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What's your opinion then of the latest divergence relatively speaking between gold/Dollar and the Euro. Terrorist premium building into gold prior to Republican convention/911 and elections?
Right on the money. Great post. (eom)
Zeev, do you watch currencies much? It would seem to me the latest spike in the Dollar is more short covering and intervention than anything. The last thing Greenspan wants is a falling Dollar and a falling market at the same time. If the market is going to rally again ST, I would expect the Dollar to head lower at least ST.
Do you have a read on the Dollar here?
>> I'm not so sure the elections are a positive this time around. <<
Agree. Kerry if he wins (looking more and more likely), will probably raise taxes, may repeal portion of dividend tax treatment, regulate the drug co's and start a trade war with China.
Of course, none of this may come to pass, but this is the perception of some. Of course it's going to impact the markets negatively.
OT - GASOLINE SOLUTION!
How about quit driving SUVs and tax gas double to give people incentives to drive less, car pool and buy more fuel efficient cars. Not buying from SA? They could care less. They'll sell to someone else.
Whoever wrote that piece was a "well meaning"... complete moron.
IB? Stands for what again? Thanks.
Do they track gain/losses for you like E*Trade?
Nice move in STAK off the lows. Yesterday was a gift. My only tech holding. Mostly gold, energy and cash here.
It's one of the cheapest golds around I know on a reserve basis. No debt, and their JV coming on-line during the next 1-2 years hopefully will pay for more development in SA without dilution.
Of course, this board does a much better job of telling the story. It'll do well if gold stocks advance here, but it won't go balistic until gold breaks to new highs north of $450. If you suspect gold to stay in a range of high 3's to low 400's there are probably better plays ST, IT, but I suspect gold is in a very LT bull as such I want a few issues to hold LT here given the recent pullback in the shares in general.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1750
I'm more of a risk/reward investor. On a risk/reward basis this is one of the better plays in the sector, but others may outperform ST, and IT. But if we go above $500 POG and higher that's where this could be a 5-10 bagger over 1-3 years (imho).
Do your own DD though before buying. Just my swag.
GBN is my largest position as well. I think it's going to be a monster LT especially if gold breaks to new highs over the next 1-2 years.
What about the VIX still below 17? Considering the risks inherent in this market seems like far too much complacency for me. Not putting much stock in P/C ratio as most of it seems like hedging existing long positions vs naked shorting.
Do you put any emphasis on the VIX these days or does it only work well in a downtrending market?
>> With mkt indices at lows and semi's leading,
we are in for a big rally.
Oil scare has paralyzed the public and they will be left behind. <<
There certainly is that possibility. Most of the sell-off short term has been related to rate hikes which will likely be phased in over time and may be far more modest than most expect given the fragile nature of the economy.
However, indexes are at critical levels. I still think the next week will probably show more weakness, but if we get hit hard enough it could easily lead much bigger losses ('87 type imho). In terms of oil if you go back and chart it, if we break above $40 in a convincing manner we could run to $45-50 in an eyeblink. There are plenty of catalysts out there for such a scenario. If anything the public is still far too complacent. There are far more negative catalysts going forward than positive ones with regards to the general market/economy.
Do agree that the semis held up well. If this week has continued selling and the semis still hold their ground I'll likely throw some money that way.
Thanks. I'll check it out. Maybe I'll just post more on your thread vs the time it would take to generate a new one, not sure. I think your approach is mostly technical in nature, correct? I like TA for a very quick analysis and I also use it again right before I buy/sell. But I guess I'm still old school in that I want to make sure all the FA jives as well.
I think that TA analysis is an excellent starting point. I'd just like to continue to the conversation every week trying to determine which catalyst are out that may change the current trend over the next 3, 6, 12+ months.
Really haven't promoted yet on SI. Just sending a few feelers around here and a couple PMs just to see if there's any interest at all. It's a time consuming process as you well know so based upon the feedback I've received I think there might be enough interest, but not sure yet if it's SI or I-HUB. I'm not going for a popularity contest or anything. I'd find value if there were as few as 5-10 quality posters who simply stopped by 1-2 times per week to give their current sector analysis, portfolio weighting along with their reasons. In some ways the fewer posts the better. I'd like a thread that I can read fairly quick that'll give me insight into whether or not I should consider switching sectors or reducing/expanding my portfolio weighting. I typically play in no more than 3-4 sectors at any one time - often as few as 2.
