Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
What are the futures?
Did you watch Bloomberg this weekend?
A defender of housing/housing markets/housing stocks was given the floor. I was dumbfounded a one of his answers.
Lane pointed out the 20% Down Payment norm of the early '80's & questioned him about the 'little to none' (and the risk associated with that type of loan for the lender) down payments currently be made.
His answer? Paraphrased, it was that Boomers (sic: who have a great deal of equity in their primary home) are pulling out that equity & putting 20-30% down on a second home. That's a solid loan!
GIVE ME A BREAK! A 30-yr loan to a Thirty-something is a LOT different than a 30-yr loan too a Fifty-something!!! That (in itself) is a risk! And, it only takes a fowled Aeorta, or a bad case of liver problems, or...... 'name that ailment'.... and the 'solid loan' is ***PUFFFF**** --> High Risk!
I came off of the couch screaming at the television
!!! Get this--> for about the next ten minutes! Hubby let me roll... what more could he do???
I was viewing the charts to see it they indicated a long term trend change (which they DID in Mar 2003). I would find any indicator (or a combination of indicators) which reflected a TREND change extremely valuable. The risk for a movement of investment would be very low if confirmation of indicators nailed the moment. Granted, one must be extremely objective in reading the graphs, but the "gut feeling" as to where we stand in the business community going forward is VERY difficult to overcome when merging the two views.
But alas, this indicator IS valuable.
With regard to HDI... there went my Sunday. Too long to post here, soooooooooo.... You have mail!
I'm printing this one out, then going back to the graphs! I certainly appreciate your comments.
Like Arnold said, "I'll be back".
Elena
I'm printing this one out, then going back to the graphs! I certainly appreciate your comments.
Like Arnold said, "I'll be back".
Elena
This is a great position for him to be in!
If those telecom roadside housings are being fabricated for storage of DSL equipment, he has found a goldmine. It is through the DSL expansion that the telecom's will survive.
The control boxes on street intersections are government contracts, no? Again, this is almost recession proof if he is competitive!
Now then, the money is also in the companies that provide the 'content' for all those housings (telecom or control boxes), no? If you tell me that HE furnishes the 'contents' then... uhmmmmmm... I think I want his autograph!
Jokes aside, your daughter should be proud. It's alot of hard work, & I know his material costs are (& have) moved into ungodly territory. Stainless shot to the moon & never came back; plate & structural was up to 350% higher than I've seen it in 20 years and.. aluminum... in my opinion... is not really all that much more than I've seen it at other peaks. Granted, it hovers in & around peak area, but it is NOT doing the astronomical dance that copper has done.
Cyclical Bull trends end with the reappearance of the cyclical Bear trend. Every educated (and worthwhile) speaker or writer freely offered the investing public a reminder of what markets 'do'... where those markets have been (bull territory or bear territory), and how those bull/bear trends appear & reappear throughout all history of markets.
From 2000 to 2003, every analysis had the Bear Trend mentioned and acknowledged. Additionally, they further advised that a strong cyclical bull will appear and then succumb to the cyclical bear trend. They stated that the cyclical bull trend historically lasts about 12-18 months.
For several quarters, the "accomodating Fed" has been given the credit for stopping the "drowning".. but, alas, may actually be the cause of a looming severe drowning in debt.
Sooooooooooo... were we in a Bull Trend (1984-whenever??) that had a loner cyclical Bear (2000-2003) & it has now resumed bull (2003-whenever???)? Orrrrrr... did the Bear Trend (2000 to whenever???) allow for a cyclical bull (2003-2005) within it... only to resume the Bear Trend?
I think the answer is playing out virtually before our eyes day-in and day-out. If the cyclical bull trend lasts about 12-18 months, then we are past that point. I'm trying very, very hard to assess the right answer & not cloud the vision with rose-colored glasses. The historical case for a bull within a bear trend is just that-> a historical fact. It is what it is. And, it repeats without fail. So, here we are at that juncture of finding out what's happening. It's okay that we have different views among our citizens (every juncture like the one we're in had those same opinion differences), but this time, it is WE who are affected! And, frankly, that matters!
