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2011 Info
Natural gas prices to improve in 2011
Apr 6, 2010
Marilyn Radler
OGJ Senior Editor-Economics
HOUSTON, Apr. 6 -- Natural gas production will decline and prices will increase in 2011, the US Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook.
EIA calls for the Henry Hub spot price to average $4.44/MMbtu in 2010 and $5.33/MMbtu in 2011.
The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.29/MMbtu in March, which was $1.03/MMbtu lower than the average spot price in February, and EIA expects prices to remain low for the next several months.
“With strong production and the absence of meaningful space-heating demand, lower-priced natural gas will once again compete with coal for a share of the baseload electricity supply—particularly in the spring and fall. Sustained low prices could reduce drilling activity over time,” EIA said.
The new 2010 price forecast reflects a $0.49/MMbtu increase over the 2009 average but is a downward revision from the $5.17/MMbtu projected in last month's outlook. EIA said that the new price forecast is lower primarily because of an average 2 bcfd upward revision to its 2010 domestic natural gas production forecast.
Gas demand, supply
EIA expects total gas consumption to increase by 1.9% to 63.8 bcfd this year and decline by 0.6% in 2011.
The new outlook for 2010 includes an upward revision to the forecast of electric power sector consumption and reflects EIA's expectation that lower natural gas prices relative to coal prices will increase the utilization of gas-fired generating facilities in the baseload power supply.
EIA's forecast for 2011 includes consumption declines among all consumers except the industrial sector, where demand, supported by continued economic growth, is projected to increase by 1.7% next year.
EIA expects total US marketed gas production to increase by 0.4 bcfd to 60.9 bcfd in 2010 and to decrease by 0.7 bcfd in 2011. US net imports of gas will decline this year as higher imports of LNG and lower pipeline exports are more than offset by a steep decline in pipeline imports due to declining Canadian gas production.
Oil, product prices
EIA projects that global oil consumption will grow by 1.5 million b/d this year and by 1.6 million b/d in 2011.
West Texas Intermediate prices will average above $81/bbl this summer, EIA said. For 2010, EIA sees WTI averaging $80.74/bbl, up 31% from a year earlier. And for 2011, the outlook calls for WTI to average $83.50/bbl.
During this summer season, motor gasoline consumption in the US will increase by 0.5% over last summer, when gasoline consumption was stimulated by the beginning of the economic recovery and a $1.37/gal decline in prices from the previous year.
But the boost to this year’s gasoline consumption from the economic recovery will be countered by higher gasoline prices as compared with a year earlier, EIA said.
Regular-grade gasoline pump prices in the US are projected to average $2.92/gal during this year’s driving season, up from an average of $2.44/gal last summer.
Diesel fuel prices, which averaged $2.46/gal last summer, will average $2.97/gal this summer, according to the EIA outlook.
Info
Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook
October 13, 2010 Release
(Next update November 9, 2010)
Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Overview. As member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) prepare to meet on October 14 to discuss market conditions, they face an oil market outlook largely unchanged from the previous few months. While commercial oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries remain high, floating oil storage has been declining, and EIA believes that a gradual projected reduction in OECD oil inventories over the forecast period should support firming oil prices. The economic outlook has also remained substantially the same, with Asian countries continuing to lead global economic growth. World oil prices are expected to rise gradually as global economic growth leads to higher global oil demand and growth in non-OPEC oil supply slows in 2011. EIA expects OPEC production will rise over the forecast period, keeping oil prices from increasing dramatically. Should OPEC not increase production as global consumption recovers, oil prices could be significantly higher than the central forecast. Conversely, should the global economic recovery be slower than expected, prices could be lower than our forecast.
Global Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption. World oil consumption growth for 2010 has been revised up slightly to 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in response to stronger-than-expected growth in oil demand during the first half of 2010 in China, as well as in the OECD. Non-OECD regions, especially China, the Middle East, and Brazil, represent most of the expected growth in world oil demand in 2011 (World Liquid Fuels Consumption Chart). While other OECD regions are showing declines, North America is expected to show oil consumption growth in 2011 of 0.2 million bbl/d. Projected global oil consumption growth in 2011 is 1.4 million bbl/d, unchanged from last month's Outlook.
