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We could all suspend reality to pretend that NWBO’s market cap isn’t $650 million as of today or believe that somehow Big Pharma is involved in a giant conspiracy to undermine NWBO.
But if highly regarded posters on this very message board are suggesting the company is moving toward a licensing deal with BP, then it’s inevitable this will be a much smaller transaction in comparison to a typical partnership or buyout for a biotech at this late stage. Below is sample of what some of the largest license deals look like in terms of value.
For the record, I believe licensing may be just one element of the structure for a larger overall transaction. But if that’s not the case, this is a sample along the lines of what to expect in terms of valuation.
Midnight Writer Post — One More Silver Dollar
If anyone thinks that Linda Powers will be able to pull off a tissue-agnostic approval without the influence and alignment of BP players, then I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell them.
There is no doubt that NWBO will need to closely align with Merck and other BP players in order to quickly and efficiently advance DCVax. I severely question that a simple license agreement(s) will offer anywhere near the same strategic alignment and benefit that an actual equity partner(s) will bring to the table.
Just think of it this way. At least hypothetically, the same time NWBO has simple license agreement(s) with one or multiple BP to sell DCVax, they’re would also be pursuing a designation that will compete with the licensees’ other cancer treatments. That just looks like a recipe for trouble making at all levels.
I agree with BB that a syndication or JV makes the most sense under the circumstances. If licensing is the best option they can pursue, then that’s not by choice, regardless of what her posse is whipping up.
That’s a well constructed theory to explain the round shiny objects that have been thrown anround over the past couple of weeks. I’ll buy-in should this delay extend another few weeks without any news.
But my theory for now is the shiny objects are meant to soften the reaction to the announcement of a BP deal that will be for a value less than expected. We’ve heard speculation in connection with a license centered arrangement that includes a large multiple $ billion upfront payment.
If a license deal along with a listing brings the share price to let’s say $5 to $6, that would be a very nice bump from where everything stands right now at 60 cents — I’d be pretty excited for anything over $2 to $3 per share; so not looking a gift horse in the mouth. However, a valuation in the lower ranges is also well below expectation for a share price north of $10 to $15, which is where I thought we’d be late last year.
I tend to believe the communication strategy is to couple the license arrangement with Xmas ornaments to offset some of the possible disappointment, and to maintain shareholder interest to discourage profit taking. If you’re a company listing, then you don’t want shareholders selling at the same time; in effect, selling into a rally.
I do believe we’re getting close, just because they would otherwise have completed another round of financing by now. Doesn’t seem to make sense to wait and let the company’s cash balance run to nearly zero if the approval and/or BP deal is not planned until much later in 2023. But we’ll know shortly, one way or the other.
And just as a reminder — everyone is lying. And if everybody doesn’t believe me by now, they should.
Luca Brasi sleeps with the fishes.
Making this a billion-dollar company would be a nice start.
Maybe by the end of this year?
The true genius behind Advent is that it serves as an innovative business model for other CEOs at public company’s to follow and replicate. I’m sure this model will eventually be taught at all business schools.
Every CEO now has the full map for how to have their shareholders at Public Company A fund and subsidize the startup of another Private Company B owned by the same CEO and her investors. All without giving the shareholders of Company A any ownership or rights to the profits or capital gains at Company B, let alone any meaningful control over the contracts between the two companies.
Zoologists are also curios as to why when this business model is presented on a chalkboard, their trained seals begin to clap?
Apparently the Director of Investor Relations is fine with 30 cents a share when this drags into the Fall with no updates on the filing, while there’s continued cash burn and shareholder dilution.
This is like watching a dark comedy.
My guess is Les is doing an infomercial for the Men’s Hair Club.
I really don’t have any expectation for what he might share, one way or other. This is obviously not the type of vehicle that a company would typically use to communicate and discuss any kind of groundbreaking or material public news.
My theory is that steam is now shooting out of everyone’s ears, and Les will use the show to try to bring down the temperature below the shareholder boiling point. (And I’m sure he’ll also have an operator on standby for those that might want to take advantage of the limited time offer for a discounted membership in the Hair Club.)
Let’s be frank, management just sucks really badly. And everyone is lying, no doubt in my mind. Maybe even more so than usual.
I’ve got Rick James on the box right now singing it’s “just such a freaky scene.” He couldn’t be more right.
Their estate planning has been going on for years. Has nearly nothing to do with timing of milestones.
The clock is ticking. Where’s the cash coming from prior to the end of the tax year at midnight, December 31, 2023? Dilution remains a serious concern at 60 cents per share.
Maybe management wants to offer some meaningful guidance about what their plans might be at this stage, rather leaving everyone in the dark?
Let’s be honest, management just plain sucks. But let’s also hope they have enough wherewithal to get something closed “soon” for the benefit of both patients and shareholders.
Quick in the raw comment from the Park Bench.
Per a BP transaction, my original thinking was the company would enter into a partnership or buyout. That’s simply the convention at this stage for a biotech to realize value. A well-managed and successful biotech will typically have this in their back pocket. But obviously not likely given my own skepticism about management combined with Viking’s comments about a licensing agreement with an upfront payment as the likely outcome.
The problem with pure play licensing arrangements is it may provide value for other indications, but are typically of less value to the licensees (even with exclusivity) for approved treatments since the BP licensees don’t own the asset and have limited control and oversight of the company that owns the all the patents. However, this leaves open the question about the disposition for DCVax L as a standalone treatment: will DCVax L be licensed or will it be solely marketed and distributed by NWBO? In other words, NWBO retains ownership of L and just licenses out combo treatments?
