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Wade: how did you make such a mistake ? Did you not understand the wash sale rules ? Or was it just a sloppy mistake ? Yes, mistakes of all sorts in life can be very costly. I consider the wash sale rules to be fair, but that's just my opinion. If one takes a big loss in a security for tax purposes then one has to be super vigilant not to buy it back within 30 days. Fair or unfair, it's a very simple rule to follow. I presume that you've learned from this expensive lesson and won't let it happen again.
UAW - Ford contract details
This is rather inflationary if it spreads more broadly across the US workforce into other sectors -
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-29/ford-uaw-deal-includes-car-buying-voucher-higher-401-k-payment?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
F, GM
I take a more progressive view and distinguish between "earned" and "unearned" income. Folks like teachers, doctors, factory workers, truck drivers, farmers, accountants, engineers, construction workers, etc, are directly contributing to society while that's less the case for stock traders and investors, particularly those with very high incomes. So in my view "unearned" income above a certain amount should be taxed more progressively (not to the point of being confiscatory). I'm a republican, but I do side with the democrats on a few issues including that we should have a more progressive tax system. My Roth IRA is nearly up 1000% since I converted and I'll never pay another penny of tax on it. That's a bit too generous of the tax code, imho.
I think the tax code is very generous to investors. Capital gains are taxed at the same or a lower rate than earned income. Some people work very hard to earn a buck. I feel very privileged to have gotten wealthy trading stocks and it's also been a lot of fun, even the bear markets, because that's part of the game.
I've never done a full account transfer because, as you indicated, the account holdings can be effectively frozen for as long as it takes to transfer the account which could be many days. I do account transfers gradually by selling securities as I normally would and then transferring the cash whenever the sales occur. Of course, I don't do any buy orders in the account being eliminated, so eventually the account is fully liquidated and the resulting cash transferred.
Wade - seasonally Aug - Oct are the worst 3 consecutive months of the year for the market on average .... so not sure why you didn't at least stay short through Halloween. The coming 3 months Nov - Jan are historically the best 3 consecutive months of the year on average, so maybe the market has a bounce coming. However I wouldn't be surprised if this correction has further to go. jmho. Anything could happen.
Wade - that's NOT true at all - if you buy back a $1000 worth of stock, then only the most recent sales of stock representing the SAME number of shares would be subject to wash sale rules.
CUBI +5.52 to 39.27 after the strong earnings beat .... stock is now up nearly 500% since the panic selloff in March during the regional banking crisis.
Might be getting near to fair value so I sold some covered calls today although it did trade in the $70's at the market top early in 2022.
GTLS -31 to 115, looks oversold if that 2024 adj EPS guidance for $14 can be trusted. Analysts are estimating $11.50. It's now down over 50% from the 52wk high. I added it to my watchlist. Thanks.
New construction home sales are at all time record highs as a percentage of overall sales (around 30%) .... ironically high mortgage rates are a big reason for the very low supply of existing home sales ..... homeowners are reluctant to give up their low rate mortgages and take on a high rate mortgage which they are forced to do when they sell a home to upgrade to another home. Mortgages cannot be rolled over to another house.
So the low supply of existing homes for sale has been a boon for the homebuilders -
https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/new-construction-makes-up-record-share-of-inventory
MHO, CCS, TOL
AER (59.45) reports strong Q3 earnings -
briefing -
AerCap beats by $0.44, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS below consensus (59.45 ) :
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.44 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.37; revenues rose 9.7% year/year to $1.89 bln vs the $1.89 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues raised guidance for FY23, sees EPS of $9.50 from $8.50-9.00 vs. $9.82 FactSet Consensus.
"In October 2023, our Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program authorizing total repurchases of up to $500 million of AerCap ordinary shares through March 31, 2024."
"This was another great quarter for AerCap. We generated adjusted net income of $639 million and adjusted earnings per share of $2.81. As a result of this strong performance and our outlook for the rest of the year, we are once again raising our guidance for the year. Our underlying business continues to perform well and demand for our assets remains robust, evidenced by the significant number of transactions completed during the quarter. We are pleased to announce a new $500 million share repurchase program, taking total authorizations to $2.65 billion so far this year and underlying our confidence in the value on offer today," said Aengus Kelly, Chief Executive Officer of AerCap.