Remember those nerves of steel? It took a while, no? HAHAHA! But I got 'em now! I can almost graph your optimism/pessimism from (what, 1998?) within your industry & can almost foretell what's coming economically. I remember your backlog (read: boom thereafter) and your slow-downs (read: recession thereafter). Your industry (so far) has been a great gauge, Court. Really.
Gotta go... probably have written wayyyyyyyyy too much! But then again, to catch up with all of you, I had to READ wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much! Just getting EVEN!
Now then, you have my attention! Let's talk...
I hit this site from your previous reference to it. I know (as do all investors who watch the market) that Mar 2003 ended the cyclical bear & began the cyclical bull. How would I have seen that on your graph?? Pretty clear, no? But, how could I be sure that it wasn't a fake-out like the previous teases for trend change between Mar 2000 to Mar 2003?
Well now...
To humor me, look at the chart NYSE % on this site. Before you do, know that it is not a "fadish" but rather long-time reliable manner of calculating bull/bear sentiment (and its relationship meaning with market activity). It looks a little different than your graph, but only because it is a percent of bulls to bears. I pulled up both your link & my link.. put them side to side... and tried to figure out what in the world told me the most. http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/default.html
Now then, please notice the value on the top of that graph of "55.8%". To see what the 55.8% might mean, click this link... go a quarter way down to see a graph... then read below the graph as to what the percentages tell you. http://www.investorsintelligence.com/x/default.html
The explanation "Low risk area below 30%...Almost everyone who wants to sell has already sold. Once the “play” starts moving up from this area (indicated by reversals on the p&f chart of the bullish %) it is time to start playing the offense i.e. aggressively buy stocks, even volatile technology names and attempt bottom-fishing in stocks at multi-year lows." is telling me that we are not at a trend change. In fact, it gets worse....
Since we KNOW Mar 2003 was the time to buy (in the 30% range), then what about the two previous 20%-38% readings which, with an overlay of the Dow, were pure fake-outs?? I am sooooo confused on this indicator. Am I reading it wrong?? I can only put up both types of sentiment analysis (side-by-side on my terminal) along with a graph of the performance in the Dow & draw conclusion that Sep 2002 was NOT a good time to buy however both graphs say that it was. Moving to Mar 2003, yes! There is a profound inference & correlation. In fact, both manners of analyzing sentiment nailed that moment. I just can't figure the fake-outs. Anyone backing up the truck on the "fake out" periods would have sustained some hefty losses for a period of time before the real turn.
Do you think that the sentiment indicator (both manners of calculating them) can produce more fake-outs on the way down before it nails the turn upward? I realize that it takes months... these small graphs are condensing a goodly length of time... but if we consider the result (6-months from now) for the downturn currently happening in both the economy AND these trader sentiments, then wouldn't the turn be thereafter? Surely know that I am asking this only as a "conclusion" reading a graph... and NOT meaning anything more than technical analysis of the value of what a graph might be telling us. Again, I am somewhat confused & wish I wasn't!
This is a bright spot post, and is very heartening!
What is produced there??? Very curious!
I believe the slowdowns are soooooooo regional & sooooooooo specific (mfg vs retail, etc), that it is the aggregate of it all that hurts. I believe the largest drop in the mfg index in years was reported this past week. Granted, it is an aggregate, but it is very foretelling. It must be experienced before it can be reported. And....
... I just have to report on my age-old barometer of Interstate traffic. That barometer sounds a tad silly, but I have been traveling the EXACT same route covering 30 mi (one-way) at exactly the same time every morning for 12 yrs, 6-days per week.
The tractor trailer units moving both ways on I-75 in the latter 90's was almost 'train-like' and, imho, overwhelming for the average small car! Well now... that barometer moved 'down' during the slowdown of 2000 - 2003 & picked up nicely during '03-'04. It was a steady, strong stream of carriers and there were peaks of heavy traffic for weeks. It almost could be graphed like the S&P index graph.