Let’s be clear, the purpose of licensing makes sense for combo trials, and allows the licensee to fund their own trials and provides a source of upfront and potential future cash flow to the licensor. But a license for an existing and approved treatment makes little sense in terms of maximizing shareholder value, since the risk to the licensee, who will offer weaker terms, is loss of control and oversight, while the risk to NWBO are the typical legal challenges that could be raised if a Big Pharma decides they want to exit the deal and is looking for an excuse. Also, upfront payments will be less with license deals since much of the value will come from later royalty streams.
Licensing deals across the board — rather than just an element to a more comprehensive structure — would be a huge disappointment as it would represent the least attractive scenario in terms of valuation and outlook for investors. Licensing agreements are typically entered into by development stage biotechs, not biotechs that have completed a successful clinical trial after 20 years.
Lease arrangements hold less value and are higher risk due to the shorter terms and legal pitfalls, and certainly not preferred by those nearing RA approvals. Sure, we’d all be happy with some cash and the opportunity to finally up list this stock. But it’s definitely in the bridesmaid category. And although an achievement by the scientists, it could be viewed as a significant and unredeemable managerial failure and indication of significant reluctance by Big Pharma that NWBO management can’t be trusted with a more comprehensive arrangement.
A licensing deal could have been easily entered into earlier with milestone payments built into the structure to accommodate for RA approvals – this would have offset much of the dilution over the past year and provide a path to a quicker listing with a fully funded balance sheet – wouldn’t it be nice to be listed right now? Moreover, a few billion in upfront payments (equivalent to $2 or $3 per share) is far less than the $20 or $30 plus billion deal that was expected from the successful completion of the trial and subsequent approval. Hopefully, a listing would capture longer term value and raise the stock price accordingly.
One of the early theories is that a licensing arrangement could be an element of a partnership. A newco is formed to create a partnership for L that would own and license out L for combo trials. NWBO would also form a successor company that would license out indications for Direct. But that’s a horse of a different color, whereby a partnership for let’s say the distribution of L includes licensing agreements for combo trials for indications of Direct. As time drags on, I find it difficult to imagine that Linda and Les are capable of putting together this kind of transaction. Would be nice, and a home run with a couple of men on base, so I’ll keep this as my pipe dream.
Have to see what the actual terms and who’s involved. But just based on valuation, licensing is the least attractive. Having to wait much longer is adding salt to the wound.
The Revolution will not be televised — Gil Scott Heron.
The notion there’s some secret RA submission for DV Vax to be approved as an agnostic treatment is complete fantasy that only rivals the naked short conspiracy theory fantasies…That are STILL unproven, as conspiracy theories usually are not!!!
First things first — we don’t even know if the MAA to treat just GBM in the UK had been submitted? And they’re running on empty as in that Seinfeld episode. So there ain’t a lot more cannoli to snack with while keeping the SS Dilution afloat.
A tissue agnostic application would likely require some additional trials and statistical analysis. Although I believe the presentation at ASCO and MOA analysis was a deliberate opening of the door for that possibility; perhaps at the behest of Merck or other potential partners — but that’s in the future, not to be confused with the “It’s a Plane” Fantasy Island stuff; magic wand waived at a convention; flying monkeys in the Land of Oz.
(Note to self: Onco Doc is just kicking everyone’s behind. Making Linda’s Evil Georgetown Social Media Company look like paupers. The flying monkeys have nowhere to land.)
Back to earth on my park bench. There’s not enough cash on the balance sheet as of 1Q23 and Deputy Fife has not been heard from again (yet). To me that increases the likelihood of a listing and partnership in the near term,
I do recall from the Big Biz days that the company wants everything to be announced as close together as possible. That mindset is likely still in play. So possible this is further along than DI in his role of Thelma as Mayberry’s Call Center Operator is willing to share.
My wife is just kicking my behind when I repeat the agnostic tissue fantasies. So my happy park bench offers me some shelter from the rain.
And Remember — everyone is lying; even about The Revolution, which will not be televised.
Not a bad couple of days of trading. Stock price is up on higher than average volume, which is typically a very good sign. But an OTC stock is bound to be volatile, so end of day profit taking is to be expected. Has zero to do with manipulation — it’s just life in the little leagues. And the stock price still remains very low compared to even five or six months ago. So certainly signs of life, but still a ways to go.
Interesting there’s been no announcement of a capital raise. The gas gauge has to be nearing E. So the clock is ticking on a capital raise or BP transaction. Barney Fife at the gas pump? Then I’m calling Sheriff Andy Taylor and Gomer.
Picking daisies: MHRA loves me, MHRA loves me not. Not sure who’s calling it right in the absence of any real news from a Linda — all opinions and predictions are legit at this point. Has the MAA been secretly submitted and accepted? If not, that would mean Mr T calling for…PAIN!
Everyone is lying — so pick a daisy.
The After Midnight Special — Running on Empty
Running on (running on empty)
Running on (running blind)
Running on (running into the sun)
But I'm running behind
Not saying they don’t have the capacity to capitalize the balance sheet with new cash. But they are running on empty. And as Kramer clearly observes, the fuel gauge reads below E in the red zone. So besides stretching the trade for a couple of more weeks, where will the new cash come from?
Could be from a Fife Penny Stock hand-over-your-first-born financing package; cash could come from issuing additional Series C shares and warrants to angel investors; or funding could come in connection with BP transaction and listing on a major exchange. This will make all the difference for whether Das Booth surfaces from Sea of ASCO or remains deep under water.
But for now, let Jackson Browne be your guide.
Well, the company is running on empty with virtually no cash in the tank. Linda and Les are perfectly captured in this Seinfeld episode driving the business as far as possible on “E” before heading into a gas station, or breaking the needle off!!!
