Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
good website...
http://www.decisionmoose.com/
martin m sighting...
Gold prices could climb to US$1200 by early 2009
Posted: April 07, 2008, 1:10 PM by Jonathan Ratner
Mining
Gold prices could move sideways in the near term and may not make much of a move in the next two quarters, but they should turn upward after that, according to Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist at DundeeWealth Economics.
“These projections may be considered somewhat bearish by some readers, but we assure them that the medium and long-term outlook remains quite bullish indeed,” he told clients in a note.
Mr. Murenbeeld said several issues remain for gold such as the market’s focus on the euro-dollar exchange rate that may “keep gold in check” when the euro declines against the greenback.
Then there is the U.S. recession. He noted that commodities, in general, do not do well during U.S. recessions, and nobody can be sure there is a complete decoupling in the global economy. Mr. Murenbeeld also sees a pause in gold and commodity prices developing as the middle of this long cycle arrives.
Both another financial crisis or a geopolitical disaster could alter things dramatically, but given the willingness of the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks to step in, equity investors may be feeling more confident these days. And this could lead to gold underperforming versus stocks in the near term. Nonetheless, Mr. Murenbeeld considers gold equities depressed and recommends investors overweight them.
Meanwhile, the large amounts of liquidity entering the financial system and pressure on other commodities should ensure that gold rises significantly higher, he predicted, adding that the supply argument for gold is becoming even stronger as mine output has not looked like it will rise before 2010 or so for quite some time. However, he added that there “remains a small possibility that miners will respond faster to the higher gold prices of recent times than they have in the past.”
Among the scenarios Mr. Murenbeeld laid out for gold prices, the “most likely” one is where the U.S. dollar index falls about seven points from the first quarter of 2008 through the third quarter of 2009. And this suggests gold prices will be in the range of US$850 to US$950 per ounce at the end of that period, he noted.
Another scenario where the dollar plunges around 10 index points during the next six quarters is much more bullish for gold, with prices expected to rise to US$1200 in early 2009.
Both scenarios assume speculative buying of gold will continue in 2008 and beyond.
Great Basin's "year of delivery" - Dippenaar
Ollie Madlala
Posted: Thu, 07 Feb 2008
[miningmx.com] -- GREAT Basin Gold is unlikely to make an acquisition any time soon as it focuses on bringing its two projects into production in South Africa and Nevada, CEO Ferdi Dippenaar said.
Great Basin is developing the Burnstone mine in South Africa, which currently has the potential to be a 250,000 oz/year gold mine, but it could be made a larger project, he said.
“This is a year of delivery, and if everything goes according to plan the market will value us differently once we start producing,” Dippenaar told reporters visiting the mine.
“The other reason for us to focus more on delivery is that we can start generating cash so that we won’t have to go back to the market to raise cash should we have to make a big acquisition,” he said.
Other precious metals like platinum were not completely off the radar screen for Great Basin, he said. “We are not about to acquire any platinum assets but we are looking at the metal from an exploration point of view.”
Click Here to subscribe to our daily newsletterThe second project is the Hollister mine on the Carlin Trend in Nevada. A North American mining company, thought to be either Newmont or Barrick Gold, is engaged in talks with Great Basin to acquire the project.
At Burnstone, Great Basin is building a decline shaft to access the relatively shallow deposit and the chances are the project could be bigger than first thought, with drilling proving additional ounces.
“Based on our exploration results, there are about 10 million ounces of gold within this area but our mine plan is designed in such a way that we can only mine up to 3.5 millions ounces for now,” Dippenaar said.
“There is definitely some potential for Burnstone two and Burnstone three,” he said, and further expansion of the mine will only take place once the company had been granted new order mining rights.
. Great Basin, which submitted its application for a new-order mining right in September, expects to be awarded the licence by October this year. The Department of Minerals and Energy has committed itself to a 12-month time line in processing applications.