In January of this year, the traffic truly eased up. I attributed it to University semester breaks/weather/small changes in habit. But, when Feb rolled around, traffic was STILL lean even though the University was in session. Moving to the past three weeks, I can get on the interstate with (some mornings) ZERO need to "merge". The interstate was clear. Still the optimist, I originally thought the clear road was a lucky break...
It is clear to me that the civilian traffic is markedly lower and, simultaneously, the motor carrier traffic is significantly down as well. This would be normal in January, but absolutely abnormal in March or April of any given year.
Something different is happening since January. And, every morning, I'm wondering "where's all the traffic?" I-75 goes from one end of the country to the other... I-64 is a nice cross over to the East/West route and (believe it or not), this juncture of interstates is within 3-days rail of 80% of the population of the United States. It is no wonder that Toyota/satellite plants & other industries move in-and-out of this area. This IS the route I travel and the traffic on that route is extremely indicative of goods moving based upon demand for products.
There are no train-like caravans of motor carriers. There is traffic, however they are experiencing the same thing free-wheeling that I am experiencing. There is no need for braking or slowing down.
Hmmmmmmmmm.
Industrial sales were strong, but you don't think they will continue going forward? Neither do I !!!
GE truly benefited from the "new asset" bonus depreciation incentive that drove manufacturing sales in 2004. It's gone... nada... the lines for new asset purchases have disappeared. How can anyone do a repeat of last year, much less report continued growth???
Then, if I understand right, it would be another term for the time in which there is ' total capitulation '?
On television last night (don't ask which station... I was hopping through the channels), a market analyst stated that there was significant capitulation in Friday's market action, especially considering the action of the prior days. He felt that those stats could very well provide for a short term bounce Monday (although he felt there could be more downside thereafter due to lack of liquidity or market stimulus).
He couldn't, based on what he was trying to convey, have said "blow off bottom" if he truly felt there was more downside. Is that right? He would reserve that term for the time he thought all downside was exhausted.... OR.... can he have used it intermittantly during a multiple downside trend??
Trust me, if I get this down, I will certainly understand what folks are saying when they say it! I think my confusion is like "the war is over"... <- someone surrendered??? ...Or... if they said "the $%^# surrendered", I would absolutely KNOW they were saying "the war is over", AND I would know who won.
And... I certainly thank you for helping!
What is a 'blow off bottom"?
We're at 10,080! You are r-e-a-l-l-y tea-leavin' it! And (of course), I'm listening.
You think 9700 will be a turn? I can back up the truck, but something inside tells me that you are absolutely right-> they will overdo the decline.
Hey guy... take a look at your post #14584...
Are you "tea leavin'" it??? {{{{{{{ smile }}}}}}
Yes, this site is slow today. Almost couldn't read all during lunch.
Much thanks to all for your posts on gallons/barrel of oil. I had never known those facts!
Liquidating securities to pay taxes? Even if folks were working with a 3-day settlement broker, they could still cover the check....
Just thinkin' the nuts & bolts of it all.
Nick,
I like that nothing is added...
Remember, liquidity on IRA funding loses all steam (read that: liquidity) tomorrow. Hard to imagine a rising market without the profit sharing deposits (March) & IRA funding (Apr). What's next.. nada.
Should be interesting.
As an aside, and maybe I did things right this time, I put every dime I had into money markets at close of 12/29/04. We've had an up-and-down bouncing market since then, but I'm still ahead. Court is telling you correctly -- s-l-o-w . The problems are soooooooooo systemic, that the piddly extra $5/wk on the tank of gas is NOT the killer problem with our economy. Don't buy their program... we're here telling you whats happening in the trenches. It's not pleasant. And, it's not the headlines.
Not really...
If we don't do something with healthcare costs, Doctors/pharmacies/hospitals will own all the assets of this company BEHIND the banks.