NWBO will need to fill the tank soon.
I suspect the company may be attempting to deceive shareholders and others about the timing of approvals. It might be wishful thinking that the MHRA approval could be announced sooner than 4Q23. But wouldn’t be surprised if that faux expectation is being disseminated just to lower expectations and to keep everyone off the sent as a product of their profound paranoia. The company did that with the JAMA article by attempting to divert attention away from the publisher by creating the expectation that the article would be published in NEJM.
But if there’s no approval until year end, and nothing occurs with a partnership or listing in the meantime, which seems all tied together as a package, then we’re in for a whole lot of hurt. Maybe to the point of losing some of the investor base that has at least kept the stock price afloat while the number of outstanding shares keep growing, thereby diluting the stock and the value of each share.
Crash has already suggested this is not the stock for weak hands or those that find this company difficult to understand, or lack patience. So I’m not sure where the replacement retail investors will come from if the longer term shareholders begin to unwind some or all of their investment in NWBO.
But I’m a dreamer, so maybe everything will unfold sooner than what’s been currently floated in the blogosphere.
Everyone is lying.
After Midnight Post - The Slow Hand Edition
As we’ve learned from yesterday’s symposium, there are weak hands and strong hands; but Linda is playing the slowest hand of them all.
I may be one of the few who had expressed their concerns over Linda’s performance and the information she offered at the ASM. And frankly, that performance was not a good harbinger. But apparently those in attendance who had just escaped from Sea World failed to recognize the warning signs that included a lack of clarity and direction w/ regard to the company’s progress and achieving its goals; layered with excuses about “flows” and “unscanned pages” and such things. Progress after 32 month since TLD is a remarkably slow hand by even Clapton standards.
So what has happened over the past five months since the ASM.
1) Missing in Action — SM was quickly discovered to be missing from the planet and no longer employed by NWBO. Gone prior to completing his contract, with no known explanation.
2) Lost in Paradise — Eden was not included in the license for Sawston. Someone seems to have eaten the forbidden lemon from the tree.
3) Mayberry R.F.D. — Fife provided another $10 million in penny stock financing at 30% total return to him (17% annualize interest). Much like the show, we may be stuck in perpetual reruns of dilutive financing.
4) Greta Garbo — I prefer to be left alone with another Series C Capital Raise. Additional funding via the sale of preferred to insiders and financial investors, thereby adding to dilution and the diminution (is this a real word?) of shareholder value.
5) The Jimmy Hendrix Experience (Not a slow hand) — The authorized share count Kissed the Sky at 1.7 billion, an increase of 500 million in authorized shares, while the outstanding share count has continued to rise like the Star Spangled Banner.
6) X-Files — The truth is out there. Unexplained delays with the MAA submission and acceptance. As if the MHRA and its regulators were abducted by aliens. Was SM abducted, too? Makes me want to take up chain smoking…
7) X-Files 2 — Shareholders are suffering from “missing time,” unable to remember anything that actually happened over the past year. Shareholders also report waking up in strange public spaces with their cloth on backwards and their brokerage account showing a share price of 60 cents.
8) Mummy’s the Word — No communication or guidance from the company since December. Dead ancient Egyptians have spoken more words than this mutant crew. It’s almost as if NWBO has been cursed!
9) Kissing Cousins — We find out that Oncovir and Advent are related through a common family member. More like sister and brother than cousins. And there’s talk of pulling a Jerry Lee Lewis. Oh my.
10) The Clapper -– The share price has fallen by 30% since year end…and it can’t get up!!! Maybe not by coincidence, the Clapper is also in high demand at the Bethesda Headquarters.
11) The Sharpie — Get ready to add your signature to another big capital raise.
12) King Tote — Ancient Egyptian Boy King found to be buried with a mysterious ASCO Tote Bag with writings etched in an ancient hieroglyphic language that resembles what (some believe) are trade marks.
And Remember — The truth is out there; but so are the lies.
Everyone is Lying.
PM
This is pretty bad, anyway you cut it.
To respond to a point that Mav referred to yesterday about delays and dilution, Shareholders are the proverbial frog being slowly boiled that never jumps out of the pot because it’s become normalized to the water temperature. In effect, the delays and incremental dilution have an accreted up over time, almost without notice, much like our frog; thereby severally eroding the value of each share of stock.
This erosion of shareholder value was less noticeable over the past couple of years as funding requirements were supported by the exercise of warrants that contributed approximately $32 million in cash. But even then pennystock debt financing was necessary— and much of that debt equal to $25 million was converted into shares at low conversion prices. This also had the effect of masking or at least making less apparent some of the dilution.
Well, the exercise of warrants and options is exhausted as a major source of cash. Now we’re back to large dilutive capital raises as the delays continue seem to pile up without end.
It’s not a pretty picture, to say the least!
(Crash: My wife desperately wants me to sell. But I’m a knucklehead who hates taking a loss. I can’t leave the table until I’m even.)
Well, as my wife noted after perusing the 10Q to check her math: when the company’s average cash burn is over $1 million per week, doesn’t that mean NWBO will have no cash in the bank by the end of this week? (Note: My wife no longer trusts me with the family finances, so I now have to answer a lot of questions, even if I want to order takeout.)
I said there’s at least a greater than 50% chance that she’s right. But they might be stretching the trade. So I estimate there’s a 75% likelihood the well runs dry within two weeks, and close to a 100% chance of total insolvency by the end of the month. There’s just so much stretching all these semi-retirees can do, and the Million Dollar CFO won’t want to continue to upset the CEO at Advent.
