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I'm thinking about reducing further at 39, maybe lower since I just read your report.
Take a look at KDOK now !
Thanks SF,
I've been trading the techs mostly. Some longer term holds in the industrials sector have supplanted some of the REITS, regional banks and energy stocks.
I'm taking my time with this and not committing anywhere near the amounts of cash already committed to the slug stocks, ( to newer sector stocks- Industrials, techs etc ). At this point I'm at least 50% cash and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
What will really float all boats is a market turnaround ( sector rotation ) into the stocks I'm most heavily invested in. Till then I'll trade around the slugs and hold strictly to my buy and sell policies. As long as some dividend payments hold, the stocks will not be sold on stop losses.
My faux pas was not completely having stop losses on some of the stocks so in the days during the major meltdown they dropped like rocks in a pond. I saved many of them, like BX, NFBK, MA, and traded them as the markets recovered. Though still with a plus position in NFBK, it's a disappointment and I'm always considering selling and taking profit in the 1/2 position I still hold, and STWD as well isn't positive and is on the chopping block within my portfolio. I halved my positions and haven't added since, but may add to NFBK.
The damage done with stocks dropping past stops won't happen again. Additionally I have stops on profitable stocks as well. I also buy and sell the same stocks in various accounts. This helps as I trim and add to one account or another.
Another mistake made that won't happen again is looking long term. It's okay to do so if you're 30 years old and in a variety of mutual funds, but not if you're retired and in stocks. I had a previous goal I was merely thousands of dollars short of realizing when the market meltdown occurred, that goal was to seriously trim those portfolios and move them to cash because I felt that the markets were over extended before the meltdown. I was a patient ( but lazy ) investor, reinvesting and adding on dips. That simply won't work for me any more with my stock portfolio. It works with other holdings- Bonds, mutual funds, real estate ( though I believe that real estate will become increasingly risky and eventually fall to unparalleled lows ). Basically those days of reinvesting in some investments are behind me.
What I think I've learned from Nick is trim on up days, add on down days. Taking for example Facebook or Mastercard- if the stock goes up say $10 per share, I'll sell the commensurate equivalent in stock value gain that day. The next day, the stock goes down $5 per share, I'll add the commensurate amount of stock value lost that day. Some of these I don't report. It's not easy to discipline yourself to do this, but having some understanding of the individual stocks you're "working" sure helps. Being more proactive so to speak.
It's difficult to do this when there isn't the price action to do so with the slug stocks. Plus the liability of adding to an already untenable position in a lousy sector of the market is prohibitive.
Quite frankly I'm tempted every day to sell them all and reinvest, but a greater sense prevails.
REGARDING YOUR BOAT- A FRIEND OF MINE IN FLORIDA IS PART OF A CO-OP THAT HAS A VARIETY OF BOATS HE CAN TAKE OUT FOR THE DAY. HE DOESN'T HAVE TO DO MAINTENANCE AND PAYS A FLAT MONTHLY FEE. SOUNDS LIKE A DEAL TO ME. THEY'RE USUALLY SMALLER BOATS AND HE LOVES TO FISH SO HE AND HIS COHORT ARE OUT EVERY DAY ENJOYING THAT ASPECT.
...and once the virus has run its course and a vaccine is found, be ready to buy second hand boats- cheap.
Used RVs also.
That could very well be my plan.
I'd like to provide my take on this.
Since the market melt down, certain stocks which were heavily invested in the IRA dividend account have fallen dramatically. So taking tax losses and not continuing to collect dividends on this I'm simply not able to do. I take the dividends in cash and will not reinvest in these companies. Part of the problem was that those companies were being reinvested in to begin with and that cost averaging hurt me the most as the stocks plummeted and have not recovered.
Now, I was able to save much equity in quite a few stocks by cashing out but I couldn't save those that fell so precipitously. That said I've been slowly trimming from this account and will continue. The stocks I have been trimming are for all intents and purposes "hopeless'. That's to say I do not see an up side to them for years to come. So, I've given up on "breaking even", but I've charted a realistic negative return on each one of these and also put stop losses on them all. They go down past a point, they're out. Thery go up to a point and they're gone.