I haven't received any feedback yet on how to narrow this down, but it's early.
BTW, I was hoping you'd be one of the fellows that was interested in posting. As a former RRI long myself I've followed your postings/ideas for a while now. From what I can see I think we have similiar tastes in stocks/sectors.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=54921
I might if that's the feedback I get. Doesn't matter to me. Right now I don't even know if people see a need for this type of potential thread. Looking to have less posts in general, but more post related to general sector trends vs just individual stocks.
For those with SI aliases as well I'd appreciate any feedback you may have on a new thread idea:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/subject.gsp?subjectid=54921
>> When do you think the top arrives? <<
Which top? Short term, the powers that be look like they are leaning hard on gold. We could get a short term pullback today or any day after that may take us back all the way to 410 to 415 again.
After that I think we make new highs this year and then we'll have another ST top. But the ultimate top is still years away and may entail 1,000+ gold. Just like the opposite of the Naz though we could have periods that last as much as a 1 year where gold trades sideways to down, but overall we'll see much higher prices in the years to come.
More PPI stuff (Edit)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040401/economy_usa_prices_1.html
>> The Producer Price Index, which measures prices paid to farms, factories and refineries, rose 0.1 percent in February, the Labor Department said, well below the 0.4 percent increase economists on Wall Street had forecast. <<
No inflation???? Just look at the CRB...
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$CRB,uu[h,a]waclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pr...
>> Prices for SUVs and light trucks dropped 1.9 percent on the heels of a big 1.1 percent gain in January. Car prices also moderated, rising only 0.2 percent in February after an outsized 0.6 percent rise a month earlier. <<
What a joke. How many factories look at SUV costs when considering product pricing? All that time reworking the numbers and they still use these outdated methods?
>> Further back in the production pipeline, costs continued to march higher.
So-called intermediate goods prices rose 0.9 percent and prices at the crude goods level rose 2.5 percent.
<<
So crude goods level rose 2.5 percent or annualized at 30%!!!
Should be fun to see whether the market believes the PPI/CPI or the CRB over the next month.
They've gone too far with this report. Gov. credibility on these stats should be severly questioned. Seniors are getting screwed on the CPI cost of living increases due to these methods. It's going to be a HUGE scandal one day once the seniors decide to act.
$430+ Gold and $8+ Silver saying don't believe the bogus PPI numbers. This could get interesting.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$gold,uu[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&a....
Most of this run has transpired since the last PPI report. Day after Madrid attacks gold fell again. I think gold will soon be rallying in all currencies not just US Dollar.
Soon it'll be obvious even to the sheeple that the gov is lying about the stats and then we could see some real buying panic.
>> PPI .01%, core .01% consensus .04 <<
I'd love to see how this is calculated. Gov. manipulation of the stats doesn't get any more dishonest than this.
>> Gold miners are surely very high on the valuation scale <<
The sector is very diverse when it comes to value. I can still find some medium cap plays that are fairly cheap on many meassures.
NEM is priced for about $400 POG right now, but given where POG could be 1-2 years it may seem like a bargin yet.
BOJ/Dollar/Gold - If they merely reduce their rate of buying which seems the most plausible scenario the Dollar should hit new lows soon.
Gold is near term overbought, but most of the charts I follow of various juniors as well as NEM and HUI are showing clear breakouts. I expect this run to continue IT even if it takes the next 1-2 weeks to catch it's breath.
>> ANy substitute gold stocks for FCX. <<
NXG heavy copper and gold exposure. Results from new mine due out sometime in April should double reserves.
PPI release today?
Gold and PM stocks hanging in there today I guess in anticipation of the PPI tomorrow. Guessing we get a follow through on PMs tomorrow and at the very least a pullback in the broad market based upon this number. Close is anyone's guess. I can't believe we head straight up from here without more sideways or retest action of the recent lows.