She asked what about revenue and cash flow from specials? And can’t the Million Dollar CFO do something to fix all of this!? I laughed, and then suggested it’s the fault of COVID. Plus I sleep well, if that means anything? And hey, there’s alway Project Orbis!
So the state of play is the company will need to raise additional capital. And if it’s the usual suspects, then shareholders can expect more highly expensive and highly dilutive penny stock financing — paging Mr. Fife, please come to the counter to pick up your hot mess sandwich.
When the Sea World clapping seals were enjoying themselves in December, I instead voiced my concerned about just this moment. That continued delays gaining approvals would force excessive dilution to fund non-productive purposes, and further waste everyone’s time and money. It’s literally the beginning of June 2023 next week, with still no RA approvals! For all the Kojaks, savour that tootsie pop for a few minutes.
It is what it is with these bottom feeders. But not having UK approval after nearly three years since DL is inexcusable. I hope that the suggestion of further delays is not true — I really do — but I suspect that it is.
Footnote: I asked my wife what CV7f means (inside MB joke), and neither of us have any clue.
The After Midnight Post — Beyond Thunderdome (Tina Turner In Memoriam Post )
Out of the ruins
Out from the wreckage
Can't make the same mistake this time
”We are the ones left behind.”
Given the latest news, one of two financial material events will occur within a couple of weeks in our effort to get us beyond Thunderdome. If we accept what Crash had posted earlier that MHRA approval will not occur until perhaps sometime in the 4th quarter of this year, then the only path forward is to endure for more expensive and highly dilutive funding from angel investors and penny stock financiers. Waiting until the fourth quarter for RA approval and partnership will mean another $30 plus million of expenses to fund.
A listing and partnership are linked to regulatory approval, so in the absence of those rising above the horizon, the continued depletion of cash reserves will result in greater dilution of shareholders value and a renewal of my Club Park Bench membership.
“Give it all or nothing”
Normally, a CFO for a pre-revenue biotech will manage the company’s balance sheet to retain sufficient cash reserves and access to committed liquidity for a year or more. That’s never been true for NWBO, which has always been happy to live a hand-to-mouth existence. But now liquidity is running perilously low to insolvency.
So what’s the deal?
“Livening under fear, ‘til nothing else remains.”
The company at the end of March reported $6.1 million in cash plus another $3 million from the mystery prepaid for a total of $9.1 million in cash runway. However, we know from over the past year that the NWBO’s cash burns is well over average more than $1 million per week. Since we’re effectively at the end of May, that would place the company at zero cash in the bank by perhaps Friday of this week.
”There’s gotta be something better out there.”
Now the CFO has the option to stretch the company’s payables and accruals, especially those due to Toucan. Deferring executive salaries is also an option, including the CFO’s $1 million annual salary. But that might at best offer a couple of more weeks of runway. Linda in her capacity as CFO has already stretched the trade by $1.8 million during the last quarter. So not sure how much more headroom under the Thunderdome is possible without creating issues with creditors?
“Looking for something, we can rely on. “
Maybe revenues from specials will contribute a little more cash flow. But continued buildout and hiring at Advent will likely result in sizable expenses that more than offset any cash from specials. Exercise of warrants is no longer bringing in much cash, which was otherwise the CFO’s lifeline over last year.
Legal financing of the claim with Citadel or a legal settlement of the case is also an option to raise some capital. But given the precariousness of an illiquid balance sheet, that’s now unlikely since Citadel or anyone willing to buy an assignment of the claim will wait to see if there’s any change to the company’s financial condition that might strengthen their negotiating position.
”We don’t need another hero.”
So given the circumstances with dwindling cash reserves to the point of zero, something has to break — and break soon — within the next couple of weeks. NWBO will need either another substantive capital raise and/or partnership that capitalizes the balance sheet.
It’s possible that a partnership could be structured prior to any RA approval by shifting upfront payments to milestones. But that’s not how this seems to be playing out, and perhaps it’s difficult to restructure at the last minute given that multiple parties are involved. In any event, these next couple of weeks will either be very good or very bad.
To quote the late great Tina Turner -
The most predicable behavior w/ regard to management is their abundance of excuses, which are just next level. They will find and use any excuse no matter how relevant and without shame.
You could fit these nouns into any number of NWBO excuse laden sentences: Shorts; Spoofers; Market Makers; Nasdaq: Ondra; Woodford; AF; SEC; FDA; Covid; Pages; Scanners; Politics; Stat; NVCR; OTC; Pre-revenue; Contractors, etc. Sure I’m missing a dozen or so other nouns used as excuses, but that’s a good sample. However, to the contrary, possessive pronouns are never used by management. Shareholders never hear management say it’s “our” responsibility, or it’s “our” error in judgement, or “we” own this and will fix the problem. The buck never stops at Linda’s desk, apparently?
Here’s a lesson about Covid and business. Yes, businesses were broadly impacted, and many are still recovering from at least some of the negative effects — mostly in certain countries in Asia, Central & South America, and Africa. But nevertheless, Covid lifted the curtain to reveal the weaknesses of the most poorly managed companies whereby the business impacts continue to remain the most noticeable.
Much like culling of the herd, it’s the weakest and sickest animals that are the slowest to recover and the most vulnerable to be taken down. That’s especially true in the US and EU, where better managed companies have regained their footing, while poorer performers are gone or severely lagging behind their competitors.
To still be using Covid as an excuse as the reason for being grossly behind schedule, especially in achieving critical milestones, is simply more evidence of fundamental problems and flaws underlying the management and governance of NWBO.
