is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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about the building for fabrication... it just seems that JBI, and mainly JB, seems to want to do everything himself. The engineering business is based on drawings. A construction package consists of drawings. The point is to be able to send the package to someone else to build it or construct it. He should be concerned with intellectual property, design, maybe procurementetc. There are tons of machine shops around that can fab things, there is no need to build your own facility for that.. when will this vertical integration stop?
seems like the wrong approach to me, but that is just my opinion based on about 8 years of being in construction/ engineering.
If you look at my posting history you will see that I once jokingly said that they will get a permit "when pigs fly|". It was just a joke. Every other time I have maintained that they would eventually get a permit. It has been, and continues to be, a distraction for investors. It is a detail of a much larger overal plan/ picture.
Yes I remember. Like I said, we disagree. Not to discredit the poster, but if we disagree we disagree. Here is the text of his post below:
"Did you find it odd that they were making machine parts and maintaining a machine shop?
No. I would find it off if they weren't. (he meant odd)
Were they making the attempt to find the items commercially before going to this expense?
Many of the parts are off the shelf type items. They built their own proprietary feed system and catalyst system.
Even if they needed custom parts, I would think that they would spec them and have them built externally
So they can educate others?
What are your impressions on their readiness to build more P2O units rapidly? Are they ready with a Construction Package and detailed design documentation? Or is this a one-off?
CRA is doing that work. Working with a large engineering firm like that makes building more machines easily. "
OK, now remember this we don't know who this is...
we disagree on the machine shop. It is a waste of money and not necessary. What they should have done is to prepare engineering drawings and have the stuff sent out for fabrication. It makes it documented and repeatable. Engineering firms do that. ditto for the feed and catalyst systems. Look at how much money they have spent, you would think that they would think long-term and make it a well-documented repeatable and constructable design, not one man's creation.
"So they can educate others" this is a stupid comment. If JBI were to hire an engineering firm to design a system, that firm would not share the information with others. It is proprietary information, and an engineering firm is best equipped to do it. Seems to me that this is JB's personality coming through and that he may be someone who has to do everything himself. bad for JBI.
Lastly, CRA does not do that kind of work. islechem seemed to be the most likely candidate for that.. look on CRAs web site for a description of what they do.
btw, what is this building they are building that has to do with commercialization? is it a building for fabrication or something? that makes no sense..
agreed, but he does not touch on the constructability aspect. anyway, i did disagree with him on some points. I donèt think that they need a machine shop at all. To me, having one means that the P2O machine is not rapidly deployable or highly constructable. They should have as many CFM and COTS materials as possible. meaning off-the-shelf stuff. If it is custom, that is just pointless and expensive.
if you look at it it has no packing around it, looks like it is coming from down the street...
anyway it would likely come in on rail.
actually we at work are getting some steel in from Spain. It is coming in by ship and rail. I saw pictures of the crane loading the shells onto the ship. They were publicized by our company internally.
something like that? Rail and ship, in a container. just this does not seem to have been professionally loaded into the container in the first place.
Just a question for everybody... what do you thinnk they intended to do once they got it off of the truck? Thiink about it.. it is balanced between two forklifts with nothing holding it in place. It is held by chains to the other forklift who is supposed to be pulling it. The chains can't be released quickly. What if it falls and starts rolling?
Just askin...
Pictures like this do not help the image of JBI, is all I am sayin'
what would really be cool is things like:
- a unit that is built with constructability in mind, like a reasonable footprint.
- reference to a set of IFC drawings.
- relationships with construction companies.
- procurement happening...
- something to do with construction packages.
all of this "tweaking" "modifying" "pre-melting" etc means that it will take a further 6 months to commercialize it. THe design should have been finished a year ago.
I am telling you that pictures like the one I originally posted on do not give JBI a professional image, and that is of concern to investors. We are talking about this:
First of all, how did that vessel ever get loaded that way? THe only explanation is that it is a container. If that is the case, the container should be offloaded first. TO unload the vessel from the end like that is way dangerous. I should be lifted out from the top after the container unloaded. The chains arouind the end of the vessel and the forklift in front would kill the operator of that forklift.
Normally when you crane somehting, you don't walk underneath. That way in the unlikely event of the load slipping, no one gets killed.