“We submitted our application in September and we do constantly communicate with the DME and from the look of things we can receive our rights earlier than anticipated,” said Dippenaar.
Great Basin Gold will look at sharing synergies with neighbouring mines to cut down costs. The nearest big gold producer is Harmony Gold’s Evander mine. Dippenaar used to work at Harmony.
“The high costs are affecting the mining industry and if there is a way we can share things such as energy with other mines we will definitely look at it,” said Dippenaar.
The Burnstone project remains unaffected by the current energy crisis, which has slowed production at most South African mines.
“We are in a fortunate position because we do not consume lot of energy, for now we are only sinking the decline shaft and the vertical shaft and we are putting infrastructure in place so our generators can supply adequate power if Eskom power goes off,” he said. Great Basin is installing generators to provide up to eight megawatts (MW) of power. Great Basin draws 2 MW of power from Eskom.
does anyone have martin m "FULL" pricing for 2008 and 2009?
would like to see the full Martin M format of low, expected and high range along with probability of each...
re: Frank, what is your handle over on SI these days...
martin m
GOLD “guru” Martin Murenbeeld – chief economist for DundeeWealth Economics - has turned even more bullish since his last assessment given to the Denver Gold Forum in September.
Murenbeeld now reckons there is a 40% probability that gold will end 2008 at a price above $1,000/oz which is his highest ever call on the metal.
His predictions on gold’s performance over the past three years have been remarkably accurate although his estimates for last year ended up below what actually happened because of gold’s surge over the last three months of 2007.
Murenbeeld had predicted an average price of $674 for 2007 and that the metal would end the year at $707. As of the Denver conference his predictions were bang on but gold then took off to end the year at $836 giving an average of $695 for 2007.
Murenbeeld commented that; “I was bullish on gold but not bullish enough because the sub prime crisis happened then the European Central Bank pumped a whole lot of money into the system. Gold reacts far more quickly to money supply movements than it does to inflation.
Click Here to subscribe to our daily newsletter“However, like any good economist, if you did not like my previous prediction, well, I’m back for another crack at it,” Murenbeeld quipped.
His latest “probability-weighted” call on the metal is for gold to average $901 during 2008 and end the year at $925. His longer-term forecast is for gold to average $961 during 2009.
Murenbeeld derives his numbers from three models which look at low, middle and high price scenarios for gold to which he allocates probabilities.
His upper-end model for gold this year allocates a 40% probability of the metal averaging $975 during 2008 and ending the year at $1,015. This scenario also predicts an average price of $1,075 for 2009.
Some gold market forecasters would view Murenbeeld’s assessment as conservative but there’s a reason for that.
Murenbeeld believes the gold price may have gotten ahead of itself temporarily and could pull back in the short term. He also argues that, while gold is in a long-term bull trend, it’s possible the metal could retreat for up to a year before resuming the upward trend.
He listed eight factors driving the gold price higher. Some of the key ones are that monetary reflation in under way in various major economies while the US dollar continues to devalue against other world currencies.
Foreign holders of US dollar reserves are looking to diversify their asset bases while Murenbeeld believed that, despite having reached record levels, “gold is cheap.”
He said that, while the US dollar could stabilise or even strengthen against the Euro over the next few months, it was likely to devalue against Asian currencies, in particular the Chinese renmimbi (RMB).
“We have to break our myopic focus on the Euro and look more at the Asian currency complex. Asian countries hold some $3.2 trillion of the $6 trillion worth of US dollar foreign exchange reserves. China alone holds $1.5 trillion.
“That is a key imbalance in the world economy. It should never have been allowed to happen.”
Murenbeeld said Asian currencies were likely to strengthen against the dollar which had important implications for gold because, unlike Europe, Asian countries were large consumers of gold which would become cheaper for them to buy as their currencies strengthened.