Non-OPEC Supply. EIA projects non-OPEC liquids supply will increase by 0.9 million bbl/d in 2010, with the growth coming mainly from the United States, Brazil, and the former Soviet Union. The non-OPEC supply projection for 2010 is 0.2 million bbl/d higher than in last month's Outlook, primarily the result of continued near-record crude oil production occurring in Russia. Forecasted total non-OPEC supply falls by 240,000 bbl/d in 2011, chiefly because of declining total North Sea and North American production--with Mexico's production falling by 170,000 bbl/d--as well as decreasing supplies from Russia. This would be only the third time in the last 15 years that non-OPEC supplies fail to grow year-over-year, following non-OPEC production declines in 2005 and 2008, which were mainly the result of supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico.
OPEC Supply. EIA expects that OPEC crude oil production will rise slightly through 2011 to accommodate increasing world oil consumption and to maintain OPEC market objectives. OPEC crude oil production is projected to increase by 0.3 million bbl/d and 0.6 million bbl/d in 2010 and 2011, respectively, with non-crude petroleum liquids expected to increase by 0.7 million bbl/d in 2010 and 2011. OPEC surplus capacity should remain near 5 million bbl/d, compared with 4.3 million bbl/d in 2009 and 1.5 million bbl/d in 2008 (OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity Chart).
OECD Petroleum Inventories. Commercial oil inventories held in the OECD stood at an estimated 2.78 billion barrels at the end of the third quarter of 2010, equivalent to about 60 days of forward cover, and roughly 90 million barrels more than the 5-year average for the corresponding time of year (Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks Chart). OECD oil inventories are expected to decline through the forecast period, though days-forward-cover should remain high by historical standards.
Crude Oil Prices. WTI oil prices averaged $75 per barrel in September but rose above $80 at the end of the month and into early October as expectations of higher oil consumption pushed up prices. EIA has raised the average fourth quarter 2010 forecasted WTI spot price to $79 per barrel compared with $77 per barrel in last month's Outlook. WTI spot prices are projected to rise to $85 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year. Projected WTI prices average $78 per barrel in 2010 and $83 per barrel in 2011.
Energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, as history has shown (Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty). WTI futures for December 2010 delivery for the 5-day period ending October 7 averaged $83 per barrel, and implied volatility averaged 30 percent. This made the lower and upper limits of the 95-percent confidence interval $68 per barrel and $101 per barrel, respectively, for WTI delivered in December 2010. Last year at this time WTI for December 2009 delivery averaged $69 per barrel and implied volatility averaged 48 percent, with the limits of the 95-percent confidence interval at $49 per barrel and $96 per barrel.
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels
U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption. Projected total U.S. liquid fuels consumption grows by 200,000 bbl/d (1.1 percent) in 2010, and by 110,000 bbl/d (0.6 percent) in 2011, as all of the major petroleum products register consumption growth (U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption Growth Chart). This reverses the trend of falling consumption from 2006 through 2009. A year-over-year decline in total liquid fuels consumption averaging 40,000 bbl/d in the first quarter of 2010 was followed by a year-over-year rise averaging 430,000 bbl/d in the second and third quarters of 2010, led by increases in motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil consumption. During 2010 as a whole, gasoline consumption is projected to increase by 0.2 percent and distillate consumption to increase by 2.7 percent. Projected gasoline consumption growth increases to 0.8 percent in 2011 while distillate fuel consumption growth moderates to 0.4 percent. Jet fuel consumption grows at an average annual rate of about 0.7 percent through 2011.
U.S. Liquid Fuels Supply and Imports. Domestic crude oil production, which increased by 410,000 bbl/d in 2009, is projected to increase by 100,000 bbl/d in 2010 (U.S. Crude Oil Production Chart). Forecast total domestic crude oil production falls by 60,000 bbl/d to 5.4 million bbl/d in 2011. This projection includes a 170,000 bbl/d decline in the Federal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and a 130,000 bbl/d increase in lower-48 non-GOM production next year. Projected ethanol production, which averaged 710,000 bbl/d in 2009, increases to an average of 850,000 bbl/d in 2010 and 870,000 bbl/d in 2011.
EIA forecasts that liquid fuel net imports (including both crude oil and refined products), which fell from 57 percent to 51 percent of total U.S. consumption between 2008 and 2009, will average about 50 percent of total consumption in 2010 and 2011.