MPW +.70 to 5.16 after an encouraging earnings report and action plan to reduce debt. FFO was $0.38 for Q3. Maybe the bottom was put in yesterday at $4.44 ? It remains very speculative.
CUBI (33.75) posts Q3 EPS of $2.58 versus estimates for $1.59. Earnings include $27M of gains related to an acquired portfolio of loans from the FDIC after the regional bank crisis. Even adjusting out that gain, EPS was about $1.85, still well ahead of estimates, and book value rose to $45.36.
CUBI was up 7% after hours.
Agreed, I have in fact run into restricted stocks at Ameritrade that are "call in only" and I've complained through their message center, but I just move the trade to another broker. No big deal. It happens 2 or 3 times per year at most.
TDA - I guess the criticism pertains just to restricted illiquid nanocaps and pinksheets ? I don't trade those very much and when I do it's just "fun money" anyway, so I've never had to call in about one. Sometimes my orders go "pending approval", but only in relatively illiquid stocks, which makes perfect sense, and their system always seems to allow the order after 30 seconds or so ..... also I have numerous other brokerage accounts, so I can always place a trade at another broker if need be. There's no way I'd want to have all my money with a single broker !
I have very small accounts with Schwab, Fidelity, ETrade, Merrill and Ally but found no reason to make the move from TDA. I keep the accounts open in case I want to access their research.
IB is easily best for their diversified offerings. I use them a lot to trade options on NG and CL futures. But they are pricey with special fees for leveraged futures positions, etc.
Thankfully Schwab is keeping Thinkorswim which I think is far superior to Schwab's streamer. To each his own. The opinion surveys don't see it your way, nor do I.
TDA has excellent executions in my experience and I typically execute many trades per day. With stock options it's easy to get inside the bid ask spread and unlike many other brokers like IB they allow penny increments on limit orders.
As for trading in highly illiquid nanocaps, I don't do much of that, but other brokers have restrictions too.
I don't trade treasuries directly, I use ETFs like SGOV. Far more efficient.
I have a large account so I benefit from prompt and excellent customer service, maybe that's not the case for all accounts.
IB has by far the most diverse offering of trading .... foreign exchanges, shorting pinksheets, options on futures, etc, so for that I use IB, but I'm not fond of their platform, high commissions and fees. For most trading I prefer TDA over IB.
Surveys have TDA generally ranked quite highly, so the broader customer base views them favorably. Forbes and Fortune rank TDA ahead of Schwab -
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-online-brokers/
https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/best-online-brokerages/
Gilead - TDA - I do most of my trading with them and can't complain. I also like the "Thinkorswim" trading platform better than others. Why do you consider them "complete trash" ? Have you had bad experiences with customer service or the website ?
F - Ford reaches tentative agreement with UAW - the strike may soon be over -
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/ford-uaw-near-tentative-labor-deal-to-potentially-end-six-week-strike-at-the-automaker-8064a971?st=oe4ngpn61obosit&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
UUU +.60 to 3.94, IB currently has 13k available at a 48% borrow rate. I'm reluctant having recently been burned by my short in GCT. First I took a loss on the long side, then the short side, LOL.
PYPL -2.02 to 52.22, making new multi year lows after a warning from a major European fintech company -
Barron's -
Financial-technology stocks were falling early Wednesday. A warning from a
major European payments company was sending jitters through the industry.
Worldline (WLN.France), a major payments company based in France, slashed
its full-year guidance on Wednesday as an economic slowdown hit sales and
profitability in key markets.
Consumers are directing their spending toward essential items such as
housing and food, rather than discretionary expenses such as entertainment
or luxury goods, Worldline said.
Worldline shares fell 58% in Paris. The warning spread nerves throughout
the payments and fintech industry. Shares of payments company Block (SQ)
dropped 3.9%, and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) was down 2.6%.
Worldline focuses on business in Europe, and specifically called out
Germany as a country where the macroeconomic environment was deteriorating.
Worldline said it is now expecting 6% to 7% growth in organic sales for the
year, after previously forecasting 8% to 10% growth this year.
PayPal generated around 18% of its revenue from Europe last year, while
it accounted for just 3.3% of Block's revenue, according to FactSet.
