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Bourbon,
You stated "Fartstain just trying to get a target to launch a short attack against, but Dr. Missling...".
I actually think he and his buddies used today's drop/swipe to cover their short positions. Let's see if the borrow rate changes in the next day or two. Currently at 25%.
Don't you mean piranhas?
So that explains the drop.
Someone wanted 12000 shares for 5.83 (at the TA bottom?)
Funny! We would drop to $2 and make play toe seem like he was clairvoyant.
Wow it took only 2100 shares to drop from 5.90 to 5.81.
I think the patent news should come out right about now.
It would be interesting to know what companies were represented in the photo op. That way we can track them and ascertain if their meeting with POTUS has helped with their respective drug trials/programs.
I'm due back a call from IR by end of day regarding lack of PR on recent patent allowance.
Me thinks PR on patent will be later day before market close, otherwise I'm real curious how they are going to spin it. They can't deny it. They can't argue that the last allowance was PR within 24 of allowance. What is the difference this time? NDA? I think not. It's only logical it comes out today before closing bell.
R&D up 1.4m (from 1.1m to 2.5) AND R&D incentive income up 2m (from zero to 2m). If I recall the MJFF grant was to be paid out as progress is made. Also stated all 3 trials to begin this year (AD, Parkinson and Rett).
Nice volume and strength the last few 10 minutes.
I'm thinking the same thing. I think others may have also called and now they know we know, so perhaps a PR is coming. On the other hand, they may have someone affiliated with the company reading the boards so they should know we know.
Another tight trading range on low volume. It feels like this is just waiting to pop.
Can we close up 5 days in a row?
I called IR and inquired about a lack PR on the recent patent allowance. I mentioned in previous allowances a PR was issued within 24 hours and it seems odd a PR wasn't issued for the latest and more significant allowance. They said they will get back to me by COB tomorrow.
Yesterday for most of the late afternoon there was a 15k share bid sitting at 6.10. That held the stock above 6.10. Today (so far) it hasn't appeared.
No patent news yet? As someone already speculated maybe (just maybe) we are in a quiet period.
If a BP wanted to partner with us for an indication they would feel much better (and add more to the kitty) if a patent was in place to secure "no competition". So perhaps, a pre-deal was made and with the condition of the patent plus approval we will then begin serious NDA discussions. This would fit into Missling's statement at the SH meeting that no formal discussions are taking place. It's not formal until the patent plus is secured. Pure connection but why not?
So many of you are so concerned with the daily price movements. Relax.
You guys remind me of a story about a young bull and old bull walking down the road. They come upon a fence and they both peer over it and hundreds of cows. The young bull says let's jump the fence and get us a cow. The old bull replies let's walk around and get them all. Patience is the name of the game.
This must be the slowest of days. Only 7,073 shares traded in 14 minutes.
40% voted against. It passed. Save your energy until next year. Live with it or sell. Two choices. Making a third choice is an option you only subscribe to, so do all us a favor and complain to your pillow.
Question - What happen to KITE, could it influence the EMA on the upcoming filing for ADXS?
Perfect! Maybe a PR on the start of a trial and "Oh by the way" we received the patent for Anavex plus.
Today's trading and volume looks like someone wants in big ahead of patent PR. Will it come at eod?
15k bid sitting at 6.10.
Watching the bid/ask is interesting. There were several markets (computer orders?) at the 6.08 bid and all at 100 shares. On the offer there were several offers at 6.10 ask at 100 shares and one for 1,000 shares. When the 1,000 shares was hit for 100 all the other market orders went away.
The bid jumped to 6.09 and the only offer remaining was the original 1,000 shares (and now at 500).
It seems like most of the orders are computers. If so, I speculate once news hit, the computer offers will die down
Ok I bought 1k trading shares at 5.90. I think 6.00-6.05 will hold and we hit 6.20 by end of day and close anywhere between 6.05 and 6.20.
I expected patent news by today, maybe tomorrow. If so, I think we fight our way out of the 6.20-6.29 range.
DJ realtime news says " ETF's that focus on biotechnology are continuing their selling, which began after the House passed its version of a healthcare bill late Thursday."
Nice block of 18,482 at the open at 6.09
I think it's a bid deal especially in the eyes of BP. Our worth is now more and soon to be reflected in share price (hopefully).
All CEOs should stand together and petition the SEC to end short sales, naked short sales and HFT!
Just imagine if you could short your neighbors house. Sell it now and then in a month set it on fire and buy it back at a huge discount. Same thing is happening with stocks. With stocks it's legal to set them on fire.
So IMO, CEOs can do something to help share price.
I could see conditional approval with further testing to substantiate the Aussie trial. Why not? It has been proven safe and it appears efficacy is there enough to warrant conditional approval. Perhaps that is something Fadiran is working on.
May 2nd from Insider Fiancial
While the shorts continue their in-vein (perhaps this was AF was tweeting about) efforts to beat down on Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (NASDAQ:AVXL), the company continues to hold it’s own in the markets. At last count, Anavex traded for a little over $5.82 (pre market on Tuesday), representing a close to 45% premium on the company’s year open price.
The company just announced what we see as major news, and we’re going to use this news as an excuse to take another look at Anavex, its near term catalysts and – on the back of the recent announcement – see how the latest news plays into our thesis.
Before we get into the latest action, then, let’s quickly bring newer readers up to speed. This one’s a development stage biotech and its primary focus is on neurodegenerative and CNS conditions. The lead indication (we’ll get to this in more detail shortly) is Alzheimer’s – a notoriously difficult to treat population – and the lead asset with which it’s targeting said population is called ANAVEX-273.