Covid has made one thing abundantly clear about management: the herd is not well, and a partner will likely insist on them being replaced. And maybe that’s why we haven’t seen any new hires at NWBO. Perhaps that will be up to the partners to decide.
Okay, the Moonshot Ceremony was a Big Milk Dud.
No mention of NWBO and LP did not attend — I’m an expert on Clairol Blond it Up Hair Color, and that wasn’t her. Even had she switched it up to Clairol Luminous Pearl Blonde it Up Crystal Glow Toner, I’m not easily fooled by such shenanigans, and that wasn’t her. Period.
And to make matters worse, the event wasn’t even held in the actual White House. It was held in the Old Executive Office Building. It was a non event, pure and simple. Basically, we came back from the Moon holding a bag of rocks like a bunch of Apollo astronauts back from a mission, rather than a sack of cash.
By the way, liquidity is running low and the weather has been dry with no showers in sight. Something has to happen “soon,” one way or the other…fingers crossed. Or we’ll be trying to squeeze water from those rocks.
There is a very good reason why Linda and Les would never ever be invited to the White House for a public ceremony that specifically mentions the company by name: NWBO’s optics in front of the press are awful.
A penny stock biotech with all kinds of bad publicity and history behind it would not play well as the poster child for the Moonshot program. We all know what those issues are without going into details. Privately they might have a different view, but the White House would not touch this company with a ten foot pole in a public forum.
I suspect that’s another reason to form a Newco and get past all the prior history and publicity attached to this company’s name.
And maybe why the NWBO website hasn’t been updated and redesigned — just as a sidebar.
After Midnight Post — We're gonna 'cause talk and suspicion. Give an exhibition. And Find out what it’s all about.
1. ASM Rewind — The real message from the ASM – if the audio is played in reverse — is the company can’t do any of this on their own. They severally need a partner with the expertise and resources to move this entire process forward. Likely deal will contain elements of a spin off and partnership, cash and exchange of shares in connection with a listing.
2. Oncovir Smocovir — Toucan already has an ownership interest. And of course they’ll want the public company to monetize their investment in the non public company.
3. Pencils Down — Possible reason for the prepaid is the company doesn’t have enough cash to pay legal expenses to complete all the necessary legal work for a partnership — an extensive amount of work given the complexity of this type of transaction. So perhaps a BP fronted $3 million in their own best interest to keep the lawyers from setting their pencils down?
4. Say What? — NWBO just increased it’s authorized share count by 500 million to 1.7 billion. Shares outstanding keep growing everyday, and the Series C has already been tapped since it became effective. Cash requirements will be approximately $35 million by year end, and that shortfall has to be funded from somehow.
5. Dog Chow — This has been a dog’s breakfast from the start. And there’s simply no way this management team can handle the on-going business needs, regulatory processes, reimbursements filings, marketing and distribution efforts; even back office is a challenge.
6. Upside Down World — This is the alternative world where managerial incompetence and lack of adherence to fiduciary responsibilities is the fault of investors. No conflict of interest is beyond the pale; no delay too long nor dilution too great. It’s always the fault of investors, because investors should be able to predict management behavior, and of course never hold them accountable.
7. Dirty Birds — No April or May showers and June begins the Summer dry season. There won’t even be enough drizzle to fill a birdbath at this rate.
8. Another Day; Another Dollar – Less cash every day. SG&A is maddening. Linda’s annual salary alone is over $1 million, so that is another $3,844.14 per day (based on # of workdays during the year). I’ve had good days driving my Uber, but never a single day as good as that. After dropping her off in Bethesda, another man might have been angry; but I stashed the bill in my shirt.
9. Uncle SAM, Deadbeat Borrower — This is the economic equivalent of Pandora’s Box. Everything is off the table should the US gov’t defaults on its debt.
10. Who Loves You, Baby --- Any type of liquidity crisis can and will be exploited by angel investors. Some of your beloved angels are serious business people devoted to their own families, who could care less about you and your “Likes.” In a liquidity crisis they’ll ask to take as much of NWBO’s equity as they can possibly extract. Sucking on a Tootsie Pop might be your only recourse.
11. A Million Miles from Nowhere --- Milestones don’t matter much to the stock price as an OTC traded stock. I’ve said that for years. Right, DL, TLD, JAMA, etc hasn’t been worth a hill of beans to the stock price. NWBO needs a new dance partner and a bigger floor than the OTC platform before there’s meaningful appreciation in the stock price when accretive events are PR’ed
12. Playboy Mansion — The company requires institutional investors as the primary source of capital. Family funds shouldn’t be promoted as a mainstay to capitalize a balance sheet. Family funds are too small relative to corporate funding needs; too unreliable, and frankly, way too quarky. “Trust” me, we’re all in trouble if that’s required to get us through the dry season.
13. Park Bench Vacancy – I’ve reserved some excess space for y’all. If some of this isn’t resolved soon, you may need a place to live after your spouse throws you out of the house.
14. Not Your Father’s Marshmallows — Stanford has distanced themselves from the One and Two Marshmellow Study as being too ridiculous. They rather devote their time to duplicating the Stanford Prison Experiment with NWBO common shareholders acting in the role of prisoners.
15. Message in a Bottle – Shareholders should send an SOS to the world for Linda to provide guidance and take a stab at satisfying her fiduciary responsibility to shareholders. Irresponsible to leave shareholders in the dark, especially given liquidity concerns and the uncertainty over the status of the regulatory filings. Hope that someone gets that message…
16. Shuckin’ and Jiving — That would refer to the company’s messaging. If the message is true that MHRA approval will not come until the end of 2023, that means the UK application is not accepted until Summer. If true, I predict PAIN, as in Mr. T level pain. (But Everyone’s Lying.)