I offered to go see JB the other day...
Yes I observed that there was old furniture and an old barbecue on the veranda behind the buildings on the blending site property, which could not be seen in the glossy photos of the shiny buildings. It gave an impression of a site that was not in use, also of importance to investors.
JB can not want to become a union shop all he wants, he eventually won't have a choice.
As for the permit? I never said JBI would not get a permit.. never. I thouight they eventually would. It is just that permitting is such a detail in the ovreall scheme of things, that it should not be celebrated as some kind of vistory. It is not even an important milestone. It is relatively meaningless.
it happens.... i also worked on a job where the modules were non-union.. and the union guys refused to work on them because of that.
what I amn saying is that JBI has to have professional safe methods, non-union or not. Also, they have no notion of constructability that i have seen no preparation for commercialization.
That picture does make JBI look good, union or not.
JBI may not have a choice. That is the way Unions work... if RKT is a Union shop they will not allow non-union workers on that site.
I am sure that RKT would be a union shop and I don't think JBI has even thought about Constructability, packaging, Procurement, etc...
This is a discussion board and I am just giving an opinion. That picture gives an impression of JBI doing things in an unsafe hasty manner. It would be cheaper than doing it properly and safely. I would say the costs would double. I can't provide a link, I am sure there is forklift safety stuff around.,
then the operator would get charged with manslaughter like the captain of that cruise ship did. Everything else you said was true.
People don't drink on construction sites. Union people may have set ways of doing things and they work at a set union-directed productivity rate, but they are skilled professionals.
If they were caught intoxicated on the job, they would be fired. Immediately. And would never come back.
people do all kinds of crazy things. I did not say it can't be done by a bunch of guys. I work on my car, and I bet I am not the first person that has jacked it up, then gone underneath without putting jackstands underneath. The point is, it is not safe. If you are going to be a serious construction entity you have to work safe.
I am sure you did that. It was not smart. I have done dumb things as well.
I would be willing to bet that RKT is a union shop, hence they will have to build with union labor. Their costs will at least double if they have been doing things like "a bunch of guys", on the weekend with a few beers.
what you are doing there is a fire hazard and potentially illegal. on a construction site or in any workplace that stuff has to be stored and labelled with MSDS labels.
what if there are buried tanks there??? thde property could have been worthless anyway, meaning that the old owners of the plant got a nice gift from JBI.
nah.. like maybe the fork lifts will tip over forwards or backwards and kill the operators. Those chains are ridiculous... LOLOL... take this to any construction foreman or crane operator, they will laugh their heads off.
just look up (Google) any rules on how to operate a forklift, they are all being broken. Forklifts have limited capacity and are only for moving small items around a warehouse, not for erecting a large vessel like that... rofl TOO FUNNY.
well I would not say I am drifting over, the fact is that the stock market is all a question of probabilities. Basically, it is risk management and Decision Trees. I will admit that JBI has a chance of success, but a small one. It is not a bet that I would place right now, although the level of unbelievability of JBIs claims has at least subsided somewhat.
There are limits as to how far I will argue any point, and ultimately up to each investor to make up their own mind.
I must comment on this, having come across it by accident, because it is hilarious. The picture of the vessel being unloaded by 3 of those forklifts would be put up on the wall of any construction site as being how "not" to perform this lift. This would be classified as a dangerous practise and it does not help JBI's cause one bit to let this kind of thing be public.
What they need here is a crane and a lift plan. That is, a qualified engineer or technican with specific knowledge of lifting techniques would prepare a plan as to how to put the vessle in place with at least a 50T crane, I would think.
The reason why is simple; safety. People get hurt on a construction site all the time, and every precaution is taken to make sure no one gets hurt.
This could not have been done in a union environment, for sure.
It is well known that any worker can refuse unsafe work.
The vessel is way overloading those forklifts.
So what happened here is a bunch of guys got together and just did it. Much like building the plant... they just did it. And their lives are at risk.
This is why any numbers that JBI provides must be taken into context. If they are going to do this then they are not working in the reality of a serious construction environment. Cranes, good technical people, and union labor cost money. That is a reality that JBII has to accept if they want to play with the big boys.