The core of the company’s science is something called the sigma-1 receptor and the last time we covered this stock we tried to make a case as to why this receptor is potentially so important. In short, and to avoid repetition, our argument was rooted in the idea that neurodegenerative conditions (Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s etc.) have a common initiation point. From these initiation points, various inputs contribute to them resulting in different diseases, but there’s a shared root that sets the ball rolling. If this is the case, the targeting of this initiation point could be the key to unlocking treatments across this spectrum of conditions.
Anavex believes that the sigma-1 receptor is this common point.
That sounds too good to be true, and we think this is why the company’s price is currently under-representative of its true value. There’s a large body of evidence (and not just that collected by Anavex) that supports this common initiation point theory, however, and Anavex is building on this evidence with its lead assets.
So, the lead – as mentioned – is 273 in Alzheimer’s, and the latest data derives from a successful phase IIa investigation in this population. Again, when this data hit press, the shorts attacked it as insufficient to warrant advance; this is nonsense. The drug will move into phase III and the study will try to replicate the clinical benefit seen across a large patient population of Alzheimer’s sufferers. If it’s successful, and the data we’ve seen so far suggests there’s a good chance of success in expansion, then the stock will run. Not just because of the Alzheimer’s indication, but because a clinical benefit readout in Alzheimer’s would hint strongly at a clinical benefit in Parkinson’s, and further, will support the sigma-1 single initiation theory.
Which brings us to the latest news.
Anavex just announced the hiring of Dr. Emmanuel O. Fadiran, RPh, PhD, as Senior Vice President of Regulatory Affairs. On its own, this would be good news. It suggests the company feels it’s going to be in a position to put 273 toe to toe with the FDA at a point not too far down the line, and this reinforces the company’s confidence in a successful pivotal. What makes it even better news, however, is the fact that Dr. Fadiran has 24 years of regulatory experience within the FDA. He’s personally dealt with, and made recommendations on, hundreds of NDAs, INDs, BLAs etc., and to have him guiding the Anavex team on its path to commercialization with 273, and the company’s deeper pipeline, is invaluable.
So what’s next?
We’re looking for any insight into the initiation of a pivotal study as driving this one near term. If the company can get a protocol in place with the FDA, and can execute according to this protocol to get things moving in phase III, it’s going to start attracting speculative volume and gaining strength accordingly.
Let's see what they say about the patent once gets released.
It is a nice recap and 10 months old. I hope now that the patent is secure we should be flowing with news ( Rett trial starting, AD trial moving, how things will accelerate with 21st Century Cures and manufacturing and distribution arrangements/partner). It's not too early to talk about manufacturing and distribution if we are truly less than a year for approval (Rett).
The way I see it, not having patent secure is the main reason why it appears the progress has been "slow". Having less than 10 ee's means most work is done by others and Missling can't juggle it all. Fadiran is in a position to help move the approval process a lot quicker through the regulatory process.
We should have a great rest of year appreciation if news continue (start) to flow. Let's see how long it takes before we see price targets > $25. I believe securing the patent is a major catalyst and once the official PR comes out we will see revised price targets but not before we see double digits ( $10 by end of month). Explosive week coming???
I believe it was 25%. I don't doubt it will get approved. I just don't think the adoption rate will be all that quick. My plan is to sell once it gets approved and then renter when it drops. I think once we start seeing revenue the company will be bought. The NSS will be profitable but not with the current cost structure. There is a lot of expenses keeping the really bad CEO. You eliminate all that corporate overhead and you will achieve decent margins.
Thanks for the tips. Let's see if I can pull the trigger. :)
I like the charts (wish I could trade). Any time I try to trade I just hold more shares because I can't sell. I think today's move is in anticipation of the patent news. I think once it is Officially announced in a PR the price will pop. After the next pop I'm going to try and trade. I believe TA is at its best a few days after news driven movement. It always seems to settle afterwards. I'm going to try and trade 2 blocks of 500 shares. I own 20k so I can risk trading 2 blocks of 500. If it pops again I will have 19k shares to enjoy the ride.
Do you suppose the share grab was done quickly since there may be some really big news coming?
I'm thinking we need to reach a volume of 400k today to get pass 6.00. We are at 350k at 3:50. 10 minutes and 50k shares to go.
It sure seems like it's about to blow. They came putting up 100 shares and they get taken.
Let's see if we can blow by $6.00. There is at least 20k on the over in queue.
I do follow closely however, I'm not an expert on patent filings. I admit I thought the cases were real and thus asked how can they test without a trial? Investor seems to be well versed on this subject so I'm taking his point of view in that they were provided as examples. In any event, it looks like we are heading to $6 by market close.
It doesn't look like there is a rush to buy or sell. There have been many trades that are over one minute separation between the trades. Although the bias is to the buy side. I'm guessing the pace will pick up towards the last 20 minutes. Another large MOC order today in anticipation of new next week?
Perhaps they want to add (maybe not for their respective funds) but for some of their private accounts
Option activity: although volume is low, it is interesting that the 7.5 calls are popular on most of the timeframes.
The share price is moving up nice and slow. Those 5k chunks at various prices are taken out slowly.
Prelude to afternoon news or Monday pre market?
Patent news after the bell would be nice so the naysayers can try and cover after the bell. If so, we can see a nice pop above $6 AH.
In any event, we should here something next week.
Maybe it's Adage, Fidelity and Broadfin keeping it down?
Agreed. That is the most troubling. Sitting on the data. I think he was waiting for two quick conversions and then PR with oh btw we had reverts.
His decision making is poor at best. Unfortunately, I still own 5,300 shares.
At this point, I'm just going to hang on and hope for the best.