There are lawyers who have excellent advice as to how to protect your assets from those kinds of seizures in the event of a catastrophic (or even mild) illness event. You didn't work all your life to give everything to a hospital or doctor... there are trusts that can be made... but I think you need to do it a "tad" in advance !
Why shouldn't they worry????
The American taxpayer is about to support the mishaps & gargantuan errors of both of them! Add the taxpayer woes in social security, woes in corporate legacy costs, woes in Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp, wores in our monthly medicine & healthcare ... <--- all of which are SHORT TERM and are "at" ( or nearly "at") our front door ... and... well... they better worry ! These are the biggest issues I have ever seen our populace face and guess what? They're are NOT facing it, they are stroking the problems.
I never want to be a "50 something" livin' a proscribed social level cuz "everyone's doing it". When they have nothing, they will say "everyone has nothing"... & they'll feel comfortable with that?? Blend in with the masses? I'd rather have my head above water.
Bravo! And I ditto that one!
Ahhhhhh, the canon!
It's waiting for July 4, but I must admit that we shot potato's all o-v-e-r the farm! Good way to pulvarize them, no?
Must make my two-cent comment on the turkeys:
We are over run with deer who (boldly) graze the fields every morning/evening. Throughout the day, they frollick & act like little children in the playground. When I head out of the driveway, they just watch without moving. Well now... about a week ago, I headed down the driveway & commenced to count the deer. They all stood without movement, but there was this HUGE black thing "just a gettin' it" from my front view (left to right). It was surreal, as if time stopped with stationary deer, and this huge black thing running amidst them. I thought it was a huge buzzard... nahhhhhhh... tooooo huge for that! Maybe an ostrich.... duhhhhhh... no. Doggone! It was the biggest turkey I have ever (EVER) seen! I braked, sat in awe, & watched it literally RUN across the next 4 acres without stopping. I trully wish I had it on film. It was sooooooooooo surreal.
I have never seen anything like that. It was sooooo big, I later thought that it could be cooked ONLY in a commerical oven. Maybe a pizza oven, at that!
Prices are strong, Alan. You might wince a bit. Soooooooo sorry!
Different industry here, but DITTO.
Nick...
This is IRA funding... an event NO ONE talks about... but rather, an upward moving market with lots of 'philosophical' explanations.
Nothing philosophical is here... it's nothing more than liquidity doing what liquidity always does. When the water spicket turns off, then... well... lack of liquidity does what lack of liquidity always does. And, they'll spin that one too WITHOUT mentioning those IRA fundings they just enjoyed.
What a market, no??!! :)
You ARE doing the right thing with the shorts...
This is the IRA funding bounce. I'm sure of it. Ignore what the Eggheads say regarding reasons for any bounce within this timeframe (thru the 14th).
Both you & Alan were born for these fluxuations! Go for it!
Gotta go.. but I remember v-e-r-y well the days of "10200-10400" trading range...
You made alot of trades & nailed some very nice profits. I think that's when you had your m-o-s-t fun!!
Then, before lunch is over, let me tell you about one of my granny's survivor stories (if Nick doesn't mind)...
.... Granny had 6 children & one on the way. It was 1931 & her husband was a jeweler. Need I say more?
Everything was scarce. But... life was gooooooooood cuz they had TWO eggs!!
The eggs? Well now... you break put the yolks in one bowl and the whites in a second bowl. The yolks will yield a yellow cake; the whites yield a white cake. No one with any common sense put the WHOLE egg in ONE cake! And, if you had TWO cakes on the same day, you were the Queen of the block!
Now, THAT's what I call TOUGH TIMES!
Short phrases but TRUE words! I totally agree!
