irock... I have years of recent experience on projects of this type. I can do a direct comparison with a project that I led in the Industrial gases business. It involved erecting a large tank, moving several large pieces of equipment, and piping, etc. Pretty much the same as what JBI is doing. It had a capital value of 12 Million. Took a year. I can pretty much say that given it's size and JBI's size (for 2 processors), that JBI should take 6 mo to one year. We did maybe 6 months of analysis beforehand as well.
Receiving the parts (procurement) is part of any project plan. It is important that all parts arrive at the construction site at exactly the right time. If that does not happen, there is something wrong. Lead time for Long Lead items can be 1 year. The processor from China would be an example.
THings go wrong yes. But the point is to perform meticulous plannign, which JBI did not. They flew into it and seem to be learning as they go. Bad for hapless investors. They should have been talking to DEC for a year before they spent adollar. Seems as if JB was simply in a mission to get investor money and then simply hoped it would all work out. Foolish. The fact that P2O is new is no excuse... JBI could have at least been straight up and billed it as a prototype. THey have made repeated promises about production which have not been forthcoming.
World-changing? I say not.
Investors can make the excuse that it has never been done before if they want. That is up to them. This has been nothing but an experiment.
There has been one consistent lure (carrot) the catalyst. If you believe in the Catalyst, you believe everything. One other thing comes to mind, the Tape Business. As of when I started posting 2 years ago, JBI should have been making money hand over fist from the tape business. They should never have been in this position.
If you want to invest in experiments, that is your business. I only know projects. Projects are designed and planned for success. Little things like permits are a detail that should never be screwed up.
On a real project, once you do all of the necessary planning, permitting, and analysis, you hit the GO button. There is usually some kind of cash flow at the end of it. Every day that slips by is lost revenue. Therefore, the planning is done meticulously, but once the decision is made to go, they go... go.. go
That is shy the guys on my project are erecting steel and pouring concrete at -20, -30.. can't wait for summer.. that is a real project.
btw, have you ever poured concrete at -30? Do you know how that is done? Did it ever occur to you that pouring concrete and erecting steel are the first steps in ANY construction project? No matter how complex? Like that Civil engineering has to be done first, Electrical last? Huh?
Not a PR about some permit as if that were success.
Management...
