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Snackman Niveus is considered the cadillac.
that was salient info. Have you ever considered deleting portions of a post that you consider 'offensive' while leaving the stuff that is 'inoffensive'?
deleting an entire post because of a word or two or one phrase is a bit nutty.....IMHO.
Again..IN MY HUMBLE OPINION.
p.s. geez, i wonder if the word 'nutty' is considered 'over the top'.
alienware is gaming.
not bad but a bit grainy. Niveus is a media ctr.
not the same thing.
CM oh no! not malagulu again.
hocus pocus to you too.
CM I think MSFT is using Niveus as a test vehicle
but Niveus (on its own) is a fantastic product. It has won so many awards it makes one's head spin.
No way Niveus would be preinstalling this tech unless it was far superior to anything out there.
Good stuff all around....
go-kite..Y'know "exposure" means ALOT when
you're talking about MSFT!
I mean.....Online Spotlight means we are on center stage with the other gorillas (Reuters MSN Kodak)
yada yada yada....
good stuff
Out of Lurk Mode. Guess the OnLine Connection......
means Gates thinks Wave Sys has the REAL Stuff.
hmmm...
I agree with CM entirely. Public Sector
opportunities are around the corner and significant revenues.
IMHO
Going back to LURK MODE. this malagulu stuff really irks me.
makes us look like a cult.
Bull....with all due respect
and I mean that SERIOUSLY.....i am unable to figure out why all the reticence.
The TPMs are rolling out the door like hotcakes, the public sector (defense establishment DOD etc etc etc) is enamored with Wave Sys technology and we got Dell on board now!!!!!!
so what is the basis for your reluctance?
it is just a forecast! It is just a guessin' game and no one is gonna hold you accountable!
what is the big deal?
sheesh....
OK...but care to give a reason why?
What is so difficult in explaining the reason(s)?
sheesh....
LD I ditto Amrp's forecast!!!!!
FWIW...you can put me in your table.
I like Amrp's numbers.
they look good.
There ya go, Snackman!
your turn now.
Snackman ever since LD started his table.....
you have been very quiet in terms of your 2005/2006 growth outlook.
Frankly, I think you ought to be out there pounding the table because I think 2005/2006 is when Wave Systems turns the proverbial corner.
Honestly.....I think you ought to be out there leading the charge...so to speak.
am I missing something here?
TIA...
Snackman I cannot reply privately to you.
But IMHO.....that was useful information for investors who are placing capital in the digital security industry. It provided a flavor of what is going on in the public sector and how the marketplace reacts to these developments.
again.....this is IMHO
thank you
theguvna...well, let's just say that
economists 'forecast' all the time and their track record is pretty dismal.
Maybe that is why they call it the 'dismal science'.
Maybe no one equates a forecast as simply an "educated guess"....but that is really what it is regardless.
Frankly, it doesn't bother me at all to call a forecast as simply an 'educated guess'.
no big deal.
Snackman Here is a signal of why the govt.......
could play an important role in Wave System's future.
Just check out the news under ticker symbol INTZ.
it gives one an idea of the public sector potential for WAVX.
Mighty interesting stuff.
OT: did you see the INTZ news?
interesting stuff.
just illustrates the public sector potential for Wave Sys.
hmmm...
LD could you post Doma's details?
If it is allowed, then it might prove constructive.
Perhaps eamonnshute would benefit from the rationale behind Doma's projections.
thanks
oh eamonn..don't get so worked up.
Veteran bankers know that estimates are just 'guesstimates' even though no one couches it that way.
The bankers factor in a 'fudge factor' into these socalled estimates and then proceed from that point forward.
and so it goes.
eamon Ever hear of the term............
'guesstimate'?
and so it goes.
eamon...when you say 'fairly good estimates'
what you really mean is 'fairly good guesses'...IMHO
An 'estimate' is a fancy term that means an 'educated guess'.
A guess remains a guess no matter how one couches it.
Economists make estimates(or guesses) all the time. Most of the time they are wildly off the mark.
Stock (or company) analysts make estimates(guesses) too. And indeed, as we note in recent times, these analysts find themselves embarrassingly wrong as well. Oh yes, these socalled analysts have their 'channel checks' etc etc etc.....
but i find it amusing at how often their 'channels' veer in the wrong direction. Perhaps they need another analyst to check their channel checks....or whatever.
eamon...it is all guesswork.