Murenbeeld also reckoned these countries would look to diversify their asset base by selling some other dollar reserves and buying other assets such as gold. He believed this was already happening in the OPEC countries which were spending some of their dollar oil revenues on gold .
He believed gold was cheap when the price was looked at in terms of gold’s historic relationship to the price of oil and financial assets as well as in terms of “real” value.
While gold has broken through the $900 level Murenbeeld said that it would have to reach $2,295 to match its 1980 value in real terms when it last peaked at $850.
central bank gold sales
21 tonnes behind schedule, Swiss Sales through Dec 2007
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID133628337/cbgoldsales.jpg
"The mine development project took precautionary measures by installing a generator and associated infrastructure which will be sufficient to supply standby power for the activities associated with the project development for the next 12 months."
Yes, electricity will not be a problem while mine is being built, however, the key is whether electricity will be there when mine is in actual production. More electricity required when Burnstone goes into production...
i-phone Get Real...
Central Bank Gold Sales
About 15 tonnes behind, not including Dec Swiss Sales which are not included in chart but estimated at 13 tonnes. Thus, central bank gold sales are right on schedule...
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID124792195/cbgoldsales.jpg
RBC: New SA royalty bill could erode upside for gold investors
Analyst says royalty payments are another hurdle to deliver earnings in line with market expectation.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=44303&sn=Detail
Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Saturday , 12 Jan 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
The timing of South Africa's proposed new mineral and petroleum resources royalty bill to be enforced on gold mining companies from mid-2009 could imply that upside for gold investors is eroded. This comes as battling gold miners in the country would either need to have their cost base in shape or have found new higher-grade ores by this time.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Leon Esterhuizen said in a recent Equity Research Report that the South African government's third draft royalty bill would have significant impact on gold companies' earnings potential. The recently released draft proposed a royalty rate on revenue that varied according to company profitability compared to a flat rate proposed in the first draft.
Had the royalty been in effect in the September quarter, the average impact on gold company earnings would have been a reduction of 20%, said Esterhuizen.
The new royalty rate structure will be based on a formula that takes into account the profitability of a company. The rate will be equal to Ebitda divided by Gross Sales multiplied by 12.5, multiplied by 100.
Formula:
Y (%) = EBITDA X 100
(Gross Sales multiplied by 12.5)
"Essentially, the new proposal will be significantly more lenient to marginal producers, but take markedly more from richer mines."
Esterhuizen said there was no disputing that royalty payments would be "just another hurdle" to delivering earnings in line with market expectation - particularly in light of the high and potentially increasing gold price.
I like the Cheney 75 gallon coin...
http://blip.tv/file/520347
Martin M sighting...
St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- It’s no surprise that falling gold production in South Africa has led global mine supply to be flat over the past few years. In fact, the market barely reacted to recent news that China is on pace to overtake South Africa as the world’s top gold producer.
“A decline in output seems to be baked into the cake just in terms of what our models say, and our models are driven by past mine supply and past real price of gold,” Dr. Martin Murenbeeld, chief economist of the Dundee Group of Companies, told Resource Investor.
“The mines are still suffering, actually, from the period of time in the late 1990s when the gold price was so depressed. It takes an upwards of 10 years for companies to find gold and then get it out of the ground and get it into the market. We’re seven years past the bottom of the gold price, so certainly for the next three or four years we’re going to see mine supply be relatively weak.”
According to the VM Group’s “The Yellow Book”, global mine supply is expected to be little changed from levels over the past five years. In 2008, mine production is expected to total 2.414 million ounces, compared to an estimated 2.413 million ounces in 2007. Output was 2.367 million ounces in 2006, 2.411 million ounces in 2005, 2.351 million ounces in 2004 and 2.512 million ounces in 2003.
The VM Group estimates that 2008 will see a gold supply surplus of 123 tonnes. The analysts noted, however, that this surplus could easily turn into a deficit if any of the major supply and demand components changes, including global mine supply.