I don't want to go on about this, but your post does not make sense. If Somerset was desperate to buy feedstock, they would offer as much money as possible. They would highball, not lowball. I don't know how much refined fuel sells for from a refinery, but let's say they make $10/barrel. They do 5500 barrels/day. That is $55000/day. They had anywhere from 50-100 employees. 100 employees at $100/hour is $10000. Other costs may double that, leaving an operating margin of $30k/day.
Not bad. Realistic.
Now Marathon say can pick and choose their suppliers and demand a much lower price.
That is what I meant.
The price that JBI fetched, and I do believe from the P2O plant, is great. At this point I am not confident in their economics or if they can maintain steady production. But I agree it is a good price. It would have potential.
ohhhh... so investors were supposed to know that 2 years would go by before there would be any profits... 25 Milion later. Thaks for clearing that up z... ROFLLLL
no need to apoligize, actually I don't care if you respond to me or not!!!
I don't care abotu the reason why they talked abotu Somerset. What does it matter? What they said is misleading. I would love to see them sell to Marathon, who is in the same state. You are using the word "quote". I doubt they got a quote. That would have to be proven to me.
I don't doubt that the first fuel sales were not from the blending plant. So what? They were a small sale.
Then quite frankly, I lost you. The blending site is a different business. The two are independent of each other. That blending site was nicely refurbished at shareholder expense, for no good reason. Yes it was cheap, then again, was it worth anything?
SHareholders will never know how much of their precious P2O fuel is going through that place.
then why invest in them? how can you trust that their claims are true?
They should have told investors it was R&D work, which i agree with you it is. Investors were told:
- that while they were doing the R&D everything would be fine because that had this great tape business.
- and continual promises were made about production, commercial operations, etc...
there was even a rumor (I think it was in print) that the company was making .18/share.
What is so unbelievable.. that is true. ?? the whole job is over a Billion.
irock... I have years of recent experience on projects of this type. I can do a direct comparison with a project that I led in the Industrial gases business. It involved erecting a large tank, moving several large pieces of equipment, and piping, etc. Pretty much the same as what JBI is doing. It had a capital value of 12 Million. Took a year. I can pretty much say that given it's size and JBI's size (for 2 processors), that JBI should take 6 mo to one year. We did maybe 6 months of analysis beforehand as well.
Receiving the parts (procurement) is part of any project plan. It is important that all parts arrive at the construction site at exactly the right time. If that does not happen, there is something wrong. Lead time for Long Lead items can be 1 year. The processor from China would be an example.
THings go wrong yes. But the point is to perform meticulous plannign, which JBI did not. They flew into it and seem to be learning as they go. Bad for hapless investors. They should have been talking to DEC for a year before they spent adollar. Seems as if JB was simply in a mission to get investor money and then simply hoped it would all work out. Foolish. The fact that P2O is new is no excuse... JBI could have at least been straight up and billed it as a prototype. THey have made repeated promises about production which have not been forthcoming.
World-changing? I say not.
Investors can make the excuse that it has never been done before if they want. That is up to them. This has been nothing but an experiment.
There has been one consistent lure (carrot) the catalyst. If you believe in the Catalyst, you believe everything. One other thing comes to mind, the Tape Business. As of when I started posting 2 years ago, JBI should have been making money hand over fist from the tape business. They should never have been in this position.
If you want to invest in experiments, that is your business. I only know projects. Projects are designed and planned for success. Little things like permits are a detail that should never be screwed up.
On a real project, once you do all of the necessary planning, permitting, and analysis, you hit the GO button. There is usually some kind of cash flow at the end of it. Every day that slips by is lost revenue. Therefore, the planning is done meticulously, but once the decision is made to go, they go... go.. go
That is shy the guys on my project are erecting steel and pouring concrete at -20, -30.. can't wait for summer.. that is a real project.
btw, have you ever poured concrete at -30? Do you know how that is done? Did it ever occur to you that pouring concrete and erecting steel are the first steps in ANY construction project? No matter how complex? Like that Civil engineering has to be done first, Electrical last? Huh?
Not a PR about some permit as if that were success.
2 X the projected feed rate? You mean 2 times the current feedrate. Quite a difference. And hwat they are doing now ain't much. Again, the basic economics of this are flawed.