Don't let the 'guesswork' bother you so much.
so it goes.
eamonshute So we agree that revenue growth
is a measure of progress. Well, at least that's something.
and yes, revenue projections are guesswork. This is nothing new. Projecting revenue is guesswork in all cases...even when concerning with a company like IBM. At least this is so for those outside of a company staff.
Your other comments (forecasts vs. actuals)are rather premature at this juncture. What specific 'actuals' are you referring to?
You sound like a professional stock analyst or someone who wants to be one.
oh well....
Armp...FWIW that was an excellent post!!!!
You are indeed a bright person.
thanks for your insight.
well done!
Armp...FWIW that was an excellent post!!!!
You are indeed a bright person.
thanks for your insight.
well done!
eamonshute Revenue growth is a measure of progress.
i hope you will agree to this theory.
now, the scope and pace of revenue growth (especially for a startup company) is a matter of conjecture.....or guesswork.
You and I will agree to this statement...i think.
Saying that a "guess" (revenue growth) is a relevant measure of progress is a fancy play on words....in this case.
Come on. Be fair.
You and I will agree that revenue projections are a 'guess' in this case. But it is not fair to ask, "How can a guess be a relevant measure of progress?" in this situation.
Pls be evenhanded and fair when discussing this subject matter. To digress into a dialectical mess is just not worth it...both of us know that.
thanks.
Snackman. No, it is not meaningless.
IMHO.
I think that it is a good exercise. It is a relevant measurement of progress.
Now...having said the above, I will agree that the specific numbers are a guess. Yes indeed!
But the exercise itself is not meaningless.
thank you.
LD yes indeed. Only time will tell.
For those of us who cross the finish line, we appreciate that investing (like Life Itself) is an exercise in hope and endurance and "love of life" itself.
we do our best and hope for the best.
Since we deem ourselves 'bright folks', we try to do our best to figure it out.......and hope that 60% of the time we are generally correct.
In the end, all that really matters is to feel good about oneself insofar as how one treats family and friends and the general neighborhood/country.
All of us would aim to rest in peace.
and so it goes.
eamonshute Pls reread my prior post.
I said the pace of revenue growth is a guess....at best. I think this is a given.
However, there is a trend emerging here....and the indicators point to a meaningful growth in revenue. The question becomes how quickly and in what manner.
For example, we know that the public sector is looking at Wave Sys technology in a serious way. The West Point initiative is a very good signal of this dynamic.
We know that Dell Computer is looking at Wave Sys technology in a serious way.
The same with Intel.
and on it goes..............................
Now, no one can say that these are not SERIOUSLY BIG players who could SINGLEHANDEDLY catapult Wave Sys into the big leagues.
How soon will it happen? In what manner? To what degree?
These are questions that none of us can answer.
BUT.....the indicators are pointing to very meaningful revenue growth potential.
In a sense, you are singing a tautology. Of course you are right. But your righteousness does not mean a great deal because it is something that most of us already know. Most of us fully realize that guessing at future rev. growth is a GUESS.......at best. But, it is an exercise based on what many posters here believe to be salient and bona fide factors. Perhaps these factors are not realistic to you......BUT to many here they are relevant and real variables in trying to project the future path of this company.
So.....place your bets. Many will be wrong and some will be right. There is a saying...."Many will play but few will win."
the question is, "Is Wave Sys. a player?".
and will it win?
and so it goes.............
LD The salient point is the RANGE!
I commend you for your efforts. I think the key point here is the range of projections. Even if one takes the more pessimistic projections by some of the most skeptical posters, then there is a case that Wave Sys is emerging out of its startup phase.
The pace of revenue growth is always a guess.....at best. However, I think that the growth slope will steepen sharply when we least expect it.
For a microcap company like Wave Sys, all it takes is a couple of public sector (govt) contracts (big bucks) to catapult the revenue story forward.
and so it goes.
LD i find ARMP's forecast intriguing.
me thinks he/she is on to something.
just a hunch.
LD Of course. 4Q probably will show some......
sequential improvement but I think you will see much improvement in 2005.
anyway, my thinking is that we ought to see some pretty significant public sector (govt) contracts within the next 6 months or so.
