full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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That would seem somewhat nefarious, except that we know you so well here. IMHO, calling 50% moves on anything without taking the market into acct is kinda ludicrous.
What's the point of such a call? Are you looking for your loyal followers to come aboard?
AUN.v ... I didn't see the .65 price stated anywhere. It looked like they were selling C$25million stock and warrants, but original announcement I saw did not state price.
Did notice the following, which indicates the offering could put a cap on AUN.v for a few months:
"All securities of the Company issued in connection with the Offering will be subject to a hold period in Canada of four months and one day from the date of issuance of the securities. "
AUN.v: Aurcana ... Sprott suit has been dismissed (GREAT NEWS that removes significant uncertainty, so I bought a starter position this week) ... very nice website for a mining company (reminds me of GORO's smart mgt team and good website) ... good company presentation and pics of their mine developments at Shafter mine in TX and La Negra in MX ... heavy on the stock marketing plans (which is good) ... not sure how good an investment with AUN.v would be at this point, however, they certainly do have somebody that likes to travel and talk about the company:
Marketing Schedule
October 2011
20-21 Silver Summit - Spokane, WA
November 2011
14-17 Academy and Finance - Zurich and Geneva
27-28 Hard Assets - San Francisco, CA
January 2012
22-23 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference
February 2012
9-12 The World Money Show - Orlando, FL
March 2012
4-7 PDAC - Toronto, ON
April 2012
12-13 Precious Metals Summit - Geneva, Switzerland
AGM: That's 2 good reasons that it would be down today. Of course there's always the Rodney Dangerfield perspective ... it just gets no respect!
AGM ... it would have performed better today if it reported derivative gains instead of BIG losses ...
AGM derivatives losses may persist, don't ya think?
When quarterly results are more impacted by mark-to-market stuff, it certainly sounds more like a BANK than an AGRICULTURE stock.
Good luck ... meanwhile, I'll stay with CMT this week at least.
OT: Kozuh, your cousin Herman was partying like it was 1 999 last nite.
CMT/FSIN: Started position in CMT (great P/E and growth, though avg daily volume is less than I like); also added FSIN (devil made me do it at 6.66 I think CL likes it as potential buyout play.
OT: As Herman Cain would say, "Hey, Babe, have I got an app for you!!!"
MJX.v/MJXFF.pk must have some sort of investor overview this week in Haiti. Rumor has it that CL is there this week.
The company is not very vocal about operations as they move toward developing their mine. Hopefully CL will update us on his return about plans and schedules for building a functioning mine.
MMT.v/Mauxf.pk moving up a little today on average volume.
Hmmmmmm...... anybody hearing anything thru the grapevine before it hits the news?
UVE ... now that is a scary proposition.
I'll steer clear for now. They seem to be doing what the former governor of New Jersey did.
Audit appears pointless since stock is trading so low. Maybe it's just being done to help Mr. Sarvis minimize his personal income taxes and optimize self-reward with generous stock options early next year.
UVE ... better to buy on way up rather than avg down by catching knives ...
IMHO, it looks very good under $4 though, as it has stayed above $4 most of the last year.
UVE dividends have been "occasional" rather than consistent on a quarterly basis. Two things have built a floor under UVE stock price: dividends and P/E.
Could anyone please explain the mgt's method for when and how much dividends to declare? For instance ... is it semiannual rather than quarterly, or are they just paid irregularly as "special" dividends?
TIA, 'peeker
UVE: Looks like the investment loss of $10million amounts to .25/share investment loss based on 40million shares.
Aren't they heavily invested in gold stocks or gold ETF?
It could be a good investment (assuming next qtr investment earnings vs. losses) if it corrects a bit over the next few days after these lower than expected earnings.
Management is looking a little dubious/stupid/knuckleheaded with their concentration in only one commodity sector for their investments.