Hey, Court... did you get this clip from the Rude Awakening? I can't help but l-o-v-e Eric Fry's witty perspective. It's like he sees the world with a convoluted pair of glasses. Dannnnnnnng. I really like his glasses! This is wordy, but worth reading... I left a little out to entice you to read the original... but, my favorite part? "To preview our conclusion: Financial assets that melt slowly when exposed to extreme heat are likely to perform better than those that burst into flames"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1994 REVISITED, By Eric J. Fry
...The chairman's quarter-point rate hike – and his
accompanying verbiage – stunned the gold market, while also
rocking most other financial markets. But despite gold's
near-death experience this week, we suspect it will rise
again...along with most other commodity markets.
The commodity bull market might be out of breath, but we
doubt it will suffocate.
Last Tuesday, around 2:15 Eastern Time, the benign American
financial environment suddenly assumed a very menacing
demeanor. At that very moment, Chairman Greenspan hiked
short-term interest rates one-quarter point to 2.75%.
Within minutes, investors rushed to sell stocks, bonds,
oil, gold and every other financial asset that wasn't
bolted to the floor. By day's end, the Dow had dropped
nearly 100 points, crude oil had slipped nearly two dollars
from its high and gold had tumbled nearly 10 dollars.
The Fed's itty-bitty adjustment to its itty-bitty interest
rate should not have produced such a mess. After all,
nearly every economist and investor in the land had
anticipated this exact move. Apparently, however, all these
economists and investors were not prepared to learn that
the chairman considered inflation to be a problem.
"Though longer-term inflation expectations remain well
contained," declared the Fed's statement accompanying its
rate hike, "pressures on inflation have picked up in recent
months and pricing power is more evident."
This simple phrase erased billions of dollars of paper
wealth in the span of a couple hours.
It is true, of course, that rising rates are not usually a
great thing for asset prices. But they are not always
disastrous. To generalize, FALLING interests rates tend to
encourage speculation in all manner of financial assets.
Conversely, rising rates tend to reacquaint investors with
the concept of risk-aversion. And a risk-averse investor is
usually a seller of speculative of financial assets like
emerging market stocks and bonds, as well as U.S. junk
bonds and small cap stocks. In short, the riskier the
asset, the more damaging the effects of rising rates...at
least that's the conventional wisdom.
If this wisdom proves true during this particular interest
rate cycle, the red-hot emerging market stocks and U.S.
small caps ..... might be due for a lengthy
cooling off period.
However, commodities and resource stocks are somewhat more
difficult to handicap. That's because they are very
schizophrenic creatures in a rising rate environment. They
are speculative, to be sure. But they are also inflation
hedges, which tend to excel during cycles of rising
interest rates.
Therefore, this week's steep sell-off in nearly every
financial asset – including gold – compels us to ask
ourselves two questions: 1) Is this the beginning of a
serious correction in financial asset prices? 2) Once this
correction of uncertain duration runs its course, which
financial assets are most likely to reassert themselves.
To preview our conclusion: Financial assets that melt
slowly when exposed to extreme heat are likely to perform
better than those that burst into flames.
As a guide to the future, let's examine a small slice of
recent history: 1994.
The most recent example of a "shocking" rate hike by the
Fed occurred 11 years ago, on February 4, 1994. On that
fateful day, recalls Matein Khalid of the Khaleej Times,
"Chairman Greenspan dropped a bombshell on Wall Street. The
Fed raised overnight Funds Rate from 3 to 3.25 percent. To
the world, this was no big deal, a routine monetary
tightening response to a slight up tick in inflation and
GDP growth. However, on Wall Street, it was pure panic, a
Black Death in the capital markets. Within two months, an
estimated $1.5 trillion was wiped out in the bond
markets...Orange County, the wealthiest in the United
States, went bankrupt. David Askin, one of world's leading
mortgage derivates managers, blew up his entire $600
million hedge fund. Dozens of supposedly 'safe' U.S.
Treasury and money market funds lost 10-30 per cent of
their capital whose beneficiaries were literally widows and
orphans. Proctor and Gamble, which is supposed to make
money selling pampers, needed pampers itself as its
structured Libor notes went ballistic."
