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It did close on 43% buy it would be 67% buy if we would close above 97.60.
Options players may try to close it below 95 to get most out of calls.
So max pain could be at 98 from put preceptive. I am short 96 Puts and long 95 calls.
Disclaimer, will unwind on Friday morning. If unload 95 calls properly than will let go 96 to expiration. I may decide to short common against 95 calls. I will try to keep it simple.
I think they wanted to test new bears by going slightly up before filling 357 area. Signa wanted to turn around here for day or two.
Ford could Test $19 area in near future and 18.63 is not too far away for testing resolve of new buyers. Signal still long but it did break in the morning so be careful. It will be only 10% correction for near high.
Closing above 96.71 will generate initial buy signal, closing above 97.60 will be go long. Stops will be today's low. Confirmation of signal is 102.40 I will take some profit at the level and reenter with call spread to take maximum advantage. I think by December 105 106 area will be do able if we close above 97.60.
Do your own D/D as it is your money.
Good luck and happy trading.
Farooq
System is still on short. I was able to lighten my position yesterday near the 102 area, Since I do covered call writing so I am a bit long covered some short calls yesterday and probably will be net long today if we close above 98.91 area and tagging 99.78 will increase the chance of trend change. Today trend change confirmation point is far away @ 104.42, It could move to that level I am not saying but seems difficult today. In coming days it will become lower price point.
Good luck and happy trading.
I took biggest losses when I became stubborn that market will do this or should do this. Learn it hard way.
We as trader should not play God, we should be just follower. Your system is and mine is trend following system so I think we would be okay in all environments. Although hope is a terrible indicators but some time best.
Option gives better R/R when delta is around 50.
If one is correct in determining the direction and magnitude of move than shorter duration give best returns on the dollar, but most traders are not.
Stock market movement is also influence by options expiration and I think for day or two market could be manipulated and they do so, it is out of smaller investors hand so no need to focus on it.
That movement some times gives lotto options, usually in last week of monthly expiration week, just my observation.
It leaves us with for 4 to six week options. So I did improve my results when I took advantage of your one observation sell those between 70 to 80 % of spread (value) is reached as this still gives you some time premium back and it also saved me from last week fluctuations.
It is okay for learning to trade one or two options or if portfolio value is very small other wise not worth because of time required. Index option near monthly expiry are manipulated the most.
Four hour charts works better for option trading if one is trading for few weeks, 5 to 15 minutes are best for day traders.
These are my observation, option trading is still an art.
Always thankful for members of the forum for sharing there wisdom.
Farooq
Buy signal remain in effect. When break down will happen it will come to 357 area.
Here is one conflict daily and 30 minute say relief rally is coming tomorrow. Main system say do not go long blow 103.65 on 30 minutes closure. I have some long and 1/5 short going in tomorrow. Short 103 calls, long stock and 105 three times the short quantity.
They tried very hard but failed to close below. They might try again tomorrow.
No it is not see the chart dear.
I need to write a bit long answer so will do on weekend.
If you are doing in quantity than yes.
It also depend on size of portfolio.
If learning than perfectly correct to do it with minimal size.
Closing below 19.50 will cause some selling.till than it is going up.
Magic number for today is closing above 105.17 for direction change possibility.
It broke sell signal tomorrow is confirmation day.
Closing below 19.39 will bring some correction.
We did not close above 106.81, now the magic number become closing above 107.17 will make move upward more possible.
Grand daddy of TNA, main Russel 2000 index.
My thinking was that today it could break 103 area from where current move propelled.We could not make to that point.
Trying to negate sell signal. I am on the fence.
It did minor 7.5 % correction approximately but it remain on buy. Closing below 19.20 will flash sell signal.
Still closed on sell. A closed above 106.81 will generate buy signal. My gut feeling is tomorrow is important day for market and IWM.
Yes but mostly I sell short TNA.
It means after considering price movement and all technical indicators my conclusion is price will move to lower than that date price. Whereas buy signal means it will move higher.
Closed on sell November 8th, I was busy could not post but those who read Ibox should know.
Late post TNA went on sell from November 8th closing, remain on sell.
Yes it is on sell signal Since November 8th.
Is your reason is technical or valuation?
Could you post the price of, what is new average, If you are ready to share than do it properly. Thanks.
Thanks.
Signal still long, I will be tempted to take some profit and lighten up position with calls spread.
We are here to share ideas not to boost egos. My communication skills in English a bit weak. I always appreciate your honest views.
No Change in Signal,Closing below 100.29 will raise the flag. Too far away as of today. Take profit on recent high if uncomfortable and buy option spread to take advantage of up move.
I added LUV spread for Jan 2022 expiry 52.50/55.00 long/short.
You are correct it will be 10 to 14 % on equity invested in options.
Your are investing 1720 to 1800 not 2000, Not on 100K. This play 5% chance to lose, from 108 it is very rare it close below 99.50 but yes it could happen.
All plays are not for every trader, I agree.
I have noticed one unique opportunity in options.
Near the expiration like in TNA one could buy a 95/100 spread for 4.30 to 4.50 and let it exercise for 10% return to 14 % return on equity. Yes there is chance there it could come down under 100 but very little.
May banks and big houses do this.
TY.
Did you bought first call in cash account? If bought in cash account try to write in cash account. If it does not allow, you don't have level 3 approval or a spread approval writing. You have covered call writing approval against common shares.