CENJF.pk has rebounded from US$7.30 on 4 Oct to US$12.80 now, and it is totally deserved based on lots of good news. Anyone owning it or interested in owning it should review the November presentation on their website! It may correct a little from here, but I doubt it goes back below $10 ever again. They are really executing, and they have rich prospects offshore Thailand.
http://www.coastalenergy.com/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/presentations/November_2011.pdf
Look at the seismic section on page 19:
"Arbitrary Seismic Line from Merged 3D Seismics"
Biggest Negative I See: High Tax Rate on production in Thailand
My Fantasy: Wish I owned nothing but CEN instead of all that damn Mart. Coastal's management appears to be very SMART, while Mart management is Snot.
ATPG: ATP Oil & Gas provides operations update - Q3 production was 24,200 BOE per day, representing an increase of 14.7% YoY (10.45 )
Drilling operations at the fourth Telemark Hub well at Mississippi Canyon Block 942 #2 are complete. ATP encountered 167 feet of new net pay sands above pre-drill estimates. These sands are in addition to the 72 feet of logged net oil pay seen in the original target sand. With this additional pay sand, ATP is modifying completion plans for MC 942 #2 and now expects to complete both hydrocarbon sands and establish production in late January 2012. ATP believes that these new pay sands will have a positive effect on production by extending the production life and third-party reserve estimates associated with MC 942.
MMT.v negotiations with AGIP ...
"Negotiations with Agip, the Nigeria operator of the export pipeline, to increase export capacity for the Umusadege field have been ongoing and are nearing conclusion."
G O I N G
V E R Y
S L O W L Y !!!!
(analogy: pipeline constipation)
DTRX is veyy thinly traded and has some downside risk: "We expect sales and earnings to moderate in the fourth quarter due to seasonal factors and the cessation of the tolling arrangement at Elco."
FSIN disappoints and lowers total 2011 earnings estimate.
OOPS!
Looks like this one is dropping about 7% already pre-mkt.
AGM: Some investors may believe that collateral on AGM's farm loans could be significantly overvalued in that farm land is REAL PROPERTY, and it is not selling very well, except in cases where it is heavily discounted. In particular, when a farm fails, the bank takes it over and sells it as bank-owned, but proceeds of sale may not meet the loan value.
When a farm owner in trouble due to poor crop yield, the bank may not extend additional credit beyond existing credit on collateral (land) that may be already overvalued. In short, the land as collateral has come down in value, thus there remains significant uncertainty as to AGM's good financial results in future if they have to begin writing down more loans in future.
If the scenario develops that farm foreclosures increase, quarterly earnings would be negatively impacted. The primary issue is uncertainty in the underlying collateral, which increases AGM risk over the longer term.
JMHO, 'peeker
NKL.v / Prophecy Platinum announced a 3million share PP today at 2.70 for $8.1 million (minus finders fee). Sprott and other insiders added shares.
PCY.v/PRPCF.pk took a hit on their stock price as an existing major shareholder of Prophecy Platinum.
I hesitate to ask, but ...
Does SHOM hold an annual "shareholders mtg"? If so, when? It might be interesting to see if anyone shows up to knock over a few tables in a rage.
Run by Freddie, who uses a chainsaw when he talks to investors?
MMT.v/MAUXF.pk: Volume has been strong lately with a positive bias in share price. Anyone have a clue on timing for news release announcing a new AGIP deal?
From Risk Aversion to Risk Conversion:
There was little doubt yesterday in (most) capital markets as to how Europe's recovery plan was received. In brief, there was an overwhelmingly positive response to the plan that appeared to have the right ingredients, but was yet still lacking key details.
The S&P 500 spiked 3.4% in a power surge led by the financial sector (+6.2%), Treasuries got clobbered, commodities rallied, and the dollar took a dive as the risk aversion trade turned into a risk conversion trade.
Safe-haven plays were discarded, or at least underperformed, while risk assets caught a persistent bid.
The scope of the move suggested it was a catch-up rally as underinvested participants redeployed sidelined cash in an effort to catch up to performance benchmarks and out of concern that they could miss out on further gains. With a number of pundits previously suggesting the market would be disappointed by a plan that lacked specific details, we suspect there was a wave of short covering as well that augmented the day's gains.
