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GERN - Breakout on 30 min chart. Added more at 8.1. Hope it holds.
Didn't see the GTC cancel part. But again, I wouldn't think much of it anyway. GRZ 2 year looks like a nice inverse H&S that targets $10+ US if it can firm up from these levels. Still holding from the low 4's.
Have you ever thought that maybe 3.67 was an average price of a market order? I often post a price based upon a rough average. I'm not going to tell you that the MM broke my 5000 share block into 10 separate orders. Of all the people's credibility to question. I never understood people's obsessions w/other's performance.
GERN - That's a misprint. Check out the Yahoo 1-day chart. That's accurate.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GERN&t=1d
Still short GERN? Gonna be very painful if you keep your short. You had the same message on GERN and stem cells plays on the 5th of this month. Guess Barron's is running one piece a day flamming stem cell plays? You're killing what little credibility you have left.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5014456
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5052336
Novice basher tactic.
This one is especially hillarious considering how STEM has done since this message.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4948111
Down about 50% in a less than a week on a short? Good trade there pal. If you had some substance in your posts as to why GERN was going to fall maybe I'd respond to that, but oh well.
See you at 12, then 15+
More in-depth analysis.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4892583
Even bashers are more creative than that.
Figured that would probably be the case. Thanks.
Agree on perception, but they could sell off the rights or JV w/another company. Providing some cash flow to reduce future dilution would be huge. JMHO.
(edit) Ain't going to happen. Were you calling for 340 gold when gold was 450+ just recently? If so I'll take your prediction more seriously, if not you're a good sentiment indicator. 340 is certainly possible, but the probability here is very low imho. I think the most likely scenario is a retest of 400/405 with 380/390 being possible, but far less probable. I'm thinking the Dollar index craps out around 87-88 with at most 90.
We do have one thing in common. We're both short WFMI here.
Sometimes a picture says it best
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=GERN&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=&c=%5EIXIC
Accumulation going on still. This is the last level prior to 12. If you haven't bought yet do so while the risk/reward is still very favorable. At 12 it gets more speculative at least in the ST. I don't expect 12 to be too formidable.
GERN's pullback today is healthy considering yesterday's gains. Shorts don't have a clue w/respect to this one. How do you value a company that could cure cancer, spinal cord injuries, Parkinsons (even partially)? May not happen, but hey makes for a great story doesn't it? Still believe it's very undervalued here assuming just partial success of any one of their treatments.
Well, of course it's not certainty. If it were the stock would be substantially higher. Just wonder what the chances are of even some of it coming to fruition. I think the stock is fundamentally undervalued here given it's potential, but it's hard right now to determine at what price it's overvalued (at this point in the dev. cycle). Maybe 1 bil? Maybe 2 bil. I don't have a good sense on what their patents alone are worth yet. Of course it can stay overvalued for a long time especially if the story is good (as it is in this case). We'll see. I suspect we'll at least 15 in 2005, but I suspect we'll see 25+.
Appreciate the response and look forward to hearing from you. The more I read and learn the more I want to hold at least some for the very LT.
Very long both in ST and LT accounts. In between 6.7 and 8.2 with the ave probably around 7.5
I've heard, but didn't know if GERN was slated to get any revenue from it. Does seem like it would put a floor under the stock.
GERN - You've been following this company longer I believe. Do you have an opinion on this post? Is it pretty accurate?
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076859&tid=gern&sid=707...
This section in particular.
This is what's keeping me long from here on out. What assures me and gives me hope that the trip will be like climbing a mountainside with very few landslides along the way, - and what I don't think many realize, is the monstrous revenues, possibly starting within a couple months from licensing animal cloning technology which will, within two years time, create an industry out of cloning pets, at the very least. This revenue stream alone will justify a stock price manyfold it's current price - and that's just the fluff side of the business.
I figured that was the case. My time frame is much longer than most that post here so that type of confusion is often the case.
I also believe it's being shorted above 8, but don't believe that's the primary reason for it lagging. I believe there are a number of sellers just trying to get out "even" from the last time it was above $8. Once cleared I think it'll fly.
Unlike STEM is players want they go w/options on GERN so maybe it's a case that the option writers are trying to contain the price. If STEM continues higher though some of that money will flow into GERN as the smarter traders diversify and rotate into laggards.
GERN/Stem cell plays. >> its really do or die time for GERN here... <<
I don't understand that comment at all.
