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Hah, no I'm not saying they should use "MACE" in the commercial, that was just for this board, but they should scream in people's faces that this drug reduces heart attacks by 31%, strokes by 28% and, oh, by the way....cardiovascular death by 20% for statin treated people with high triglycerides.
It seems logical that we can't say anything more than what's currently in there before label expansion, so I'll assume it's going to drastically improve post-label expansion.
However they eventually want to do it (BB's idea?!?) is fine, but it's literally about the least effective ad I could imagine at this point. Poll your friends and family and see what they say. They're the ones that we're targeting. I'd be curious to hear what they think....
I don't like the commercial.....
I come from EXAS, where it couldn't be more clear who they are targeting with their Cologuard commercials. I don't get that same thought with the Vascepa commercials. My extended family and I (8 adults), just saw a commercial and every one of them said the same thing. If they didn't about Amarin & Vascepa through me, they'd have ZERO clue who V is targeted at.
Is the marketing plan directed only at docs? If the answer is yes, that's the wrong approach. If the answer is no, the ad needs significant improvement.
Seriously, a lot of these people that are V candidates wouldn't know what the hell high trigs are if they hit 'em in the face.
Are they precluded from yelling from the mountaintops that V reduces your risk of hard MACE by 26%?
I'm not impressed with the new ad.....
Yep - I use roughly $1M per month in my calcs for EXAS........
TTE - exactly. And...you know what? The people that were overly bullish were even right! Do you know how impressive that is to be right on V for 6 years? Then....when the pay day comes, the big boys get shares 20 - 40% cheaper than those that were bullish and added for the past few weeks.
It ain't right, but it's the game......
Yep - up...eventually. And way up at that, but it won't be a 'gap up' like on 9/24, so keep your expectations in check.
In hindsight, AMRN was the perfect the candidate for this...... massive retail holding, optioned to the hilt and margined to the moon. I'm still rather impressed they pulled it off given the home run results, but it's a slippery slope down.....
Wouldn't be shocked if we get an Andrew Left sighting at some point before this is over.
Psea - this feels so much like EXAS, doesn't it?
I agree. It's also strange that there is a lack of "additional/initiated analyst coverage" that you would typically see from massive news like this. Only HCW after some of the biggest news in the medical world in a half century. Where's Joel Beatty? Where's Jeffries? No one else that wants in? Maybe they're still running their DCF models and saying Holy M0ther Fu@cking Sh!t this is huge? Very odd.....or not......
This short term PPS move is annoying and surprising, but just noise.....
Nothing more than over-leveraged margin investors and a FUD campaign coming together.
This is the current state of the market. WAY over exaggerated moves down due to 'get rich in 2 seconds' mentality.
We hit a home run, so if your investment time frame is more than a week, life is good! :)
That NSX is well deserved. Excited to hear JL's acceptance speech here soon when he gets out of the freezing cold and back to FL.....
First of all, time to pay another huge thank you to JL, and a big congrats to all longs here. I'm not sure most have grasped the magnitude of what's happening here. I'm not joking when I say that this story needs to be told. The story of a stock message board that beat Wall Street in the biggest biotech story of the century. Just unreal, when you really think about it....
I'm pretty convinced at this point that JL borrowed Doc Brown's time machine and instead of a sports book, found a copy of the 75 page results presented today.
Any 12-month price target not in the triple digits is a joke. These analyst's heads are spinning........
There will be plenty of cash when the Europe deal is made. That will likely be our first "surprise" 8-K in the coming weeks/months......
JL - what's your plan with the dough other than the NSX?
Home in the Bahamas?
Trip around the world?
Ridiculous family vacation? (Bora Bora?)
Daughter's wedding?;)-
Note that they didn't say XXXX number of people have strokes, heart attacks, etc in the US. They went straight to death. I got chills.
LoL - this couldn't be more telegraphed. You know JT and the crew are just smiling these last few days dropping hints like this.
Thanks for posting, Raf.....
Mark - absolutely! I don't drink much, but will make an exception for a glass of Caymus Cab to celebrate!
TTE - as usual, thanks for the # crunching. High level, that could make sense and is the reason I haven't slept well in weeks.
If something close to this comes to fruition on Saturday, not only will I not be showing up to my "suit" job on Monday (already have that off), but I will not ever enter the office again. I'll even pay to have my laptop sent back so that I don't have step foot in corporate America again!
At least. SG&A is going to be even more diluted at those levels.
Thank god for a 21% Federal Tax rate, huh? What amazing timing for the TCJA for AMRN shareholders!
Suntrust's models (for $30PT) are using sales of $2.5B in 2024.
Always nice to get a good laugh in on Monday morning!
Too much guessing going on. Lipitor sales were ~ $3.7B in 1999. Other WL drugs were $2.5B. Total WL sales in 1999 were $13B.
If you don't know, spend some time looking it up and researching.
Okay - get that script and congrats on the big score. Make sure you take the 12th off.