But many gold analysts believe mine supply is likely to remain unchanged - if not fall lower - for the next few years.
“I think there will be some increases here and there,” Murenbeeld said. “But overall, I think mine output is going to continue to be flat and possibly decline a little bit, and I mean that for probably the next three to four years.”
Murenbeeld said it doesn’t matter that China may overtake South Africa in terms of gold mine production - a lack of supply worldwide is bullish for gold.
“I’m more concerned with the overall amount of gold coming out, and it’s not clear to me that the overall amount of gold coming out of the ground over the next few years will rise,” he said. “So whether South Africa is in decline and China is in ascendancy, the question really is, ‘What is the total amount of supply that comes into the world market?’ If that doesn’t go up, it’s favourable for the gold price.
“It doesn’t matter that South Africa specifically is declining in production and China is rising in production; my concern is what is the sum of the total amount of production, assuming, of course, that all production is the same.”
According to Murenbeeld, lower production logically has a positive impact on the gold price.
“We have some formulas, a sort of simple rule of thumb that we use, that a 10% decline in gold production will tend to raise the price of gold by about 5%,” he said.
Using this formula among other scenarios, Murenbeeld estimates in his latest “Gold Update” on 21 December that the probability-weighted average for gold in 2008 will be $860.50 per ounce.
As the gold price rises, Murenbeeld said he doesn’t expect mine supply to remain flat in the long term.
“Now over time with the higher gold price, you’d expect to see more gold output. So let’s say in the second half of the next decade, 2015 onwards, you’d expect to see more mine supply, but at this point that’s a guesstimate.”
Despite dwindling gold mine supply in South Africa and flat mine supply globally, he said production is not the main issue that will affect the gold price.
“In my opinion, that is not a key issue at this point in time,” Murenbeeld said. “I’m not concerned about production, and I’m not particularly concerned about central bank supply, given that that’s locked up for almost another two years now to the end of September 2009. So I don’t think supply is going to be the issue.
“The issue is much more in the financial realm: What will the world’s economy look like, what will the dollar do, what will inflation be like, what will oil prices do, what will central banks do with money supply, to what degree will they be reflating? As you look further down, we have the great baby boom retirement and how the government is going to handle that. Will that mean more money printing?
“Those are the things that I think are key to the medium-term and longer-term outlook for gold. At some point, presumably, you will get some more good production. If the gold price averages $1,000, presumably some mines that weren’t producing back at $500, or heaven forbid $250, they may be producing at $1,000. So there will be some impact from mine supply, but I don’t think that’s an issue for the next couple years.”
Gold for February delivery ended today up $10.90 at $842.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold futures are up nearly a quarter from a 52-week low of $639.50 per ounce earlier this year.
CB Gold Sales - Updated for Swiss Sales
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID118398545/cbgoldsales.jpg
Switzerland sold 11.3 tonnes (364,000 ounces) of gold in November. Gold reserves last month fell to 37.1 million ounces from 37.5 million in October, the Swiss National Bank said on its website today. Sales were about 10.9 tonnes (349,260) ounces in October.
Switzerland has sold 3.9 million ounces, worth $3.13 billion, since the Swiss National Bank announced plans in June (see RI’s coverage) to dispose of 250 tonnes of gold before the end of September 2009 and use the proceeds to buy currencies.
Wonder which currencies? The euro has gained 9% against the dollar this year.
Also see RI’s latest update on Eurosystem central bank sales.
CB Gold Sales
Still 17 tonnes behind schedule (not including Swiss Sales), 103 tonnes actual vs 120 tonnes scheduled. That ECB sale finally showed up this week...
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID118025041/cbgoldsales.jpg
More Zuma/SA Politics
Zuma, the shake up and S.African mining
Allan Seccombe
Posted: Fri, 21 Dec 2007
[miningmx.com] -- BIG changes are coming to the South African government and it is not immediately clear what the future holds for incumbent mines minister Buyelwa Sonjica after a massive shake up in the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
The most dramatic event at the ANC’s 52nd conference this week was the election of the controversial Jacob Zuma as president of the party, ousting Thabo Mbeki who is also president of Africa’s largest economy.