Depending on the type of contract, one must analyze the situation carefully. Alot of tech companies have had to restate #s because they did not take the most conservative accounting procedure. I think Wave Sys is probably going to take the MOST conservative approach to revenue recognition so as not to fall into the same situation.
and so it goes.
LD I think this is an interesting exercise.
I commend your efforts. Actually, the range of projections is rather interesting and supportive of the idea that Wave Sys is moving out of its startup phase.
If one considers $20+ million (2005) as the more optimistic and approx. $5 million as the more pessimistic, then one can surmise that the company is clearly moving out of its startup phase.
As such, one could forecast that 2006 could clearly be the big breakout time period.
and so it goes.
The Only Question(s) That Remains is..........
how fast (and the qualitative nature thereof)the revenue acceleration proceeds?
Congrats to all the info sleuths on this board. You have done your work well.
As always, now it is a function of execution (and Luck!) as to how quickly Wave Sys leaves its startup phase of its company lifecycle.
Remember that MSFT was blessed with a huge stroke of Luck back in the very early 1980s that catapulted into stardom. Gates is good but he got real lucky too.
and so it goes.
LD Hmmmm. if cpa is correct, then 2006 is the year...
of the MEGA BREAKOUT!!
sheesh....who knows?
Talk is cheap. Place your bets everybody.
Happy New Year Everyone! I think 2005 is........
pretty much the 'do or die' year for Wave Systems.
My thinking is that this WILL BE THE YEAR when the company breaks out of its startup phase.
So....place your bets. We have done the DD.
Talk is cheap.
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!
gotta luv it.
Snackman...great news! Tell Jesse that I hope...
he bought some bargains about 40 months ago when all the naysayers were sayin' that the world was imploding...yada yada yada
if ya know what i mean...
OT: frankly, I can't believe I was able to buy a TON of Lucent at less than a buck per share.
sheeesh....
unreal!!!
and so it goes.......
kant I guess we cannot Fast Forward it because
the gorillas are not ready yet. I think that alot of groundwork has to be put in place before it takes off the runway.
Acutally, this is a pretty good analogy. Sometimes the work required to get the aircraft off the ground is pretty extensive. One has to perfect the aircraft itself, train the personnel, train the ground crews, build the runway and then make sure that the aircraft can land without any hiccups.
Actually, an aircraft carrier analogy is probably real good. One has to build the carrier, train ALL the personnel, build the aircraft, service the aircraft etc etc etc etc.....
All of this has to be built, rehearsed and perfected before full fledged ops can take place.
Alot of work.....
hawkshaw maybe not different among those here
on this board. BUT, i think that 99% of the general investing public deposits more conservative money into their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). Maybe i am wrong, but retirement funds are usually more conservative.
Also, IRAs are tax deferred not tax free. Hence, for long term investors in WAVX one can make the case that investing in WAVX inside or outside of an IRA is not all that different.
For example, I have MSFT stock that I have not sold since the mid 1980s. I do not pay taxes until i sell....hence, it is sort of Tax Deferred just like an IRA.
so it goes.
kant I believe that Ebay will need Trusted Computing....
and thereby Wave Sys. technology.
btw, you asked about the ebay product which is paypal (essentially speaking) and the whole topic digressed from that point on.
paypal is not a secure system as it is 'software based' and thereby has many potential pitfalls.
IDENTITY THEFT, of course, is one of the reasons.....
why Wave Sys. will be a very successful company in the long run.
Identity Theft is perhaps the most devastating thing that can happen to someone outside of having (or someone in one's family etc etc etc)a catastrophic illness.
Identity Theft is a very very nasty thing. Wave Sys has an answer.
and so it goes.
LD for every story you have there are others....
that are not so R.O.S.Y.
remember, if someone steals your identity, then it can potentially take YEARS for you to get it back. Do you want to take that chance?
if you do, then go for it.
But something tells me that i don't think you want to take that chance.
jakes_dad...I understand but getting back to
the paypal thing. To say that paypal is the answer (as kantblevit inferred) is the HEIGHT of misinformation.
the epitome of disinformation....IMHO
when he says 'kantblevit' I take him at "his word".
sheesh.....
I CAN'T BELIEVE IT!!!!