Downside is maybe $5-6 again worst case and upside of 15-25+ once it clears 10 again? Good risk/reward ratio by my book. Pull up a 2 year chart of GERN and you can see that it's just recently broke a major downtrend channel. As of today you now have the 50/200 dma crossing. In the past the sector has moved pretty much as a group. Any PR will be good for all the stem cell plays. I don't mind STEM moving higher as I think as people do more research they'll find their way back into GERN. They have plenty of cash and there are numerous potential catalysts that could take it higher during the course of the year. Given how it's traded in the past you need to estabish a position ahead of these moves because it can move real fast. STEM up almost 50% in one day yesterday is a perfect example.
8.5 is a key point. Once we close above that area I suspect we'll get more momentum players moving in sending it much higher. I would have expected it to behave better given it's peers, but there are a few potential reasons for that 1) Name recognition, 2) Ability to short or buy options more readily on GERN 3) GERN tends to be played by those who focus more on FA vs it's peers seem to be played more by the ST crowd. I think GERN is still being accumulated prior to the next move up.
We'll see.
Disclosure, very long GERN.
FWIW, I tend to agree with you although I'm much heavier weighted in the golds overall. GERN is one of my bigger individual positions. Will stay overload till at least 15-25 which I think will come pretty easily once 9-10 area is taken. At that point I may reduce to a core position and hold LT, but depends on TA and news.
Largest gold positions are NG, GRZ and GRS in that order, although GRS is more silver.
>> Instead of whining against the "cabal" try to find their weak spot. <<
Well said.
(edit) >> Have you no concerns about the lack of 'fine print' restrictions that would prevent the ETF from "leasing" out (on a short term basis) a sufficient amount of bullion to pressure the cash market into driving the entire PM complex lower whenever the banksters/COMEX commerials had their short positions in order? <<
Concerned? Yes, but what can I really do? As I said I do not think it'll change the LT picture. We keep running a supply decifit w/respect to gold every year that is only met by CB selling. Same w/silver. If they want to manipulate gold to the point where it's no longer appreciating then they'll simply make this an even longer gold bull, albiet one that'll be slower to appreciate. There are still many gold investments that'll do well with a new trading range on gold of $375 to $450.
The problem w/the conspiracy buffs is once you subscribe to that train of thought, then every time you're wrong ST about gold it must be the "CABAL" knocking down gold prices. If those who buy gold simply buy the physical vs playing in the BS world of COMEX much would be solved.
Suppose the PPT does short GLD into the Abyss. How does that change the FA picture w/respect to the Dollar? Once imbalances become too great you'd see long buying combined w/some short covering. Again, I think if you step back and look at the LT picture w/respect to gold and silver it's exactly what you'd expect after a 20-year bear market. Now granted I think both should be higher by now and that may be the PPT influence, but all they are doing is controlling the overall rate of increase/decrease - not the final direction. Same with the Naz and Nikkie bubbles of which I think both gov's play a part in managing the decline.
Just my swag. This is not my forte. If you manage to get enough people together to influence the SEC I'll happily join your protest.
If the PPT wants to knock gold back to $400 again let them. I'll happily accept that gift as it would represent a great risk/reward ratio again. On average I'm about 30% exposed here to PMs.
I think yesterday's smackdown was $5-7 influenced the PPT or shorts and the rest was weak specs getting overextended and overconfident again.
At this point China and Japan know they "trapped" w/respect to the Dollar. I'm sure they would love to have less exposure. Knock gold down far enough again and they'll be buyers. Of course we won't really hear about any official buying until years from now after they've dug themselves out of this currency/trading problem.
Thanks for posting. One paragraph in particular really spells out GATA's case w/regards to the ETF:
>> My understanding is that the GLD fund lost 15 tons of gold yesterday. It is looking more and more like GLD was created to further help in the management of the gold price. If the fund lost 15 tons of gold yesterday, it means that the stock was trading at a discount to the NAV of the fund. The fund was then forced to buyback the stock and sell the same amount of gold at the market. What we have here is an instrument that owns gold that can be forced to sell gold at the market anytime somebody (the powers that be) shorts or sells enough paper certificates to drive the stock price below the value of the gold in the fund. If the SEC is allowing naked shorting in this security, it makes it even easier to drive the value of the stock down to force the sale of the physical gold anytime they want. What a wonderful world. Jeff <<
I think LT this will be a non-issue. When you examine all of the factors driving gold LT and the implications of higher cost imports LT, it makes it very likely even if all of the issues regarding the ETF are true, it'll be nothing more than a ST timing vehicle for the Commercials/PPT.