U.S. Petroleum Product Prices. Projected regular-grade gasoline retail prices rise from an average $2.35 per gallon in 2009 to an average $2.74 per gallon in 2010 and $2.92 per gallon in 2011. On-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $2.46 per gallon in 2009, average $2.96 per gallon in 2010 and $3.14 in 2011 in this forecast. Refining margins, which have been at their lowest levels since 2003, are projected to average about $2 per barrel higher next year because of growing global product demand and shutdowns of excess global refining capacity.
Yea real close to the action!
Here’s my .02 and what I’ve learned about how things work down here (been here for a year)
As you know Dilma Rousseff was a little-known bureaucrat with a really bad history. Everyone here I've talk to here doesn’t want her to win and will not vote for her. However the way things are done here is not the best
In Brazil you have many poor areas and the politicians simply pay the poor to vote for their campaign. It’s almost funny close to election time (wish I would have taken pictures, If it happens again I will and post) you will see all these poor people waving flags with election candidates on them
Right now the candidate teams will be working through their networks to recruit the most people to vote and that’s what will win the election. I’m really surprised she did not win first round. This my predict the second round
Thank god Rousseff really made a ton of people angry and I think she’s done.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_eJo5fn4ijgM/TEs-UdxFUYI/AAAAAAAABrk/w4O2H0YxkWI/s400/dilma+rousseff+dedo+meio.jpg
Image location:
http://www.google.com/images?oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&q=Dilma+Rousseff&um=1&ie=UTF-8&source=univ&ei=xo-8TIufB8O78gbWlpjGDg&sa=X&oi=image_result_group&ct=title&resnum=3&ved=0CDwQsAQwAg&biw=1280&bih=600
I’ve also heard she is not well and her successor is even worse (Not sure if this is true). If someone wants to do some DD on this might be nice to know.
I'm in Brazil
right now watching this all go down.
Yahoo Div
was there a pay out?
http://www.google.com/finance?q=nbg
I don't see this info anywhere else.
That would be my guess too
PB is up to something here in Vitoria they have seven or eight new choppers sitting in the airport.
They're building a building for something here but I've also seen some of the rigs now coming here for service.
anyway lets see what Nov will bring.
Well
http://www.google.com/finance?q=pbr
Oct 15, 2010
Q3 2010 Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.-Petrobras Earnings Release Add to calendar
Oct 19, 2010
Q3 2010 Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.-Petrobras Earnings Conference Call
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ce?s=PBR+Company+Events
Upcoming Events
Date Event Reminder
15-Oct-10 Earnings announcement Set a Reminder
that' strange
Report
PBR report Friday after the bell?
chart
slowest uptrend I've ever seen :)
Again, Again, Again
from what I remember
1. STB and networking gear (never happen)
2. Chargers for games (even made some then stopped)
3. Phone cases for Iphone (never happen)
4. keypad (never happen)
5. STB again has a new buyer (nothing happen)
Today we have this software do you really think it's going to amount to s@#$? come on guys, walk away and find a new play this one will only end up in losses
B
just great!
Just what we need! lets see what happens Monday
B
Ok,
Cool if it's a different company that makes sense. I really don't care either way. Just had some time on my hands and didn't see the name change as I was browsing around
Not a try to do anything whys your gard so high and stacked with attitude?
B
If they but the assets everyone is toast!
looks like they have their hands on things now.....
It would be an easy asset pick up for them.
good play my ass :)
well well well
Go to
http://www.heartlandenergydevelopmentcorporation.net/heartland-energy-directory.html
then click on
Heartland Energy Development Investing Info
it takes you to
https://www.heartlandenergydevelopment.com/Defaults.aspx
Swan Energy (Thats what the lady said).
hemmmm this looks fishy!
http://www.heartlandenergydevelopmentcorporation.net/wrapper-mainmenu-8.html
I made a call but my line dropped someone picked up the phone and said ..... energy I could not hear before the line dropped
someone make a call that is closer.
888-768-9440
B
I see a
+ .95 pre open!
interesting!
Dance
Should you start the dance?
I agree
what happen to the last two company they had contracts with?
I would have liked to sell into this lol
BTW
Its been a good group good luck to all! But don't wait to long and sink with the ship we're not the captains!!!
