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Nuke most BOs occur even before FDA approval as the potential of the drug is deemed to be great. Heck Amarin’s stock price was in the 20’s just before approval.
Since that time (a missed opportunity for a BO) Amarin has lost exclusivity for V in the US and showing the world how tough it is to sell the drug. Hence not much interest from BP.
So there will have to be some increase in sales OR convincing BP that in their hands there can be enough sales to return them some profit.
Hope you had a good time on your vacation. I can’t argue with the idea that if Amarin can’t show significant sales in the EU that they will not be able to find an interested buyer.
Mr. Main.
For #1, I have to think Yes if it does get sold it makes sense that it is not a whole bunch after that date as exclusivity erodes every day, and why would BP wait until there is no exclusivity.
#2, $7.50 a share.
#3 for Kiwi - 50% chance that no one is interested. For #1 I said by that date if there is to be a sale, but there is also a chance no one wants to take a flyer on Amarin (Vascepa).
Hopefully we ultimately get out of this with money rather than simply pride.
Thanks for posting Jasbg.
My bad, I did not read his post all the way through and thought at first that he was talking about sales in the USA. Of course the situation in the EU is the same as Canada - NO Generics.
No generics in Canada.
“.The results of this study(the Brave study) should be available this summer. “
Zip, the primary completion date is listed as Sept 29, 2023, so it is doubtful that we see results before the end of the year.
Duke, as an example, I thought this was another indication that the previous management group erred in their direction in the EU. Of course we are all familiar with KM’s mismanagement in Germany:
“Amarin (AMRN) plans to redesign its commercial infrastructure in Europe to better align with pricing and reimbursement status, and commercial potential. It will streamline certain cross-geographic functions. “
Thanks Capt. I guess that is better than getting stopped for poor results.
It looks like what you were demonstrating to us via your charts about how Amarin was hanging on to a stabilized market share came from a decreasing profit margin. When you consider some insurers actually dropped V from their formularies for Amarin to hold that 60% market share had to come from a large amount of discounting.
What did we actually get from the HealthNet settlement? Haven't seen any signs - at least not positive signs,.
How prescient. Wish I had paid more attention to the lyrics. In 1970 I was a freshman and had my stupid mind on only one thing.
Yep and a short while after that the stock price dipped into the 3's only to jump back up over the next 4 months to touch $9.
Somewhere between your 6.66 and that 9 is where it would be nice to get out. Not saying that I wouldn't be happy with something north of that, but getting 7-9 would close the cover for me on this long and ugly investment.
I believe Sleven’s answer is best. But one must not forget, there were cardiac events in the Vascepa arm of R-I.
Duke, I am not 100% sure what you are saying. But if you are saying that it is the Federal Employee Plan Administrators, I would beg to differ. As you probably know, BCBS is not the only insurer in the FEHB program. I just checked GEHA and Aetna, and both of those have Vascepa on their formularies.
So it can't be that the Administrators for the Federal Government have forced these insurers to drop V, because the two that I have checked both carry V. I will gladly check a number of others.
Now, if you mean those that administrate the BCBS Federal plan, then you would be correct. But I don't see evidence that there are some Federal Administrators dictating to these companies not to cover V because BCBS is the only one I see that dropped V from their formulary for 2023.
Duke, because these are independent they can individually do as they wish and I guess that is why we see the discrepancies between what drugs they cover.
To naive layman like myself though, it seems to me that those individual BCBS companies (i.e. Federal BCBS) that don’t cover brand V, offer a clear cut example of infringement. I don’t see anywhere where they say that they are only covering VHTG for their policyholders. Betcha some who are now being forced to get GV have never in their lifetimes ever had trigs over 500.
Wish we knew more about what the HealthNet settlement entailed.
Sleven, sorry my bad. Looking at Capt's monthly for 2023, although it is small V seems to be gaining ever so slightly against GV. At a very minimum we can say that V is holding its own. With some belt tightening they should show a small profit. Then we need the EU to come through.
Well, not sure I see it that way. On page 73 of that link, under "Drugs Not Covered for 2023;...." it shows Vascepa a little more than halfway down the page. To the right of that is a column entitled: "Covered Options". There it shows: "icosapent ethyl caps, omega-3 ethyl esters caps, Lovaza."
Yep, page 73. Icosapent ethyl caps.
https://www.caremark.com/portal/asset/z6500_drug_list.pdf
Plus the one you sent me, it does cover GV:
https://www.bluecrossma.org/medication/medication-detail-page/1155871?field_plan_tier=696
Maybe that is a good development. Unfortunately, my moron insurance company (how many f'n BCBS are there) removed V from their formulary for 2023. Ridiculous.
