>> getmenews 2008

I can duplicate your number 2008 with a different but much simpler method:

2008.16 = [0.618:(2047.41:1944.65)]
2047.41 & 1944.65 can be found in the table in this chart http://www.chartupload.com/images/87752122720963372823.jpg

So far, the ATH (intraday basis) is 2011.17, I have a 2012.25 in this chart http://www.chartupload.com/images/61360258892975648112.jpg.

There were good reasons I came out a pivotal zone 1994-2019. Index had trapped in (the lower side of) this zone for 12 trading days (08/21-09/08), the word “pivotal” make sense.
imho, for initiating a large swing trade on short side, it is safer to see index closing below the short term bear gauge 1986.06-1976.74 [0.236/0.3236:(1904.78:2011.17)]. this is somewhat a trade off from risk management.
Anyway, when you are right, you are bright.
- Trade Safe & Good Luck!

09/08/14 USD chart

USD is deploying the "final" 'c'.

daily H/L downloaded form data source http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data

09/06/14 SPX Cycles

The actions in the next few weeks (center 09/18 +/-, see chart) will corroborate for a major decline to take hold.

To be elaborated.

09/05/14 SPX Misc.

(1) Review:
________________________________________
05/26:
1931.41/1.786 is the pivot/inflection point to gauge whether SPX will enter the zone 1970-2050.

08/16:
new high on breaking up resistance: 1970.95-1972.89
________________________________________

On September 4, index marked an ATH 2,011.17, one of the projected numbers is 2012.25.

(2) Strategy:
GTC sell long positions, installed.

(3) Cycle:
To be posted in a separate post

(4) Outline:
Bull market, up trend. see criteria
Index pokes into the pivotal /target zone 1994-2019 with the possibility of rampping to 2047.41.

(5) Projections:

(5.1) Use large reference frame, chart 2.
The next major target is 2130.46 (see table in chart)
middle term high target zone: 2047.41-2069.93 (see table in chart)

(5.2) Use local reference frame, chart 1.
short term high target zone:
2013.31, 2026.13, 2036.50, (2046.86)
2012.25, 2019.19, 2037.98

(5.3) short term bear gauge:
1986.06-1976.74, floating with ATH,
(0.236/0.3236 : 1904.78 : 2011.17)

chart 1


chart 2

09/04/14 SPX pivotal zone 1994-2019

On 08/21, SPX pokes into the (weather-vane type) pivotal zone 1994-2019. It has been 10 trading days without seeing “punching through” this zone so that the odd is increasing that we are getting closer to the final advance.

09/04 - intraday high & ATH 2011.17
One of the projection is 2012.25. see chart: http://www.chartupload.com/images/87752122720963372823.jpg

short term bear gauge 1986.06-1976.74 (0.236-0.3236, 1904.76-2011.17)

immediate resistance: 2012.25-2019.19

08/30/14 Index pokes into the pivotal/target zone 1994-2019

Index pokes into the pivotal /target zone 1994-2019 with the possibility of ramping to 2047.41.

The next major target is 2130.46.
short term bear gauge: 1981 +/- (0.236:1904.76:2005.0)


A garrulous Told-You archive:

After Labor day

In year 2000, Labor Day falls on first Monday of September, 09/04/2000. US Stock market declined after the Labor day holiday dramatically.

In 2007, big decline started after October 11.

Labor Day in 2014 is on Monday, the 1st of September.
it is about time to see big drop in middle September thru October.

One Man's View of the World by Lee-Kuan-Yew

Lee Kuan Yew - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Kuan_Yew

Geo-Economic: Insight China (5)

This series outline the competing status in the global economy.

Other than "Jobs shit to off-shore", Losing dominance in global competition is a ‘chronic’ issue, it is bitter and merciless.

Beidou Navigation Satellite System (Chinese GPS alternative)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beidou_Navigation_Satellite_System

Beidou, BDS
In China, ‘Big Dipper’ pronounces as ‘Beidou’ (the seven brightest stars in constellation Ursa Major.)

Global Navigation Satellite System GNSS

quick snapshot (56 seconds:)-

The whole GNSS requires satellite launch/Telecommunication/Ground tracking station/receiver chips .. it is an integrated technology-capital intensive industry. Beidou is another step that China is becoming a major power.

The US GPS has 32 satellites all in medium earth orbits with no geostationary ones. China’s BDS will have 35 satellites, 5 of which in geostationary orbits, 27 in medium earth orbits and 3 in inclined geosynchronous orbit. The design will provide better accuracy than GPS when system is fully implemented.

