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Chuck - the last leg up followed a similar trading pattern as we've had for the past 2 months. My expectation is that the next leg up will likely come unannounced as the last did.
The third one might be my favorite where the reviewer bought it 9 days after it was packaged. This confirms NGW is selling inventory as fast as it becomes available.
While we wait for the next catalyst, the reviews in the link below are confirmation that my money is in the right stock:
https://weedmaps.com/brands/next-green-wave/products/next-green-wave-slurricane/reviews
The only thing that bothers me about NGW lately is the pace of options being granted. I understand the concept of management incentives, but there needs to be some more restraint. If not, the share price may be held back longer than it otherwise would.
In the press release on expansion, the company noted that 2.35M options were granted at $.35 which vest over 2 years. Anyone have a sense as to whether that's USD or CAD? If USD, then that would be incredibly bullish for options 40% out of the money.
I have also seen this activity on the ask and agree that it is a bit fishy. I do believe the stock is being accumulated (whether that is taking place through fair practices is up to further discussion). As I write this, there was a sale of 816 shares at the bid of .25 - seriously? Who sells $200 of stock?
Chuck, I think it’s all about the relativity of the rev generated by the respective company. In the case of NGW, we are talking about a company with a market cap of roughly $45M with annual revs based on current run rate of about $20M. A company in this sector (and profitable) trading at that valuation is dirt cheap. Most other companies would have had to print shares to fund expansion. So in the case of NGW, I do think $20M in rev (and growing) is something to get excited about.
While I agree that this is a long-term investment, I think your 2022 numbers are low. If they expect to complete phase B at the end of 2021 then that upside should come online in 2022. My guess is 2022 revs of $50-60M with net profit of about $12-14M or $.07 per diluted share. On the share price side of things, I expect $.60 by the Q4 report, $1 at the completion of Facility B and $1.50 by the Q1 report of 2022. We go to the next level when Facility D comes online at which point that should take us to the $3-4 range.
All just my honest estimates.
Bid / Ask has now built back up to .265 / .2765
I think anyone not yet invested and waiting to see price action when we reopened may have been deterred by the unexpected drop. I do not think we will be trading in the $.20s much longer. It may be a day, week or month but the next leg up is coming.
I was able to get more at .2459 ... couldn't move fast enough when I saw it dip below $.20
I wonder if that seller intended to have his limit sell in at .50 instead of .05
I do not understand why the reopen so low, but I just added 20k more shares.
I'd be ok with that as a starting point. Considering adding more.
any guesses on where we open?
They haven't announced what time it's resuming yet
news now out....
Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - December 17, 2020) - Next Green Wave Holdings Inc. (CSE: NGW) (OTCQX: NXGWF) ("Next Green Wave", "NGW" or the "Company") is pleased to confirm it will immediately move forward with expansion plans for a 50,000 square foot premium indoor cultivation facility ("Facility B") in Coalinga California. Facility B will be located on 2 acres of Company owned land directly adjacent to the current 35,000 square foot cultivation and distribution facility. When fully operational the Company will have a combined production capacity of close to 20,000 pounds of premium flower per year representing close to a 150% increase based on current production levels.
The City of Coalinga has approved the expansion and the Company will work towards the following timetable:
- Engineering and Architectural designs fully complete by Q1 2021
- Construction commencing Q2 2021
- Certificate of Occupancy obtained Q4 2021.
The Company will finance the construction through current cash flows and debt. At this time, the Company does not anticipate the need to do a dilutive equity financing in order to complete Facility B.
I agree, but it's important to see how the market reacts to their news. They've started trading and are up 27% at the moment.
Thanks Harpo. Have they indicated when they will resume trading? I'm interested in how the share price reacts to what seems like great news for them.
The anxiousness is killing me
Oh well, there goes that idea. Could still be a bigger player wanting to take a presence in Cali.
With Arizona approving recreational use, it’s possible the NGW facility could be expanded and used to source product in AZ.
To throw another wrinkle into this, maybe it has nothing to do with RWBYF acquiring a stake in NGW, but possibly a bigger player such as Green Thumb or Trulieve acquiring them both? Many possibilities and I agree with HD that we will know before the opening bell.
Excellent day! I think this will be the norm very soon. Very anxious for the press release on expansion (as Mike stated on the call - we will hear more on that before year end).
I'm pretty sure that's what he was getting at
it will certainly be a sweet day.... the question for me is whether I'll have the patience to wait for $5 or be anxious to lock in profits before we get there.
I just got another 15K shares at .252
Any sense as to what construction of the greenhouse would cost if that's the route they go? The existing facility cost them about $10M based on note 5 of the financials. They generated $1M in cash in Q3 and with the increase in sales in Oct/Nov I think they're on pace to generate about $2M in cash this quarter. So by 12/31 they should have around $4M in cash. If they continue at the current pace then that puts them at $12M of available cash by the end of 2021. I just wouldn't want them to borrow more then they need and pay that interest unnecessarily.
I just got filled at .27 ... don't like that I'm averaging up but they are executing.
$.50 minimum after the Q4 report
he will do very well if he's just a little patient.
That's my order on the bid at .27 right now - I hope someone is looking to sell some.
Chuck, there seems to be an issue with how you’re doing the math. I didn’t say 25x revenue which is how you get to a market cap of $500M, but rather a p/e (price to earnings) multiple of 25. That said, if the company is making $.03 per share annually (which I think their run rate is based on Oct/Nov), then the fair value based on a p/e of 25 is $.75. A share price of $.75 suggests a market cap of $150M based on fully diluted shares in their last filing. Coincidently, that would also be about 8x revenue (maybe that’s what you were trying to say before?).
I’m an accountant by the way so please don’t tell me I don’t know how to read financials bc I’ll embarrass you.
Good luck
Well said
8?!? That comment itself takes away all your credibility. The s&p 500 is trading at a P/E ratio of about 19. Mind you the s&p is full of companies that can only dream of the growth that lies ahead for NXGWF. We will never see sub $.20 again.
I completely disagree. I for one will be adding shares Monday. I also think the current share price is well below market value. The company is trending at a run rate of about $.03 eps based on Oct/Nov figures. At a pe of 25 which is very reasonably for a company in this sector then current value puts us at $.75 per share (usd). This will be well north of $1 a year from now in anticipation of expansion.
I should also mention they said we will have an update on expansion before year end.
Mike just said no further dilution to fund expansion. He made a reference to the cash generation of the business and other alternatives.
closed at .27 - up 1%
Important takeaway is that there were some Republicans that voted yes.... I think there's a better chance than ppl think that this could get through the senate. A red state with liberal views on MJ is likely to approve (ex. Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi & Florida)
excellent news
I grabbed more this morning at $.257.... not close to HD's holdings but I'm confident this price will be a distant memory in the near future