90 days after Greenspan's February 1994 shocker, every
major financial market had fallen, especially the bond
market. 10-year bond yields soared from 5.87% to 7.11%. The
commodity markets shared the bond market's pain, as the
rising rate trend threatened to slow the world economy and
curtail demand for natural resources.
However, one year after Greenspan's infamous rate hike, the
S&P 500 and the CRB Index had both recouped their losses.
Crude oil was up 20% and copper – the commodity with a PhD
in economics – had gained 50%. In other words, Greenspan's
"shocking" rate hike of February 1994 jolted the commodity
markets, but did not electrocute them.
We expect history to repeat itself. In other words, the
commodity bull market is merely resting, not retiring. In
the "oil glut" days of 1994, the supply of oil swamped
demand. What's more, China consumed less than half the oil
per day that it does now...and still crude oil jumped 20%
in the face of rising interest rates. Oil possesses a much
more bullish profile today than it did in 1994, and so do
most other commodities. Whether rates are falling or
rising, supplies struggle to keep pace with demand.
"China's long-run rise is inevitable," observes Justice
Little, co-editor of Outstanding Investments. "Long-term
erosion of the dollar is equally sure. For both of these
reasons, I agree with Jim Rogers' assertions that we are in
the early stages of a commodity bull market that could last
another decade or more."
Even so, Justice admits, "China may have gotten ahead of
itself and the dollar still has the ability to confound in
the near term...We have to be prepared for potentially
rough waters in the latter half of 2005...China is a
compelling long-run story, but in the short run, the dragon
may be close to overheating; Shanghai, for example, is
experiencing a real estate bubble every bit as over-the-top
as Southern California's, and the fidgety nature of 'hot
money' being pumped into China's infrastructure development
is making even the most aggressive money managers nervous.
"In addition, the Federal Reserve is finally admitting what
everyone else saw a long time ago: that inflation is taking
hold and the interest rate hikes may need to accelerate.
The Fed slamming on the brakes could temporarily put the
brakes on U.S. consumption as well, and an ensuing slump in
demand could temporarily take the wind out of crude oil's
sails."
"This is not an alarm signal as much as a watch signal,"
Justice warns. "Crude may yet break through $70 without a
hitch. Given that possibility, however, it's crucial to
recognize that we are entering a delicate stage of the
game. Multiple trends that have been intact for the past
year, if not longer, are showing signs of fraying... and
clear potential for unraveling is at hand."
We acknowledge this potential. But we also acknowledge the
potential for the Federal Reserve to fail in its efforts to
quell inflation, and the potential for global demand trends
to drive commodity prices much higher and the potential for
investors to prefer holding gold to dollars.
In short, we suspect the commodity bull market is more
powerful than Alan Greenspan's lexicon
Alan,
We have some g-o-o-d survivor stories to swap if an avalanche comes, no? This will not be the first!
Frankly, I have confidence in all of us here! But, I must admit, a recession scares me!
They are like an F5 tornado... sucking up all the natural resources & sending them to the land of Oz (or is it O-Zal-he?)
I am more concerned about the "new asset" bonus depreciation expiring on 12/31/04. Prior the expiration, anything 'new' was hard to get. After the expiration, orders 'fell off the cliff' for many manufacturers. When do we get to hear about THAT tidbit? When the 2005 earnings reports come out? And... do you remember Chambers stating that, upon the Y2K expiration, tech orders 'fell off the cliff'?
This is now my main concern. I believe that the expiration date was a line in the sand at the edge of a cliff. I could be wrong, but manufacturing is certainly retreating again (at a time that it usually rebounds, no?)
However, steel hit a peak... is withdrawing... but all it will take is Spring demand from overseas. Not sure if I'm right on this one (since so many folks have rosey glasses within my industry), but I feel the strong demand of last year for 'new equipment' was (along with China) a catapult for the steel prices.
It's IRA time... and the market always likes that.
One of the greatest problems we have before us is recognizing a transition point.
