big drop to end of year. expecting vix might go to 130-170. underlying all parameters are there.
From around mid June is the one i am expecting big drop to end of year. expecting vix might go to 130-170. underlying all parameters are there.
I want to accumulate 100-500 either call contracts on vix or bearish etfs or puts on long etfs. don't want to spend more than $3k. any ideas? I am looking for december expiry. vix 100 calls for dec are 0.24. my plan is to buy some right at the money and then boat load at way otm. if i am not right i will be break even at atm strikes as they are december expiry.
I thought i saved it but unable to find. will look in all drives and see if i can find it.
I have seen a very good technical chartist projecting Vix will go to around 150 this time based on chart pattern. 2008 was around 96.
yes. around 800b.
Nervously charting the end of an empire...
— Mark Harvey (@thepowerfulHRV) February 13, 2023
Government Interest Expense on US Public Debt:
Treasury spending on interest payments to service it's debt has surpassed the 2022 defense budget of ~$722 billion.
Unless the Fed reverses course and lowers interest rates, spending on… pic.twitter.com/DzE7jKijZz
Thanks..i was just confirming...
spy. did it break second support on 60 min. i don't see that...
astro event. I think today's eco numbers is the big unexpected news. happens all the time on astro dates.
Without knowing what positions to take and when to take it's really useless for anyone. you are trying to predict future, which is hit or miss most of the time not only for you but any one on this earth.
m12 and m65 on 60 min is the simplest and most effective chart i have ever seen.....look at how we would have caught this uptrend.
So true. Why predict when price is showing. Just 8-day ema line is more than enough.
Vix dumped hard. bradley model showing strong bullish first half of the year...hmmn something is up....
Remember Jpow said this is what fed are closely monitoring...ISM services index...
ISM Services crashes to 49.6, Exp. 55.0, Last 56.5
I think 4k first before any going down....
Actually there is no need for many things. I learned from your way to keep things simple. Let's say one has 10k to deploy. if you make 30% of 10k in one instrument then it will be same as making 30% by distributing in many instruments.
What daily chart are you using for spdr etf's..Is that Rsi-2 chart. I have all your charts saved...i tried those same xl* sector etf's for a while and gave up.
Interesting...you mean low of the previous week of opex or low on opex week.
what settings you use for vwap?
I was thinking like this over the weekend. when we are focusing on short term we lose on long term picture...
Current fed funds rate is 3.75-4%. After this week raise it will be 4.25-4.5.2023 projected rates are 5-5.25%. we are very close to the peak of rate hike cycle....we might not get rate cuts soon but once the hikes are peaked, markets will cool off as better predictions can be done on valuations...
Totally agree. My hedge fund buddy who has 40 years experience and good track record told me the same. they take losses when there are losses for the year and when they have gains they do not do that....
Elections...wow..people showed up to vote in other states except florida....now i am getting some trust in fellow Americans and democracy....
fyi..imo take it with grain of salt....there is better way to play for your patterns. 1) what is your over all thesis medium to long term. 2) take positions at least a month away from the time you are expecting. 3) you can take big positions. 4) In between if you are wrong take small positions against your long term positions. 5) when the momentum is on your side your long term bets will definitely come back....6) your win percentage will be huge. 7) this way you can post your trades without being afraid of not wrong.
darn..he/she is very good...i am following. how did i miss this person on twitter. wow simple observations on cycles and yet so powerful...
Once again this guy is right on spot. Been following him as well.
I saw this on friday......vix 150? something big is coming?
ICYMI on the one-sides bet…
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 7, 2022
“Shortly before market closed, a trader bet that VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader-most likely one person, according to market participants- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000.”@business pic.twitter.com/OHkANfZLN1
vix 150? something big is coming?
ICYMI on the one-sides bet…
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 7, 2022
“Shortly before market closed, a trader bet that VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader-most likely one person, according to market participants- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000.”@business pic.twitter.com/OHkANfZLN1
vix 150? something big is coming?
ICYMI on the one-sides bet…
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) October 7, 2022
“Shortly before market closed, a trader bet that VIX could increase to 150 by late March. Through a series of block trades, the trader-most likely one person, according to market participants- bought 50,000 call options, paying $950,000.”@business pic.twitter.com/OHkANfZLN1
Yeah..even i did not realize how fed controls interest rates using reserves...here is a thread i was reading over the weekend and now it all makes sense....
The U.S dollar is wreaking havoc globally, and it's only just starting to pick up momentum. You'd have thought by now that other nations would have bailed from its hegemony. But in reality, there's no way out... 1/
— Conks (@concodanomics) October 10, 2022
After a pandemic and multiple financial crises, we've finally entered a lengthy period of rising interest rates. But while most are aware of the ominous outcomes this could create, those who know how the Fed actually controls rates will gain an edge in predicting the future... 1/
— Conks (@concodanomics) September 21, 2022
Fort Myers..Feel very sad....I lived there from 2006 to 2009. I feel It's like my home town....Love the beaches on south west florida from clear water to marco island. Now i live in palm beach county but we go to those beaches at least twice a year....
Media was just hyping about hitting tampa and storm is slow moving but euro models were pretty clear from the beginning that it will hit around fort myers and will be very fast moving....I don't think people were well prepared because of wrong hype.
Ian made land fall near fort myers. euro models were saying this it will move fast and way south of tampa. weather channel was saying land fall thursday or friday evening.