17. In GRAT iTude —- Linda and Les have been moving assets around into trusts and financial vehicles for at least a year or more. Both signed letter agreements in 2021 that limited their level of disclosure for certain warrants— Linda extended her warrants (again), and was exempt from disclosing her name to the warrant extensions.
Moreover, contributing assets into a GRAT for the benefit of your children and grandchildren obviously doesn’t mean anything about the timing or terms of a buyout or partnership. No need to rush, this is for estate tax efficiencies and the trust babies (beneficiaries) typically won’t be eligible to receive distributions for their Summers in Amsterdam or Winters in Vail for at least a decade or two.
18. Danish Pastry — A very boring pastry. After just one bite, puts me right to sleep. Might I recommend a donut or chocolate croissant with your morning coffee.
The biggest human temptation is to settle for too little.
Thomas Merton
PM
This in fact is depressing. MHRA approval by 4Q23? OMG!!!
Those who are accused of bashing continue to be absolutely right about management’s inability to complete this process within a reasonable period of time.
The cash burn is well over $1 million per week. How much more dilution and high interest rate penny stock financing until approval? Having Linda and Les manage the capital raise efforts is a train wreck. Is this a sell recommendation in disguise???
I feel sorry for patients and their families more than investors. They really deserve better than this level of incompetence by management. Blaming contractors is just another excuse — the dog ate my homework assignment! Well get a new F***n dog!
What happened to Project Orbis? (Haha!) What happened to global approvals by year end?
But everyone associated with management is lying. I hope that’s the case this time. Can’t wait until my After Midnight Post, because I’m going to let it all hang out.
After Midnight Post — Gonna shake your tambourine
1) Mojave Dessert — Lots of sand with no liquidity to be found. If NWBO defers some Toucan payments, NWBO’s cash holdings might last until the end of June; unless of course, a BP deal or capital raise occurs first.
2) Barnum & Bailey — The debt ceiling is a three ring circus complete with clown cars. If not resolved in time, a gov’t default on its debt would likely lasts just a day or two. Can’t imagine Wall Street sitting idle while the market crashes. And wait until everyone wakes up to their retirement savings in free fall. This is playing with fire.
3) Radio Free NWBO — Bethesda still exists behind the Iron Curtain. No coincidence that the Metro stop for Bethesda is on the Red Line. Lots of static and distortion coming over the airwaves.
4) Dire Straits — Time to make money from nothing.
5) Betty Crocker— Empty contents of bag into bowl with 2 Eggs, Cup of Water, and Poly ICLC.
8) Lincoln Lawyer — Everybody needs to settle their case, make or pay some money and move on.
9) Full Pint & Bag o’ Crisps — Advent has payroll to meet. No more Newcastle Brown Ale from Cambridge to quench everyone’s thirst if the tab isn’t closed and paid.
10) Egg Foo Young — More like Egg Foo Old. Partnership in combination with Egg Roll and Wonton Soup.
11) George Forman Grille — Combo trial with helmet.
12) Hamsters in a Cage — Shares are trapped like caged pets, while shareholders remain spinning on a treadmill.
13) Cat’s Out of the Bag — Compelling that Merck’s in-house marketing and advertising team would now promote further awareness of combo treatments and ongoing trials.
14) Dog’s Breakfast — This entire post-datalock and regulatory process feels like it‘s been run from a dog kennel at meal time. Sloppy at best.
In short, to reconcile the existing circumstances with possible outcomes would include any of these four: approvals, partnerships, listing and a capital raise draw. I have to believe with no new hires or fresh capital, some form of business combination and listing will occur within the next 30 to 45 days.
And let the Monday games begin.
PM
Here’s the problem.
Nobody believes that Congress would allow the US to default on its debt, which would be devastating to the domestic and global economy, and American prestige would be irreparably damaged — Hello China!
But there are some that are crazy enough to let this happen. And it’s the “crazy” in the equation that makes this seem at least plausible.
From the perspective of NWBO, if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, it will be difficult for the company to raise capital and the stock price is bound to take a hit.
Depending on how Merck and other BP are impacted, they would at least defer entering into any significant M&A transactions. But NWBO’s own situation might become so precarious that they could be forced to sell or partner on the cheap.
Hard to guess how it would all play out. There are other scenarios I’ll avoid discussing for now. But beware of a large bird with a colorful beak.
I would normally say this is all a big bluff because of the potential consequences to Wall Street and Big Business. However, there’s just too much crazy now in DC to not take this seriously.
I can’t respond since this is my one post for today. But happy to respond in my After Midnight Post.
After Midnight Post — We're gonna 'cause talk and suspicion
1. Valuation – All Metrics are Forward Looking
2. Present Value — Notional Valuation for Partnership of $25 - $30 Billion
3. Future Value — Pick a Number, Approvals, Indications, and Trials
4. Competition — Blackberry (RIM) was highly valued (not too long ago)
5. NYSE — Realized value (sans full buyout)
6. CEO — Buh Bye, And thank you for flying Emirates
7. CFO — Buh Bye, Please watch your step before disembarking
8. IR Guy — Buh Bye, Terminal 5 for connecting flight to Kwazzie Land
9. Directors — Buh Bye, Waterboards and Packages Found at Carousel 5
10. Hall & Oats — New Mgmt & Governance for Partnership and Listing
11. No Vacancy — Bethesda Motel 6
12. Vacancy — Newco Ritz Carlton
13. Open & Shut — Wells Fargo case took 3 years
15. 67 or 78 to 84 — Ages of principals and directors (inspiration to the 70/80s rock band Chicago)
And always try to remember — Everybody Is Unequivocally Lying
After Midnight Post — We’re letting it all hang out
1) Urban philosopher Nelly — “Oh It’s gettin’ hot in herre (So hot)”
2) Stock price — Gaining Steam
3) NWBO and Toucan — Long in the tooth; Toucan Founder is 80
4) Big Pharma — Agreement
5) Intangible Assets — Great Divide
6) Partnership — Complex
7) Mystery Money — Nothing to do with litigation finance; too small and not sufficiently papered.