We have experienced energy prices zooming... then falling back... then behaving... then moving up... then falling. The mindset is "surcharge" until it all settles down. And, that 'surcharge', is only for businesses who have lost the ability to absorb EVEN MORE cost amid all of the OTHER excalating costs.
I think that more & more surcharges will be surfacing from more & more businesses in months to come. And, when the mindset finally understands that it's permanent, prices will move accordingly. Watch out for THAT day.
Court,
They actually "DO" have some predictions out there (Re: next recession).
Based on economic indicators: We had 4 straight months of negative economic indicators in 2004. Every other time that this contigous event occurred, a recession followed within one year.
Based on Copper prices: Copper pricing is out-of-this-world. Every time that copper has peaked in the last 100 years, a severe recession followed. Soooooooo.... at what point does it peak????!! We find the peak, we call the recession??!!
Based on Home prices: please refer to your very insightful posts. Yep. That's an event I do NOT want to experience, however I believe that it is inevitable. Toooooooooooo many ripple effects. Toooooooo many broken lives. (Secretly, however, I am relishing the microscope being upon Fannie Mae.) This particular subject would take volumes (and VOLUMES) of posts...
Treasury Curves: The curvy, the better. However, Curvy-to-flattening is foretelling near-term inflationary pressures... whereas the negative curve of 2000 was a precursor to the recession which followed. Should the flattening 'turn negative', we might see the same result??? Until then, I'm not sure that I'm worried too terribly.
Hints of Japan & China reducing participation in future Treasury offerings: gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaadssssssssss. Wheres the 2 Billion per day gonna come from??? And won't Greenspan be happy that he might be outa-there prior to that horrid event?
And... Eric's 'basement printing press'- there you go. I can't imagine the consequences of that one. We already have three currencies in place (old money... of which I love the design most dearly; The replacement money designed for coke-bottle reading glass citizens; and the New & Improved colorful money designed for those that like to put cash up to the sun & see cute portraits). So, which one do we print MORE of???
What about a bounce for window dressing? This IS the week, no? Pop those quarterly statements for pension..
But, then again, aren't manager Libre (sp) averages about to be ranked???!! HAHAHAHAHA! Every morning for the next 5 trading days, managers will be worried about their jobs!
Then, again, April comes next week and (frankly) they can dump all those 'safe names' (disclosed on Top Ten Holdings) & buy all those volatile, never-worth-their-trading-price issues!
Can we lay bets on what they do???
If the March 15 deadline for Profit Sharing/401K deposits STILL is ranked as the biggest corporate injection of cash (recording a larger cash injection than ALL other ELEVEN months combined), then why did we have such a lackluster March? And, when the IRA deposits flow in April, will it (too) be lackluster? And... when May comes around with NO cash injection deadlines... what happens then?
Inquiring minds want to know!
Back on the farm...
We filled the diesel bulk tank yesterday. Price: $2.09/gal (FARM FUEL! Dannnnnnng that dye! ) Projected price later this summer? They said "a cool $2.70/gal".
This translates into big bucks on our corporate fleet movement. We average (IFTA returns) 4.98g/mile. Hundreds of thousands of miles per quarter.
At the next steel party, we'll do a "let's do barge... or barge w/sails" toast. After all, OPEC just got in line to take our bonus'. For that matter, rank-and-file pay increases. And.. uhmmmmm... every category after that!
This is NOT going to be fun. You are dead-on the refinery issue.
H-E-L-L-O!!
The most militant woman on the planet just landed smack-dab on your doorstep AGAIN! And... I am sooooooooooo glad the "WELCOME" mat is s-t-i-l-l there!!!!
Yesterday, I carved out two hours of the day & just hit this site... I read sporadic posts... I was incredibly uplifted!!!! Not just "slightly" uplifted -- "incredibly uplifted". Then, I hit a post by Eric (Mar 10)... he remembered my birthday!! And... Alan responded w/email info. Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaads, I couldn't type! Couldn't reply! I was an emotional M-E-S-S !