THe only information we have is what JBII would have us believe on cost and throughput. We have no idea of the true economics. Believe it if you wish...
funnily enough... no actually I know what you are thinking... I am not an investor.
why try to talk to someone like that? I would say that investors could have taken my advice 2 years ago.
maybe you should take my advice now...
did you know.. when a stock craters.. the more it goes down.. the more in percentage terms you lose? Averaging down only makes it worse....
once the decision to get out is made, it is a load off your mind. Something to think about.
A project like this (all 3 processors) should take 6 mo - 1 year and cost $2 Million. Result = full production. Maybe $5 Million with commissioning.
Not 2 years and counting, maybe 30-40% complete. $25 Million in the hole... and counting.
What a waste of money.
Where I am right now... it is anywhere from -15 to -40 Celcius. They are pouring concrete and erecting steel. End-date = middle of next year.... $830 Million. (The whole thing is 1.x BILLION).
JB needs to put some material where it will do the most good...
Listen... John (if I may call you that). What do you think if I were to pop by the plant next week and get some skinny, the low-down as it were, from JB himself? You seem to make these real knowledgeable posts. you seem to know alot.
I am interested in your opinion. Do you think John Bordynuik would like to meet me and clear the air?
He should remember, I am a planner in industry. Right now I am working on a job worth over $800 Million. (pinkie at corner of mouth). I accept nothing les than a really together believable plan. And I would publish the results...
what do you think he would say?
Objective would be an on-stream date for all 3 processors.
I agree, but do you think they have enough money and time? I say time because they still seem to have a regulatory problem. THis last stack test was to double their production... but what was it before? I don't think much... so what is double much? enough?
and from the wordin gof the PR the test was only for one processor... so they still need to permit the other two? a year?
Who says it doesn't or did not exist? From what I understand, Lubrizol was very much into catalysts. As for the rest, I can only chalk it up to ineptitude on JBIs part. Yes they spent 25 Million of investors dollars and they can't seem to get any serious production going, have not sold much, do not have a technology that is commercialized and ready to go into mass deployment.... the rest of it was not my material. It is someone elses material.
go figure...
As for the single line accounting error... 9.9 Million is alot of material. Everything affects everything else.
Just figurin'
how do we know that 3 machines is cash flow positive? I thought that with just one machine running they were cash flow positive according to JB.
The way I looked at it was with an ROI model. If the first 3 machines cost $2 Million (a reasonable number), they would have to make $800k from they for 2-3 years to get back 20%, a reasonable ROI.
Cash flow positive?? does it matter?
btw, they have spent $25 - $30 Million now... so $2 M seems like an oil drop in the barrel of JBI futility.
I wonder where their catalyst products went?? That is where Alan Barnett came from isn't it?
I am back in Toronto next week... maybe I will go and see him and see what I can find out.
Boy Zardiw, I hadn't thought of that!! Tomorrow I am buying.
JB needs to stop reminding and get to it. This "temporary" situation has lasted for 2 years. I started posting at the beginning of 2010, and what has really changed?? one thing that has changed is that the promise is alot dimmer. Most of the really outragious promises, like having 2500 processors in a year or two, "land rushes", P2O ships, etc... LOL have subsided.
What we have is... more permitting!!! I think investors have had enough of that.
They are 1-2 years away from having all 3 processors up and running. What ever they do takes capital, whether they build #2 or #3 or build on RKT property. Time is running out.
The last PR should be a big disappointment. It shows the lack of a plan for success.
Processors 1-3 should take about 6 months, maybe 1 year at most. The first one should have been built first and used as a test bed to ensure it is profitable. NOt perfect, but profitable. the lessons learned should then have been built into 2 and 3.
Permitting should have been investigated thoroughly first. Not only for the stack, but in the yard, load-out, etc... They should have been talking to the DEC for a year or two before they even started.
Just sayin'
I can only speak for myself. I find this discussion really interesting and this whole JBI saga fascinating. I happen to be in a position right now where I have a couple of hours every day to do exactly what you are saying. My work situation is a travelling one and I happen to be at loose ends for several hours a day, which allows me to post here without the usual domestic distractions. I had those until just recently, hence my absense.
Agenda? Can't imagine why anyone would want to post here for any other reason than pure FUN!!!!!!!!!!!