BDS uses vertical version map for better resolution. In the vertical version map, US locates in the north of China. In between is the Arctic. This relationship also reflects the shortest distance from Beijing to Washington DC is taking the route through Arctic directly.

map:
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-y2eaKA2coGs/Ul0ew4uuUEI/AAAAAAAAHfs/WfTOzkbp3Lw/w2347-h3173/dst20130909.jpg

China’s Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) has been providing services for the Asia-Pacific region since December 2012. So far, BDS has been able to provide positioning data between longitude 55°E to 180°E and from latitude 55°S to 55°N. It cannot provide global coverage because only 16 of its planned 35 satellites have been launched. China is seeking to have global coverage for Beidou by 2020

Its civil services has similar accuracy to GPS (BDS: 2.5 meters, this is an in-progressive data), but the positioning accuracy of its exclusive military service for China and Pakistan is said to be 10 centimeters. (Note: GPS remains the more accurate navigation system, with an accuracy of 1.8 meters, while Glonass is accurate to 2.9 meters.)

fourth-generation high-performance Beidou GPS navigation chip
chip's positioning accuracy is 2.5 meters.


Beidou/GNSS navigation chips/modules have achieved volume production with similar international key performance parameters. By the end of first quarter of 2014, domestic BDS/GNSS navigation module sales have reached over 2 million.

The Chinese government sees the success of Beidou as critical for successful, accurate, and independent navigation for military purposes, including the guidance of missiles, warships, and attack aircraft. They are quick to point out, however, that the implications reach far beyond militaristic designs and work for civilian purposes as well.

The Beidou Navigation System is now playing a crucial role in China's military exercises, including the Mission Action 2013 military exercise that kicked off on Sept. 10, 2013, The system demonstrated a capability of covering PLA units fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously. "The era of China relying on a foreign satellite navigation system is in the past," Xinhua News agency said. "The era of China's Beidou has arrived."

Satellite assembly and test


Launching of the 12th and 13th BeiDou navigation satellites


Sun Jiadong, Chief Designer of BeiDou Navigation Satellite System,
April, 1929 - 85 years old, retired


BeiDou System research team, averaged age below 30


school bus tracking - Qingdao China


Security patrol - Shanghai China


Terminal on city-owned vehicle - Guangzhou China


Beidou offers something no other GPS system does offer though by providing telecommunication services. In addition to providing users with location and time information, Beidou also allows them to communicate with other users through text messages.

One of the BDS Ground station in Kashgar China (near the border with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan)


GPS and its three main competitors: GLONASS, Beidou, Galileo

This year Russia plans to sign an agreement with China over placing three GLONASS ground stations in the country and placing three Chinese stations Beidou in Russia. Both navigation systems can operate well together.

sources:
http://www.beidou.gov.cn/2014/07/10/2014071069f0509fad6345879db72c467806fa42.html
http://tiananmenstremendousachievements.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/chinas-beidou-satellite-positioning-system-better-than-us-gps/

http://www.liveviewgps.com/blog/gps-main-competitors-galileo-beidou-glonass/
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/22/breakout-beidou-idUSL4N0JJ0J320131222
http://newhub.shafaqna.com/EN/NN/783241
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/46947/201407/13671.html
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2014/08/11/7965170.htm
http://www.beidou.gov.cn/en/indexphotos_4.html

08/24/14 SPX

Review:
On 08/21 SPX marked ATH 1994.76, one of the projected numbers is 1994.08, see chart.

Outline:
SPX index is in up trend.

Projections:

 
 short term high target zone: 1994.08-2019.19 
                              see chart. 
 short term bear gauge:       1973.52 +/- 
                              (0.236:1994.76:1904.78) 
 short term low targets:  1st 1960.39-1949.77 
                          2nd 1939.15-1924.04 
                          3rd 1914.21-1883.27

NDX looks ripe, resistance: 4055 (approx.)

imho -
for short term low target: 4000.87 +/-
resistance: 4055 (approx.)

open gaps (support zone)
(1) 3997.08-4000.46
(2) 3916.73-3921.44

prior high
3997.50 (07/24)

50SMA as of 08/21
3900.06 ascending

08/21/14 SPX

intraday high 1991.59 (08/21/14, 10am EDT)

08/16/14 SPX

In last week, SPX poked into support zone 1912.35-1881.99 (posted on 08/03) and marked an intraday low 1904.78 on 08/07.