Mbeki’s second and last five-year term as the country’s president expires in 2009. The leader of the party is seen as the natural choice for national president. It’s an open question whether Mbeki will resign his position earlier.
a case that can be taken to courtZuma faces the threat of a potential corruption charge linked to the convicted and jailed businessman Schabir Shaik who was found guilty of soliciting bribes on Zuma’s behalf. Mbeki fired Zuma as the country’s deputy president when Shaik was found guilty.
“The investigation, with the evidence we have now, points to a case that can be taken to court,'' Mokotedi Mpshe, the acting head of South Africa's National Prosecution Authority (NPA), told 702 Talk Radio the day after Zuma was elected party president.
There is no indication yet of if and when Zuma will be charged. The NPA has already had its first thrust at Zuma thrown out of court for being under-prepared and it has taken enormous pains to make sure of its case this time round.
Investors are taking a close interest in the change in leadership.
“There is a lot of interest, not just in terms of generic background, of what's going to happen in South Africa but I think as well what implications this might have for the mining industry - platinum, palladium, gold," GFMS CEO Paul Walker said on the Moneyweb Power Hour, a week-nightly radio broadcast.
"I do think there is a concern, I think a view that the maintenance of the status quo under Mbeki would have been ideal, but of course there's still some time to go before we know precisely what's going to happen in the post-Mbeki period," Walker said.
"The view is that the pressures will be on the institutions and the people involved in running the country to maintain as much of the status quo as possible, because things have worked reasonably well over the last eight or nine years."
As part of the titanic battle for control of the party, a number of cabinet ministers seen closely allied to Mbeki have lost their places on the 80-member policy formulating National Executive Committee (NEC). The NEC wields strong influence over decisions the government takes.
Investors must surely be breathing a sigh of relief that highly regard and respected finance minister Trevor Manuel has retained favour with the Zuma supporters and kept his place in the NEC.
Zuma is seen to owe a huge favour to labour and the left for their support in ousting Mbeki. Two of the leadership positions of the NEC have been filled by former unionists. Kgalema Motlanthe and Gwede Mantashe both served as secretary general of the powerful National Union of Mineworkers.
There have been worries the government under Zuma could ditch or substantially alter the market-friendly policies set up under Mbeki.
Click Here to subscribe to our daily newsletterZuma immediately moved to quell investor concerns and give a steady-as-she-goes message. “There is no reason for uncertainty or fear in any quarter," Zuma said in his first public address in his new position. “There is no reason why the domestic and international business community, or any other sector, should be uneasy."
The ANC is keenly aware of the need for foreign investment to address massive unemployment, poverty and crime. Its policies have generally been market friendly, but under Zuma there will have to be a nod towards easing labour's concerns that legislation is too favourable for business rather than the workers.
A large swathe of cabinet ministers seen as close to Mbeki have lost their positions in the NEC and are unlikely to retain their posts if and when Zuma becomes the country’s president.
Sonjica seems to be a low profile figure in the ANC, appearing on neither the last NEC list nor the new list, making it difficult to judge which camp she was in during the presidential battle. She is competent in her post and there's no reason she shouldn't keep her job.
Alternatively, Zuma and his allies might regard the minerals and energy portfolio as strategically important and reward it to one of his supporters. It is a highly unionised and economically important sector of the economy.
SONJICA'S PERFORMANCE GRADED 'B'
Sonjica, who was appointed to the portfolio last year, came in after a relatively rapid turnover of ministers in the position over recent years.
South Africa’s weekly Mail & Guardian newspaper, which regularly blows the whistle on corruption within government structures and parastatals, gave Sonjica a ‘B’ grade for her performance in the position during 2007.