If there was a fly in the ointment, it was European bond markets, and particularly Italy's bond market, which ultimately retraced a significant portion of earlier gains that saw the yield on its 10-year bond slip to 5.60%. Today, that yield is back at 5.93% following a 10-year note auction that went off at a euro-era record yield of 6.06%.
There has been a good bit of consternation over Italy and its commitment to implementing reforms that are necessary to reduce credit risk. Additionally, questions remain as to whether the EU rescue plan will ultimately have enough firepower to deal with a run on Italy's bond market, were one to occur.
The Italian government has indicated that it will present a reform plan with specific details by November 15. In the meantime, the behavior of its bond market will be closely watched by participants as a risk gauge.
There are reports this morning that the weak bond auction in Italy is pressuring the futures market. Currently, the S&P futures are down seven points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.
We are going to reserve judgment there. After the rally we had yesterday, and over the last three weeks, it is easy to pinpoint thoughts that sound reasonable for explaining market setbacks without acknowledging the simple thought that the weakness could simply be a case of profit taking after such a strong run.
Our suspicion is that pullbacks in the near term will be looked at as a buying opportunity by participants still playing catch up here and who are banking on a month-end move with a bullish bias and the transition to what has historically been a bullish period for the equity market (November to April).
Each year is different of course, so there are no guarantees on history repeating itself. The tide of sentiment has certainly turned more bullish in recent weeks, but developments on the follow through in implementing the EFSF, as well as the efforts by the "Super Committee" in the U.S. Congress to agree to a deficit reduction plan by November 23, are expected to keep things interesting from a trading standpoint as we roll through November.
For now, this October is on track to be one of the best months in market history, meaning it has been very scary for short sellers as Halloween draws near.
Separately, the Personal Income and Spending report for September didn't reveal any major surprises for the market. Income increased 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) while spending jumped 0.6%, as expected. With this data incorporated in yesterday's Q3 GDP report, the response to it has been fairly muted.
AGM action ... correlates with your mood swings ... just kidding .... maybe it's just not the best "risk off" trade ... good luck with AGM.
Have a good one!
'peeker
On the Edge of Glory
With all due respect to our readers, we are not going to give you much insight on yesterday's market action. Trust us. If we did, your head would be spinning and you'd be left with a sense of not knowing what you just read. The only information that is pertinent is that the Dow gained 0.3%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.2%, and the S&P 500 increased 0.5%.
How we got there is irrelevant, but let's just say there was a lot of headline nonsense about the impending EU Summit that played a major role.
The only thing that can be said for certain about that summit is that there are a number of known unknowns.
We know that private holders of Greek debt are going to be asked to take a bigger writedown. Nobody knows for certain what the size of that writedown will be.
We know that there will be a bank recapitalization plan for European banks. Nobody knows for certain what the size of that plan will be.
We know that the European Financial Stability Facility will be used to help mitigate a run on European sovereign bond markets. Nobody knows for certain how much leverage the EFSF will have to do that.
All of the speculation on these main points, and other items, like the discord between Merkel and Sarkozy over whether streusel or eclairs will be served for dessert at the summit dinner, has become a fool's stomping ground. Fittingly, one can easily lose their mind watching the flood of conflicting headlines on this all-important summit.
In the end, the facts will come out from the leaders themselves (reportedly no later than Wednesday) and not from a gaggle of unnamed sources and so-called senior officials. Until then, it is simply gambling trying to allocate capital on an expected outcome that has more looks than Lady Gaga.
Having said all that, the cash market looks poised for a solid start. The S&P futures are trading 1.1% above fair value on this options expiration day. Yes, this bullish bias reportedly has a lot to do with optimism over the expected outcome from the summit, as new headlines now suggest Merkel and Sarkozy are "on the same page" ahead of the European summit.
It is probably worth noting that a quarterback and a receiver can break the huddle on the same page of the playbook, only to realize they weren't really on the same page they each thought they were when the quarterback throws a down-and-out while the receiver runs a down-and-in.
It's now game-time, though, and perfect execution is key for these leaders. Unfortunately, perfect execution has not been a trait of the European players, but this is a moment where they could be on "the edge of glory" (A Lady Gaga song... sorry).