B
I agree with you all
I've sold my last shares and will be deleting the fav. I must admit I thought this one might do well but as we're back to the pinks and they now have lost their second sales possibility this looks to be nothing more then a P&D scam.
lol
Think about it.... in dept past their head, no sales and burning cash everyday. Where will the cash come from now? I think you can figure it out.
I needed a cap loss and this was it.
T
I'm amazed that people are still buying this stock!!!!
What a crazy PR. Looks like that lost yet another account.
I'm out of here and deleting the save
B
Halifax I'm out of here
Sorry, I've booked a loss on this one for 2010. I'm heading back to the blue's. I don't see anything happening here so I have no interest in being a mod.
Good luck guys.
B
lol
could be!!!
$1.600
Yea I was just thinking that. $1600 can move the stock up this much lol
Things should be looking up soon now that they have the right to sell.
It's also crazy how tight the stock is.
Action
I wonder whats going on????
PBR is following the EURO
Nothing more at this point. Well a weak economy as well but it's following the FXE almost daily.
I was reading this info
I found this and posted it a while back. It's a good read.
It sounds like other products "great" but man "Sell it" for f'n sakes AKYI.
B
More good news
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR)
UBS downgraded Brazilian state-run oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR) to "neutral" from "buy" on Tuesday. Analysts attributed the rating change to higher company spending as the firm "develops the local supply chain and invests in non-core areas," according to a note. They also cited uncertainty related to recent statements from the company's chief financial officer on the valuation of oil.
Options players jumped on the security yesterday, as more than 66,000 contracts changed hands. This surge in volume was more than double the stock's average daily trading volume of 32,388 contracts, according to data from WhatsTrading.com. Furthermore, traders had a slight preference for calls, as 66% of the volume changed hands on the call side.
The ISE has witnessed an increase in call trading over the last 10 trading sessions, as more than two calls have been purchased to open for every one put purchased to open. This ratio of calls to puts is higher than 77% of all those taken during the past year, pointing to a rising optimism.
Furthermore, the SOIR for PBR stands at 0.76, which is lower than 83% of all those taken during the past year. In other words, short-term options players have been more optimistically aligned toward the shares only 17% of the time during the past 12 months.
There is still room for additional downgrades. According to Zacks, the stock has been awarded six "buy" ratings and four "holds."
Technically speaking, the shares of PBR are struggling, as the equity has dropped more than 18% since the beginning of 2010. The equity has been pressured lower by resistance at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages since December 2009.
This is
David R. Koos buy shares right.
Why is that?
I agree
I sold off c, it's not going to do much before year end (until shares are sold) also when you look at the 27bil shares they have listed it's hard to get excited.
I took the money and caught PBR at $41 I would move the $ to Bac if I still held C
B
New STB and Delivery Partner
http://www.accesskeyip.com/images/IPTV%20Datasheet.pdf
WP
How can you tell?
On the PR about STB it's saying #420
This could get good
I'm not to concerned about the de-list timing was not right. intention was good but.... sometimes things don't work out.
I was looking for their office and its the first time its came up with
8100 Wyoming Blvd NE
Albuquerque, NM 87113
Selected businesses at this address:
2nd To Sun Tanning? - 1 review
Access Key IP Inc?
ADT Security Services - Best Home Security? - 1 review
Athena's Market Cafe? - 1 review
Chili's Grill & Bar? - 1 review
Cold Stone Creamery? - 2 reviews
Dion's Pizza? - Rated 3.0 out of 5.0
Great Clips? - 3 reviews
Huntington Learning Center? - 1 review
IHOP? - 1 review
New Mexico New Homes Realty, Inc.?
Office Max?
OfficeMax - Albuquerque? - 2 reviews
Smith's Food & Drug Center? - 1 review
Starbucks? - 1 review
The UPS Store - 3900?
Wells Fargo? - 1 review
Whataburger? - 1 review
Wireless Express? - 1 review
Interesting
shit, what do you guys make of this?
Could IPworld TV be the help they need to get this company moving?
Could they be for real about the three leads and good news from the PR?
I was thinking about taking a loss soon on this and moving on.
I'm going to need the loss in 2010 to cover my blue chips.
By the way AKYI techs move the F'n usb port to the front, who wants to dig their unit out of the wall every time they need access to the key! Then once in from child proof it (small access door.
B
It's up there no?
I see it.