In its widely read and respected year-end report card on cabinet ministers, the Mail & Guardian said Sonjica had won praise for being open and willing to consult interested parties.
During Sonjica’s tenure as minister the Department of Minerals and Energy has taken a tougher stance on deaths at the country’s mines, shutting down affected areas pending the results of safety audits.
Gold Fields and Anglo Platinum have both revised production forecasts downwards because of the temporary closures, but other mining houses have been affected too.
“While mine safety is the responsibility of the industry, Sonjica will have to pay greater regulatory attention to it in the new year,” the Mail & Guardian said.
“Questions have been raised about the effectiveness of the mine health and safety inspectorate, which seems to be struggling to attract skilled people.”
Sonjica’s ministry has to finalise the hotly contested restructuring of the electricity distribution industry and address the electricity generation crisis, the newspaper said.
In the past year, progress was made in reducing the backlog in processing new-order prospecting and mining rights.
The minerals and energy portfolio is a demanding one and subject to intense scrutiny by foreign investors, who want to see consistency in the way it is handled.
A leaked version of a mining charter outlining black empowerment requirements wiped out a third of the industry’s market capitalisation on the JSE in just a few hours in 2002. The government scrambled to repair the damage and later issued a much milder document after intense talks with the industry and labour.
If Zuma does become president this is a portfolio he and his allies will need to think about carefully and appoint someone who the market can trust.
_____________
There is concern about SA's mining industry after Mbeki's rule - Paul Walker, GFMS
In an interview on Radio 2000 @ Wednesday, 20 December 2007
[miningmx.com] -- INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS have some concerns about the continuity of mining policies once South African president Thabo Mbeki's term in office expires, GFMS CEO Paul Walker said.
"There is a lot of interest, not just in terms of generic background of what's going to happen in South Africa but I think as well what implications this might have for the mining industry - platinum, palladium, gold," Walker said on the Moneyweb Power Hour, a week-nightly radio broadcast.
Mbeki has been ousted as president of the ruling African National Congress party by delegates who voted for Jacob Zuma, the controversial politician who has been linked to a corrupt and now jailed businessman.
"I do think there is a concern, I think a view that the maintenance of the status quo under Mbeki would have been ideal, but of course there's still some time to go before we know precisely what's going to happen in the post-Mbeki period," Walker said.
The anti-Mbeki vote at the ANC congress this week came as a surprise to some, but Mbeki is widely seen to have squandered his support through his aloof, high-brow nature in a country where one in three is unemployed and poverty is rife.
"I think people are just taking a view that this is a little out of the expected or desired outcome, and they will just wait and see what happens in a couple of years' time when Mbeki does actually have to step aside," said Walker.
The next national elections are scheduled for 2009 when Mbeki's second five-year term expires.
Meanwhile, fundamentals supporting the gold price were intact and the price was anticipated to go higher in the next 12 to 18 months.
"We still think the price is going to be heading higher over the next 12 to 18 months, and the reasons underpinning this haven't changed," said Walker. Gold was trading steady around $800/oz on Thursday morning.
Yes, that is almost always my methodology:
1) Limit orders only
2) Mental stops
And ESPECIALLY when GBG was GBGLF and OTCBB, remember those days!! GBN AMEX trading is 100% better than what it was under OTCBB.
(Actually, maybe I should say it is 100% worse, because one could really get fantastic bargains on GBG when it was OTCBB... when you, Bill G, and I would have to reassure each other on the fundamentals, call investor relations just to make sure, AND pray it wasn't a PP --- Oh the good ol' days... so quit your whining!! and remember those LOM-Loewen, Ondaatje, McCutcheon Limited- PP days when LOM would issue a $2 target price and within 2 weeks a PP would be announced...)
DBA comments and COW US ticker
Does COW also trade in US or just on Canadian side? Really does not matter much, trades cost me $10.95 for Canadian and $9.95 for US... but let me know if I can save a buck...