On an unrelated note, corporations continue to execute very well, even perfect in some cases, as evidenced by the third quarter earnings reports. Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Verizon (VZ), and McDonald's (MCD) all did what they had to do, which is not disappoint with their earnings results.
While headlines about Europe continue to dominate the action, it is fair to say that the earnings news continues to provide an important measure of support for the broader market. If European leaders can manage not to mess things up, the earnings results should ultimately be seen as a solid foundation for an upside breakout for the equity market.
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
Patrick J. O'Hare is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing Research, Briefing.com's institutional research service. To request a free trial, please email researchsales@briefing.com.
PZG: Paramount Gold and Silver finds new gold zone at Sleeper Project in Nevada - Drill hole PGR-11-022, the northern most drill hole under the heap leach pads, intersected 24 meters grading 0.63 g/T of gold and 1.3 g/T of silver (2.34)
The Pad discovery resulted from drilling around the main Sleeper structure north from the Facilities zone. Drill hole PGR-11-022, the northern most drill hole under the heap leach pads, intersected 24 meters grading 0.63 g/T of gold and 1.3 g/T of silver in an entirely new mineralized zone which was not recognized by the condemnation drilling conducted in the area before locating the heap leach pads. Hole PGR-11-023 also intersected this new target, returning higher grade intercepts such as 1.5 meters grading 6.29 g/T of gold and 6.3 g/T of silver comparable to the grades exploited in the historical Sleeper vein.
USAT pops after giving the boot to CEO who posted on Yahoo stock boards.
USA Technologies Comments on Resignation of Chairman and Chief Executive Officer George Jensen
MALVERN, Pa., Oct 18, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
USA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: USAT), a leader of wireless, cashless payment and M2M telemetry solutions for self-serve, small ticket retailing industries, today issued the following additional information regarding the resignation of Chairman and CEO George Jensen on October 14, 2011.
Late last month, the Audit Committee of the Company's Board of Directors was contacted with information suggesting that Mr. Jensen had been posting information about the Company on an online investor forum. Kroll, Inc., the world's leading risk consulting company, was engaged in order to assist with the investigation.
The investigation determined that Mr. Jensen had posted approximately 450 comments on the Yahoo message board primarily under the alias 'investor.texas' over a period of approximately two months. In reviewing the various posts, the Board determined that they were inappropriate. Mr. Jensen acknowledged making these postings. The Company acted swiftly, as it took approximately two weeks from the time of the Audit Committee's notification to the time of Mr. Jensen's suspension, which was followed by his resignation on October 14, 2011.
The investigation also determined that Mr. Jensen's activities were the actions of a single individual, and found no evidence that any other Company executives or employees were either involved in the matter or aware of Mr. Jensen's activities. As previously reported, the Company believes that Mr. Jensen's actions do not impact or have an effect on the historical financial results or audited financial statements of the Company.
The Company has also voluntarily reported this information to the Securities and Exchange Commission and will fully cooperate with any investigation of this matter.
The Company believes that this incident is the unfortunate lapse of judgment of a single individual and that Mr. Jensen's actions were in direct conflict with the culture and expectations the Company has regarding the behavior of all of its employees. The Company acted swiftly, and in the best interest of all of USA Technologies' stakeholders -- including its customers, shareholders and employees. If the Company takes any solace, it is in the propriety and effectiveness of its internal controls, which identified, investigated and acted upon the allegations swiftly and decisively.
Stephen P. Herbert, Interim Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, added, "While the reasons for Mr. Jensen's resignation are disappointing, we believe that his actions have in no way influenced USA Technologies' business operations. We continue to execute well on the growth opportunity in the small-ticket cashless payment and machine-to-machine telemetry sectors. Our employees continue to remain focused on serving customers, expanding our customer base, and enhancing shareholder value."
The Board of Directors believes that USA Technologies is privileged to have a talented and experienced management team, and would like to thank Steve for accepting the interim Chief Executive Officer and Chairman positions, as well as thank all of the dedicated USA Technologies employees for their efforts to sustain the high levels of performance for which we are known.