For some reason having problems getting into the CC. Can you give a few quick soundbites as to why it sucks? Thanks.
*** Gold related post (Gold ETF) ***
The Dollar started falling again far sooner than all this news about the ETF finally coming public (after how many "false starts"). I personally think far too much is being made of both it's positive AND negative effects by both gold bulls and bears alike. I would think this ETF would try to own the bullion like CEF in Canada? If not, I agree I'm not crazy about owning an ETF that owns the futures vs the bullion. With respect to shorting the ETF, the other gold markets are so much larger that I would think that arbs would step up and close any disparities that get too great. Just my swag.
>> I think we're already seeing a loss of interest with the goldshares, many of which are still dramatically below their 52 week highs while the Pog has been setting new 16 year highs.
almost daily for the past week or so. <<
There are some that are at 52 weeks highs. Keep in mind we're still in the middle of tax loss selling at least w/respect to individuals. I think this is two-fold. Once we get past the next month and if gold continues higher ST you'll eventually see the shares catch up with a vengenece. People have to believe that prices above $450+ could be sustainable for a few years and you'll see fireworks. I'm not sure if we head straight up here or we have more sideways action, but this past friday was certainly nice.
>> I donno about the rest of you-- but this is surprising ... <<
I find the popular vote surprising as well. Wonder how much the markets getting goosed in the last 2 weeks had to do with overall sentiment. I don't think this is a reflection on Bush as much as I do think what a poor choice Kerry was for the Dems as the nominee. I think Bush is absolutely terrible. But I had a hard time rallying around Kerry. Young voters better hope that we don't have a flare up in another country lest a draft get imposed. Wonder how many young people voted.
Very nice breakout on GERN above 200 dma. Now I'd like to see some heavier volume and we might just get a very tasty short squeeze. Not sure what the shorts were thinking with this one.
GERN and STEM up AH on that news most likely. Funny how the FBI waits till a few days prior to election to get started. It was pretty obvious the bidding process was flawed from the beginning. This should have been investigated some time ago.
Have a pretty big position in GERN curently. Contrary to what the shorts believe I think it can go up despite a Bush victory. A close over $8 should get the short covering process rolling in earnest. If that happens to coincide w/passage of Prop 71 watch out shorts.
OT - STEM cell plays. If you look at GERN it's the only one that's shortable for many folks due to it's price (ASTM, STEM, GERN). Also, looking at a 1 and 2 year chart it probably is suffering from the biggest overhang and the largest amount of tax-loss selling vs it's peers. It should be leading vs lagging it's peers.
As far as I know, it has the most patents and is the leader within the sector and they are the closest to having an actual product for sale. Presentation today was informative. I also think it has the best cash position ST. Once we get through 8 on a closing basis I think it should do pretty well. This is mostly a ST play for me, but hoping to keep some LT. Breaking thru the 2 year downtrend line yesterday I was hoping for better support in the 7.3 area. Let's see where it closes.
Right now CA prop 71 looks like it'll pass which should give a boost to the sector. I think it's even money right now on Kerry which would give a secondary boost to the sector. National polls don't matter much. Kerry is doing well in swing states for the most part.
Do you see any fundamental reasons for such a move or is all of your analysis technical in nature?
Too many weak shorts?
*** Gold post **** Looks like RANGY is finally breaking out. TA looks very impressive. Trading under NAV. One of the few gold laggards I feel comfortable adding here.
*** Gold post *** Kaplan: He may be proven correct again, but if so it's mostly because the EU is now manipulating it's currency just like Japan and China. At 1.30 level, the EU cried uncle. Ever since then gold has been range bound. Looking at the 20 year chart of gold consolidation in this area certainly is no surprise. However, when you consider the long term fundamentals such as our fiscal and trade deficits how can gold not go substantially higher? Kaplans arguments for the most part could easily be applied at 500, 600 or 700. There is not a single reason given why this should be a "fair" value for gold vs higher levels. Historically speaking the last thing you want to do is follow the central banks. In the past they have always been sellers near the bottom and buyers near the top. I wonder what some of the English think of their CB selling when gold was sub $300? I think gold will breakout to new highs within 6 months or less, probably much sooner. The level of intervention in the markets right now is downright scary, but it should subside once we get past the election. When we finally do go to new highs people like Kaplan will be left in the dust. One or two more pullbacks prior to new highs? Wouldn't surprise me at all, but I'm going to keep a core holding since I suspect that this bull will leave most of the traders wishing they held.