European payments companies were hit hard as well. Dutch company Adyen
(ADYEN.Netherlands) fell 6.4% in Amsterdam and Italy's Nexi (NEXI.Italy)
dropped 15%.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
Bitcoin hits $34,000 ..... on a nice run lately and up a whopping 170% YTD. There've been reports that a bitcoin ETF will soon be approved for trading on the Nasdaq. That could bring in a lot more buyers.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-soars-10-2-12-year-high-2023-10-23/
BTC
AAOI -.49 to 6.96, analysts gave bullish commentary and raised price targets following the Q2 results in August, yet the stock has been trending sharply lower since then - it will be very interesting to see the Q3 report and updated guidance due out on 11/9 -
fly -
8/4 - B. Riley analyst Dave Kang upgraded Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $11.50, up from $2.50, post the Q2 results. The analyst cites the ramp of 400G, the company's supply agreement with Microsoft (MSFT) that could be worth $300M over the next three years, CATV bottoming, and the potential for significant margin expansion to improve profitability for the upgrade. Management believes the 100G strength will last for several quarters while 400G will continue to grow, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Riley believes the stock still has more upside.
8/4 - Northland analyst Tim Savageaux raised the firm's price target on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to $12.50 from $10 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm notes it had previously pointed to the potential for a "very strong uptick" in Q2 capex and outlook at Microsoft (MSFT) to benefit Applied's current module unit and set the stage for the ramp of new Active Optical Cables in 2024, adding that the company's "extremely strong" Q3 guidance driven by 100-400G datacom modules are "confirming that view."
8/30 - Northland raised the firm's price target on Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to $20 from $12.50 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is raising price targets on a pair of AI Data Center names following results from Nvidia Marvell Credo Technology as well as Fabrinet's (FN) "breakout" fiscal Q4 report last Monday, the analyst tells investors. "Even after very strong moves," last week's events and analysis "point to a much larger than expected AI connectivity market" measured in billions of dollars of revenues and millions of units.
C and PYPL - we know C had a solid quarter, well ahead of estimates, whereas PYPL results remain to be seen, not due out until 11/1. Hopefully a decent quarter, but if the stock action is any indication, they could miss estimates.
TTNN (0.30) is extremely illiquid with plenty of zero volume days. EPS of $0.002 in Q2. Looks overvalued if it had any liquidity, which it does not.
https://www.otcmarkets.com/otcapi/company/financial-report/379361/content
C -.10 to 39.96, here's your chance to buy below $40 if you're still interested ..... of course so many stocks are getting hit that there may be better opportunities on a relative basis.
PYPL -.88 to 53.92, keeps plunging to new lows, now down to 2017 levels .... maybe an earnings disappointment is looming ? We'll find out on 11/1.
Russell Microcap Index down 13% YTD while NYFANG is up 68% .... a huge divergence. Noteworthy also is that the S&P equal weight is significantly lagging the weighted index - megacap tech has been the big winner.
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
$NYFANG 68% 7476.04 4448.07
$NDX 35% 14783.13 10939.76
$COMP 26% 13186.18 10466.48
$RLG 25% 2701.25 2158.19
$SPX 11% 4278 3839.5
$DJT 8% 14435.82 13391.91
$DJI 1% 33414.17 33147.25
$IXBT 0% 0 0
$MID 0% 2420.15 2430.38
$SPXEW -2% 5633.72 5739.53
$RLV -2% 1468.04 1497.12
$RUT -3% 1702.7 1761.25
$SML -4% 1106.56 1157.53
$NBITR -9% 4074.33 4474.26
$BTK -9% 4783.66 5281.1
$NBI -10% 3812.02 4213.13
$W5KMICRO-12% 11103.44 12683.47
$RUMIC -13% 593.27 678.57
$DJU -16% 816.63 967.4
SSK - BCBP (11.08) reports Q3 adj EPS of $041, missing estimates for $0.50 ..... what are your thoughts on the quarter ?
BCB Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”), (NASDAQ: BCBP), the holding company for BCB Community Bank (the “Bank”), today reported net income of $6.7 million for the third quarter of 2023, compared to $8.6 million in the second quarter of 2023, and $13.4 million for the third quarter of 2022. Earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2023 were $0.39, compared to $0.50 in the preceding quarter and $0.76 in the third quarter of 2022. Net income and earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2023, adjusted for the unrealized losses on equity investments, were $7.1 million and $0.41, respectively.