Not according to the report put out by Roger McNamee of Elevation Partners.
Shows their predictions on longterm technical trends, driven by HTML5 and content providers. They have a significant position in Facebook, by the way, so they may be biased. As for their smarts, I dunno, as they invested in Palm as well. Still it's an interesting report if interested in their opinion about tech trends.
http://elevation.com/downloads/Tech_Investing_Hypotheses_10-06-11_v6.41.pdf
If SHOM business is worth as much as we've been led to believe, why does mgt not just take this one under, that is, offer to buy all shares (it doesn't already own) at a ridiculous price, like half a penny a share?
OT: kozuh, your racism gives a bad name to all morbidly obese black lesbians. Comprende, you silly coneho?
By the way, to the uninitiated, kozuh and I like to display inappropriate adolescent behavior and err on the side of ridiculous at any opportunity.
Wondering what's the average revenue of each Encore franchisee.
Also wondering if he's tracking annual revenue growth for each franchisee as well. I'm not terribly far from Lyman, SC, so I may try to drive down and meet with him sometime to hear what is going on and look at the software they make available to franchisees.
Has anyone spoken to Mr. Sarvis since last week's news?
Seems like he should have something positive to say about the situation (to lessen his obvious embarrassment or to reduce his liability for delaying notifying stockholders for so long).
That said, I thought his business model was better w/o merger plans, particularly in that Encore nursing services should continue contributing to revenues and profits (after he stops paying thru the nose for back-audits).
Regards,
'peeker
OT: Not quite sure I get the point. Are you suggesting that if you season liberally with Tobasco sauce before eating your roll of nickels, you'll produce ingots that are hotter than a $2 pistol?
Mart Resources Inc. - MMT.V, $0.47
Operational Update
Union Securities Update
Warren Verbonac 403-205-2224 wverbonac@union-securities.com 12-Oct-11
Stock Rating: Buy Target Price: $0.90
Mart is a Canadian company producing light sweet crude oil from high productivity wells onshore Nigeria. The Field Production Sharing Agreement entitles Mart to share in net revenues from the Umusadege Field at rates ranging from 50% to 82.5 %.
The Company has offices in London, England and Lagos, Nigeria.
Source: Bigcharts.com
Developments
Mart released test results from the UMU 8 well.
Comments
Cumulative production tests from three zones in the UMU 8 well was 7,661 bd. Two zones did not flow, possibly due to completion issues which are being investigated and may be the reason the cumulative test came in under the UMU 7 rate of 10,373 bd, and the UMU 6 rate of 14,319 bd.
We expect the initial gross production of the UMU 8 well to be similar to the 3,350-4,000 bd that the two prior wells, drilled from the same well pad, experienced. Mart’s share of net revenue from UMU 8, under its production sharing agreement, should be approximately 70%.
The drilling rig is being moved to a new well pad and is expected to commence drilling the UMU 9 location within a few days.
September production averaged 7,076 bd, during Q2 production averaged 5,825 bd and in Q1 3,699 bd.
Valuation and Recommendation
Mart’s success in bringing in high productivity wells is expected to continue this year and next year, resulting in continued growth in production and cash flow, with only minor interruptions likely in pipelining.
Mart is trading at less than our 2012 cash flow estimate of $0.58, based on production averaging 8,000 bd – a conservative estimate if the Company maintains its rate of drilling and is able to ship all of its production. Also due to the fluctuating share of production, we believe the production estimate is nonetheless prudent for valuation purposes.
Mart’s 3P reserves are 46.1 million barrels, with an asset value of $2.59 per share. The Company’s 2P reserves of 21.0 million barrels provide an asset value of $1.37 per share.
We maintain our Buy recommendation, based on the combination of the value of the stock price, and the growth emanating from a high-quality, geologically low-risk, oil field.
OT: Thanks!
OT: Definitely not MKRS.ob, as that would be specifically prohibited as an example of "pump&dump garbage".
Actually I thought this was a reasonable place to post something I thought was an interesting read, so thanks for your expression of encouragement.
Are we having a bad day yet?
'peeker