QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[ItsAllCyclical]

>> With mkt indices at lows and semi's leading,
we are in for a big rally.
Oil scare has paralyzed the public and they will be left behind. <<

There certainly is that possibility. Most of the sell-off short term has been related to rate hikes which will likely be phased in over time and may be far more modest than most expect given the fragile nature of the economy.

However, indexes are at critical levels. I still think the next week will probably show more weakness, but if we get hit hard enough it could easily lead much bigger losses ('87 type imho). In terms of oil if you go back and chart it, if we break above $40 in a convincing manner we could run to $45-50 in an eyeblink. There are plenty of catalysts out there for such a scenario. If anything the public is still far too complacent. There are far more negative catalysts going forward than positive ones with regards to the general market/economy.

Do agree that the semis held up well. If this week has continued selling and the semis still hold their ground I'll likely throw some money that way.