Primarily oil and REIT stocks have held the account down to the tune of 11% negative this year in spite of my best efforts to trade around the slugs. Last year, this same portfolio had a 5.5% dividend and interest return, and was equity positive all around. Today, due to dividend cuts alone, I won't see anywhere near that 5.5%.
In fact, I'm clearly going to sell some of these losers with the intention of reinvesting in higher returns. But, I must emphasize, I believe I do not have to do this. That eventually the majority of these stocks WILL turn around and that there's no guarantee that a substitute- replacement stock will do any better. Hence my Lone Ranger approach to investing- Go in have a goal to get 5- 10% and get out. Do this as many times as needed, couple with the dividend cash and buy more till I've attained my return goal. Then sell everything- whatever's left.
This my take from the movie "A Million Ways to Die in the West" If you see the movie, you'll note a snake oil salesman answering the question "why" the product is supposed to work- The answer- "Science!"
Looks like your concern for the Spanish Inquisition was unfounded with AEP Nick.
Science ! Nick.
Stopped out 1/2 position in PFE at 37.25 from 33.25.
My ability to not only call the bottom, but get that price is truly remarkable. Thing is though if I DIDN'T have that stop it wouldn't have kept going down. Since I had the stop in, it turned around and went back up. So there's that. Poor poor pitiful me.
And yes, I do take the market personally, just because I'm paranoid doesn't mean they're not out to get me.
Though looking at the 3 month chart on ABBV I can't get excited about it. Little potential upside, good solid dividend. So there's that... though I must claim that I've been wrong before. So wrong, so woefully wrong ...
Have a good weekend!
And as any good gambler, tripled my position in INTC at 50.50, okay not quite Nick cost but maybe close enough. Could be Rabbit, could be...
Yes SF and Nick I would add any day to T... at 26.
Seeing a lot of blood in the streets and my portfolio... Days like these I yearn for a place where the grass is green.
I'm proud to say that after receiving info from Ameritrade dating back to 1998, from Datek days when I opened my trading portfolio, I found that after I took out in cash double the amount I had invested I still have 4 1/2 times the amount in stock and cash that I started with in that account. Not too shabby.
The IRA, a portion of which I opened in Ameritrade in 2016 is down over 11%. Crap.
Oh SF I yearn for less than 92 on ABBV
… and of course FB is recovering nicely. Boy can I call a bottom !
Seems like Nick and I both caught a falling knife with INTC. I think we should know better. Will add to my INTC position for a swift exit at the earliest possible convenience. Just simply not interested in the long term.
Speaking of which, I think we're all familiar with the phrase "short squeeze". Well I think we've been experiencing a "long squeeze" tempting me if not many to sell prized positions.
On a stop out of FB which was opened 06/29/2020 07:59:32
Bought 5 FB @ 209.
Closed in the IRA account at 230 today.
Still maintaining my position in the trading account. Will add if lower.
COURT- The U.S. car manufacturers have rolled over and given up and love their diesel and gasoline powered buggies.
Leave it to everyone else for innovation and profit.
SF, it's always that the auto makers will be making electrics at some point in the near or distant future. Lets all wait...
Waymo ? Court ?
The Bezos strategy Court
Of course... This market is beginning to cost me some real money.... again.
Talking about lost opportunities. Eating breakfast, missed intcs move down and an important phone call. Batting 1000 this morning.
Thanks Nick. I think you'll have your opportunity and way with intel today.
Everyone's talking about tsm while months ago I spotted researched bought and profitably sold it. The sold it part I wish I hadn't done.
Not everything SF, I could easily mention at least 1/2 dozen. NEE WMT and TSM for a very good example.
Reopened TSLA at 1430.
Opened INTC in Ameritrade account at 54.18
Added to INTC at 54.19 in Fidelity account.
Now if only it would go back up. Standing sell orders in for 64. Hey, I can dream can't I ?
AMD sure didn't do poorly today though...As INTC still continues down.
Thanks SF, I always think "did I sell too soon?" Time will tell.