No such thing as a prepaid for third party litigation finance transactions; consideration is an assignment of claim, not purchase of shares.
8) Eight — Lucky Number
9) Insolvent — Balance Sheet
10) Whistleblower — None
Whistleblowers in a civil suit between private parties are not anonymous and have nothing to gain financially.
11) Naked Shorts — Imagined
12) HFT — Spoofing
13) Poly ICLC — Oncovir
14) Oncovir —Toucan Sidecar
15) Advent — Toucan Portfolio Company
16) Merck — NYSE
17) Duffy — Merck
18) Roche — Duffy
20) NYAS — Merck & Roche
21) Toucan — Website Down (See #3)
22) Marshmallows — Stale
23) Michal Jordan — Bulls
24) May — Sahara Desert
25) Everyone Is — ?
PM
The issue has always been that NWBO shareholders have funded the startup of Advent, not to mention the common control by Toucan that results in unreconcilable conflicts of interest. Advent’s business model is the same as for Cognate. So no surprise they’re signing contracts with other biotech's and third parties.
The argument is irrelevant about whether Toucan should or shouldn’t own a CDMO to support NWBO. That’s a separate issue. What’s relevant is NWBO has funded Advent and subsidizes the company by paying the lease on space for future expansion.
And for those reasons, NWBO and it’s shareholders should also hold an ownership interest in Advent as a subsidiary. Hey, wouldn’t we all like to have Mike Scott work for NWBO as an executive, and perhaps board member — maybe he could take over from Linda some day?
It’s amusing that the same arguments made by insiders for how worthwhile and beneficial it is for Toucan to own and control Advent, make every argument in the world as to why NWBO shareholder shouldn’t own any of it.
If you fund a startup, you should own the startup.
My Sunday Evening Post, Early Edition from the Park Bench.
I actually placed a “Liked” for your post, because I thought you were responding to someone else. The response couldn’t have been to me because I never said the company was going to file bankruptcy, nor ever used the word. Please do a word search, and let me know if the “bankruptcy” shows up?
But in case it wasn’t an accident, try reading my post again from the point of view that Linda wouldn’t bring the company this close to the brink of insolvency without being confident in a funding or exit plan in the near term. That’s pretty bullish, wouldn’t you say?
Having said that, Linda waiting this long to strike a deal or arrange other sources of funding is extremely risky. Anything can go wrong despite well laid plans. And the problem is they don’t possess any financial cushion should anything get delayed; but I’m certainly not suggesting that Linda is about to place the company into bankruptcy — albeit, I can imagine some interesting conspiracy theories involving Toucan…if I wanted to go in that direction.
Let’s make this abundantly clear, everyone here has experienced at least two rapidly moving macro economic shocks over the past 15 years: the ‘17 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. We’ve also seen rapidly moving business and government scandals, and bad decisions by regulators are common place. All appearing out of the blue with little warning, disrupting broadly across the economy, or just specific business sectors (and clouds are just now gathering for another banking crisis).
Unless Linda has a firm agreement in hand, NWBO does not have any capacity to absorb another financial shock or adverse event that could place everything on hold…even just for a few months. And their so called “friends“ are Cheshire Cats, more than happy to fund the company at heavily discounted shares plus warrants, and high interest rates. They’d be more than happy to take even YOUR one marshmallow. (As Mr. T so eloquently stated, “I pity the fool that takes my marshmallows using heavily discounted investment vehicles.”)
Toucan is willing to take this level of risk because they’re playing with house money. They’ve already made trash cans full of cash and an extensive return on there investment in a numbers of ways — so why not swing for the fences, it’s all upside to them. But retail investors are not playing with house money, they’re playing with their own personal finances.
So I hope your post with all those “Likes” was an accident in response to somebody else, because it wasn’t relevant to what I wrote.
Remember — at this turn in the road everyone is lying, especially those close in with the company.
Saturday Evening Post: The big picture from this week (keeping it real on the park bench edition).
1) NWBO is walking a financial tight rope, holy smokes!
2) The company is easily described as illiquid. There’s only $6 million in cash on hand at 1Q23, enough to cover total expenses for six weeks based on their burn rate of approximately $13 million per fiscal quarter. Lack of liquidity is further evidenced by a very weak quick ratio of less than 0.3 (I’m being generous w/ my calculation).
3) The balance sheet is a fully loaded bean burrito with a high level of payables & accrued liabilities. Woooo there!
4) With an increasing number of hungry mouths to feed at Advent in addition to the established bottom feeder sea life at Toucan, there’s not much runway left to fund the company. And make no mistake, the Brits demand their cheddar scones — they ain’t doing this for free.
5) Here’s the key. This situation is much like the dark period in 2018, prior to the sale of Sawston. Proceeds from that sale of the building recapitalized NWBO, avoiding having to set everyone’s shorts on fire with another highly dilutive capital raise.
6) What will they sell this time? They didn’t sell much of the Series C. Likely preserving the remaining allotment of preferred for a specific purpose. Listing, partnership…maybe?
7) If they’re not funding via selling the preferred, and they’re not assigning or settling the Citadel litigation, and the kielbasa isn’t done; so the only thing they have to sell is to sell themselves, either in whole or part. With the clock running, either a major listing and/or Big Pharma deal is the most logical outcome at this stage.
