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Well said.
"Circumstantial evidence points strongly to a Teva buyout of Biosante, orchestrated back in January or February." Why then go through the hassle of the quick r/s and fight to stay listed? Buyout talks may have ended.
NP - what is your background? Do you practice in the medical field?
That is the likely scenario; IMO, the wild card is how good will the news be? The price will pop on "good news" but may very well slide back down as BPAX carries out it's business; however, if the news is really good (GAME CHANGER) we will not see these price levels ever again - it will pop and stay there!
Yep - last year I was trading BPAX in the 3 to 3.35 range; I got preoccupied with other companies and stopped trading it ( I rather be lucky than good anytime) in December i jumped back in. The current valuation of the company is very compelling.
This is a pure r/s and as such very thing is in portion. How the stock behaves in the short term will mostly depend on the quality of news coming out of BPAX. Yes agree SA has an agenda and so far it has played out very nicely for them. They are at this point telegraphing their punches ( they are playing 100 percent the negative sentiment card with NO economics OR valuation to back it up) - so without a major money wrench thrown into their agenda I would expect further decrease in price.
Yes I agree on the fact since there is no dilution relating to this specific r/s the economics and valuations for BPAX as not changed. However, I would agree with Porky and the SA article as it relates to the psychological impact of the r/s. In other words, a r/s without news, PRs, up coming milestones/events etc.. ( an r/s NOT followed by a significant event or information vacuum - price is going down) exposes the share price to the "psychological forces of the market" - that's not a good thing for shareholders. If there is a significant subsequent event reported by BPAX then psychology is out and economics are back in. At 38 cent and if it continue to drop next week is not economics thats driving the share price its the psychology of the r/s. Long story short we need some major news, otherwise get ready to the downward slide until the real economics kick in.
Hey CT - can you comment on the atmosphir, management's body language, - did management seem upbeat, sober or did they just have on their poker face.
Is there a dial-in number?
"There is no consideration for
Libigel & Gvax in the current pps ! " Nor any other asset, other than cash. And even that has been discounted.
Burger King because of whopper returns on this .50 investment.
Wow 56% one day increase in share price - that's one hell of a technical upswing!
Let me take a valuation guess as to how of BPAX's investment in Ceregene is currently reflected in BPAX's share price - how about a big fat zero! Sorry if the attached pr was already posted and discussed on this board.
Ceregene Parkinson's Disease Study Demonstrates Long-term Neurturin Expression and Enhanced Dopamine Activity 4 Years Following Delivery of CERE-120
First Evidence for Long Term, Biologically Active Protein Expression in the Human Brain by Gene Therapy
SAN DIEGO, May 17, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Ceregene Inc., a biotechnology company developing treatments for neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's disease, will present new data demonstrating long-term, biologically-active expression of neurturin, a nervous system growth factor delivered to the degenerating dopamine nerves in patients with Parkinson's disease following treatment with CERE-120 (AAV2-neurturin). Raymond T. Bartus, Ph.D., Ceregene's chief scientific officer and executive vice president, was invited to give a presentation entitled "The Development of AAV2-neurturin (CERE-120) for Parkinson's Disease: A Review of the Challenges and Translation Issues Confronted During the Course of Establishing 'Clinical Proof of Concept,'" at the annual meeting of the American Society for Gene and Cell Therapy during the Clinical Trials I Symposium on Thursday, May 17, 2012 in Philadelphia, PA. CERE-120 is a viral vector engineered to deliver the nervous system growth factor neurturin (NRTN), which has the ability to rejuvenate degenerating dopamine-producing neurons, restoring function and keeping them alive. NRTN has been shown to safely protect and restore damaged nigrostriatal nerves in animal models of Parkinson's disease and appears safe in humans tested in four Ceregene-sponsored clinical studies enrolling a total of 120 patients, 80 of whom were administered CERE-120. A previous double blind-controlled human study demonstrated clinical benefit on several motor and Quality of Life (QOL) endpoints 12 and 18 months following CERE-120 delivery (with no measure favoring sham) and established clinical proof of concept in humans.
