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Can someone remind me whether the January sales were subject to the profit-sharing or royalty part of the profit-sharing/royalty arrangement? We know that February and March sales produced royalty payments, but I thought that January would be profit-sharing due to the fiscal year of the deal. Anyone?
No real long term difference, but it surely will make a big diff for this quarter.
Malkiel on "efficient markets" on CNBC:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000083973&play=1
OT
After asking many times for script numbers for Dec, Jan, and now Feb, I was told that they will no longer be given out. I was told that the lastest numbers showed mLov at 74%, AG at 14%, and Lov at 11%, with aLov not meaningful. Hopefully, I can get at least that color going forward.
Interesting that AG is coming mostly out of mLov and that aLov is still not in the marketplace in any numbers. Could Watson not really be selling? Or is it selling only in hospital setting? Ideas?
Barron's Cover
Is Hope Near?
By the third quarter, scientists may have a better idea of whether two drugs can help any of the world's 26 million Alzheimer's victims.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703754104577237652227653404.html?mod=BOL_twm_ls#articleTabs_article%3D1
In part:
Abelson in Barrons' re PFE http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704444604577207103214499594.html?mod=BOL_hps_mag:
A SECTOR THAT WE'VE LONG liked but haven't featured with any frequency of late in this sacred space are the drug makers. It's no secret that many of the big pharma companies have had the sad experience of seeing their bestsellers come off patent and, in a flash, found themselves in a no-holds-barred price war with generic producers. Pfizer (ticker: PFE) and its lockbuster Lipitor leap to mind.
If not exactly a sleeping giant, Pfizer has induced its share of snores among analysts, where opinion is split between the yawners who suggest it be sold and the tepid enthusiasts who kind of like it. We're attracted to the company precisely because nobody seems to be pounding the table for the stock, which has been rather a listless performer.
As chance would have it, a favorable report on Pfizer from First Global crossed our desk last week. Kavita Thomas, who wrote the analysis, is to be commended for being upfront about the company's problems rather than simply rah-rah about its prospects. She's quick to point out that revenue fell in the fourth quarter, but it was better than she anticipated.
Kavita also reports the Pfizer's pipeline is stuffed with promise. Just by way of illustration, the key data on its Alzheimer's drug bapineuzamab (try saying that aloud while chewing on a pretzel) will be revealed this year, its pneumococcal vaccine is slated to be released next month, and its kidney-cancer pill won recent approval.
Sometime this year, too, the company will decide whether to sell or spin off its animal-health and nutrition businesses, both of which, she notes, enjoyed double-digit growth last year. Whatever their disposition, Pfizer is in line for a handsome return.
Her forecast is for earnings of $2.27 a share this year and $2.34 next. Last we looked the stock was 21, so it's selling at only nine times estimated 2013 earnings, the lowest P/E among the majors, boasts strong operating cash flow and its shares yield more than 4%. Best of all, as we indicated, it's pretty much unloved.
From the ishare site for the "growth" index for S&P 600:
From the ishare site for the S&P 600 index fund as to current holdings as of yesterday:
Corrected (I really was off):
Based on last sales, it looks like someone sold 2908 march 17 puts for $261,720 to help finance the purchase of 4572 march 23 calls for $182,880. So he/she is ahead $78,840, or about .17/sh. So he/she needs it to close above 22.83 in March to make money, and is willing to pay $4.9MM if it is below $17 to buy 290,800 shares.
The numbers are probably bigger since I am just dealing with the last sales (which were all done on the PCX exchange - other exchanges had other trades throughout the day on both sides), not the total sales for the day, but you get the idea.
Very bullish play, if I am right about the sales and purchases. Obviously, it could be something else like a sale of the calls and purshace of puts, or a sale of both or as purchase of both, but the prices would indicate that I am right.
Since the stock moved up later in the day, the trade is already positive by about $30K, even with the huge spreads.
Other thoughts?
Based on last sales, it looks like someone sold 4572 march 17 puts for $182,880 to help finance the purchase of 2908 march 23 calls for $261,720. So he/she is out of pocket $78,840, or about .27/sh. So he/she needs it to close above 23.27 in March to make money, and is willing to pay $7.7MM if it is below $17 to buy 457,200 shares.
The numbers are probably bigger since I am just dealing with the last sales, not the total sales for the day, but you get the idea.
Very bullish play, if I am right about the sales and purchases. Obviously, it could be something else like a sale of the calls and purshace of puts, or a sale of both or as purchase of both, but the prices would indicate that I am right.
Other thoughts?
There were two other firms that had signed confidentiality agreements on VRUS. In a couple weeks we will find out how many were bidding/interested here. With this kind of premium, I would imagine serious other interested party/ies.
One and the same.
Somewhat OT re bond yields:
Bond Vigilantes on Holiday
By BRADLEY DAVIS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
Nothing could dim the allure of U.S. debt in 2011, and next year may hold more of the same.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703805304577124632559511756.html?mod=BOL_hps_mag
In part:
"Treasury bonds returned 9.66% through Thursday, according to Barclays data, trouncing flat U.S. stocks. The bond market looked poised to post the biggest calendar-year return since the 13.7% notched in 2008 when the global financial crisis threatened an all-out depression.
The 30-year Treasury bond turned in the best performance, with a 35% return. The benchmark 10-year note has posted a return of 17% through Thursday.
Mom-and-pop investors and major money funds weren't the only ones turning to the U.S.'s full faith and credit: The International Monetary Fund said Friday that the dollar's share of global reserves in the third quarter of 2011 rose 7.5% from a year ago. The dollar accounts for 61.7% of allocated global central bank reserves, according to IMF data; central bankers ditched the euro, which accounts for only 25.7% of global reserves.
"Lurking on that horizon are potential ratings downgrades for European sovereigns that were notably put on watch in early December," RBS analysts write in a note to clients. "So once again, better [U.S.] housing and manufacturing data, higher-domestic equity markets, and a recovery in European bourses were written off by the Treasury market with a shrug.""
Buy-Write Is the Right Buy
By STEVEN M. SEARS | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR
The simple strategy known as the "buy-write" or "covered call" was proven in 2011 to make a silk purse from a sow's ear
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748703805304577124633341696956.html?mod=BOL_hps_dc
In part:
"ENDEAVOR IN 2012, AND ONWARD, to buy fear, and sell confidence. You don't have to be a trader to do that. When the market sinks, stay cool. Sell out-of-the-money puts against quality stocks you own, or would like to own. When the market surges higher, sell calls.
Michael Schwartz, Oppenheimer & Co.'s chief options strategist, says investors must learn to make a friend of volatility. If volatility isn't your friend, he says, volatility can be a fierce enemy.
He spent much of the year telling clients that "buy-write often beats buy-and-hold," and now he is telling them that "put-write often beats buy-and-hold."
The CBOE's Website includes many studies that provide multiyear proof of the salubrious effect of selling options against stocks. "Investors must learn to let volatility work for them, not against them," Schwartz says."