Mark, I must be missing something also. If every script my insurance company is covering is filled with GV, then obviously so much of that is infringing. But it seems no one gives a shit - or I am missing something.
Heck, they apparently don't even have to cover brand V in their formulary. At least that is the case with my federal BCBS for 2023.
I haven't really thought much about it, but if anything these last few years should clearly have demonstrated to the Generics that they should have waited. Not sure if it is too late for some type of agreement to lay off for a few years since there are so many Generics now, but I would definitely try to investigate the possibility.
Imagine having the U.S. market back -even if only for a few years - giving Amarin cash and time for the EU market to get going. We wouldn't be in the 1's anymore.
MrMain, would have loved to have been a fly on the wall to really know the truth of the matter. We heard stories that the Generics were very intransigent when it came to settling and then we saw an email purporting to show JT saying that certain investors did not want him to settle. Who the hell knows, but one thing for certain, you comment is absolutely correct that all the Generics had to do was wait a few years. It's not like this was their only product. They had other business to sustain them during the wait.
A rather sobering thought. So you are saying that the FDA believed that V would work in the Japanese but wanted proof it would work in Western populations? It wasn't because they were questioning the open label nature of Jelis?
Obviously the market did not believe R-I would be successful as the stock was under $3 before results and zoomed upwards after that. Heck Nissen and his gang still don't believe the R-I results, so not very obvious to that braintrust.
Invest, I think my sentiments coincide with your comments. Many of us have been watching - hoping - for the correct Teva-GSK developments, and it appears that those hoped for developments have occurred. But, that has not scared the Generics as they continue. People are saying that we would still need to take them to court. Hopefully they would be scared then, but I am not so sure. Our legal system is not very predictable.
Yep, but insurers are a big part of the problem. They are abusers, so no impetus or desire to correct it.
Sleven, especially since they are doing it in a way not to hurt reimbursement decisions in the EU. I am disappointed in some of those EU countries either not approving reimbursement (i.e. Germany) or taking so long, but am happy with the reimbursement amounts in those countries where reimbursement has already been granted. Now we just need to get scripts moving in those reimbursed countries.
I know there are many here that are tired of us beating the DuDisaster like a dead horse, but you are so right about script uptake before that decision. From Jan to Mar they were taking off and that was a seminal decision that changed the course of business for Amarin.
Saw an interesting question on ST yesterday:
JB2223
Yesterday 3:18 PM
$AMRN I wonder, if we let AI prescribe medication, how many patients would be on Vascepa at the moment?
Enjoying the discussion between you and Kiwi. At $1.15, as dismal as the situation looks, the risk/reward equation seems to favor hanging in there, as all the negatives seem to be in and potential positives hopefully soon to come to fruition.
There are two points that bother me when thinking about a potential BO. Someone here posted a year or two ago, how the vast majority of buyouts occur around (either before or after phase III results) but many times before drug approval and product rollout. In our case, that time is long past. I worry that we have demonstrated V's poor uptake. Of course in the U.S. that can be primarily blamed on Generics entering the fray (and the subsequent need for Amarin to shut down advertising to conserve cash and not feed the Generics). The other thing is time. Exclusivity is wasting away in the EU. So, I am still hopeful that some deal materializes, but for those reasons I mentioned I do have grandiose expectations of a high valuation. Now, unless we get some additional data, either related to CVD or possibly AD.
And, if tomorrow we break the 52 week high, that will bring more sets of eyes gazing our way.
But still a loss for Denner unless he averages down.
Zip, I wonder if something like that might force some insurers (like Federal BCBS) to put V back on their formulary. As of right now they cover GV but V not onbthe formulary
Yep, here some of us have been following the Teva GSK case thinking that it would solve our problem, but obviously jack has happened. So many, be they rich, well connected, whatever, justice turns very slowly, but try stealing a loaf of bread.
Looks like it. At 2:02 it looks like.
Yep, you make a great argument for JT not doing his fiduciary duty for shareholders.
And, more damage than what JT and those investors who told him not to settle thought also.
Thanks Capt. Great work.
Thanks Capt. I know you will let us know if you hear anything back.
Good question, but out of my league. Need one of our legal eagles to opine.
I had mentioned that sometimes when one company sues another that the other company retaliates with a suit of their own. I have a stock where something like that happened, and it appeared as it was basically something that each party would have when they finally settled. One would drop their case against the other and vice versa in return. Made it seem like it was a fair trade. Not sure if that is the reasoning here as the Generics may truly want to take all the V scripts, regardless of indication - entitled or not.