Mike Khouw Sees Unusual Options Activity In Intel
11:16 am ET July 23, 2020 (Benzinga) Print
On CNBC's "Options Action," Mike Khouw said he saw calls outpacing puts by about 2 to 1 in Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) on Wednesday. The volume was above average as the earnings results have attracted the attention of options traders.
The options market is implying a move of 5% in either direction by the end of the week and the stock usually moves 5.5% on average for the event.
Khouw saw the most opening activity in the July 24, $61 calls. Around 2,600 contracts were traded and traders paid around $1.5 for them. The trade breaks even at $62.50 or 2.38% higher from the closing price on Wednesday.
© 2020 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
What ! No Attaboys ? !
What? No atta boys ?
I too have a big swath of stock in EPD.
I had TWTR till today though:
Opened 7/ 9/ 20 @ $35.60
Closed today at $39.60.
Atta boys are appreciated.
Thanks SF
Stopped out of IBM at 128. Fifo cost basis 116. Cost average 119. Basically around 9.5%. Given my crappy math skills.
That recaps it nicely Court.
Talking about the unexpected, ( you know what's coming ) I'm just using a basic gauge. Now this is anecdotal, just like I used to use the BLS gauge years and years ago using Bell South as a gauge for which way the market was headed.- worked for a while anyhow.
My portfolios have been valued within a certain range since the meltdown. The "new" gauge is how high or low my portfolios value is. Considering that even though I trade around certain core positions my taste in stocks generally remains similar. Every time my accounts go up to a certain value they then go down again as the market goes down and takes my respective stocks down.
So, though Nobody does expect the Spanish Inquisition, my one trading portfolio is at its peak again. Does this bode poorly for the stock market ? Could be Rabbit... could be... On the other hand my Dividend Reinvesting account is still 5% below its post covid high. Now, the Dividend Reinvestment Portfolio has been less a dividend producing portfolio and more in keeping with the quick trading philosophy I've had to develop since all of this Bru Ha Ha.
So what do we gather from this? Not much. But just a bit of a warning. Using my simple analysis I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that the market is overbought and will retrace soon enough.
With these vagaries I could be a high paid analyst. Take that SF, with all of your cogent analysis of the financial sector.
Thank you Nick, no where near your performance...
And thanks for your insight regarding PFE.
I'm with you on PFE Nick. Where are your stops ? I'm in at 33.25 and would like to see something of a profit...
Sold 1/2 TSLA at 1570 from a cost of 1540.
Reduced IBM by 1/2. Cost basis sale from 118 cost to 126 sale. FIFO cost 122+116. Holding other 1/2 for a higher return and to maintain a lower cost basis.
You're speaking of PFE Nick ? You wouldn't trim at all ?
Regarding BP based on your and Elroys observations I'd say BP isn't on firm footing at all. Likely a candidate to trim or short perhaps.
I agree Nick, calling someone, whoever that was, an idiot was absolutely insulting to everyone.
Thanks Elroy the Petro Wiz. Looks like a potential short candidate to me.
Eldorado and Caesars merge. Looks like Caesars is doing Eldorado a favor.
What chance if you had to project do you think that BP will cut its dividend ?
Nick ? Elroy ?
Your picks are usually very good. BKR has been underwater for a long time before March though.
I might have agreed with you about Netflix' content but I've come around to enjoying many of the series and features they have. I'd buy it any day of the week between $260 and 360.
Nick do you have a target to trim PFE ???
Thank you Nick for getting rid of an inconsequential, crazed fly speck of a loud mouthed problem. It's much appreciated by many here. Whatever it's problem is we don't need to be accosted by it with name calling and weird, unwelcome political viewpoints. You were right to do what was done. This- for that fly speck is a investment forum, not a political forum. Be appropriate. You're not even living in the U.S.
The fly speck and I go back a long time, and it's been a pleasure not having it around. Stay in Nicaragua. The U.S. doesn't need you.
You're welcome, Nick. I think I speak for everyone here to say that I don't know what we'd do without you and without the insights provided here by all.