Philly leading 10 to 0. What a blowout. I guess this series is over - if tonight is any indication of the matchup.
Economists are getting more optimistic according to a WSJ survey -
https://www.wsj.com/economy/a-recession-is-no-longer-the-consensus-3ad0c3a3?st=vd0u8hjjye8e3vt&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
SSK - we missed you. Best wishes for a swift and full recovery.
Nelson - PCTI - nice call on the buyout potential ! Congrats on having a decent sized position.
I still have the tiny position I bought last December in the low $4's.
C posts Q3 EPS of $1.52, handily beating estimates for $1.23 -
briefing -
Citigroup beats by $0.29, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 revenue guidance (41.53)
Reports Q3 (Sep) adjusted earnings of $1.52 per share, $0.29 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.23; revenues rose 8.8% year/year to $20.14 bln vs the $19.27 bln FactSet Consensus.
Co issues reaffirms guidance for FY23, sees FY23 revs of $78-79 bln vs. $78.98 bln FactSet Consensus.
Third quarter results included divestiture-related impacts of $299 million(5) in earnings before taxes ($214 million after-tax), primarily driven by a gain on the sale of the Taiwan consumer business, recorded in Legacy Franchises. Excluding these divestiture-related impacts, earnings per share was $1.52 . This compares to divestiture-related impacts in the third quarter 2022 of $519 million(5) in earnings before taxes ($256 million after-tax), also recorded in Legacy Franchises, and earnings per share of $1.50, excluding divestiture-related impacts. Citi CEO Jane Fraser said, Despite the headwinds, our five core, interconnected businesses each posted revenue growth resulting in overall growth of 9%. Services, our fastest growing business, grew by 13% with Treasury and Trade Solutions having its best quarter in a decade. Markets was up 10% driven by strength in Fixed Income. Banking activity played to our mix and grew 17%, bolstered by a rebound in debt issuance and some signs of life in the equity capital markets.
U.S. Personal Banking also had double-digit revenue growth while a continued deceleration in spending indicates an increasingly cautious consumer. And Wealth revenues grew as the business continues to win new mandates and acquire new clients.
Full year 2023 net interest income, excluding Markets: Increasing from ~$46+ billion to $47.5+ billion. Full year 2023 expenses: ~$54 billion, excluding 2023 divestiture-related impacts( and FDIC special assessment. Citigroup total allowance for credit losses on loans was approximately $17.6 billion at quarter end, compared to $16.3 billion at the end of the prior-year period, with a reserve-to-funded loans ratio of 2.68%, compared to 2.54% at the end of the prior-year period. Total non-accrual loans increased 14% from the prior-year period to $3.3 billion. Corporate non-accrual loans increased 33% to $2.0 billion. Consumer non-accrual loans decreased (7)% to $1.3 billion.
INMD -5.59 to 22.40, I added to my position and also hedged and over hedged my entire position with covered calls to bring my cost basis down to about $24.50. I'd actually be short if all my calls get assigned, but the stock would have to be over 30 for that to happen.
INMD -5.45 to 22.54, getting crushed even after the recent selloff ..... after the Q2 report the stock was at $44, so down around 50% since late July whereas the annual revenue guidance is down only 6% ..... seems oversold to me, but maybe you're right that investors are seeing this reduced guidance as just the beginning of an extended period of revenue and earnings decline. I'm mulling over adding some shares, but it might be a mistake.
VTLE dose a lot of hedging and over 1M barrels for Q3 is fixed at $72.82 according to the latest 10Q, so that will factor in along with any additional hedging since then as well as acquired hedges. Even so, good to see production above guidance and capital expenditures below, which should mean strong cash flows.
TPST - IB also has no shares available for shorting. Latest borrow rate was 144%.
HASI - nice trading, looks like you caught a short term bottom and top !
SSK - thanks for your insights on Citicorp. Earnings are due out Friday morning and I look forward to seeing the numbers.
C
GCT +.36 to 10.32, I've likewise been covering at a loss, but still have a few shares left to cover .... the traders seemingly couldn't care less that it's likely a scam.