I was buying today again, but laggards such as RANGY which look good to me from both an FA and TA pespective. Given the near term gains in most PMs buyers have to be very picky.
Here is the breakdown of the NAV. Appears correct, but I've only recently been an investor (since 2.01). Others may know far more about the ins/outs.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600590535&tid=rangy&sid...
I've also seen this NAV confirmed in a separate mining web article (about 3 weeks old).
Any opinions on RANGY here as a laggard? From FA perspective it would appear NAV is around 4+. From a TA perspective volume as been very heavy of late. It's still near it's lows and it's about to break above it's 1 year down trend line. Have a decent size position already. Would go larger, but due to small size and relatively obscure financials I'm reluctant to take a bigger position. Any insight would be appreciated. It's certainly not a core holding for me. I hold many other positions in the PM sector that are much larger. But relative to where these stocks are now I feel relatively safe adding RANGY here at 2.07 vs a WHT at 3.15.
With tax loss selling it can obviously go lower. Where is your next buy point? You in 1/4 position, 1/2 of what you want? I will listen to the CC since I trust your judgement. However, I'm very leary of their books and their management. But who knows, things change. Will let you know if I take a position.
Right now fairly long gold stocks, short the Naz and short JCP (TA and FA reasons).
Doesn't seem like your style to play w/something that has so much leverage. What leads you to believe that they'll survive if the economy starts to dip again in '05?
I have not listened to the CC and have not followed them for about a year, FWIW.
Do you happen to have the stockcharts.com symbol for the Rupee handy?
FWIW, HUI and XAU I don't think are too valuable here given the news surrounding NEM. GOX seems to be a better gauge of sector health right now.
Gold in YEN is looking interesting here for those who haven't seen it in a while:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD:$XJY,uu[h,a]waclyiay[df][p][vc60][iLl14!La8,17,9]&....
Been reviewing a number of charts tonight I think the IT move in gold is pretty well established here, but ST is anyone's guess due to the level of intervention, price of oil and the degree to which the gold shares are ahead of the metal.
Thanks (eom)
Where can you find out the open positions for these contracts? I know the CBOE has a good link for all options outstanding.
I read the board since there are some good observations from time to time, but I'm certainly not trying to convince any of the day-trading longs. What intervention? China has a peg, Japan an artificial one and it wouldn't surprise me to find out the EU has been interventing over the past year. Plenty of articles from numerous sources detailing the extent of it all. Just because the Dollar has fallen doesn't mean there has been no intervention. Do you think Greenspan freely let the Naz fall from 5000? They controlled the rate of decent as best they could. Same thing with the Dollar. Despite the last two years of devaluation the trade balance is actually worse. Most are complete oblivious to this huge threat to the markets and our economy. A little fall is fine, but what is required to bring the trade balance back into alignment is beyond most people's comprehension.
As always you have the descipline to stick to your plan. Congrats. I would get way too nervous holding most of the stocks you hold overnight on a regular basis, but you seem to do quite well doing so. In the end, you have to be able to sleep at night.
Jobs number tomorrow >> about 180 to 200K, while the "consensus" is 125 K <<
According to Briefing consensus is 150K which is laughable considering the "economic recovery" we're in. Agree we could get 200K since we need 150K according to most statistics just to stay even with population growth. If we get 200K the market may rally strong, but it really shouldn't get that excited imho unless we get 250K plus and the prior months get revised up. Agree with Roach who cites numerous example of how this recovery in jobs is VERY LACKLUSTER w/respect to past recoveries. We're several MILLION jobs down from past recoveries. Ok, so maybe we beat the number tomorrow by 50 or even 100K. Big deal. Economy still heading for the crapper in 2005 and beyond.
Markets only being held up through massive currency intervention currently. Were it not for Japan, China and now probably the EU we'd be seeing new lows on the Dollar index and a mass exodus out of our markets ala '87. May still happen this fall, but I'm guessing the CB's will control the rate of decent if we start to head down again and they can't even generate "fake" jobs.
Given how low the bar has been set for tomorrow the markets should be able to rally (or at least lessen the INTC news) when we "beat" the number, but if not could get interesting for gold and those who are short. Don't take this as a rant towards yourself, but rather the system that's way too focused on the "beat the number" game.
FWIW, not short this market, but have some gold and some cash.