>> China Sets Curbs on Credit Growth, <<
Too little, too late. They are already going to have problems. I can't see growth changing much from this meassure.
>> PD looking like a interesting short op <<
From an FA/TA or both perspective. From an FA perspective I think copper prices have more to run... potentially substantially more if you watch inventory numbers on the LME.
Seems rather risky to me until copper shows a sign of breaking. Trendlines still intact on that chart.
Long NXG, but no position in PD. FWIW.
>> $USD - Short term prediction <<
The bounce off the lows was totally artifical. The trade deficit numbers, had the market been allowed to act freely, should have sent the Dollar to new lows. Looks like the EU intervened. We've seen from Japan spending billions of Dollar that inventions merely slow the rate of decline down, not stop it. I suspect this Dollar move will be capped at 86 or 87 max and we'll see new lows soon.
Looks like JNPR should hit 22, 23 again if it closes the gap and we get Zeev's visit to 1900 or less. Probably lower than that, but not going to get greedy. Nice to wake up to pleasant surprise with JNPR grossly overpaying for another co - especially when short.
>> when I get some time I'll make a point of bringing up all your pumps w/r to Benguet. <<
People can be banned for profanity. I wonder if someone can get banned for pumping a pathetic pink-sheet stock repeatedly?
Far worse imho.
Bernard should be banned.
Added SCO at 2.01. (eom)
Is everyone so stupid that they thought the Fed would never raise rates in the future?
I'm pretty surprised this one statement caused this much reaction.
I know it's been posted before, but if you have it handy can you show me the Dow 32' to '38 again?
FWIW, I think from an FA standpoint the economy is flying into more than one headwind:
1) Trade deficit has only marginally improved in spite of massive US Dollar fall and global growth. (41 bil per month down to 38 bil last month)
2) Jobs still being created largely outside US
3) Fiscal decifit looks terrible. Not much on the horizon to improve it. Stock market gains more taxes? So many have loss carry forwards. We'll see.
4) Doesn't look like we're going to pull out of Iraq anytime soon.
5) Most of the gov stimulus was 1-time in nature. This coming April (refund checks) will be the last of it.
6) Consumer hasn't repaired balance sheet.
7) Tech is coming back, but will it have pricing power? Too much capacity still imho and barriers to entry from China and Asia continue to fall.
8) Valuations
9) PPI inflation, but CPI and wage disinflation.
10) Housing market, bond market, china? More bubbles anyone?
Other than the "virtuous" cycle of economic prosperity feeding on itself I can't come up with too many bull side catalyst to carry this market much higher. Maybe that'll be enough along with rampant speculation which Greenspan is again encouraging. But I think this ends very badly... eventually.
AJTJ, I follow you, but maybe not as much as I should. Based upon your S&P targets I'm assuming that you think we've started a new bull market? If so is it mostly a technical call?
I still think we're in a nasty bear market that'll reassert itself by mid 2005 at the latest (probably 6-9 months earlier). However, I think I agree that we're likely to grind higher over the next 3 months maybe as long as 6.
Thanks for clarifying. I'm currently short via RYVNX as of last friday at the close. Breakeven right now. I'm about 1/2 short where I'd like to be ultimately so saving a bit of firepower for higher levels.
If it's such a gamble...why risk it? Why not wait and see if that mark is hit. If so it's an even better short than these levels.
FWIW. More of a swing trader than day trader myself.
>> that includes 6% in golds <<
If the markets get hit like we both expect then I don't think golds will be a safe haven in the short term. I expect everything to get hit together. JMHO.
I doubled my short position today in RYVNX.
Agree on NXG. Also own a nice size position. Currently it's my only miner as I expect this near term correction to continue possibly hitting HUI 200 or lower.
Do you have an opinion on CBJ?
Thanks for the reply. What's to say the mania hasn't already happened given it's appreciation from the lows?
Just playing devil's advocate. Have a position purely based upon TA, but looking for more reasons to increase it.
GERN - Aside from TA, what's the FA story on GERN that makes it so compelling here if you don't mind sharing. Why 30? Why not 15, 20 or 40?
TIA.
JDSU continuing to breakout. ADCT about to join the party.