But, today, I had my coffee... my spirits are high! And (doggone it), I just HAVE to stand on that welcome mat! I am not even remotely surprised that you all are STILL out there, STILL making money! BRAVO!
Nobody cares 'til it hits home...
Let's just say that you (as a parent) start a college fund for your children. Without fail, you add handsomely to the fund each & every year.
And, over those SAME years, your household expenses exceed your income.
In order cover those excessive expenses, you decide to forego "outside of the family" borrowing. This decision will uphold the perception of "solid credit risk" to the banks AND all outside 'interested' parties. Little does anyone know, including your children, that you borrowed the money from the college fund & left IOU's. Even worse, you continued to disclose the college fund as a FULL asset... and ... you only report "outside of the family" debt on any credit appication.
The day of reckoning approaches... your eldest needs a CHECK out of the college fund. The college won't take IOU's, they want a check. The blind-faithed child stands in awe as his parents scurry to borrow money & get second jobs. But alas, he gets his check & goes merrily off to college.
Now then... child #2 is nearly ready for college... child #3 & 4 are closely approaching collegiate life. Child #1 will ALSO need funding. Mama cries that a crisis is coming.
~~~~~~~~~~ Our government... the Concord Coalition... all newspapers ---> tell the truth to college bound kid. Tell those behind him who hope to go to college. Put the massive (almost incomprehensible problem) into a simplistic 'tale' such as this... a tale that anyone can comprehend.... a tale that anyone can understand. If they DID convey this little tale to the public, folks would FINALLY understand. It takes a simple tale. The solution, however, is complex. The problem will be GREATEST when the bank finds out the TOTAL liability. Kinda like Enron --'off-balance sheet' liabilities.
I'm thinkin' the bull arguments are more short term than the bear arguments.
Given the length of the tight trading range, given that the Naz was the first index to head south... given that the other indexes are following...
... this being on the heels of global breakdown of markets...
Then, would the argument not be that given a tight (somewhat lengthy) trading-range market that a break-out will occur? And that the downside is a viable direction?
A great deal of money sits in mutual funds (still) & is basically about 96% invested (4% cash) moving into this time period. Liquidity can become a problem once the short-term juice is used up.
Frankly, I can't see how the direction can move up here. One of the great lessons that I learned over the past few years is that the market can, and does, operate in a deeply oversold condition for long segments of time. And, for what I've learned (in whole or part) of the Bollinger "breakout" in price is that it can move up or down. Not sure if I comprehend the 'hints' as to which direction.
And truly, the hammer hits the nail when bank notices about rate increases hit the public's post boxes. They are coming in the mail everywhere. Gas pump prices are a wake-up call... the banks' notices will knot the stomach of anyone in deep debt. All terrorism concerns aside, I think when folks take a good, hard look at the debt levels (and, I STILL don't think they have done so), those 'increased rate' notices will surely make them take that hard look. Makes you wonder why Dillard's would consider selling all that juicy debt to GE, no?
Couldn't live without those great graphs, great interpretations!
This is a NICE animation on this post!
Kumbaya...
and
bell bottoms, hip huggers, bell-shaped blouse arms, tatoos, body piercing, 'out of closet' confessionals, tie-dyed tops, harachi sandals, and ummmmmmmmm... hey! Isn't all of this in the current magazines???? Wouldn't that portend (via your example) a Kerry win???!!
Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaads! All that's left is communes & teepees (two-story, of course).
Heck with wheelbarrows! Too much steel (and you can't get them on subways...)
Call Ronco. Fed Ex your latest "Seal-A-Dollar" machine. It takes out all the air & makes it more valuable! Better yet, you CAN get package after package onto a subway with you! Sell straps to make the packages "purse-like".... Handles to make the bags "briefcase-like".
Don't retire, Court! You have this GREAT Ronco machine to market!!
Hahahahahaha! I know... I'm bein' baaaaaaaaaaad again!
Hahahahaha!