Dr. Bartus will present histological evaluation of autopsy tissue from subjects administered CERE-120 to the brain who later died of unrelated causes. Analysis of brains from Parkinson's subjects 1.5 and 3 months post-CERE-120 treatment revealed NRTN expression in the targeted putaminal region of the brain, but only rare instances of NRTN-positive cells in the substania nigra (where NRTN was expected to be transported following putaminal treatment of patients in order to maximize induction of neuronal repair genes). This suggested impaired retrograde transport in these degenerating nerves in these PD patients. In addition, NRTN in the putamen was associated with occasional, sparse induction of the enzyme tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) needed for dopamine synthesis, suggesting suboptimal benefit was achieved due to the limited NRTN transported to the substantia nigra. Brains from 2 subjects 4-plus years post-CERE-120 demonstrated similar, targeted NRTN expression in the putamen, but importantly now showed evidence of increased transport of NRTN to the substantia nigra. Equally important, with more NRTN in the substantia nigra, the TH response is now appreciably larger, compared to the patients with shorter post-CERE-120 time points. Collectively, these findings are completely consistent with the predicted effects of CERE-120 following putaminal delivery and further support the idea of additionally targeting the substantial nigra directly with neurotrophic factors, including the approach employed in the ongoing double-blind, sham surgery-controlled CERE-120 trial. "These data validate the clinical approach we have taken in our on-going, fully enrolled Phase 2b double-blinded study of CERE-120 in Parkinson's patients, in which we are targeting both the substantia nigra and the putamen as well as utilizing an increased dose of CERE-120. Results from that study are expected in early 2013," stated Jeffrey M. Ostrove, Ph.D., president and chief executive officer of Ceregene, Inc. "I would like to thank the families of participants in our clinical studies, without whose courage and granting of permission for the autopsy, we could not have discovered these critically important scientific facts." Dr. Ostrove added "I would also like to express our deep appreciation to the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research for their ongoing financial support of our clinical program utilizing neurotrophic factors."
About CERE-120 and its Application to Treating Parkinson's Disease
CERE-120 is composed of an adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector carrying the gene for neurturin, a naturally occurring protein known to repair damaged and dying dopamine-secreting neurons, keeping them alive and restoring normal function. Neurturin is a member of the same protein family as glial cell-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF). The two molecules have similar pharmacological properties, and both have been shown to benefit the midbrain dopamine neurons that degenerate in Parkinson's disease. Degeneration of these neurons is responsible for the major motor impairments of Parkinson's disease. CERE-120 is delivered by stereotactic injection to the terminal fields (i.e., the ends of the degenerating neurons), located in an area of the brain called the putamen, as well as the cell bodies for these same neurons, located in a different area of the brain, called the substantia nigra. Once CERE-120 is delivered to the brain, it provides stable, long-lasting expression of neurturin in a controlled and highly targeted fashion.
About Parkinson's Disease
Parkinson's disease is a progressive movement disorder that affects a million people in the United States. Its main symptoms, stiffness, tremors and slowed movements and gait, are caused by a loss of dopamine-containing nerve cells in the substantia nigra, which project their axons to the putamen. Dopamine is a neurotransmitter involved in controlling movement and coordination, so Parkinson's patients exhibit a progressive inability to initiate and control physical movements. There is currently no treatment that can reverse the degeneration of these neurons, let alone cure Parkinson's disease.
About Ceregene
Ceregene, Inc. is a San Diego-based biotechnology company focused on the delivery of nervous system growth (neurotrophic) factors for the treatment of neurodegenerative and retinal disorders using gene delivery. In addition to CERE-120 for Parkinson's disease, Ceregene's other clinical program includes CERE-110, an AAV2 based vector expressing nerve growth factor (NGF). CERE-110 is currently being evaluated in a multi-center, controlled Phase 2 study in Alzheimer's disease, in collaboration with the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study and partially funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Ceregene was launched in January 2001. The company's investors include Alta Partners, MPM Capital, Hamilton BioVentures, Investor Growth Capital, California Technology Partners and BioSante Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: BPAX).