FWIW, sold about 20% of my DBA today to cover my margin from buying gold stocks the last 10 days. Bought large positions in MFN under US$10 and under $11 and EPM all under the last PP price of C$1.28 including some at US$1.17. Also bought AGI, GRS and MRB.
So why the sale of my beloved DBA...? Well DBA very rarely sells at such a large premium to NAV as it has the past 2 days. See link:
http://www.dbfunds.db.com/dba/weights.aspx
I believe the current DBA premium to NAV is combination of:
1) End of year window dressing with funds buying DBA to list on their year end holdings
2) Lack of arbitrage acitivity during slow holiday trading. DBA usually trades just a few pennies/nickels up (or down) from its NAV. Believe when you see those large 20,000 to 50,000 share blocks trading in DBA this is arbitrage from someone who owns these wheat/corn/soy/sugar commodity contracts and offsetting with DBA purchase or sell for a profit. The arbitrage is the reason DBA generally trades so close to its NAV, is my belief. But these last few days, there is a much larger DBA premium than normal.
Thus, I sold a bit of DBA today. Hoping to buy back cheaper once my gold stocks go to da moon... Also, with DBA one does not get LT capgains from the K-1, this is most all treated as commodity trading and taxed as ordinary income so not viable to hold for LT CapGains is my understanding. Hope I do not have DBA sellers remorse caused by DBA outperforming my gold stocks...
COW
My description for COW ticker in US is Barclays Bank Ipath ETN...? Shows that this has been trading for 39 days. Is this the Claymore Global Ag ETF?
believe the Zuma/SA election factors will be a perceived problem for S African resource stocks. elections in 2009.
http://www.miningmx.com/radio/742717.htm
does Apple have this nifty USB gadget yet, or only the pc...?
http://www.dailymotion.com/cluster/fun/video/x3lghs_de-lusb-pour
central bank gold sales AFTER next weeks already announced ECB sale of 42 tonnes.
Central Bank Gold Sales will still be 14 tonnes behind schedule (not including Switzerland).
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID112609735/cbgoldsales.jpg
central bank gold sales
21 tonnes behind schedule, not including Swiss sales
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/shareID573529/fileID108066994/cbgoldsales.jpg
central bank gold sales
about 7.4 tonnes behind, but this does not include Swiss sales which have yet to be reported.
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/amarksp/PublicFolder/cbgoldsales.jpg
central bank gold sales
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/amarksp/PublicFolder/cbgoldsales.jpg
Jim Rogers video presentation
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v3UOLjkYNlkw.asf
here's my contribution...
cyclepro updated
http://www.geocities.com/cyclepro2/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
we play football different here in Texas...
http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3083220&categoryId=2564308&n8pe6c=2&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1
should have made you a board manager long ago.
how about a weekly update...?
central bank gold sales
on schedule
http://www.drivehq.com/file/df.aspx/publish/amarksp/PublicFolder/cbgoldsales.jpg
cyclepro updated
http://www.geocities.com/cyclepro2/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
Commodities advocate Rogers dumping dollars for yuan
By Marcel van de Hoef and Danielle Rossingh
Bloomberg News Service
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amQBwDBSDvBE
Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests Inc., said he is shifting all his assets out of the dollar and buying Chinese yuan because the Federal Reserve has eroded the value of the U.S. currency.
"I'm in the process of -- I hope in the next few months -- getting all my assets out of U.S. dollars," said Rogers, 65, who correctly predicted the commodities rally in 1999. "I'm that pessimistic about what's happening in the U.S."
Rogers, delivering a presentation late yesterday at an investors' meeting organized by ABN Amro Markets in Amsterdam, said he expects the Chinese currency to quadruple in the next decade and that he is holding on to commodities such as platinum, gold, silver, and palladium.