It's like Colin Kaepernick kneeling for the Anthem and then not voting a few weeks later........
Are you sh!tting me? You own 120k+ shares and don't have the balls to demand it from your physician and you're posting DS again? It's honestly appalling. I'm 35 and healthy as an ox and demanded it from my GP. How about the long timers contribute to scripts in the next few weeks. My god.
Sounds good. Ciao Bella at 11:45 tomorrow? Shoot me an e-mail at mikemiller335095@yahoo.com and I'll send you a text with my name so that we know who we're looking for. Look forward to it!
Mark - now you're talking. I think a co-promo is a very strong possibility.
Can I buy you lunch tomorrow or next week and we can further discuss? I can come toward you wherever in the Twin Cities (I'll be DT Mpls). Let me know - would be good to make the connection in person.
I agree. This is a lesson learned from EXAS for me (and likely you). My takeaway is even the very best ideas in medicine require a MASSIVE army of sales folks. That's even more so with something like V which is so time sensitive to ramp up. They need a thousand sales reps now. I think they're behind on this front, but we'll see if it matters in the next few months if there's a B/O or co-promo.
Kevin Conroy, who is the rock star CEO of EXAS first believed they'd need a sales force no larger than 20-30 people because their product is that great. Fast forward 4 years and they realized that they needed more than 15x that size and just agreed to a co-promo with Pfizer because that still wasn't enough fire power.
I'm as bullish as anyone here, but I don't think you can overstate the amount of effort needed, even for a paradigm shifting idea.....
You're only half picking up TTE's point. In other words, RRR would obviously be much lower in T2DM if T2DM were no longer T2DM......
This state is amazing for six months and worse than miserable for the other six. I don't buy the whole "I love the seasons" argument any longer. Snow is fun for about 1 hour, IMO, and I have a 2 year old.
Did you by chance live in Mazeppa MN? I grew up in Winona MN and played high school sports against Zumbrota-Mazeppa.....
Fair enough. On 11/10, it might be a wet dream.
Maz - you're joking, right? That's just click bait at the end of every Zack's prefabricated earnings article.
I continue to be in awe that the Band of Brothers is okay not using Vascepa while some of the newbies (me!) have insisted that their doc prescribe V.
I'm only ribbing here, btw...... ;), but seriously, demand V. Otherwise, you're doing exactly what we hope millions of others don't do. Be a good role model!
Ham - he was right, against almost all of Wall St., in perhaps the largest drug story of all time. This is the type of shit that movies are made of. And none of this is exaggeration or hyperbole. I'm "new" and he can say whatever the F he wants about me, because he was right about the stock call of the decade, which is unfolding in front of our eyes....
I can't believe that one of the biggest AMRN bulls is posting pics of Pharmepa that he takes. I'm like you, don't have any health issues, rarely see a doc, huge hands, feet, etc, but did get a script of Vascepa by simply mentioning that I don't trust DS fish oils, they make my stomach feel achy, I get fish burps and, oh by the way, V is amazingly anti-inflammatory and talked about Reduce-It results. I'm a bit younger than you and received no push back. My doc mentioned that he was going to research a bit more for his own knowledge.
Give your doc a ring and add to Q4 scripts!
Good find!
For the long timers.....have they used the word "franchise" in prior communications much?
Thanks for sharing - enjoyed the read. I have no doubt that you and your sons will carry on your wife's legacy. Use the financial rewards that AMRN provides to enhance your life and the time you spend with them. That's what this is all about in the end.
Thanks so much to your family for the great service that they provide to our country.....
Outstanding find. Thanks for sharing. You can't stop what's coming..........
Hey Marki - want to grab a quick lunch in the Twin Cities next week? If so, shoot me an e-mail to mikemiller335095@yahoo.com
It would be good to make a connection with a fellow Amarinite. Any others in the TC area are welcome too. Just shoot me an e-mail and we'll get it lined up.
When you look at the agenda for the Monday AM roundtable, I think it's pretty clear that they're enforcing a major positive on Saturday evening. They've only got 10 minutes at AHA, so it makes sense to me that they'd like to further elaborate beyond that and waiting until Monday AM would be too late with two continuing education programs already scheduled before that could even take place. They'd actually bump up against Bhatt on Monday AM because he'll be on the panel from 6am to 7:30am. Also, why not keep it seamless and expand on the results immediately instead of waiting until Monday morning, another day and half. Keep the momentum.
Last thought: Monday 7:25am "What does the NEW NORM look like for Cardiovascular Risk Reduction post Reduce-It Trial"
I like that title.....
For a company that is going to GIA, they sure have a small number of non-sales job openings listed. Especially given they're going to go from $200M revs to $3B in short time. I compare this to EXAS, whos's a $500M company with only domestic ops. They had something like 300 job openings a year or two back when things were really picking up. About half were non-sales related.
I find this odd.......
Dude, it looks like you post a lot, but hold out off on the non breaking news that everyone has already seen. If it's new to you, then go nuts, but no need to "spam" the board.....