About The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research
As the world's largest private funder of Parkinson's research, The Michael J. Fox Foundation is dedicated to accelerating a cure for Parkinson's disease and improved therapies for those living with the condition today. The Foundation pursues its goals through an aggressively funded, highly targeted research program coupled with active global engagement of scientists, Parkinson's patients, business leaders, clinical trial participants, donors and volunteers. In addition to funding more than $289 million in research to date, the Foundation has fundamentally altered the trajectory of progress toward a cure.
SOURCE Ceregene, Inc.
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RELATED LINKS
http://www.ceregene.com
Source: PR Newswire (http://s.tt/1c7bb)
I would have to agree you. IMO, everything else being equal, the R/S and the subsequent "R/S price decrease" is already built in the current share price. IMO, all the psychology of the R/S and related "black swan scenarios" are baked in and a upward correction in the near should be expected.
Nice find. The point on the slow down on the Teva royalties could have been the catalyst for the price drop from the .80s - just I thought ( the noise around the r/s doesn't help neither).
My assumption is the following - BPAX is not looking for someone to rotate tires or pump gas. I assume those 2 positions are specialist/expert positions; the talent may exist locally or they may need to hire from out of state. Bringing talent through the door will require time and effort, especially if a relocation is involved. Then 3 months after they figure out where the bathroom is they are productive ( just kidding on the bathroom thing). My point is you don't to being to build the engine after the get the green light; you want to burn rubber. IMO, management is being very prudent and starting this process as soon as possible because they are bullish on the outcome. They may have already with the FDA, may have not; why wait to begin the hiring process - they can stop that any point.
Awesome job of DD! You are definitely hooked up! The filling machine and hiring clearly suggest something is "cooking". However I would not categorize those events as proof that they met with the FDA. I believe it's an indication that things are much more positive that what the markets believes. Don't get me wrong, I believe in "drawing the lines between the dots", however I tend to be pretty cautious in this area, because as shareholders we don't have visibility to all the dots, and taking this one step further - biotech companies don't have visibility to all the dots as well ( I am referring to deal with the FDA).
I have not seen or read the Roth report, I don't know what level of work and more importantly what assumptions they made in valuing the company. I don't even know if Roth has a buy rating on BPAX. However, I can tell you target price in the world of developing biotech companies is meaningless; whether the target price is .75 or 7.50. At the end, it's all about drug performance and approval. At this stage in the game finance guys are really a waste of time; it's the scientist, biotech experts, and FDA consultants that hold the keys on assessing success.
What would be interesting is getting our hands on the report, that would shed light on their thinking and assumptions.
Looks like it passed the test!
Do you know how many share have been shorted at date?
Putting the noise of the message boards aside (BTW, I include myself in that noise) there really hasn't been much written on BPAX; either pumping it or bashing it. There is an odd media silence as well. Just an observation.
Let me modify my prediction; takeover by management not hostile take over.
I haven't gotten my head around a PPS yet - but the current price level IMO is crazy.
Well, since my prediction for this weeks BPAX's share price was correct- I celebrated by purchasing shares at .44. What is my next prediction -hostile takeover!
Well folks - i broke down and bought some more shares today at .52. I was going to wait and see if the price would drop to below .50 but IMO the reality is that this company is a steel! Today I view BPAX as a brand new IPO where the value of this new company is the cash you just invest in - YET it's already got an experience, highly qualified management team (work force intangible - I got as a freebe), 2 approved FDA drugs (cash flow - another freebe), pipeline of drugs in various stages/phase studies ( growth potential - yet another freebe) and finally Libigel ( potential phase IV - immediate appreciation potential - nice freebe).
Heck! If the price drops any more I will buy the entire company using their own cash and go private! LOL!!
Yes - thanks, I finally got head around the stats behind the trials. Thanks everyone!