The dollar has dropped against all the 16 most actively traded currencies except the Mexican peso this year as slowing growth and the first interest-rate reduction since 2003 last month dimmed the allure of dollar-denominated assets.
Since the Fed lowered U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18, the first cut in four years, the dollar has fallen 2.8 percent against the euro and touched a record low yesterday. Gold rose to a 27-year high and platinum jumped to a record.
"It's the official policy of the central bank and the U.S. to debase the currency," said Rogers, a former partner of George Soros.
"The U.S. dollar is and has been the world's reserve currency, the world's medium of exchange," he said. "That's in the process of changing. The pound sterling, which used to be the world's reserve currency, lost 80 percent of its value, top to bottom, as it went through the whole period of losing its status as the world's reserve currency."
The Chinese currency, known as the renminbi, or yuan, is "the best currency to buy right now," Rogers said. "I don't see how one can really lose on the renminbi in the next decade or so. It's gotta go. It's gotta triple. It's gotta quadruple."
The yuan strengthened past 7.5 to the dollar today for the first since the central bank ended a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has gained 10.5 percent since the dollar link was abandoned.
China, growing faster than any other major economy, is "going to be the most important country in the 21st century," he said. China's gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate the economy grew by 11.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30.
Rogers also is buying Swiss francs and Japanese yen, which he said have been "pounded down" because of the so-called carry trades.
In the carry trade, investors borrow in countries with low interest rates, such as Japan, and invest the proceeds where rates are higher. Japan's benchmark overnight lending rate is 0.5 percent, compared with 6.5 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in New Zealand.
The carry trades in yen and francs will "unwind someday," which will send the currencies "straight up," Rogers said. "I'm buying the yen."
The bull markets in bonds and stocks are "over," he said. "Bonds will be a terrible place to be for many years and will in fact be going down for many years."
Rogers said he remains bullish on commodities because "that's where the big fortunes are going to be made in the world in the next five, or 10 or 15 years. The current bull market is going to last until sometime between 2014 and 2022."
Commodity prices have surged as demand for raw materials, especially from China, rose faster than producers were able to increase output. Agricultural prices have led recent gains, including a record high for wheat last month and a three-year high in soybeans.
"The number of hectares devoted to wheat farming has been declining for 30 years, the inventory levels of food are at the lowest level since 1972," Rogers said. "Suppose we start having droughts again. God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things."
He added, "I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals."
Platinum, gold, silver and palladium will "be much, much higher during the course of the bull market," he said.
* * *
Is this 1.2% of Australia land, all arable land...? Care to venture what % of Australia's arable land AAC owns? Have a map where this land is located...?
Please explain this to me... i.e. Futuris planned sale.
Company Limited (‘AAco’) notes today’s announcement by Futuris Corporation Limited (‘Futuris’) in relation to the planned sale of its 43% shareholding in AAco. AAco is currently in dialogue with Futuris in relation to the planned sale, and the Board will continue to keep shareholders updated on progress. AAco’s independent directors will continue to work at all times in the long term interests of all shareholders.
The AAco Board has today established strict protocols to ensure appropriate participation by Directors associated with Futuris in future matters. A new Board Committee of independent Directors has been formed, comprising Nick Burton Taylor, Chris Roberts, Greg Paramor and Don Mackay. This Board Committee will handle all matters relating to today’s announcement. AAco has also appointed JPMorgan as financial advisor, Mallesons Stephen Jaques as legal advisor and Cannings as communications advisor to assist the Board.
About AAco
AAco is a unique Australian business and is the only listed company providing direct exposure to the production of clean, high grade beef and broad scale land ownership. Operating since 1824, AAco’s unrivalled assets include 631,000 beef cattle, 24 cattle stations, 2 feedlots and 7,958,954 hectares of land, representing approximately 1.2% of Australia’s land mass.
Media contact:
Cannings - (02) 9252 0622
Martin Debelle - 0409 911 189
For personal use only
what is the best way to play the meats?, (other than futures).