Perceptions:
(1) resistance: 1970.95-1972.89 (0.764-0.786, 1991.39-1904.78), will see new high on breaking up this resistance.
(2) support: 1919.37-1910.52, 1886.28-1877.43 (0.618,1.000, 1991.39-1904.78, 1972.89, 1964.04)
(3) bearish gauge for near term: 1949.61

The wave count is for pictorial view. Those sub-counts has been eliminated intentionally. In this way, you will not be haunted by the wave quagmire. In essence, chart says the status for wave 3 (with a circle) is pending.

08/16/14 Revisit the Watch list

swap out/swap in.
i have GTC sell limit orders for core positions. also looking for good targets, for examples: GSK TOT ESV ... etc, no Buy actions yet.

for your reference, i reinstated the watch list in "My stocks".
Do Your own DD.

(Those stocks i mentioned here such as:) GLNG CHL LYB keep making new highs (52-weeks and/or ATH), in particular, GLNG has gained +57% since i posed the info on 03/18/14 01:53:38 PM.

Stocks Hit An Air Pocket After Ukraine Headlines

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/market-update-august-15-2014-8#ixzz3ATVh3z1d

>> Is possible spx stalls between 1963-1970

Thx

1970 in line with quite a few technicians'
so let us give a few more points for leeway.

I guess once Bull pushes over 1970 decisively, it will override the following bearish call.

numbers in italic fonts are my best match-up (www.wavetrack.com has an unique way to calculate).
A very informative chart can be found in the second quote (can not be hot linked)

08/14/14 Geo-Economic - The great transition (3)

Fed is taking the advantage of Dollar's Hegemony so that they can print out of thin air. How long can they do this?

SPX 08/14/14 SPX

Back to neutral, immediate resistance 1954.26 (0.618)

archive:
------------------------------
bearish gauges:
dips below 1949.61 enter near term bearish zone
dips below 1852.24 enter middle term bearish zone

08/03/14
support 1912.35-1881.99 (zone 3)
resistance 1931.57-1949.61
-------------------------------

>> Japan's Q2 GDP

08/12/14 SPX

synopsis

hit 1944.90 vs. 1944.82/0.500 (1984.85-1904.78) & reversed

bearish gauges:
dips below 1949.61 enter near term bearish zone
dips below 1852.24 enter middle term bearish zone

(1) Magnitude

08/03/14
support 1912.35-1881.99 (zone 3)
resistance 1931.57-1949.61


(2) Time window

08/05/14
A local Low in between 08/01-08/12 (transpired 08/07)

08/01/14
08/22 +/- & 09/15 +/-



An old chart but I removed the wave counts partially so that it will not 'disturb' your perception.


20SMA crosses below 50SMA

>>(jumanji0881) Made in America

"in far structured": too "complicated" to "re-structure"

08/09/14 SPX

strategy:
closing long-held core positions via GTC Sell Limit orders, with proceeds to accumulate new targets.

synopsis:
The target zone 1912.35-1881.99 has been met.
SPX retraced near 1902.88/0.500 (1991.39-1814.36), marked an intraday low 1904.78 on 08/07.

We need SPX to close below 1909.37 to see better odds on accessing the lower band of 1912.35-1881.99. It did not, on 08/07, S&P closed at 1,909.57, 0.20 point higher than 1909.37; On the next session (08/08), SPX closed at 1831.59, 0.02 points off 1831.57/0.236 (1991.39-1737.92).

bearish gauges:
dips below 1949.61 enter near term bearish zone
dips below 1852.24 enter middle term bearish zone

near support zones:
(1st) 1934.10-1923.76
(2nd) 1919.79-1912.35
(3rd) 1912.35-1881.99 ( 1909.37 1902.88 1894.56 1888.86 )

E-wave
(1) Wave iii is complete.
(2) Dips below 1852.24, then wave (5) is complete.
Wave counts for pictorial illustration only, avoid trapping into wave quagmire (being "hanuted")
wave chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/12511927512222468089.jpg

08/07/14 SPX DJI

SPX
accessing 3rd support zone, intraday day low 1907.56, in progress

support zones:
(1st) 1934.10-1923.76,
(2nd) 1919.79-1912.35
(3rd) 1912.35-1881.99 ( 1909.37 1902.88 1894.56 1888.86 )

prognosis
wave iii is complete.

DJI
intraday low 16349.88, in progress

prognosis
(1) 16343.01, 0.4465=1.786/4, 17151.56-15340.69
(2) holding by 200 SMA

>> what-heppans if tha merket clusos-baluw 1917.44 today?

1919.78-<1917.44>-1912.35, see the red line in the table?

close below 1909.37, focus on the frame 1991.39-1737.92

support 1912.35-1881.99, time window till 08/12

08/05/14 COP GSK

COP GTC Sell limit order activated.

so far i sold MCHP. JNJ, COP.