Ok - I think I get it. So In a scenario in which Libigel would have failed; the percentage of the Libigel group would have been greater than 100 percent when applied to the general public. I was incorrectly assuming 100 percent was the ceiling when comparing the to group and didn't take into account the general population percentage.
My point is that the placebo group at a 100 percent CV rate statistically puts the Libigel group in a no lose position. So I am simply raising that point and hopefully it's not a trial design flaw that the FDA would latch onto.
Follow up question - the purposes of the trial was CV safety and Libigel; and it clearly shows it's not only safe but reduced CV events. However, what is confusing me, let's assume that Libigel causes CV events, in other if you take it you will be guaranteed an event, so in that case the Libigel group would have a 100 percent event rate- just like the placebo group. At 100 percent vs 100 percent you can argue that Libigel is just as safe the placebo. So in my example Libigel can be wiping out people yet the trial would show it's just as safe as the placebo. What am I missing? If they both would have been at 100 percent, I guess they would need to run some more test designed differently?
Thanks for the link! Yes it's major! Looking to buy some more. Market may continue to drop next week, and assuming no news out BPAX ( I don't expect any news next couple of weeks ) the market may very well take BPAX down some more ( may be mid to high 40s). It's already at a nutty price but we all know the market can be irrational at times; I hope to exploit that. If I am wrong and it's bounces hard on Monday, well that would be awesome - making money on my current holdings.
Follow up to my previous post - what would be awesome is if the Libigei groups CV condition was in fact in a more advance stage that the other group. It would be a slam dunk for FDA approval!
Apologizes if you have already posted the link backing up the statement ( I assume you already have)
" Now the Bliss trial results is indicating that the placebo had the expected number of cardiovascular events (100%) while Libigel only had 29% of the expected CV events. "
The term "expected" in the statement leads me to believe that both test groups had pre-existing cardiovascular conditions. Assuming that both groups pre-existing conditions were similar in term of advancement of the decease, then the benefits of Libigel on CV are truly major. However, IMO what would take the wind out of those sails, if the placebo group's CV condition was more advanced than the Libigel group's CV condition and therefore the group's CV expect event did not happen within the test period. If that is the case then we are only jumping to conclusion on the CV benefits, until BPAX continues to monitor the Libigel group for CV events.
My apologizes again if I am beating a dead horse and this has been previously discussed. Thank you for sharing your information and insight; it's greatly appreciated by everyone.
So when is the next milestone or event that could move the share price and when is that event expected to happen?
The Paragon report is written by incompetents - I am interested in the Jeffries target price link.
Can you provide a link?
I think that its worthwhile to add valuable talent to the team! And that can only be viewed as progress, however, what concerns me is now all this buzz on viruses. How about we finish something first, focus on FDA approval and bring "something" to market etc.. Given managements "black ops" approach to transparency; makes we wonder if there is now a change in strategy? Should there be a problem with the FDA approval do you think the shareholder will ever hear about it or instead will we be flood with virus updates and testing instead.
No buyers; no sellers - looks like everyone is hanging out at the sidelines! It's probably going to stay like this for awhile until a meaningful PR comes out. I don't think the stock price will go much lower. So either the price will go sideways and bore the crap out of us or the price will significantly move up. IMO the following is reflected in the current share price - the reverse split, no value for Libigel, little or no value for pipeline, little or no value for cash flow from approved drugs and cash on hand has probably need discounted as well. Any change in investor sentiment on any of those factor will send the share price upward and on ward!
Nano Beer! When you drink Nano Beer you can expect to get totally wasted much faster than any other beer. The new gold standard when you want to get sh*t faced really fast.
My apologizes; not the new publication. I was going through various NNLX updates on their web cite and my comments relates to the quote below from the NNLX web cite;
"It is important to note that Nanologix has experienced notable product innovation during just the past two months. While executing testing and research activities, our partners have discovered extraordinary product performance improvements. The output from these third party efforts is leading to a series of changes with BNF diagnostic procedures. These developments are undergoing an intensive and accelerated battery of tests, the results of which remain confidential and sensitive and cannot be divulged until publication."