8) The company made a big PR campaign directed at the $3 million prepaid. But I would remain cautious as to who arranged the transaction, just because everyone is lying; especially those close in with the company.
9) Management is basically taking the company to the brink of insolvency in an attempt to maximize their negotiating position. Holy smoking naked shorts, Batman!
10) I expect a positive outcome, that’s the only thing that makes sense, all things considered. But everything sits at one minute past Midnight. Assuming there’s a buyer or partner waiting in the wings, we should consider ourselves more lucky than good.
11) Warren Buffet would never invest in this kind of thing. But what the hot sauce does that guy know?
Enjoy your weekend. And try not to add more than one Marshmellow to your coconut mocha macchiato.
Ciao.
PM
So DS, Zeppelin tickets for the ’77 tour at Madison Square Garden was the last time I placed a Good Faith Deposit (Sold out, six straight nights!) – Linda wouldn’t know anything about Zeppelin (nor the Stones for that matter); probably too busy hanging her Donny Osmond posters.
I believe the case being made is that a potential partner/buyer is paying earnest money. But the amount of the payment is way too small and a bit too amateurish to believe this was earnest money ahead of a corporate transaction. And share purchases and such are not how earnest money works, putting aside the lack of an executed share purchase agreement.
The $3 million share purchase is most likely an insider, probably from the aforementioned Donny Osmond fan. Since having effective control over the Conflicts Committee, I’m sure she’s fairly confident — assuming it’s her — that whatever the agreed final terms, those will sail through committee.
The disclosure on the 10Q as a subsequent event seems like the lawyers and accountants are threading a needle to provide some disclosure while limiting both the name of party (if related) or providing actual terms, since those are not final. Again, sort of an odd transaction with an oddly abbreviated disclosure and odd timing.
This also reminds me of just prior to the sale of Sawston to the Chinese in 2018, Linda had entered into a number of loan agreements in similar amounts of a few million $ or so. Most of those loans were subsequently extended, converted to shares with warrants attached. All after the fact.
This is my Alpha and Omega post for today.
Remember, Sweet Child O’ Mine – Everyone is lying.
I don’t know, Mav. The financials just show a cash strapped company that quickly needed $3 million in hard currency (American) and couldn’t wait to complete a proper share purchase agreement. This occurred just on Monday, Good Lord.
The share purchase is with either an insider or one of their angle investors that trust them enough to disburse cash without a final signed and effective agreement in place. Again, one of these really odd transactions they often enter into. And there’s certainly plenty of room for monkey business in these situations. (Sidebar: One category that remains mysterious is the continuing high level of general & administrative expense for such a small company?)
The 10Q reminds me of a damp dish towel that’s being wrung dry of all of its remaining moisture. If management doesn’t enter into a BP deal very soon, this will get increasingly bad for investors. Being so short on liquidity is a terrible negotiating position to be in, so my hope is there’s an agreement already in place.
That is the hope, anyway,
Pray for rain.
Not another expensive penny stock Fife financing. Good Lord!
I feel badly for anyone that places their trust in the things shared to them by management. I’m sure the MAA has or will be submitted and approved. But it looks like Linda and Les have little to no control — nor grasp, nor understanding — of how long any of this will take.
The take away from reading some of the comments on timing and guidance is that management has left shareholders adrift at sea — and my fervent hope is that everyone knows how to swim.
Being poor and living in a park, and unable to afford formal swimming lessons, I can at best doggy paddle to shore. There are no PT 109 heroics coming from me. Each man and woman for themselves!
This is my Alpha and Omega post for today,
I have one post, so this is the Alpha and Omega for today in the form of a correction. Funny this post via AEK popped up again while standing in line at my favorite Georgetown food truck.
In my haste I must of misunderstood one of the posts from last Monday that someone had found on PACER via disclosure that Linda and Les sold a portion of the claim — apparently that’s not the case; some of those comments have been been quashed, so that makes me wonder?
That said, litigation financing would be a great idea to provide bridge funding going forward. And Linda and Les are well aware of this as an alternative to the lazy penny stock financiers approach, especially to meet payroll — lots of hungry mouths to feed, including the orphans at Advent. And the food truck isn’t big enough for us all!
General Description of Litigation Funding:
Here’s the beginning and the end (my only post for the day)
The Alpha and Omega, if you will.
1) There will not be meaningful improvement with the stock price until it’s listed, certainly nothing close to intrinsic value;
2) The longer the regulatory process drags on, the longer the stock price will languish within penny stock ranges;
3) The MAA acceptance may provide a brief uptick, but on its own it will not offer sustainable price appreciation;
4) Way too long since TLD — does not speak well of management; just no way around their accountability;
5) Something is going on at Toucan — get the vibe they want out too;
6) The messaging has been either buyout, partnership or licensing;
7) Likely combination of all three (good news on that front);
8) Management cares less about retail shareholders; but at least we’re 75% aligned — Toucan’s involvement (as always) creates the 25% misalignment with common shareholders;
9) It is what it is, but eternal vigilance by common shareholders is the name of the game;
10) The lawsuit is an asset — nothing more, nothing less. Since LP sold/assigned 10% of the lawsuit claim, obviously that’s partially consistent with my view that the company should leverage the lawsuit to offset further dilution and high-cost penny stock financing.
Actually good move by LP and Les. Wouldn’t be surprised if they continue to “sell” small percentages of the claim until there’s a BP deal in place that fully funds the Newco going forward;
11) Everyone is lying, especially now.
The End.
I think you got it right the first time — “Wired.”