My hands are itching on GSK

WaveTrack International | NEWS ALERT!

to be in "fair of use", I also quote their ads.

comments:

(1) WaveTrack wave (4) target 1660
(2) Circles around in so many posts, the conclusion remains the same.

08/05/14 SPX

SPX bounced from 1916.37 & met resistance 1942.53 (0.382)
The set up give E-waves many “alternative” routes until verdicts from market.

support 1912.35-1881.99
resistance 1931.57-1949.61

Near term
A local Low in between 08/01-08/12, that means to test 1916.37 or to see a new local low in between 1881.99-1912.35

middle term
a cycle high in early Nov. is possible (to be revised upon developing status)

Bil-Gross Just Saw His 15th-Straight Month Of Outflows

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gross-just-saw-his-15th-straight-month-of-outflows-2014-8#ixzz39RrPL3cj


comments:
However, TBT TBF moves up very little. still traps in the quagmire.

08/04/14 Review "Calculate the Pullback target"

1991.39 * 0.96191 = 1915.54 (actual 1916.37 on 08/01)

This method says 1916.37 is a meaningful point but does not imply thus "the Low" we are hunting for. it could be one of the Low(s) down the road.

Other than Fibonacci ratios, the stock market Low follow a natural law occasionally.

italic fonts - Edit for clarity

08/03/14 SPX

SPX poked in the 2nd support zone 1919.79-1912.35 & marked an intraday low 1916.37 on 08/01, The lowest tentative target for wave iv (1912.35) has not been met decisively.

support 1912.35-1881.99
resistance 1931.57-1949.61

wait for new trajectory for further speculation

FWIW: Investing Like A Billionaire With The iBillionaire ETF

FWIW

>> Full moon often marks lows

ahimsak

Tks,

One of my core position JNJ GTC Sell limit order activated on 08/01, & sold MCHP on 07/25. The rest of my GTC sell order remains pending.
I am not a quick trader, but, this is a time period to look overall status seriously, I may use the "fund" freed from JNJ/MCHP to buy some falling angles, such as GSK.

A Guide to the Donald-Bradley Siderograph Indicator's Turn-Dates

Review:

(1)
SPX peak date 07/24
- 02/07-0724 117 TDs, 08/2813-02/05/14 110 TD)
DJI peak date 07/17

(2)
Siderograph (star graph) shows its uncanny performance
( see Standard Version and Deconstructed Version in the following quotes)

(rab120) $SPX Hurst Coming 40 Week Low

Link creditor rab120

I came out two dates: 08/22 +/- & 09/15 +/- ( Market will close on Labor Day -- September 1), don't know which one will dominate, it could be a nested zone. (to be elaborated when transpires)

08/01/14 At pivotal points, (2)

The pivot is (1934+1912)/2 = 1923 (0.382)

Since the index poked into the 2nd support zone 1919.79-1912.35, there is a possibility it switches into the larger frame 1991.39-1737.92. So far, index has been rejected by the resistance 1931.57 (gauge for short term bounce).


08/01/14 At pivotal points 11:27:26 AM
DJI
support 16450-16460
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=104496327

SPX
support 1934.10-1923.76, 1919.79-1912.35
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=104774927

Investor Hub script


This site try to load too many "bad boys", sometimes it slows down the loading, very annoying.


for example:

https://choices.truste.com/ca?aid=tradedesk01&pid=tradedesk01&cid=0511td728x90&w=728&h=90&plc=tr&c=tradedesk01cont3&js=2

MIME Type: text/javascript

08/01/14 At pivotal points

Red color: current status - in progress

07/31/14 DJI SPX Gold GDX

DJI
07/31 intraday low 16714.93, in progress, nearby FIB point 16717.52 (0.382)
bear early gauge 16805-16810, support 16450-16460
chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/93055898386046847582.jpg

SPX
07/31 intraday low 1947.96, in progress, nearby FIB point 1949.61 (0.236)
bear early gauge 1949.61, support 1934.10-1923.76, 1919.79-1912.35

Gold
down trend, breakout zone 1326-1329
chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/79054466942015757731.jpg

GDX
down trend, a minimum bounce requirement is 0.236/28.50
chart http://forexrainbow.com/images/44460034812378509181.jpg

07/30/14 DJI

intraday low 16817.16

FOMC release

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20140730a.htm

Release Date: July 30, 2014
For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that growth in economic activity rebounded in the second quarter. Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat.

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in August, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against was Charles I. Plosser who objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.

Statement Regarding Purchases of Treasury Securities and Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (PDF)

2014 Monetary Policy Releases